986 resultados para Scenario


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Diagnosis and decisions on life-sustaining treatment (LST) in disorders of consciousness, such as the vegetative state (VS) and the minimally conscious state (MCS), are challenging for neurologists. The locked-in syndrome (LiS) is sometimes confounded with these disorders by less experienced physicians. We aimed to investigate (1) the application of diagnostic knowledge, (2) attitudes concerning limitations of LST, and (3) further challenging aspects in the care of patients. A vignette-based online survey with a randomized presentation of a VS, MCS, or LiS case scenario was conducted among members of the German Society for Neurology. A sample of 503 neurologists participated (response rate 16.4%). An accurate diagnosis was given by 86% of the participants. The LiS case was diagnosed more accurately (94%) than the VS case (79%) and the MCS case (87%, p < 0.001). Limiting LST for the patient was considered by 92, 91, and 84% of the participants who accurately diagnosed the VS, LiS, and MCS case (p = 0.09). Overall, most participants agreed with limiting cardiopulmonary resuscitation; a minority considered limiting artificial nutrition and hydration. Neurologists regarded the estimation of the prognosis and determination of the patients' wishes as most challenging. The majority of German neurologists accurately applied the diagnostic categories VS, MCS, and LiS to case vignettes. Their attitudes were mostly in favor of limiting life-sustaining treatment and slightly differed for MCS as compared to VS and LiS. Attitudes toward LST strongly differed according to circumstances (e.g., patient's will opposed treatment) and treatment measures.

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ty that low-energy effective field theory could be sufficient to understand the microscopic degrees of freedom underlying black hole entropy. We propose a qualitative physical picture in which black hole entropy refers to a space of quasicoherent states of infalling matter, together with its gravitational field. We stress that this scenario might provide a low-energy explanation of both the black hole entropy and the information puzzle.

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"static" instanton, representing pair creation of critical bubbles¿a process somewhat analogous to thermal activation in flat space. In that case, the branes may stick together due to thermal symmetry restoration, and the pair creation rate depends exponentially on the ambient de Sitter temperature, switching off sharply as the temperature approaches zero. Such a static instanton may be well suited for the ¿saltatory¿ relaxation scenario proposed by Feng et al.

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Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

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The Brazilian East coast was intensely affected by deforestation, which drastically cut back the original biome. The possible impacts of this process on water resources are still unknown. The purpose of this study was an evaluation of the impacts of deforestation on the main water balance components of the Galo creek watershed, in the State of Espírito Santo, on the East coast of Brazil. Considering the real conditions of the watershed, the SWAT model was calibrated with data from 1997 to 2000 and validated for the period between 2001 and 2003. The calibration and validation processes were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and by the statistical parameters (determination coefficient, slope coefficient and F test) of the regression model adjusted for estimated and measured flow data. After calibration and validation of the model, new simulations were carried out for three different land use scenarios: a scenario in compliance with the law (C1), assuming the preservation of PPAs (permanent preservation areas); an optimistic scenario (C2), which considers the watershed to be almost entirely covered by native vegetation; and a pessimistic scenario (C3), in which the watershed would be almost entirely covered by pasture. The scenarios C1, C2 and C3 represent a soil cover of native forest of 76, 97 and 0 %, respectively. The results were compared with the simulation, considering the real scenario (C0) with 54 % forest cover. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.65 and 0.70 for calibration and validation, respectively, indicating satisfactory results in the flow simulation. A mean reduction of 10 % of the native forest cover would cause a mean annual increase of approximately 11.5 mm in total runoff at the watershed outlet. Reforestation would ensure minimum flows in the dry period and regulate the maximum flow of the main watercourse of the watershed.

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We develop a general theory for percolation in directed random networks with arbitrary two-point correlations and bidirectional edgesthat is, edges pointing in both directions simultaneously. These two ingredients alter the previously known scenario and open new views and perspectives on percolation phenomena. Equations for the percolation threshold and the sizes of the giant components are derived in the most general case. We also present simulation results for a particular example of uncorrelated network with bidirectional edges confirming the theoretical predictions.

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We investigate the phase transition in a strongly disordered short-range three-spin interaction model characterized by the absence of time-reversal symmetry in the Hamiltonian. In the mean-field limit the model is well described by the Adam-Gibbs-DiMarzio scenario for the glass transition; however, in the short-range case this picture turns out to be modified. The model presents a finite temperature continuous phase transition characterized by a divergent spin-glass susceptibility and a negative specific-heat exponent. We expect the nature of the transition in this three-spin model to be the same as the transition in the Edwards-Anderson model in a magnetic field, with the advantage that the strong crossover effects present in the latter case are absent.

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Biochar (carbonized biomass for agricultural use) has been used worldwide as soil amendment and is a technology of particular interest for Brazil, since its "inspiration" is from the historical Terra Preta de Índios(Amazon Dark Earth), and also because Brazil is the world's largest charcoal producer, generating enormous residue quantities in form of fine charcoal and due to the availability of different residual biomasses, mainly from agroindustry (e.g., sugar-cane bagasse; wood and paper-mill wastes; residues from biofuel industries; sewage sludge etc), that can be used for biochar production, making Brazil a key actor in the international scenario in terms of biochar research and utilization). In the last decade, numerous studies on biochar have been carried out and now a vast literature, and excellent reviews, are available. The objective of this paper is therefore to deliver a critical review with some highlights on biochar research, rather than an exhaustive bibliographic review. To this end, some key points considered critical and relevant were selected and the pertinent literature "condensed", with a view to guide future research, rather than analyze trends of the past.

