A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Long-term expansion of transplantable human fetal liver hematopoietic stem cells

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), with their dual ability for self-renewal and multilineage differentiation, constitute an essential component of hematopoietic transplantations. Human fetal liver (FL) represents a promising alternative HSC source, and we previously reported simple culture conditions allowing long-term expansion of FL hematopoietic progenitors. In the present study, we used the nonobese diabetic/severe combined immunodeficiency (NOD/SCID) mouse xenotransplantation assay to confirm that human FL is rich in NOD/SCID-repopulating cells (SRCs) and to show that these culture conditions repeatedly maintained short- and long-term SRCs from various FL samples for at least 28 days. Quantitative limited dilution analysis in NOD/SCID mice demonstrated for the first time that a 10- to over a 100-fold net expansion of FL SRCs could be achieved after 28 days of culture. The efficiency of this culture system may lead to an increase in the use of FL as a source of HSCs for transplantation in adult patients, as previously demonstrated with umbilical cord blood under different culture conditions.

Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force Report, August 2008

Eighty-five of 99 Iowa counties were declared Presidential Disaster Areas for Public Assistance and/orIndividual Assistance as a result of the tornadoes, storms, and floods over the incident period May 25 through August 13, 2008. Response dominated the state’s attention for weeks, with a transition to recovery as the local situations warranted. The widespread damage and severity of the impact on Iowans and their communities required a statewide effort to continue moving forward despite being surrounded by adversity. By all accounts, it will require years for the state to recover from these disasters. With an eye toward the future, recovery is underway across Iowa. As part of the Rebuild Iowa efforts, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force was charged with responsibilities somewhat different from other topical Task Force assignments. Rather than assess damage and report on how the state might address immediate needs, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force is directed to discuss and discern the best approach to the lengthy recovery process. Certainly, the Governor and Lieutenant Governor expect the task to be difficult; when planning around so many critical issues and overwhelming needs, it is challenging to think to the future, rather than to rise to the current day’s needs.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Financing constraints and fixed-term employment contracts

This paper studies the interactions between financing constraints and theemployment decisions of firms when both fixed-term and permanent employmentcontracts are available. We first develop a dynamic model that shows theeffects of financing constraints and firing costs on employment decisions. Oncecalibrated, the model shows that financially constrained firms tend to use moreintensely fixed term workers, and to make them absorb a larger fraction of thetotal employment volatility than financially unconstrained firms do. We testand confirm the predictions of the model on a unique panel data of Italian manufacturingfirms with detailed information about the type of workers employedby the firms and about firm financing constraints.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2008, January 2009

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, skilled nursing facilities, residential care facilities, nursing facilities in hospitals, elder group homes and assisted living programs. The long-term care system in Iowa has changed significantly over the past 10 years. Local long-term care ombudsman programs in Iowa are now well established. Iowa still ranks near the bottom of 53 ombudsman programs in the nation for ratio of paid staff to residents with one ombudsman for each 7,400 residents compared to the national average of one ombudsman for each 2,174 residents. The Resident Advocate Committee Program remains stable at 2400 volunteers and Iowa continues to be the only state in the nation with this type of program. Because volunteers do not receive training as required by the Administration on Aging, volunteers are not certified volunteer ombudsmen and the work done by these volunteers cannot be included in Iowa’s annual federal reports. With the changing population living in long-term care facilities, this volunteer job is much more challenging than in the past. Helping to build a long-term care system in Iowa that provides individualized, person-directed quality care is the long-term goal for this office.

Esotropie précoce: résultats à long terme d'une série de 82 cas opérés par myopexie rétro-équatoriale et recul simultané des deux muscles droits médiaux avant l'âge de 24 mois [Early-onset esotropia operated before the age of 24 months: long-term results of Cüpper's retropexy combined with simultaneous recession of both medial recti]

