Post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding

Civil wars are the most common type of large scale violent conflict. They are long, brutal and continue to harm societies long after the shooting stops. Post-conflict countries face extraordinary challenges with respect to development and security. In this paper we examine how countries can recover economically from these devastating conflicts and how international interventions can help to build lasting peace. We revisit the aid and growth debate and confirm that aid does not increase growth in general. However, we find that countries experience increased growth after the end of the war and that aid helps to make the most of this peace dividend. However, aid is only growth enhancing when the violence has stopped, in violent post-war societies aid has no growth enhancing effect. We also find that good governance is robustly correlated with growth, however we cannot confirm that aid increases growth conditional on good policies. We examine various aspects of aid and governance by disaggregating the aid and governance variables. Our analysis does not provide a clear picture of which types of aid and policy should be prioritized. We find little evidence for a growth enhancing effect of UN missions and suggest that case studies may provide better insight into the relationship between security guarantees and economic stabilization.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Recurrent sores by ill-fitting dentures and intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma in smokers

Objectives: To examine whether denture use and recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures are associated with intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma (IO-SCC) in individuals exposed to tobacco. Methods: We conducted a hospital-based case-control study. The study population comprised 124 patients with IO-SCC and the same number of controls (individually paired according to gender and age) recruited from outpatient units of the same hospital. Conditional logistic regression analysis assessed the effect of denture use and recurrent oral sores by ill-fitting dentures, adjusted by covariates on the lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, socioeconomic standings, and dietary patterns. Results: The use of dentures showed no association with IO-SCC [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.40, 95 percent confidence interval 0.51-3.87, P = 0.513] in an assessment controlled by socioeconomic position, lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, and dietary patterns. However, the report of recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures showed significant association with the disease (adjusted OR 4.58, 95 percent confidence interval 1.52-13.76, P = 0.007). Conclusions: The association between recurrent oral sores caused by ill-fitting dentures and squamous cell carcinoma of the mouth in smokers is in agreement with the hypothesis that the chronic physical irritation of oral mucosa contributes to the topical carcinogenic effect of tobacco, which must be taken into careful consideration in the planning of dental services for adults and the elderly.

Risks Associated With Tendinitis: Effects From Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Psychological Status Among Brazilian Workers

Background Self-reported tendinitis/tenosynovitis was evaluated by gender, age group, skin color, family income, and educational and psychological status. Methods The study was carried out in a representative sample of formally contracted Brazilian workers from a household survey. A total of 54,660 participants were included. Occupations were stratified according to estimated prevalences of self-reported injuries. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed, and all variables were analyzed in two occupational groups. Results The overall prevalence rate of tendinitis/tenosynovitis was 3.1%: 5.5% in high-prevalence occupations (n=10,726); and 2.5% in low-prevalence occupations (n=43,934). White female workers between the ages of 45 and 64 years and at a higher socioeconomic level were more likely to report tendinitis/tenosynovitis regardless of their occupational category. An adjusted OR = 3.59 [95% CI: 3.15-4.09] was found between tendinitis/tenosynovitis and psychological status. Conclusion Among formally contracted Brazilian workers, higher income can imply greater physical and psychological demands that, regardless of occupational stratum, increase the risk of tendinitis/tenosynovitis. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:72-79, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Health in Brazil 2 Maternal and child health in Brazil: progress and challenges

