971 resultados para Process uncertainty


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This thesis provides two main contributions. The first one is BP-TRBAC, a unified authorisation model that can support legacy systems as well as business process systems. BP-TRBAC supports specific features that are required by business process environments. BP-TRBAC is designed to be used as an independent enterprise-wide authorisation model, rather than having it as part of the workflow system. It is designed to be the main authorisation model for an organisation. The second contribution is BP-XACML, an authorisation policy language that is designed to represent BPM authorisation policies for business processes. The contribution also includes a policy model for BP-XACML. Using BP-TRBAC as an authorisation model together with BP-XACML as an authorisation policy language will allow an organisation to manage and control authorisation requests from workflow systems and other legacy systems.

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This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

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Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

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Objective: The positioning and meaning of palliative care within the healthcare system lacks clarity which adds a level of complexity to the process of transition to palliative care. This study explores the transition to the palliative care process in the acute care context of metastatic melanoma. Method: A theoretical framework drawing on interpretive and critical traditions informs this research. The pragmatism of symbolic interactionism and the critical theory of Habermas brought a broad orientation to the research. Integration of the theoretical framework and grounded-theory methods facilitated data generation and analysis of 29 interviews with patients, family carers, and healthcare professionals. Results: The key analytical findings depict a scope of palliative care that was uncertain for users of the system and for those working within the system. Becoming “palliative” is not a defined event; nor is there unanimity around referral to a palliative care service. As such, ambiguity and tension contribute to the difficulties involved in negotiating the transition to palliative care. Significance of Results: Our findings point to uncertainty around the scopes of practice in the transition to palliative care. The challenge in the transition process lies in achieving greater coherency of care within an increasingly specialized healthcare system. The findings may not only inform those within a metastatic melanoma context but may contribute more broadly to palliative practices within the acute care setting.

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People get into healthcare because they want to help society. And when a new hospital is briefed, everyone tries to do their best, but the process is mired by the impossibility of the task. Stakeholders rarely understand the architectural process, nobody can predict the future, and the only thing for certain is that everything will change as the project unfolds, revealing errors in initial assumptions and calculations, shifts in needs, new technologies etc. Yet there’s always pressure to keep to the programme and to press on regardless. This chaos leads eventually to suboptimal results: hospitals the world over are riddled with inefficiencies, idiosyncrasies, incredible wastage and features that lead to poor clinical outcomes. This talk will sketch out the basics of Scrum, the most popular open-source Lean/Agile methodology. It will discuss what healthcare designers can learn from the geeks in Silicon Valley reduce risk, meet deadlines and deliver the highest possible value for the budget despite the uncertainty.

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Graphene films were produced by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) of pyridine on copper substrates. Pyridine-CVD is expected to lead to doped graphene by the insertion of nitrogen atoms in the growing sp2 carbon lattice, possibly improving the properties of graphene as a transparent conductive film. We here report on the influence that the CVD parameters (i.e., temperature and gas flow) have on the morphology, transmittance, and electrical conductivity of the graphene films grown with pyridine. A temperature range between 930 and 1070 °C was explored and the results were compared to those of pristine graphene grown by ethanol-CVD under the same process conditions. The films were characterized by atomic force microscopy, Raman and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy. The optical transmittance and electrical conductivity of the films were measured to evaluate their performance as transparent conductive electrodes. Graphene films grown by pyridine reached an electrical conductivity of 14.3 × 105 S/m. Such a high conductivity seems to be associated with the electronic doping induced by substitutional nitrogen atoms. In particular, at 930 °C the nitrogen/carbon ratio of pyridine-grown graphene reaches 3%, and its electrical conductivity is 40% higher than that of pristine graphene grown from ethanol-CVD.

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Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

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Modeling and analysis of wave propagation in elastic solids undergoing damage and growth process are reported in this paper. Two types of diagnostic problems, (1) the propagation of waves in the presence of a slow growth process and (2) the propagation of waves in the presence of a fast growth process, are considered. The proposed model employs a slow and a fast time scale and a homogenization technique in the wavelength scale. A detailed analysis of wave dispersion is carried out. A spectral analysis reveals certain low-frequency bands, where the interaction between the wave and the growth process produces acoustic metamaterial-like behavior. Various practical issues in designing an efficient method of acousto-ultrasonic wave based diagnostics of the growth process are discussed. Diagnostics of isotropic damage in a ductile or quasi-brittle solid by using a micro-second pulsating signal is considered for computer simulations, which is to illustrate the practical application of the proposed modeling and analysis. The simulated results explain how an estimate of signal spreading can be effectively employed to detect the presence of a steady-state damage or the saturation of a process.

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There is a perceived tension in the relationship between the roles of art teacher and artist that led to the question: can an art teacher use their professional training and experience to establish an authentic artistic identity? This self-study tracked and analysed how the process of making her own art enabled an art teacher to also identify as an artist. Drawing on Lamina, the public exhibition of her multimedia artworks, the final exegesis proposes five conditions for art teachers in developing their own art practice: developing an identity as artist, using time and space mindfully, tolerating uncertainty, mentoring, and privileging the process.

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Process view technology is catching more attentions in modern business process management, as it enables the customisation of business process representation. This capability helps improve the privacy protection, authority control, flexible display, etc., in business process modelling. One of approaches to generate process views is to allow users to construct an aggregate on their underlying processes. However, most aggregation approaches stick to a strong assumption that business processes are always well-structured, which is over strict to BPMN. Aiming to build process views for non-well-structured BPMN processes, this paper investigates the characteristics of BPMN structures, tasks, events, gateways, etc., and proposes a formal process view aggregation approach to facilitate BPMN process view creation. A set of consistency rules and construction rules are defined to regulate the aggregation and guarantee the order preservation, structural and behaviour correctness and a novel aggregation technique, called EP-Fragment, is developed to tackle non-well-structured BPMN processes.

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The process view concept deploys a partial and temporal representation to adjust the visible view of a business process according to various perception constraints of users. Process view technology is of practical use for privacy protection and authorization control in process-oriented business management. Owing to complex organizational structure, it is challenging for large companies to accurately specify the diverse perception of different users over business processes. Aiming to tackle this issue, this article presents a role-based process view model to incorporate role dependencies into process view derivation. Compared to existing process view approaches, ours particularly supports runtime updates to the process view perceivable to a user with specific view merging operations, thereby enabling the dynamic tracing of process perception. A series of rules and theorems are established to guarantee the structural consistency and validity of process view transformation. A hypothetical case is conducted to illustrate the feasibility of our approach, and a prototype is developed for the proof-of-concept purpose.