Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in aregion. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitorsunder situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the leastmarket share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while sheddingcostly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition thatmust shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets sothat the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitiveenvironment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

Behavioral assumptions and management ability

The paper explores the consequences that relying on different behavioral assumptions intraining managers may have on their future performance. We argue that training with anemphasis on the standard assumptions used in economics (rationality and self-interest) is goodfor technical posts but may also lead future managers to rely excessively on rational and explicitsafeguarding, crowding out instinctive relational heuristics and signaling a bad human type topotential partners. In contrast, human assumptions used in management theories, because oftheir diverse, implicit and even contradictory nature, do not conflict with the innate set ofcooperative tools and may provide a good training ground for such tools. We present tentativeconfirmatory evidence by examining how the weight given to behavioral assumptions in the corecourses of the top 100 business schools influences the average salaries of their MBA graduates.Controlling for the self-selected average quality of their students and some other schools characteristics, average salaries are seen to be significantly greater for schools whose core MBAcourses contain a higher proportion of management courses as opposed to courses based oneconomics or technical disciplines.

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae)

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae). Studies on Ceratitis capitata, a world fruit pest, can aid the implementation of control programs by determining the plants with higher vulnerability to attacks and plants able to sustain their population in areas of fly distribution. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of eight tropical fruits on the following biological and behavioral parameters of C. capitata: emergence percentage, life cycle duration, adult size, egg production, longevity, fecundity, egg viability, and oviposition acceptance. The fruits tested were: acerola (Malpighia glabra L.), cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.), star fruit (Averrhoa carambola L.), guava (Psidium guajava L.), soursop (Annona muricata L.), yellow mombin (Spondias mombin L.), Malay apple (Syzygium malaccense L.), and umbu (Spondias tuberosa L.). The biological parameters were obtained by rearing the recently hatched larvae on each of the fruit kinds. Acceptance of fruits for oviposition experiment was assessed using no-choice tests, as couples were exposed to two pieces of the same fruit. The best performances were obtained with guava, soursop, and star fruit. Larvae reared on cashew and acerola fruits had regular performances. No adults emerged from yellow mombin, Malay apple, or umbu. Fruit species did not affect adult longevity, female fecundity, or egg viability. Guava, soursop, and acerola were preferred for oviposition, followed by star fruit, Malay apple, cashew, and yellow mombin. Oviposition did not occur on umbu. In general, fruits with better larval development were also more accepted for oviposition.

Behavioral ecology of Heteragrion consors Hagen (Odonata, Megapodagrionidae): a shade-seek Atlantic forest damselfly

Behavioral ecology of Heteragrion consors Hagen (Odonata: Megapodagrionidae): a shade-seek Atlantic forest damselfly. The intensity of the inter and intra-sexual selection can affect male behavioral traits as territorial fidelity and aggressiveness allowing the existence of different strategies. However, its differential success could be affected by environmental - as the diel variation in temperature - and physiological constrains - as the variation in thermoregulatory abilities. In this context, we present a behavioral analysis of Heteragrion consors (Zygoptera, Megapodagrionidae) trying to characterize its mating system, diel activity pattern, temporal budget, territoriality and reproductive biology. These data were obtained based on field observations using the focal individual method and mark-recapture techniques in 120 m of a shaded Atlantic Forest stream in Brazil. The males of this species were territorial, varying in its local fidelity, while the females appear sporadically. Males were perched in the majority of the time, but were also observed in cleaning movements, longitudinal abdominal flexion, wing flexion and sperm transfer during perch. The males presented a perched thermoregulatory behavior related to an exothermic regulation. Foraging and agonistic interactions were rare, but dominate the other behavioral activities. Abdominal movements associated to long lasting copula pointed to the existence of sperm competition in this species. Males performed contact post-copulatory guarding of the females. These observations pointed to a non-resource mating system for this species.

Location models for airline hubs behaving as M/D/c queues

Models are presented for the optimal location of hubs in airline networks, that take into consideration the congestion effects. Hubs, which are the most congested airports, are modeled as M/D/c queuing systems, that is, Poisson arrivals, deterministic service time, and {\em c} servers. A formula is derived for the probability of a number of customers in the system, which is later used to propose a probabilistic constraint. This constraint limits the probability of {\em b} airplanes in queue, to be lesser than a value $\alpha$. Due to the computational complexity of the formulation. The model is solved using a meta-heuristic based on tabu search. Computational experience is presented.

Hierarchical location-allocation models for congested systems

In this paper we address the issue of locating hierarchical facilities in the presence of congestion. Two hierarchical models are presented, where lower level servers attend requests first, and then, some of the served customers are referred to higher level servers. In the first model, the objective is to find the minimum number of servers and theirlocations that will cover a given region with a distance or time standard. The second model is cast as a Maximal Covering Location formulation. A heuristic procedure is then presented together with computational experience. Finally, some extensions of these models that address other types of spatial configurations are offered.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Primate adult brain cell autotransplantation produces behavioral and biological recovery in 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine-induced parkinsonian St. Kitts monkeys.