BACKGROUND: When and how to operate an early-onset esotropia (onset before 6 months of age) is still controversial. We conducted a retrospective study of such patients operated before the age of 24 months. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 82 patients were operated by one surgeon (GK) and followed by the same team. At 5 years post-operation, evaluation criteria included the residual angle of deviation, visual acuity (Birkhäuser Nr 505, 5 m) and binocularity (Lang stereotest I, Bagolini glasses). RESULTS: At 5 years, the residual angle was excellent (0 degrees to + 5 degrees ) in 67 % good, (>+5 degrees to +10 degrees or 0 to -5 degrees ) in 23 %, and poor (>+10 degrees or <-5 degrees ) in 10 %. During the 5 years of follow-up the rate of reoperation was 9.7 %. Isoacuity was obtained in 62 %, slight amblyopia (2 lines of interocular difference) was present in 32 %, and average amblyopia (> 3 lines of interocular difference) was noted in 6 %. Simultaneous perception was present in 53 %, whereas one eye was suppressed or results were undetermined in 47 %. No patient demonstrated stereoscopy using the Lang's stereotest I. CONCLUSION: The results from our study demonstrate that early surgery of early-onset esotropia has a favourable outcome on both visual acuity and the residual angle of strabismus. Simultaneous perception was achieved in 53 %. These figures are comparable to the results of the ELISSS multicentric study.

Short term variation in the vertical distribution of copepods off the coast of northern Peru

Analiza los datos colectados de la clorofila frente al Peru cerca de 9°S. Determinandose la profundidad a la que se enuentran y la concentración de oxigeno durante el dia y la noche.

Long-term treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis esophagitis with budesonide

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic-inflammatory disease of the esophagus, characterized by esophagus-related symptoms and a dense tissue eosinophilia, both refractory to proton pump inhibitors. Topical corticosteroids have proven effective in inducing clinical and histologic remission. However, a long-term strategy for the management of this chronic disease is not yet defined. METHODS: In a randomized, double-blind, placebocontrolled, long-term trial, we evaluated the efficacy of twice-daily 0.25 mg swallowed budesonide in maintaining a remission in adult EoE with prior response to induction therapy. Pre- and post-treatment disease activity was assessed clinically, endoscopically, histologically, by immunofluorescence and by high-resolution endosonography. The primary end point was the ability to maintain histologic remission (<5 eos/hpf) of EoE in. Secondary end points were the efficacy on symptom control and on tissue remodeling as well as the determination of the safety of long-term esophageal administration of topical corticosteroids. RESULTS: During a 50-week therapy of quiescent EoE with low-dose budesonide the esophageal eosinophil load (ECP staining) increased from 1.1 to 29.9 eos/hpf, but under placebo the increase was significantly larger (0.5 to 51.1 eos/hpf; p=0.01). At the end of the studyperiod, 35.7% (5/14) of the budesonide patients were in complete and 14.3% (2/14) in partial histologic remission; with placebo no patient was in complete and 28.6% (4/14) were in partial remission (p=0.0647). The increase of the symptom score was markedly lower in budesonide- (0.79 to 2.29 points) than in placebo-patients (0.71 to 4.00 points; p=0.0875). The median time to relapse of symptoms was >125 days in the budesonide and 95 days in the placebo group (p = 0.14). Measured by high-resolution endosonography, all EoE patients had pre-treatment a highly thickened esophageal wall compared with healthy controls (3.05±1.08 mm vs. 2.18±0.35 mm; p<0.0001). Long-term topical budesonide reduced mainly the thickness of the superficial wall layers (mucosa, 0.75 mm to 0.45 mm; p=0.025) whereas the response of the deeper layers was less pronounced (submucosa 1.31 to 1.08 mm; p=0.19 and muscularis 0.82 to 0.76 mm; p=0.72). Budesonide did not evoke any mucosal atrophy. CONCLUSIONS: This study clearly demonstrates that 1) Untreated eosinophil inflammation results in an impressive remodeling of the esophagus; 2) A therapy is therefore needed; 3) The high relapse rate after short-term therapy requires a long-term management and 4) Maintenance treatment with budesonide is well tolerated and keeps half of the patients in remission.

Prediction of functional outcome 18 months after a first psychotic episode: a proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.