In the past three decades, Brazil has undergone rapid changes in major social determinants of health and in the organisation of health services. In this report, we examine how these changes have affected indicators of maternal health, child health, and child nutrition. We use data from vital statistics, population censuses, demographic and health surveys, and published reports. In the past three decades, infant mortality rates have reduced substantially, decreasing by 5.5% a year in the 1980s and 1990s, and by 4.4% a year since 2000 to reach 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2008. Neonatal deaths account for 68% of infant deaths. Stunting prevalence among children younger than 5 years decreased from 37% in 1974-75 to 7% in 2006-07. Regional differences in stunting and child mortality also decreased. Access to most maternal-health and child-health interventions increased sharply to almost universal coverage, and regional and socioeconomic inequalities in access to such interventions were notably reduced. The median duration of breastfeeding increased from 2.5 months in the 1970s to 14 months by 2006-07. Official statistics show stable maternal mortality ratios during the past 10 years, but modelled data indicate a yearly decrease of 4%, a trend which might not have been noticeable in official reports because of improvements in death registration and the increased number of investigations into deaths of women of reproductive age. The reasons behind Brazil`s progress include: socioeconomic and demographic changes (economic growth, reduction in income disparities between the poorest and wealthiest populations, urbanisation, improved education of women, and decreased fertility rates), interventions outside the health sector (a conditional cash transfer programme and improvements in water and sanitation), vertical health programmes in the 1980s (promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunisations), creation of a tax-funded national health service in 1988 (coverage of which expanded to reach the poorest areas of the country through the Family Health Program in the mid-1990s); and implementation of many national and state-wide programmes to improve child health and child nutrition and, to a lesser extent, to promote women`s health. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain, including overmedicalisation of childbirth (nearly 50% of babies are delivered by caesarean section), maternal deaths caused by illegal abortions, and a high frequency of preterm deliveries.

Spider-fed bromeliads: seasonal and interspecific variation in plant performance

Background and Aims Several animals that live on bromeliads can contribute to plant nutrition through nitrogen provisioning (digestive mutualism). The bromeliad-living spider Psecas chapoda (Salticidae) inhabits and breeds on Bromelia balansae in regions of South America, but in specific regions can also appear on Ananas comosus (pineapple) plantations and Aechmea distichantha. Methods Using isotopic and physiological methods in greenhouse experiments, the role of labelled ((15)N) spider faeces and Drosophila melanogaster flies in the nutrition and growth of each host plant was evaluated, as well as seasonal variation in the importance of this digestive mutualism. Key Results Spiders contributed 0.6 +/- 0.2% (mean +/- s.e.; dry season) to 2.7 +/- 1% (wet season) to the total nitrogen in B. balansae, 2.4 +/- 0.4% (dry) to 4.1 +/- 0.3% (wet) in An. comosus and 3.8 +/- 0.4% (dry) to 5 +/- 1% (wet) in Ae. distichantha. In contrast, flies did not contribute to the nutrition of these bromeliads. Chlorophylls and carotenoid concentrations did not differ among treatments. Plants that received faeces had higher soluble protein concentrations and leaf growth (RGR) only during the wet season. Conclusions These results indicate that the mutualism between spiders and bromeliads is seasonally restricted, generating a conditional outcome. There was interspecific variation in nutrient uptake, probably related to each species` performance and photosynthetic pathways. Whereas B. balansae seems to use nitrogen for growth, Ae. distichantha apparently stores nitrogen for stressful nutritional conditions. Bromeliads absorbed more nitrogen coming from spider faeces than from flies, reinforcing the beneficial role played by predators in these digestive mutualisms.

Nop53p interacts with 5.8S rRNA co-transcriptionally, and regulates processing of pre-rRNA by the exosome

In eukaryotes, pre-rRNA processing depends on a large number of nonribosomal trans-acting factors that form intriguingly organized complexes. One of the early stages of pre-rRNA processing includes formation of the two intermediate complexes pre-40S and pre-60S, which then form the mature ribosome subunits. Each of these complexes contains specific pre-rRNAs, ribosomal proteins and processing factors. The yeast nucleolar protein Nop53p has previously been identified in the pre-60S complex and shown to affect pre-rRNA processing by directly binding to 5.8S rRNA, and to interact with Nop17p and Nip7p, which are also involved in this process. Here we show that Nop53p binds 5.8S rRNA co-transcriptionally through its N-terminal region, and that this protein portion can also partially complement growth of the conditional mutant strain Delta nop53/GAL:NOP53. Nop53p interacts with Rrp6p and activates the exosome in vitro. These results indicate that Nop53p may recruit the exosome to 7S pre-rRNA for processing. Consistent with this observation and similar to the observed in exosome mutants, depletion of Nop53p leads to accumulation of polyadenylated pre-rRNAs.

