Methods in wind power prediction & forecasting

Globally on-shore wind power has seen considerable growth in all grid systems. In the coming decade off-shore wind power is also expected to expand rapidly. Wind power is variable and intermittent over various time scales because it is weather dependent. Therefore wind power integration into traditional grids needs additional power system and electricity market planning and management for system balancing. This extra system balancing means that there is additional system costs associated with wind power assimilation. Wind power forecasting and prediction methods are used by system operators to plan unit commitment, scheduling and dispatch and by electricity traders and wind farm owners to maximize profit. Accurate wind power forecasting and prediction has numerous challenges. This paper presents a study of the existing and possible future methods used in wind power forecasting and prediction for both on-shore and off-shore wind farms.

Intelligent demand response electric water heating to integrate wind power in Ireland

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.

Stellar jitter from variable gravitational redshift: implications for radial velocity confirmation of habitable exoplanets

A variation of gravitational redshift, arising from stellar radius fluctuations, will introduce astrophysical noise into radial velocity measurements by shifting the centroid of the observed spectral lines. Shifting the centroid does not necessarily introduce line asymmetries. This is fundamentally different from other types of stellar jitter so far identified, which do result from line asymmetries. Furthermore, only a very small change in stellar radius, ˜0.01 per cent, is necessary to generate a gravitational redshift variation large enough to mask or mimic an Earth-twin. We explore possible mechanisms for stellar radius fluctuations in low-mass stars. Convective inhibition due to varying magnetic field strengths and the Wilson depression of starspots are both found to induce substantial gravitational redshift variations. Finally, we investigate a possible method for monitoring/correcting this newly identified potential source of jitter and comment on its impact for future exoplanet searches.

The velocity distribution of solar photospheric magnetic bright points.

We use high spatial resolution observations and numerical simulations to study the velocity distribution of solar photospheric magnetic bright points. The observations were obtained with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope, while the numerical simulations were undertaken with the MURaM code for average magnetic fields of 200 G and 400 G. We implemented an automated bright point detection and tracking algorithm on the data set and studied the subsequent velocity characteristics of over 6000 structures, finding an average velocity of approximately 1 km s(-1), with maximum values of 7 km s(-1). Furthermore, merging magnetic bright points were found to have considerably higher velocities, and significantly longer lifetimes, than isolated structures. By implementing a new and novel technique, we were able to estimate the background magnetic flux of our observational data, which is consistent with a field strength of 400 G.

Distance limits to intermediate- and high-velocity clouds

We present optical spectra of 403 stars and quasi-stellar objects in order to obtain distance limits towards intermediate- and high-velocity clouds (IHVCs), including new Fibre-fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph (FEROS) observations plus archival ELODIE, FEROS, High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES) and Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) data. The non-detection of Ca II K interstellar (IS) absorption at a velocity of −130 to −60 km s−1 towards HDE 248894 (d ∼ 3 kpc) and HDE 256725 (d ∼ 8 kpc) in data at signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) > 450 provides a new firm lower distance limit of 8 kpc for the anti-centre shell HVC. Similarly, the non-detection of Ca II K IS absorption towards HD 86248 at S/N ∼ 500 places a lower distance limit of 7.6 kpc for Complex EP, unsurprising since this feature is probably related to the Magellanic System. The lack of detection of Na I D at S/N = 35 towards Mrk 595 puts an improved upper limit for the Na I column density of log (NNaD <) 10.95 cm−2 towards this part of the Cohen Stream where Ca II was detected by Wakker et al. Absorption at ∼ −40 km s−1 is detected in Na I D towards the Galactic star PG 0039+049 at S/N = 75, placing a firm upper distance limit of 1 kpc for the intermediate-velocity cloud south (IVS), where a tentative detection had previously been obtained by Centurion et al. Ca ´ II K and Na I D absorption is detected at −53 km s−1 towards HD 93521, which confirms the upper distance limit of 2.4 kpc for part of the IV arch complex obtained using the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) data by Danly. Towards HD 216411 in Complex H a non-detection in Na D towards gas with log(NH I) = 20.69 cm−2 puts a lower distance limit of 6.6 kpc towards this HVC complex. Additionally, Na I D absorption is detected at −43.7 km s−1 in the star HD 218915 at a distance of 5.0 kpc in gas in the same region of the sky as Complex H. Finally, the Na I/Ca II and Ca II/H I ratios of the current sample are found to lie in the range observed for previous studies of IHVCs.

Integrating wind power using intelligent electric water heating

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is to instantaneously meet demand, to operate to standards and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to bene?t end-users ?nancially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper a number of continuous direct load control demand response based electric water heating algorithms are modelled to test the effectiveness of wholesale electricity market signals to study the system bene?ts. The results are compared and contrasted to determine which control algorithm showed the best potential for energy savings, system marginal price savings and wind integration.

