Persuasion as a contest

We examine how the probability of persuading an audience depends on resources expended by contending parties as well as on other factors. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the audience makes inferences solely based on the evidence produced by the contestants. We find conditions that yield the well-known additive contest success function, including the logit function. We also find conditions that produce a generalized “difference” functional form. In all cases, there are three main determinants of audience choice: (i) the truth and other objective parameters of the environment; (ii) the biases of the audience, and (iii) the resources expended by the interested parties.

Association of differential gene expression with imatinib mesylate and omacetaxine mepesuccinate toxicity in lymphoblastoid cell lines

Background

Imatinib mesylate is currently the drug of choice to treat chronic myeloid leukemia. However, patient resistance and cytotoxicity make secondary lines of treatment, such as omacetaxine mepesuccinate, a necessity. Given that drug cytotoxicity represents a major problem during treatment, it is essential to understand the biological pathways affected to better predict poor drug response and prioritize a treatment regime.
Methods

We conducted cell viability and gene expression assays to determine heritability and gene expression changes associated with imatinib and omacetaxine treatment of 55 non-cancerous lymphoblastoid cell lines, derived from 17 pedigrees. In total, 48,803 transcripts derived from Illumina Human WG-6 BeadChips were analyzed for each sample using SOLAR, whilst correcting for kinship structure.
Results

Cytotoxicity within cell lines was highly heritable following imatinib treatment (h2 = 0.60-0.73), but not omacetaxine treatment. Cell lines treated with an IC20 dose of imatinib or omacetaxine showed differential gene expression for 956 (1.96%) and 3,892 transcripts (7.97%), respectively; 395 of these (0.8%) were significantly influenced by both imatinib and omacetaxine treatment. k-means clustering and DAVID functional annotation showed expression changes in genes related to kinase binding and vacuole-related functions following imatinib treatment, whilst expression changes in genes related to cell division and apoptosis were evident following treatment with omacetaxine. The enrichment scores for these ontologies were very high (mostly >10).
Conclusions

Induction of gene expression changes related to different pathways following imatinib and omacetaxine treatment suggests that the cytotoxicity of such drugs may be differentially tolerated by individuals based on their genetic background.

The evolution of freedom of association in Australia's federal industrial relations law: from trade union security to workplace rights

The early provisions protecting freedom of association in Australian federal industrial relations law supported trade union security. The interests of individuals were seen as adequately protected by collective groups. This principle dominated the industrial relations laws from 1904 to the mid-1970s. However, from the late 1970s, the laws were incrementally altered to promote freedom of choice and the rights of individuals not to be part of trade unions. The reframing of the laws also reflected changes in the wider Australian community, manifested particularly in the decline of union density rates. These changes were also part of an international trend, favouring the ideology of neoliberalism which contributed to an unsympathetic environment for trade unions. The current Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth) has signalled a return to collectivism, although freedom of choice is at the heart of the laws rather than the promotion of collective groups. In the absence of legislative support promoting the viability of collective groups, this freedom to choose is threatened, leaving many workers with little choice but to disassociate.

How long should we ignore imperfect detection of species in the marine environment when modelling their distribution?

The application of the 'ecosystem approach' to marine conservation management demands knowledge of the distribution patterns of the target species or communities. This information is commonly obtained from species distribution models (SDMs). This article explores an important but rarely acknowledged assumption in these models: almost all species may be present, but simply not detected by the particular survey method. However, nearly all of these SDM approaches neglect this important characteristic. This leads to the violation of a fundamental assumption of these models, which presuppose the detection of a species is equal to one (i.e. at each survey locality, a species is perfectly detected). In this article, the concept of imperfect detection is discussed, how it potentially influences the prediction of species' distributions is examined, and some statistical methods that could be used to incorporate the detection probability of species in estimates of their distribution are suggested. The approaches discussed here could improve the collection and interpretation of marine biological survey data and provide a coherent way to incorporate detection probability estimates in the modelling of species distributions. This will ultimately lead to an unbiased and more rigorous understanding of the distribution of species in the marine environment.

