Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Classification criteria and commercial profile re-definition of the Family Farm Agriculture in Chile, Maule region

In Chile, small-scale farmers are classified according to old approaches from 1993 that do not include changes occurred in the last two decades. Maule is the region with most rural population in Chile which represents a significant stratum for development, innovation and competitiveness. This study explores a new approach of small-scale farmers -associated with Family Farm Agriculture (AFC) - classification in Chile and it describes a commercial profile or AFC-1 for famers of the Maule Region. A Cluster analysis to determine AFC-1 farmers is used. The analysis includes four association variables: Total Assets, Farm Income, Production Costs and Management Indicators. The results suggest that 16.4% of the farmers have a commercial profile and they could stay out support provided by the National Institute for Agricultural Development (INDAP). This group of farmers would not belong to AFC in short terms. This fact could bring restriction to AFC-1 farmers such as lack of credit access, less investment incentives and technical assistance. Thus, it would expect low process of technology adoption and welfare improvement. New agrarian policies must be warranted to support this important group of famers with a commercial profile.

Análisis bibliométrico de las publicaciones científicas argentinas en la categoría Agriculture, Multidisciplinary de la base de datos Web of Science (1997-2009)

El propósito del trabajo ha sido caracterizar el área de Agriculture, Multidisciplinary en Argentina, revisándose a nivel institucional, a través de la base de datos Web of Science, los trabajos realizados por investigadores en Instituciones argentinas y publicados en revistas internacionales con factor de impacto entre 1997 y 2009. En el contexto de América Latina, se han publicado 7795 trabajos de todos los tipos documentales y 7622 del tipo artículo o revisión en 49 revistas, y a nivel de Argentina se han encontrado 531 artículos o revisiones publicados en 31 revistas, la mayoría en inglés (80,23%), pero también en español (15,25%) y en portugués (4,33%). Por otro lado, se han analizado las Instituciones desde el punto de vista cuantitativo y cualitativo mediante diversos indicadores bibliométricos, como el Factor de Impacto Ponderado, el Factor de Impacto Relativo y la ratio número de citas frente a número de documentos, encontrándose que entre las instituciones más productivas destacan el Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas por el número de documentos y el Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Criotecnología de Alimentos por el Factor de Impacto Ponderado y por la ratio citas frente a documentos. Se observa una escasa colaboración internacional.

Economic development capitalizing on brand agriculture : turning development strategy on its head

This paper explores the possibilities of two unique Japanese concepts - the One Village One Product Movement (OVOP) and Michino Eki (or Roadside Stations) - as potential tools for bridging the gap between cities and rural areas through community-driven development. From the viewpoint of spatial economics and endogenous growth theory, this paper considers both OVOP and Michino Eki as rural development strategies of a broader nature based on "brand agriculture." Here, brand agriculture represents a general strategy for community-based rural development that identifies, cultivates and fully utilizes local resources for the development of products or services unique to a certain "village." Selected examples of OVOP and Michino Eki from Japan and developing countries are introduced.

Commercialization of agriculture in the Himalayas

Increased market integration and commercialization of traditional agriculture in the Himalayas is part of a development strategy towards growth and better standard of living. More than 97 percent households depend upon agricultural and allied activities for livelihood which constitutes 30 percent of the household income. Given the importance of commercialization of agriculture to improve the productivity, per capita income and thereby the standard of living in the Himalayas, we examine the factors affecting the commercialization of agriculture on the basis of primary survey data. The results reveal that the land size, gender of the household head, livestock assets, ethnicity, education and location are important determinants of commercialization. Although commercialization of agriculture is considered as stimulated private-sector activity, public policy is essential to facilitate driving forces viz., trade and market reforms, rural infrastructure, and the institutional framework for legal and contractual arrangements between farmers and processors.

Farming strategy of African smallholder farmers in transition from traditional to alternative agriculture : the case of the Nupe in central Nigeria

It is worthwhile to understand farming strategies of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those of farmers who are in transition from traditional to alternative agriculture in terms of adoption of innovative technologies. In a case study of inland valleys in central Nigeria, we investigated the farming strategy of Nupe farmers who have a long-term tradition of wet rice cultivation and indigenous methods of land preparation for soil, water and weed management. In this region, a new method of land preparation has recently been introduced along with a recommendation to use improved seeds and chemical fertilizers. Our findings reveal that Nupe farmers directly sow traditional seeds and apply a marginal amount of fertilizer to paddy plots prepared by labor-saving methods on drought-prone hydromorphic valley fringes and flood-susceptible valley bottoms, whereas they preferentially transplanted improved seedlings and applied a relatively large quantity of fertilizer to paddy fields prepared by a labor-intensive and mechanized method on a valley position where they can access to optimum water condition (less risky against the drought and flood).