Study of ground-state titanium ion velocity distributions in laser-produced plasma plumes

The velocity distribution of ground-state titanium ions within a low-temperature plasma resulting from the laser ablation of a titanium target has been investigated. A KrF excimer laser was focused onto the target at moderate fluences (

Semi-empirical methods for determining the efflux velocity from a ship's propeller

The present study proposed the semi-empirical methods for determining the efflux velocity from a ship's propeller. Ryan [1] defined the efflux velocity as the maximum velocity taken from a time-averaged velocity distribution along the initial propeller plane. The Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were used to acquire the efflux velocity from the two propellers with different geometrical characteristics. The LDA and CFD results were compared in order to investigate the equation derived from the axial momentum theory. The study confirmed the validation of the axial momentum theory and its linear relationship between the efflux velocity and the multiplication of the rotational speed, propeller diameter and the square root of thrust coefficient. The linear relationship of these two terms is connected by an efflux coefficient and the value of this efflux coefficient reduced when the blade number increased.

The empirical metallicity dependence of the mass-loss rate of O- and early B-type stars

We present a comprehensive study of the observational dependence of the mass-loss rate in stationary stellar winds of hot massive stars on the metal content of their atmospheres. The metal content of stars in the Magellanic Clouds is discussed, and a critical assessment is given of state-of-the-art mass-loss determinations of OB stars in these two satellite systems and the Milky-Way. Assuming a power-law dependence of mass loss on metal content,. M. Z(m), and adopting a theoretical relation between the terminal flow velocity and metal content, v(infinity). Z(0.13) (Leitherer et al. 1992, ApJ, 401, 596), we find m = 0.83 +/- 0.16 for non-clumped outflows from an analysis of the wind momentum luminosity relation (WLR) for stars more luminous than 105.2 L circle dot. Within the errors, this result is in agreement with the prediction m = 0.69 +/- 0.10 by Vink et al. (2001, A& A, 369, 574). Absolute empirical values for the mass loss, based on Ha and ultraviolet (UV) wind lines, are found to be a factor of two higher than predictions in this high luminosity regime. If this difference is attributed to inhomogeneities in the wind, and this clumping does not impact the predictions, this would imply that luminous O and early-B stars have clumping factors in their Ha and UV line forming regions of about a factor of four. For lower luminosity stars, the winds are so weak that their strengths can generally no longer be derived from optical spectral lines (essentially Ha) and one must currently rely on the analysis of UV lines. We confirm that in this low-luminosity domain the observed Galactic WLR is found to be much steeper than expected from theory (although the specific sample is rather small), leading to a discrepancy between UV mass-loss rates and the predictions by a factor 100 at luminosities of L similar to 10(4.75) L circle dot, the origin of which is unknown. We emphasize that even if the current mass-loss rates of hot luminous stars would turn out to be overestimated as a result of wind clumping, but the degree of clumping would be rather independent of metallicity, the scalings derived in this study are expected to remain correct.

The VLT-FLAMES survey of massive stars: wind properties and evolution of hot massive stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud

We have studied the optical spectra of a sample of 28 O- and early B-type stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud, 22 of which are associated with the young star forming region N11. Our observations sample the central associations of LH9 and LH10, and the surrounding regions. Stellar parameters are determined using an automated fitting method ( Mokiem et al. 2005), which combines the stellar atmosphere code fastwind ( Puls et al. 2005) with the genetic algorithm based optimisation routine PIKAIA ( Charbonneau 1995). We derive an age of 7.0 +/- 1.0 and 3.0 +/- 1.0 Myr for LH9 and LH10, respectively. The age difference and relative distance of the associations are consistent with a sequential star formation scenario in which stellar activity in LH9 triggered the formation of LH10. Our sample contains four stars of spectral type O2. From helium and hydrogen line fitting we find the hottest three of these stars to be similar to 49- 54 kK ( compared to similar to 45- 46 kK for O3 stars). Detailed determination of the helium mass fraction reveals that the masses of helium enriched dwarfs and giants derived in our spectroscopic analysis are systematically lower than those implied by non-rotating evolutionary tracks. We interpret this as evidence for efficient rotationally enhanced mixing leading to the surfacing of primary helium and to an increase of the stellar luminosity. This result is consistent with findings for SMC stars by Mokiem et al. ( 2006). For bright giants and supergiants no such mass discrepancy is found; these stars therefore appear to follow tracks of modestly or non-rotating objects. The set of programme stars was sufficiently large to establish the mass loss rates of OB stars in this Z similar to 1/2 Z(circle dot) environment sufficiently accurate to allow for a quantitative comparison with similar objects in the Galaxy and the SMC. The mass loss properties are found to be intermediate to massive stars in the Galaxy and SMC. Comparing the derived modified wind momenta D-mom as a function of luminosity with predictions for LMC metallicities by Vink et al. ( 2001) yields good agreement in the entire luminosity range that was investigated, i.e. 5.0