Soaring and gliding flight of migrating broad-winged hawks : behavior in the nearctic and neotropics compared

We compared migrating behavior of Broad-winged Hawks (Buteo platypterus) at two sites along their migration corridor: Hawk Mountain Sanctuary in eastern Pennsylvania and the Kéköldi Indigenous Reserve in Limón, Costa Rica. We counted the number of times focal birds intermittently flapped their wings and recorded the general flight type (straight-line soaring and gliding on flexed wings versus circle-soaring on fully extended wings). We used a logistic model to evaluate which conditions were good for soaring by calculating the probability of occurrence or absence of wing flaps. Considering that even intermittent flapping is energetically more expensive than pure soaring and gliding flight, we restricted a second analysis to birds that flapped during observations, and used the number of flaps to evaluate factors influencing the cost of migration. Both the occurrence and extent of flapping were greater in Pennsylvania than in Costa Rica, and during periods of straight-line soaring and gliding flight compared with circle-soaring. At both sites, flapping was more likely during rainy weather and early and late in the day compared with the middle of the day. Birds in Costa Rica flew in larger flocks than those in Pennsylvania, and birds flying in large flocks flapped less than those flying alone or in smaller flocks. In Pennsylvania, but not in Costa Rica, the number of flaps was higher when skies were overcast than when skies were clear or partly cloudy. In Costa Rica, but not in Pennsylvania, flapping decreased as temperature increased. Our results indicate that birds migrating in large flocks do so more efficiently than those flying alone and in smaller flocks, and that overall, soaring conditions are better in Costa Rica than in Pennsylvania. We discuss how differences in instantaneous migration costs at the two sites may shift the species' migration strategy from one of time minimization in Pennsylvania to one of energy minimization in Costa Rica.

Security in uncertain times: policies for increasing the popularity of life annuities among retirees

Life annuities offer retirees an assured income stream for as long as they live. This makes it surprising that they are unpopular in most markets where their purchase is not compelled by government policy. With the numbers of retirees in the population set to increase dramatically, this low take-up rate of life annuities could exacerbate financial insecurity. Consequently, it is in society’s interest to implement non-coercive policies that increase annuitization levels. Although there is research that has focused on the possible causes of low annuitization rates, much of this research falls short of suggesting comprehensive strategies for persuading retirees to annuitize their savings.

A review of the adaptive significance and ecosystem consequences of zooplankton diel vertical migrations

Diel vertical migration (DVM) by zooplankton is a universal feature in all the World's oceans, as well as being common in freshwater environments. The normal pattern involves movement from shallow depths at night to greater depths during the day. For many herbivorous and omnivorous mesozooplankton that feed predominantly near the surface on phytoplankton and microzooplankton, minimising the risk of predation from fish seems to be the ultimate factor behind DVM. These migrants appear to use deep water as a dark daytime refuge where their probability of being detected and eaten is lower than if they remained near the surface. Associated with these vertical movements of mesozooplankton, predators at higher trophic levels, including invertebrates, fish, marine mammals, birds and reptiles, may modify their behaviour to optimise the exploitation of their vertically migrating prey. Recent advances in biotelemetry promise to allow the interaction between migrating zooplankton and diving air-breathing vertebrates to be explored in far more detail than hitherto.