Long term global evaluation of a national AIDS prevention strategy: the case of Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: The Swiss Aids prevention strategy has been subject to a continuous process of evaluation for the past 12 years. This paper describes the conceptual approach, methodology, results obtained and contribution to policy-making of that evaluation.¦DESIGN: The evaluation is on-going, global with respect to all components of the strategy, and utilization-focused. Each successive phase of the evaluation has included 10-20 studies centred either on aspects of process, of outcome or of environmental context. Findings are synthesized at the end of each phase. METHODS: Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used. Studies generally have one of three functions within the overall evaluation: assessment of trends through surveys or other types of repeated studies; evaluation of specific areas through a series of studies from different viewpoints; in-depth investigation or rapid assessment through one-off studies. Various methods of triangulation are used to validate findings. RESULTS: The evaluation has allowed for: the observation of behavioural change in different populations; the availability of scientific data in controversial fields such as drug-use policy; an understanding of the diversity of public appropriation of prevention messages. Recommendations are regularly formulated and have been used by policy-makers and field workers for strategy development. CONCLUSIONS: The global approach adopted corresponds well to the evaluation requirements of an integrated long-term prevention strategy. Cost is low relative to the extent of information provided. Such an evaluation cannot however address the question of causal relationship between the strategy and observed changes. The evaluation has contributed to the development of a culture of evaluation in Swiss AIDS prevention more generally.

Achievement of at least very good partial response is a simple and robust prognostic factor in patients with multiple myeloma treated with high-dose therapy: long-term analysis of the IFM 99-02 and 99-04 Trials.

PURPOSE: The prognostic impact of complete response (CR) achievement in multiple myeloma (MM) has been shown mostly in the context of autologous stem-cell transplantation. Other levels of response have been defined because, even with high-dose therapy, CR is a relatively rare event. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prognostic impact of very good partial response (VGPR) in patients treated with high-dose therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients were included in the Intergroupe Francophone du Myelome 99-02 and 99-04 trials and treated with vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (VAD) induction therapy followed by double autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Best post-ASCT response assessment was available for 802 patients. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 67 months, median event-free survival (EFS) and 5-year EFS were 42 months and 34%, respectively, for 405 patients who achieved at least VGPR after ASCT versus 32 months and 26% in 288 patients who achieved only partial remission (P = .005). Five-year overall survival (OS) was significantly superior in patients achieving at least VGPR (74% v 61% P = .0017). In multivariate analysis, achievement of less than VGPR was an independent factor predicting shorter EFS and OS. Response to VAD had no impact on EFS and OS. The impact of VGPR achievement on EFS and OS was significant in patients with International Staging System stages 2 to 3 and for patients with poor-risk cytogenetics t(4;14) or del(17p). CONCLUSION: In the context of ASCT, achievement of at least VGPR is a simple prognostic factor that has importance in intermediate and high-risk MM and can be informative in more patients than CR.

Spaced training facilitates long-term retention of place navigation in adult but not in adolescent rats

Young and adult Long Evans rats were tested in the water maze according to two different procedures: half of the subjects were given one session of four trials a day for 6 days, whereas the other subjects had the same amount of training massed in 1 day. For both conditions, a 14-day retention interval was then introduced to test long-term memory. This was followed by a four-trial reversal session. All groups showed a significant learning curve, but escape latencies were shorter for the adult than for the young rats, without differential effect of the training procedure. A first probe trial (PT1) confirmed similar accurate short-term retention in all the groups. But unimpaired long-term memory was only seen in the adult rats trained with the spaced procedure. The young rats trained over 1 day also showed some retention of the platform location after 14 days, but not the other two groups. Reversal acquisition of the new platform location was rapid in the four groups. These results indicate that although accurate short-term spatial memory in the water maze is seen after a 1-day massed training in both age groups, unimpaired long-term retention is only observed in adult rats trained with 24-h inter-session intervals.

Prediction of subcutaneous fatty acid composition from ham of CLA fed boars and gilts using a NIRS fiber optic probe

The aim of this work was the use of NIR technology by direct application of a fiber optic probe on back fat to analyze the fatty acid composition of CLA fed boars and gilts. 265 animals were fed 3 different diets and the fatty acid profile of back fat from Gluteus medius was analyzed using gas chromatography and FT-NIR. Spectra were acquired using a Bruker Optics Matrix-F duplex spectrometer equipped with a fiber optic probe (IN-268-2). Oleic and stearic fatty acids were predicted accurately; myristic, vaccenic and linoleic fatty acids were predicted with lower accuracy, while palmitic and α-linolenic fatty acids were poorly predicted. The relative percentage of fatty acids and NIR spectra showed differences in fatty acid composition of back fat from pigs fed CLA which increased the relative percentage of SFA and PUFA while MUFA decreased. Results suggest that a NIR fiber optic probe can be used to predict total saturated and unsaturated fatty acid composition, as well as the percentage of stearic and oleic. NIR showed potential as a rapid and easily implemented method to discriminate carcasses from animals fed different diets.