Agriculture Plus Plus : growth strategy for Myanmar agriculture

The development of agriculture is a main pillar of Myanmar’s growth strategies. It is natural for the Myanmar government to prioritize agriculture as a source of economic growth, since it accounted for 36% of GDP, employs a majority of labor force, and generates nearly 30% of exports as of 2010. Although the agricultural share in GDP and employment usually declines as an economy grows, it is not a sunset industry in Myanmar. Methods exist for increasing agriculture’s value added other than the growth of labor and land inputs. The key is to enhance three productivity measures: labor, land, and total productivity. We call this strategy "Agriculture Plus Plus."

Precision Agriculture without borders: Practical issues and improvements in farmland coverage with aerial vehicles.

This work presents a solution for the aerial coverage of a field by using a fleet of aerial vehicles. The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles allows to obtain high resolution mosaics to be used in Precision Agriculture techniques. This report is focus on providing a solution for the full simultaneous coverage problem taking into account restrictions as the required spatial resolution and overlap while maintaining similar light conditions and safety operation of the drones. Results obtained from real field tests are finally reported

Techniques for Area Discretization and Coverage in Aerial Photography for Precision Agriculture employing mini quad-rotors

Remote sensed imagery acquired with mini aerial vehicles, in conjunction with GIS technology enable a meticulous analysis from surveyed agricultural sites. This paper sums up the ongoing work in area discretization and coverage with mini quad-­?rotors applied to Precision Agriculture practices under the project RHEA.

Aerial Remote Sensing in Agriculture: A Practical Approach to Area Coverage and Path Planning for Fleets of Mini Aerial Robots

In this paper, a system that allows applying precision agriculture techniques is described. The application is based on the deployment of a team of unmanned aerial vehicles that are able to take georeferenced pictures in order to create a full map by applying mosaicking procedures for postprocessing. The main contribution of this work is practical experimentation with an integrated tool. Contributions in different fields are also reported. Among them is a new one-phase automatic task partitioning manager, which is based on negotiation among the aerial vehicles, considering their state and capabilities. Once the individual tasks are assigned, an optimal path planning algorithm is in charge of determining the best path for each vehicle to follow. Also, a robust flight control based on the use of a control law that improves the maneuverability of the quadrotors has been designed. A set of field tests was performed in order to analyze all the capabilities of the system, from task negotiations to final performance. These experiments also allowed testing control robustness under different weather conditions.

Análisis bibliométrico de las publicaciones científicas argentinas en la categoría Agriculture, Multidisciplinary en la base de datos del Web of Science (1997-2009)

El propósito del trabajo ha sido caracterizar el área de Agriculture, Multidisciplinary en Argentina, revisándose a nivel institucional, a través de la base de datos Web of Science, los trabajos realizados por investigadores en Instituciones argentinas y publicados en revistas internacionales con factor de impacto entre 1997 y 2009. En el contexto deAmérica Latina, se han publicado 7795 trabajos de todos los tipos documentales y 7622 del tipo artículo o revisión en 49 revistas, y a nivel de Argentina se han encontrado 531 artículos o revisiones publicados en 31 revistas, la mayoría en inglés (80,23%), pero también en español (15,25%) y en portugués (4,33%). Por otro lado, se han analizado las Instituciones desde el punto de vista cuantitativo y cualitativo mediante diversos indicadores bibliométricos, como el Factor de Impacto Ponderado, el Factor de Impacto Relativo y la ratio número de citas frente a número de documentos, encontrándose que entre las instituciones más productivas destacan el Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas por el número de documentos y el Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Criotecnología de Alimentos por el Factor de Impacto Ponderado y por la ratio citas frente a documentos. Se observa una escasa colaboración internacional.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

This paper aims at developing a simulation framework to jointly assess agricultural and water issues. While the strong linkages between water, food, and the environment call for an integrated and multidisciplinary modelling approach, a complete and consistent modelling system to evaluate food-water relationships in Europe was missing so far. The spatial economic simulation model for agriculture CAPRI, which comprises a set of environmental indicators to assess food-environment interrelations within European regions, has been extended to account for food-water links. This modelling framework enables simulating the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production at the EU regional level, as well as looking at the sustainable use of water, the implementation of water policies or the integration of water issues in the Common Agricultural Policy

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.