Whale watching disrupts feeding activities of minke whales on a feeding ground

Human disturbances of wildlife, such as tourism, can alter the activities of targeted individuals. Repeated behavioural disruptions can have long-term consequences for individual vital rates (survival and reproduction). To manage these sub-lethal impacts, we need to understand how activity disruptions can influence bioenergetics and ultimately individual vital rates. Empirical studies of the mechanistic links between whale-watching boat exposure and behavioural variation and vital rates are currently lacking for baleen whales (mysticetes). We compared minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata behaviour on a feeding ground in the presence and absence of whale-watching boats. Effects on activity states were inferred from changes in movement metric data as well as the occurrence of surface feeding events. Linear mixed effects models and generalised estimation equations were used to investigate the effect of whale-watching boat interactions. Measurement errors were quantified, and their effects on model parameter estimates were investigated using resampling methods. Minke whales responded to whale-watching boats by performing shorter dives and increased sinuous movement. A reduction in the probability of observing longer inter-breath intervals during sinuous movement showed that whale-watching boat interactions reduced foraging activity. Further, the probability of observing surface feeding events also decreased during interactions with whale-watching boats. This indicates that whalewatching boats disrupted the feeding activities of minke whales. Since minke whales are capital breeders, a decrease in feeding success on the feeding grounds due to whale-watching boats could lead to a decrease in energy available for foetus development and nursing on the breeding grounds. Such impact could therefore alter the calving success of this species.

Addition of magnesium chloride to enhance mono-dispersity of a coiled-coil recombinant mouse macrophage protein

X-ray crystallography for the determination of three-dimensional structures of protein macromolecules represents an important tool in function assignment of uncharacterized proteins. However, crystallisation is often difficult to achieve. A protein sample fully characterized in terms of dispersity may increase the likelihood of successful crystallisation by improving the predictability of the crystallisation process. To maximize the probability of crystallisation of a novel mouse macrophage protein (rMMP), target molecule was characterized and refined to improve monodispersity. Addition of MgCl2 at low concentrations resolves the rMMP into a monodisperse solution, and finally successful crystallization of rMMP was achieved. The effect of MgCl2 was studied using gel filtration chromatography and dynamic light scattering.

Socio-demographic and work setting correlates of poor mental health in a population sample of working Victorians: application in evidence-based intervention priority setting

Interventions to promote mental health in the workplace are rapidly gaining acceptability as a means to prevent, screen, treat and effectively manage the growing disease burden of depression and anxiety among working people. The objective of this study was to identify socio-demographic and work setting correlates of poor mental health to consider alongside other evidence in priority setting for workplace mental health promotion (MHP). Multiple logistic regression was used to model the probability of poor mental health (SF-12) in relation to socio-demographic (gender, age, education, marital status and occupational skill level) and employment factors (workplace size and type, industrial sector, employment arrangement and working hours) in a population-based cross-sectional survey of 1051 working Victorians. As a result, poor mental health was (21% prevalence overall) higher in working females than in males and decreased with increasing age. Only one employment factor was significant in demographically adjusted multivariate analyses, showing an increase in the odds of poor mental health with increasing working hours. It is concluded that based on the prevalence of poor mental health, Victorian work settings with high proportions of younger workers, and younger working women in particular, should be prioritized for workplace MHP. Thus, together with other research demonstrating particularly poor psychosocial working conditions for young working women, sectors with an over-representation of this group (e.g. service sector) could be prioritized for workplace MHP alongside young and blue-collar males (also a priority due to low mental healthcare service use).

A framework for identifying affinity classes of inorganic materials binding peptide sequences

With the rapid development of bionanotechnology, there has been a growing interest recently in identifying the affinity classes of the inorganic materials binding peptide sequences. However, there are some distinct characteristics of inorganic materials binding sequence data that limit the performance of many widely-used classification methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to predict the affinity classes of peptide sequences with respect to an associated inorganic material. We first generate a large set of simulated peptide sequences based on our new amino acid transition matrix, and then the probability of test sequences belonging to a specific affinity class is calculated through solving an objective function. In addition, the objective function is solved through iterative propagation of probability estimates among sequences and sequence clusters. Experimental results on a real inorganic material binding sequence dataset show that the proposed framework is highly effective on identifying the affinity classes of inorganic material binding sequences.

Early adoption of mobile devices : a social network perspective

As mobile devices have become the personal information-processing interface of choice, many individuals seem to swiftly follow fashion. Yet, the literature is silent on how early adopters of mobile devices overcome uncertainties related to shifts in technology. Based on purposive sampling, this paper presents detailed insights into why and how five closely related individuals made the decision to adopt the iPhone before it was available through traditional supply chains. Focusing on the role played by social networks, we analyze how adoption threshold, opinion leaders, social contagion, and social learning shaped adoption behaviors and outcomes. The analyses confirm that network structures impact the early decision to accept the iPhone; they show that when facing uncertainty, adoption decisions emerged as a combined result of individual adoption reflections and major influences from the social network as well as behaviors observed within the network, and, they reveal interesting behaviors that differed from expectations. In conclusion, we discuss implications for both theory and practice.

