995 resultados para Seismic risk


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Hostility is a multidimensional construct having wide effects on society. In its different forms, hostility is related to a large array of social and health problems, such as criminality, substance abuse, depression, and cardiovascular risks. Identifying and tackling early-life factors that contribute to hostility may have public health significance. Although the variance in hostility is estimated to be 18-50 percent heritable, there are significant gaps in knowledge regarding the molecular genetics of hostility. It is known that a cold and unsupportive home atmosphere in childhood predicts a child s later hostility. However, the long-term effects of care-giving quality on hostility in adulthood and the role of genes in this association are unclear. The present dissertation is part of the ongoing population-based prospective Young Finns study, which commenced in 1980 with 3596 3-18-year-old boys and girls who were followed for 27 years. The specific aims of the dissertation were first to study the antecedents of hostility by looking at 1) the genetic background, 2) the early environmental predictors, and 3) the gene environment interplay behind hostility. As a second aim, the thesis endeavored to examine 4) the association between hostility and cardiovascular risks, and 5) the moderating effect of demographic factors, such as gender and socioeconomic status, on this association. The study found potential gene polymorphisms from chromosomes 7, 14, 17, and 22 suggestively associated with hostility. Of early environmental influences, breastfeeding and early care-giving were found to predict hostility in adulthood. In addition, a serotonin receptor 2A polymorphism rs6313 moderated the effect of early care-giving on later hostile attitudes. Furthermore, hostility was shown to predict cardiovascular risks, such as metabolic syndrome and inflammation. Finally, parental socioeconomic status was found to moderate the association between anger and early atherosclerosis. The new genetic and early environmental antecedents of hostility identified in this research may help in understanding the development of hostility and its health risks, and in planning appropriate prevention. The significance of early influences on this development is stressed. Although the markers studied are individual- and family-related factors, these may be influenced at the societal level by giving accurate information to all individuals concerned and by improving the societal circumstances.

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We address risk minimizing option pricing in a regime switching market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the Markov process. Using the minimal martingale measure, we show that the locally risk minimizing prices for certain exotic options satisfy a system of Black-Scholes partial differential equations with appropriate boundary conditions. We find the corresponding hedging strategies and the residual risk. We develop suitable numerical methods to compute option prices.

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The existence of an optimal feedback law is established for the risk-sensitive optimal control problem with denumerable state space. The main assumptions imposed are irreducibility and a near monotonicity condition on the one-step cost function. A solution can be found constructively using either value iteration or policy iteration under suitable conditions on initial feedback law.

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The effect of horizontal earthquake body forces on the bearing capacity of foundations has been examined computationally in a rigorous manner by employing the method of stress characteristics. The bearing capacity factors N-c, N-q and N-y, due to the components of soil cohesion, ground surcharge pressure and soil unit weight respectively, have been plotted as a function of earthquake acceleration coefficient (a(h)) for different values of soil friction angle (phi). The inclusion of earthquake body forces causes a considerable reduction in the bearing capacity factors. The bearing capacity factors N-c and N-q are seen to be approximately of the same magnitude as those reported in the literature on the basis of different solution methods. However, the obtained values of N-y are found to be significantly smaller than the available results. The nature of the pressure distribution along the footing base and the geometry of the observed failure patterns vary with the consideration of earthquake body forces.

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The problem of finding the horizontal pullout capacity of vertical anchors embedded in sands with the inclusion of pseudostatic horizontal earthquake body forces, was tackled in this note. The analysis was carried out using an upper bound limit analysis, with the consideration of two different collapse mechanisms: bilinear and composite logarithmic spiral rupture surfaces. The results are presented in nondimensional form to find the pullout resistance with changes in earthquake acceleration for different combinations of embedment ratio of the anchor (lambda), friction angle of the soil (phi), and the anchor-soil interface wall friction angle (delta). The pullout resistance decreases quite substantially with increases in the magnitude of the earthquake acceleration. For values of delta up to about 0.25-0.5phi, the bilinear and composite logarithmic spiral rupture surfaces gave almost identical answers, whereas for higher values of delta, the choice of the logarithmic spiral provides significantly smaller pullout resistance. The results compare favorably with the existing theoretical data.

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The method of characteristics was used to generate passive earth pressure coefficients for an inclined wall retaining cohesionless backfill material in the presence of pseudostatic horizontal earthquake body forces. The variation of the passive earth pressure coefficients K-pq and K-pgamma with changes in horizontal earthquake acceleration coefficient due to the components of soil unit weight and surcharge pressure, respectively, has been obtained; a closed-form solution for K-pq is also provided. The passive earth resistance has been found to decrease sharply with an increase in the magnitude of horizontal earthquake acceleration. The computed passive earth pressure coefficients were found to be the lowest when compared to all of the previous solutions available in the literature.

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: In the presence of pseudo-static seismic forces, passive earth pressure coefficients behind retaining walls were generated using the limit equilibrium method of analysis for the negative wall friction angle case (i.e., the wall moves upwards relative to the backfill) with logarithmic spirals as rupture surfaces. Individual density, surcharge, and cohesion components were computed to obtain the total minimum seismic passive resistance in soils by adding together the individual minimum components. The effect of variation in wall batter angle, ground slope, wall friction angle, soil friction angle, and horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations on seismic passive earth pressures are considered in the analysis. The seismic passive earth pressure coefficients are found to be highly sensitive to the seismic acceleration coefficients both in the horizontal and the vertical directions. The results are presented in graphical and tabular formats.

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This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.