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We propose a general scenario to analyze technological changes in socio-economic environments. We illustrate the ideas with a model that incorporating the main trends is simple enough to extract analytical results and, at the same time, sufficiently complex to display a rich dynamic behavior. Our study shows that there exists a macroscopic observable that is maximized in a regime where the system is critical, in the sense that the distribution of events follow power laws. Computer simulations show that, in addition, the system always self-organizes to achieve the optimal performance in the stationary state.

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This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

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The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

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ABSTRACT The impact of intensive management practices on the sustainability of forest production depends on maintenance of soil fertility. The contribution of forest residues and nutrient cycling in this process is critical. A 16-year-old stand of Pinus taeda in a Cambissolo Húmico Alumínico léptico (Humic Endo-lithic Dystrudept) in the south of Brazil was studied. A total of 10 trees were sampled distributed in five diameter classes according to diameter at breast height. The biomass of the needles, twigs, bark, wood, and roots was measured for each tree. In addition to plant biomass, accumulated plant litter was sampled, and soil samples were taken at three increments based on sampling depth: 0.00-0.20, 0.20-0.40, 0.40-0.60, 0.60-1.00, 1.00-1.40, 1.40-1.80, and 1.80-1.90 m. The quantity and concentration of nutrients, as well as mineralogical characteristics, were determined for each soil sample. Three scenarios of harvesting intensities were simulated: wood removal (A), wood and bark removal (B), and wood + bark + canopy removal (C). The sum of all biomass components was 313 Mg ha-1.The stocks of nutrients in the trees decreased in the order N>Ca>K>S>Mg>P. The mineralogy of the Cambissolo Húmico Alumínico léptico showed the predominance of quartz sand and small traces of vermiculite in the silt fraction. Clay is the main fraction that contributes to soil weathering, due to the transformation of illite-vermiculite, releasing K. The depletion of nutrients from the soil biomass was in the order: P>S>N>K>Mg>Ca. Phosphorus and S were the most limiting in scenario A due to their low stock in the soil. In scenario B, the number of forest rotations was limited by N, K, and S. Scenario C showed the greatest reduction in productivity, allowing only two rotations before P limitation. It is therefore apparent that there may be a difference of up to 30 years in the capacity of the soil to support a scenario such as A, with a low nutrient removal, compared to scenario C, with a high nutrient removal. Hence, the effect of different harvesting intensities on nutrient availability may jeopardize the sustainability of P. taeda in the short-term.

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The liquid-liquid critical point scenario of water hypothesizes the existence of two metastable liq- uid phases low-density liquid (LDL) and high-density liquid (HDL) deep within the supercooled region. The hypothesis originates from computer simulations of the ST2 water model, but the stabil- ity of the LDL phase with respect to the crystal is still being debated. We simulate supercooled ST2 water at constant pressure, constant temperature, and constant number of molecules N for N ≤ 729 and times up to 1 μs. We observe clear differences between the two liquids, both structural and dynamical. Using several methods, including finite-size scaling, we confirm the presence of a liquid-liquid phase transition ending in a critical point. We find that the LDL is stable with respect to the crystal in 98% of our runs (we perform 372 runs for LDL or LDL-like states), and in 100% of our runs for the two largest system sizes (N = 512 and 729, for which we perform 136 runs for LDL or LDL-like states). In all these runs, tiny crystallites grow and then melt within 1 μs. Only for N ≤ 343 we observe six events (over 236 runs for LDL or LDL-like states) of spontaneous crystal- lization after crystallites reach an estimated critical size of about 70 ± 10 molecules.

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The brain requires a constant and substantial energy supply to maintain its main functions. For decades, it was assumed that glucose was the major if not the only significant source of energy for neurons. This view was supported by the expression of specific facilitative glucose transporters on cerebral blood vessels, as well as neurons. Despite the fact that glucose remains a key energetic substrate for the brain, growing evidence suggests a different scenario. Thus astrocytes, a major type of glial cells that express their own glucose transporter, play a critical role in coupling synaptic activity with glucose utilization. It was shown that glutamatergic activity triggers an enhancement of aerobic glycolysis in this cell type. As a result, lactate is provided to neurons as an additional energy substrate. Indeed, lactate has proven to be a preferential energy substrate for neurons under various conditions. A family of proton-linked carriers known as monocarboxylate transporters has been described and specific members have been found to be expressed by endothelial cells, astrocytes and neurons. Moreover, these transporters are subject to fine regulation of their expression levels and localization, notably in neurons, which suggests that lactate supply could be adjusted as a function of their level of activity. Considering the importance of energetics in the aetiology of several neurodegenerative diseases, a better understanding of its cellular and molecular underpinnings might have important implications for the future development of neuroprotective strategies.

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Chemoreception is a biological process essential for the survival of animals, as it allows the recognition of important volatile cues for the detection of food, egg-laying substrates, mates or predators, among other purposes. Furthermore, its role in pheromone detection may contribute to evolutionary processes such as reproductive isolation and speciation. This key role in several vital biological processes makes chemoreception a particularly interesting system for studying the role of natural selection in molecular adaptation. Two major gene families are involved in the perireceptor events of the chemosensory system: the odorant-binding protein (OBP) and chemosensory protein (CSP) families. Here, we have conducted an exhaustive comparative genomic analysis of these gene families in twenty Arthropoda species. We show that the evolution of the OBP and CSP gene families is highly dynamic, with a high number of gains and losses of genes, pseudogenes and independent origins of subfamilies. Taken together, our data clearly support the birth-and-death model for the evolution of these gene families with an overall high gene-turnover rate. Moreover, we show that the genome organization of the two families is significantly more clustered than expected by chance and, more important, that this pattern appears to be actively maintained across the Drosophila phylogeny. Finally, we suggest the homologous nature of the OBP and CSP gene families, dating back their MRCA (most recent common ancestor) to 380¿420 Mya, and we propose a scenario for the origin and diversification of these families.