The potential for "replacement cells" to restore function in Parkinson's disease has been widely reported over the past 3 decades, rejuvenating the central nervous system rather than just relieving symptoms. Most such experiments have used fetal or embryonic sources that may induce immunological rejection and generate ethical concerns. Autologous sources, in which the cells to be implanted are derived from recipients' own cells after reprogramming to stem cells, direct genetic modifications, or epigenetic modifications in culture, could eliminate many of these problems. In a previous study on autologous brain cell transplantation, we demonstrated that adult monkey brain cells, obtained from cortical biopsies and kept in culture for 7 weeks, exhibited potential as a method of brain repair after low doses of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) caused dopaminergic cell death. The present study exposed monkeys to higher MPTP doses to produce significant parkinsonism and behavioral impairments. Cerebral cortical cells were biopsied from the animals, held in culture for 7 weeks to create an autologous neural cell "ecosystem" and reimplanted bilaterally into the striatum of the same six donor monkeys. These cells expressed neuroectodermal and progenitor markers such as nestin, doublecortin, GFAP, neurofilament, and vimentin. Five to six months after reimplantation, histological analysis with the dye PKH67 and unbiased stereology showed that reimplanted cells survived, migrated bilaterally throughout the striatum, and seemed to exert a neurorestorative effect. More tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive neurons and significant behavioral improvement followed reimplantation of cultured autologous neural cells as a result of unknown trophic factors released by the grafts. J. Comp. Neurol. 522:2729-2740, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Retribution in a cheap-talk experiment

We use a two-person 3-stage game to investigate whether people chooseto punish or reward another player by sacrificing money to increase or decrease the other person's payoff. One player sends a message indicating an intended play, which is either favorable or unfavorable to the other player in the game. After the message, the sender and the receiver play a simultaneous 2x2 game. A deceptive message may be made, in an effort to induce the receiver to make a play favorable to the sender. Our focus is on whether receivers' rates of monetary sacrifice depend on the process and the perceived sender's intention,as is suggested by the literature on deception and proceduralsatisfaction. Models such as Rabin (1993), Sen (1997), and Charnessand Rabin (1999) also permit rates of sacrifice to be sensitive to the sender's perceived intention, while outcome-based models such as Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Bolton and Ockenfels (1997) predict otherwise. We find that deception substantially increases the punishment rate as a response to an action that is unfavorable to the receiver. We also find that a small but significant percentage of subjects choose to reward a favorable action choice made by the sender.

Estimating cross-industry cross-country models using benchmark industry characteristics

International industry data permits testing whether the industry-specific impact of cross-countrydifferences in institutions or policies is consistent with economic theory. Empirical implementationrequires specifying the industry characteristics that determine impact strength. Most of the literature has been using US proxies of the relevant industry characteristics. We show that usingindustry characteristics in a benchmark country as a proxy of the relevant industry characteristicscan result in an attenuation bias or an amplification bias. We also describe circumstances allowingfor an alternative approach that yields consistent estimates. As an application, we reexamine theinfluential conjecture that financial development facilitates the reallocation of capital from decliningto expanding industries.

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Evidence of altered antioxidant systems and signs of elevated oxidative stress are reported in peripheral tissue and brain of schizophrenic patients, including low levels of glutathione (GSH), a major thiol antioxidant and redox buffer. Functional and genetic data indicate that an impaired regulation of GSH synthesis is a vulnerability factor for the disease. Impaired GSH synthesis from a genetic origin combined with environmental risk factors generating oxidative stress (e.g., malnutrition, exposure to toxins, maternai infection and diabetes, obstetrical complications, and psychological stress) could lead to redox dysregulation. This could subsequently perturb normal brain development and maturation with delayed functional consequences emerging in early adulthood. Depending on the nature and the time of occurrence of the environmental insults, the structural and functional delayed consequences could vary, giving rise to various endophenotypes. The use of animal models of GSH deficit represents a valuable approach to investigate how interactions between genetic and environmental factors lead to the emergence of pathologies found in the disease. Moreover, these models of GSH can be useful to investigate links between schizophrenia and comorbid somatic disorders, as dysregulation of the GSH system and elevated oxidative stress are also found in cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. This chapter reviews pharmacological and genetic rodent models of GSH synthesis dysregulation used to address some of the aforementioned issues. Up to date, these models revealed that GSH deficits lead to morphological, physiological, and behavioral alterations that are quite analogous to pathologies observed in patients. This includes hypofunction of NMDA receptors, alteration of dopamine neurotransmission, anomalies in parvalbumin-immunoreactive fast-spiking interneurons, and reduced myelination. In addition, a GSH deficit affects the brain in a region-specific manner, the anterior cingulate cortex and the ventral hippocampus being the most vulnerable regions investigated. Interestingly, a GSH deficit during a limited period of postnatal development is sufficient to have long-lasting consequences on the integrity of PV-IR interneurons in the anterior cingulate cortex and impairs cognitive functions in adulthood. Finally, these animal models of GSH deficit display behavioral impairments that could be related to schizophrenia. Altogether, current data strongly support a contributing role of a redox dysregulation on the development of pathologies associated with the illness and demonstrate the usefulness of these models to better understand the biological mechanisms leading to schizophrenia.