Notch signaling controls the balance of ciliated and secretory cell fates in developing airways

Although there is accumulated evidence of a role for Notch in the developing lung, it is still unclear how disruption of Notch signaling affects lung progenitor cell fate and differentiation events in the airway epithelium. To address this issue, we inactivated Notch signaling conditionally in the endoderm using a Shh-Cre deleter mouse line and mice carrying floxed alleles of the Pofut1 gene, which encodes an O-fucosyltransferase essential for Notch-ligand binding. We also took the same conditional approach to inactivate expression of Rbpjk, which encodes the transcriptional effector of canonical Notch signaling. Strikingly, these mutants showed an almost identical lung phenotype characterized by an absence of secretory Clara cells without evidence of cell death, and showed airways populated essentially by ciliated cells, with an increase in neuroendocrine cells. This phenotype could be further replicated in cultured wild-type lungs by disrupting Notch signaling with a gamma-secretase inhibitor. Our data suggest that Notch acts when commitment to a ciliated or non-ciliated cell fate occurs in proximal progenitors, silencing the ciliated program in the cells that will continue to expand and differentiate into secretory cells. This mechanism may be crucial to define the balance of differentiated cell profiles in different generations of the developing airways. It might also be relevant to mediate the metaplastic changes in the respiratory epithelium that occur in pathological conditions, such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

A unified view on lifetime distributions arising from selection mechanisms

In this paper, we formulate a flexible density function from the selection mechanism viewpoint (see, for example, Bayarri and DeGroot (1992) and Arellano-Valle et al. (2006)) which possesses nice biological and physical interpretations. The new density function contains as special cases many models that have been proposed recently in the literature. In constructing this model, we assume that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has a general discrete distribution characterized by its probability generating function. This function has an important role in the selection procedure as well as in computing the conditional personal cure rate. Finally, we illustrate how various models can be deduced as special cases of the proposed model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing permutation properties through subpermutations

There has been great interest in deciding whether a combinatorial structure satisfies some property, or in estimating the value of some numerical function associated with this combinatorial structure, by considering only a randomly chosen substructure of sufficiently large, but constant size. These problems are called property testing and parameter testing, where a property or parameter is said to be testable if it can be estimated accurately in this way. The algorithmic appeal is evident, as, conditional on sampling, this leads to reliable constant-time randomized estimators. Our paper addresses property testing and parameter testing for permutations in a subpermutation perspective; more precisely, we investigate permutation properties and parameters that can be well approximated based on a randomly chosen subpermutation of much smaller size. In this context, we use a theory of convergence of permutation sequences developed by the present authors [C. Hoppen, Y. Kohayakawa, C.G. Moreira, R.M. Sampaio, Limits of permutation sequences through permutation regularity, Manuscript, 2010, 34pp.] to characterize testable permutation parameters along the lines of the work of Borgs et al. [C. Borgs, J. Chayes, L Lovasz, V.T. Sos, B. Szegedy, K. Vesztergombi, Graph limits and parameter testing, in: STOC`06: Proceedings of the 38th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, ACM, New York, 2006, pp. 261-270.] in the case of graphs. Moreover, we obtain a permutation result in the direction of a famous result of Alon and Shapira [N. Alon, A. Shapira, A characterization of the (natural) graph properties testable with one-sided error, SIAM J. Comput. 37 (6) (2008) 1703-1727.] stating that every hereditary graph property is testable. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generating segmented meshes from textured color images

This paper presents a new framework for generating triangular meshes from textured color images. The proposed framework combines a texture classification technique, called W-operator, with Imesh, a method originally conceived to generate simplicial meshes from gray scale images. An extension of W-operators to handle textured color images is proposed, which employs a combination of RGB and HSV channels and Sequential Floating Forward Search guided by mean conditional entropy criterion to extract features from the training data. The W-operator is built into the local error estimation used by Imesh to choose the mesh vertices. Furthermore, the W-operator also enables to assign a label to the triangles during the mesh construction, thus allowing to obtain a segmented mesh at the end of the process. The presented results show that the combination of W-operators with Imesh gives rise to a texture classification-based triangle mesh generation framework that outperforms pixel based methods. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1-39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen [Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343-365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33-53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655-661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff-Nielsen`s adjustment.

Leverage analysis for linear mixed models

We consider a generalized leverage matrix useful for the identification of influential units and observations in linear mixed models and show how a decomposition of this matrix may be employed to identify high leverage points for both the marginal fitted values and the random effect component of the conditional fitted values. We illustrate the different uses of the two components of the decomposition with a simulated example as well as with a real data set.