Recombinant human growth hormone for the treatment of growth disorders in children: a systematic review and economic evaluation

Recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) is licensed for short stature associated with growth hormone deficiency (GHD), Turner syndrome (TS), Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS), chronic renal insufficiency (CRI), short stature homeobox-containing gene deficiency (SHOX-D) and being born small for gestational age (SGA). To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rhGH compared with treatment strategies without rhGH for children with GHD, TS, PWS, CRI, SHOX-D and those born SGA. The systematic review used a priori methods. Key databases were searched (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and eight others) for relevant studies from their inception to June 2009. A decision-analytical model was developed to determine cost-effectiveness in the UK. Two reviewers assessed titles and abstracts of studies identified by the search strategy, obtained the full text of relevant papers, and screened them against inclusion criteria. Data from included studies were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Quality of included studies was assessed using standard criteria, applied by one reviewer and checked by a second. Clinical effectiveness studies were synthesised through a narrative review. Twenty-eight randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in 34 publications were included in the systematic review. GHD: Children in the rhGH group grew 2.7 cm/year faster than untreated children and had a statistically significantly higher height standard deviation score (HtSDS) after 1 year: -2.3 ± 0.45 versus -2.8 ± 0.45. TS: In one study, treated girls grew 9.3 cm more than untreated girls. In a study of younger children, the difference was 7.6 cm after 2 years. HtSDS values were statistically significantly higher in treated girls. PWS: Infants receiving rhGH for 1 year grew significantly taller (6.2 cm more) than those untreated. Two studies reported a statistically significant difference in HtSDS in favour of rhGH. CRI: rhGH-treated children in a 1-year study grew an average of 3.6 cm more than untreated children. HtSDS was statistically significantly higher in treated children in two studies. SGA: Criteria were amended to include children of 3+ years with no catch-up growth, with no reference to mid-parental height. Only one of the RCTs used the licensed dose; the others used higher doses. Adult height (AH) was approximately 4 cm higher in rhGH-treated patients in the one study to report this outcome, and AH-gain SDS was also statistically significantly higher in this group. Mean HtSDS was higher in treated than untreated patients in four other studies (significant in two). SHOX-D: After 2 years' treatment, children were approximately 6 cm taller than the control group and HtSDS was statistically significantly higher in treated children. The incremental cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates of rhGH compared with no treatment were: 23,196 pounds for GHD, 39,460 pounds for TS, 135,311 pounds for PWS, 39,273 pounds for CRI, 33,079 pounds for SGA and 40,531 pounds for SHOX-D. The probability of treatment of each of the conditions being cost-effective at 30,000 pounds was: 95% for GHD, 19% for TS, 1% for PWS, 16% for CRI, 38% for SGA and 15% for SHOX-D.

Early adoption of mobile devices : a social network perspective

As mobile devices have become the personal information-processing interface of choice, many individuals seem to swiftly follow fashion. Yet, the literature is silent on how early adopters of mobile devices overcome uncertainties related to shifts in technology. Based on purposive sampling, this paper presents detailed insights into why and how five closely related individuals made the decision to adopt the iPhone before it was available through traditional supply chains. Focusing on the role played by social networks, we analyze how adoption threshold, opinion leaders, social contagion, and social learning shaped adoption behaviors and outcomes. The analyses confirm that network structures impacted the early decision to accept the iPhone; they show that when facing uncertainty, adoption decisions emerged as a combined result of individual adoption reflections and major influences from the social network as well as behaviors observed within the network; and, they reveal interesting behaviors that differed from expectations. In conclusion, we discuss implications for both theory and practice.