985 resultados para STOCHASTIC MODELING


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In the present paper, a multifluid model of two-phase flows with pulverized-coal combustion, based on a continuum-trajectory model with reacting particle phase, is developed and employed to simulate the 3-D turbulent two-phase hows and combustion in a new type of pulverized-coal combustor with one primary-air jet placed along the wall of the combustor. The results show that: (1) this continuum-trajectory model with reacting particle phase can be used in practical engineering to qualitatively predict the flame stability, concentrations of gas species, possibilities of slag formation and soot deposition, etc.; (2) large recirculation zones can be created in the combustor, which is favorable to the ignition and flame stabilization.

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An efficient method for solving the spatially inhomogeneous Boltzmann equation in a two-term approximation for low-pressure inductively coupled plasmas has been developed. The electron distribution function (EDF), a function of total electron energy and two spatial coordinates, is found self-consistently with the static space-charge potential which is computed from a 2D fluid model, and the rf electric field profile which is calculated from the Maxwell equations. The EDF and the spatial distributions of the electron density, potential, temperature, ionization rate, and the inductive electric field are calculated and discussed. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

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Based upon the spatially inhomogeneous Boltzmann equation in two-term approximation coupled with electromagnetic and fluid model analysis for the recently developed inductively coupled plasma sources, a self-consistent electron kinetic model is developed. The electron distribution function, spatial distributions of the electron density and ionization rate are calculated and discussed.

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Motivated by the observation of the rate effect on material failure, a model of nonlinear and nonlocal evolution is developed, that includes both stochastic and dynamic effects. In phase space a transitional region prevails, which distinguishes the failure behavior from a globally stable one to that of catastrophic. Several probability functions are found to characterize the distinctive features of evolution due to different degrees of nucleation, growth and coalescence rates. The results may provide a better understanding of material failure.

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Using a variational method, a general three-dimensional solution to the problem of a sliding spherical inclusion embedded in an infinite anisotropic medium is presented in this paper. The inclusion itself is also a general anisotropic elastic medium. The interface is treated as a thin interface layer with interphase anisotropic properties. The displacements in the matrix and the inclusion are expressed as polynomial series of the cartesian coordinate components. Using the virtual work principle, a set of linear algebraic equations about unknown coefficients are obtained. Then the general sliding spherical inclusion problem is accurately solved. Based on this solution, a self-consistent method for sliding polycrystals is proposed. Combining this with a two-dimensional model of an aggregate polycrystal, a systematic analysis of the mechanical behaviour of sliding polycrystals is given in detail. Numerical results are given to show the significant effect of grain boundary sliding on the overall mechanical properties of aggregate polycrystals.

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The effects of stochastic extension on the statistical evolution of the ideal microcrack system are discussed. First, a general theoretical formulation and an expression for the transition probability of extension process are presented, then the features of evolution in stochastic model are demonstrated by several numerical results and compared with that in deterministic model.

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In order to understand the mechanism of the incipient spallation in rolled metals, a one dimensional statistical mode1 on evolution of microcracks in spallation was proposed. The crack length appears to be the fundamental variable in the statistical description. Two dynamic processes, crack nucleation and growth, were involved in the model of damage evolution. A simplified case was examined and preliminary correlation to experimental observations of spallation was made.

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The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

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The purpose of this article is to characterize dynamic optimal harvesting trajectories that maximize discounted utility assuming an age-structured population model, in the same line as Tahvonen (2009). The main novelty of our study is that uses as an age-structured population model the standard stochastic cohort framework applied in Virtual Population Analysis for fish stock assessment. This allows us to compare optimal harvesting in a discounted economic context with standard reference points used by fisheries agencies for long term management plans (e.g. Fmsy). Our main findings are the following. First, optimal steady state is characterized and sufficient conditions that guarantees its existence and uniqueness for the general case of n cohorts are shown. It is also proved that the optimal steady state coincides with the traditional target Fmsy when the utility function to be maximized is the yield and the discount rate is zero. Second, an algorithm to calculate the optimal path that easily drives the resource to the steady state is developed. And third, the algorithm is applied to the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal.