981 resultados para Probability Of Target Attainment


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Judging time-to-contact with a target is an important criterion for avoiding harm in everyday walking and running tasks, and maximizing performance in high-velocity sporting tasks. The information-based regulation of step length and duration during target-directed locomotion was examined in relation to gait mode, approach velocity, target task, expertise, and sporting performance during a series of four experiments. The first three experiments examined novice performers (Each n=12, 6 males, 6 females), whilst the last experiment examined expert gymnasts (n=5). Two reference strips with alternating 50cm black and white intervals were placed on either side of the approach strip for all of the experiments. One 50Hz-panning video camera filmed the approach from an elevated position. In Experiment 4, two stationary 250Hz cameras filmed the post-flight performance of the gymnastic vaults and, in addition, two qualified judges provided a performance score for each vaulting trial. The panning video footage in each experiment was digitized to deduce the gait characteristics. In Experiment 4, the high-speed video footage was analyzed three-dimensionally to obtain the performance measures such as post-flight height. The utilization of visual stimulus in target-directed locomotion is affected by the observer's state of motion as characterized by the mode of locomotion and also often the speed of locomotion. In addition, experience plays an important role in the capacity of the observer to utilize visual stimulus to control the muscular action of locomotion when either maintaining or adjusting the step mechanics. The characteristics of the terrain and the target also affect the observer's movement. Visual regulation of step length decreases at higher approach speeds in novice performers, where as expert performers are capable of increasing visual regulation at higher approach speeds. Conservatism in final foot placement by female participants accounts for the observed increase in distance from the critical boundary of the obstacle relative to toe placement. Behavioural effects of gender thus affect the control of final foot placement in obstacle-directed locomotion. The visual control of braking in target-directed locomotion is described by a tau-dot of-0.54. When tau-dot is below -0.54 a hard collision with the obstacle will occur, however, when tau-dot is above -0.54, a soft collision with the target will occur. It is suggested that the tau-dot margin defining the control of braking reveals the braking capacity of the system. In the target-directed locomotion examined a tau-dot greater than -0.70 would possibly exceed the braking capacity of the system, thus, leading to injury if performed. The approach towards the take-off board and vaulting horse in gymnastics is an example of target-directed locomotion in sport. Increased visual regulation of the timing and length of each step is a requirement for a fast running approach, a fundamental building block for the execution of complex vaults in gymnastics. The successful performance of complex vaults in gymnastics leads towards a higher judge's score. Future research suggestions include an investigation of visual regulation of step length in curved target-directed locomotion.

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Habitat loss and fragmentation are recognized as primary drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. To understand the functional effects of habitat fragmentation on bird populations, data on movement across gaps in habitat cover are necessary, although rarely available. In this study, we used call playback to simulate a conspecific territorial intruder to entice birds to move through the landscape in a predictable and directional manner. We then quantified the probability of movement in continuous forest and across cleared gaps for two forest-dependent species, the grey shrike-thrush (Colluricincla harmonica) and the white-throated treecreeper (Cormobates leucophaeus). Fifty-four playback trials were conducted for each species across distances ranging from 25 to 480 m in continuous forest and 15-260 m across gaps in a forest-agricultural landscape in southern Victoria, Australia. The probability of movement was significantly reduced by gaps in forest cover for both species. Shrike-thrushes were six times more likely to move 170 m in continuous forest than to cross 170-m gaps. The mean probability that treecreepers would cross any gap at all was less than 0.5, and they were three times less likely to move 50 m across a gap than through continuous forest. Both species displayed non-linear responses to increasing gap distance: we identified a gap-tolerance threshold of 85 m for the shrike-thrush and 65 m for the treecreeper beyond which individuals were most unlikely to cross. The presence of scattered paddock trees increased functional connectivity for the shrike-thrush, with individuals crossing up to 260 m when scattered trees were present. We conclude that gaps in habitat cover are barriers to movement, and that characteristics of the intervening matrix influence landscape permeability.

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Non-ketotic hyperglycinaemia (NKH) is a devastating neurometabolic disorder leading, in its classical form, to early death or severe disability and poor quality of life in survivors. Affected neonates may need ventilatory support during a short period of respiratory depression. The transient dependence on ventilation dictates urgency in decision-making regarding withdrawal of therapy. The occurrence of patients with apparent transient forms of the disease, albeit rare, adds uncertainty to the prediction of clinical outcome and dictates that the current practice of withholding or withdrawing therapy in these neonates be reviewed. Both bioethics and law take the view that treatment decisions should be based on the best interests of the patient. The medical-ethics approach is based on the principles of non-maleficence, beneficence, autonomy and justice. The law relating to withholding or withdrawing life-sustaining treatment is complex and varies between jurisdictions. Physicians treating newborns with NKH need to provide families with accurate and complete information regarding the disease and the relative probability of possible outcomes of the neonatal presentation and to explore the extent to which family members are willing to take part in the decision making process. Cultural and religious attitudes, which may potentially clash with bioethical and juridical principles, need to be considered.

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Dramatic changes in the information security risk landscape over several decades have not yet been matched by similar changes in organizational information security which is still mainly based on a mindset that security is achieved through extensive preventive controls. As a result, maintenance cost of information security is increasing rapidly, but this increased expenditure has not really made an attack more difficult. The opposite seems to be true, information security attacks have become easier to perpetrate and appear more like information warfare tactics. At the same time, the damage caused by a successful attack has increased significantly and may sometimes become critical to an organization. In this paper we evaluate one particular extremely asymmetric risk where a strongly motivated attacker unleashes a prolonged attack on an organization with the aim to do maximum damage, and suggest that the probability of such an attack is increasing. We discuss how preventive controls are unlikely to ever be effective against such an attack and propose more advanced strategies that aim to limit the damage when such an attack occurs. One crucial lesson to be learned for those organizations that are dependant on their information security, such as critical infrastructure organizations, is the need to deny motivated attackers access to any information about the success of their attack. Successful deception in this area is likely to significantly reduce any potential escalation of the incident.

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One of the key processes in the pathobiology of the malaria parasite is the invasion and subsequent modification of the human erythrocyte. In this complex process, an unknown number of parasite proteins are involved, some of which are leading vaccine candidates. The majority of the proteins that play pivotal roles in invasion are either stored in the apical secretory organelles or located on the surface of the merozoite, the invasive stage of the parasite. Using transcriptional and structural features of these known proteins, we performed a genomewide search that identified 49 hypothetical proteins with a high probability of being located on the surface of the merozoite or in the secretory organelles. Of these candidates, we characterized a novel leucine zipper-like protein in Plasmodium falciparum that is conserved in Plasmodium spp. This protein is expressed in late blood stages and localizes to the rhoptries of the parasite. We demonstrate that this Plasmodium sp.-specific protein has a high degree of conservation within field isolates and that it is refractory to gene knockout attempts and thus might play an important role in invasion.

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Mergers and acquisitions within the Australian-real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) sector have become a noticeable trend in the last decade. Utilising
event study methodology, 36 successful A-REIT mergers and acquisitions
between January 1995 and December 2008 were examined. Both target and
bidding shareholders experience positive excess returns of 4.27% and 0.54%
respectively over the 41 day event window [−20, +20]. Analysis indicates that the
cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for bidding firms are considerably greater
than previous research suggests. This study finds higher bidder CARs when scrip
or a combination of scrip and cash is used to finance the acquisition. We also find
that the relative size or the size of the acquirer have a positive and significant
impact on the excess returns of bidding A-REITs. This suggests that the
synergistic benefits from the acquisition are a result of economies of scale and
increased market power. There is also some evidence that the relative size and
method of payment influence the CARs of target firms during the event window.

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In the shadow of the global financial crisis, the issue of the marketing of credit has become an increasing concern in the past 12 months. Outstanding personal debt in the UK currently stands at £1479 billion and is rising by £1 million every 10.6 min. In Australia, there is currently $44.6 billion worth of outstanding credit card debt, and in the US, $2596 billion was owed on credit cards in 2008. At present, the banking sector utilizes sophisticated research methods to profile consumers, including those who might be considered financially vulnerable. However, the policy frameworks in most industrialized countries do not account for this form of target marketing when considering how to protect vulnerable groups. This paper is an initial attempt to examine the different methods by which profiling is conducted and the policy implications of this sophisticated form of segmentation and targeting. We argue that current consumer policies are inadequate in protecting vulnerable consumers from these marketing techniques, and recent recommendations from the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, and the Australian Law Reform Commission to allow banks and lenders to ‘pre-screen’ potential customers will exacerbate personal debt levels, rather than reducing them.

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Stormwater pipe systems in Australia are designed to convey water from rainfall and surface runoff only and do not transport sewage. Any blockage can cause flooding events with the probability of subsequent property damage. Proactive maintenance plans that can enhance their serviceability need to be developed based on a sound deterioration model. This paper uses a neural network (NN) approach to model deterioration in serviceability of concrete stormwater pipes, which make up the bulk of the stormwater network in Australia. System condition data was collected using CCTV images. The outcomes of model are the identification of the significant factors influencing the serviceability deterioration and the forecasting of the change of serviceability condition over time for individual pipes based on the pipe attributes. The proposed method is validated and compared with multiple discriminant analysis, a traditionally statistical method. The results show that the NN model can be applied to forecasting serviceability deterioration. However, further improvements in data collection and condition grading schemes should be carried out to increase the prediction accuracy of the NN model.

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Context : Designing an appropriate survey protocol requires understanding of how capture rates of target species may be influenced by factors other than on-ground abundance, such as weather conditions or seasonality. This is particularly relevant for ectotherms such as reptiles, as activity can be affected by environmental conditions such as ambient temperature.
Aims : The present study examines factors affecting capture success of reptiles in semi-arid environments of southern Australia, and addresses the following two main questions: (1) what is the influence of weather and seasonal factors on capture rates of reptiles, and (2) what are the implications for developing an effective protocol for reptile surveys?
Methods : We surveyed reptiles using pitfall traps in spring and summer of 2006/07 and 2007/08 at sites (n = 280) throughout the Murray Mallee region of south-eastern Australia. We used mixed-effect regression models to investigate the influence of seasonal and weather-related variables on species’ capture success.
Key results : Total captures of reptiles, and the likelihood of capture of 15 reptile species, increased with rising daily temperature. Greater numbers of individual species were captured during spring than in summer, even though temperatures were cooler. This probably reflects greater levels of activity associated with breeding. Several species were more likely to be captured when maximum or minimum daily temperatures exceeded a certain level (e.g. Lerista labialis, Delma australis, Nephrurus levis). Other factors, such as rainfall and moon phase, also influenced capture success of some species.
Conclusions : Surveys for reptiles in semi-arid environments are likely to capture the greatest diversity of species on warm days in late spring months, although surveys on hot days in summer will enhance detection of particular species (e.g. Morethia boulengeri, Varanus gouldii). We recommend trapping during periods with maximum temperatures exceeding 25–30C and minimum overnight temperatures of 15C. Finally, trapping during rainfall and full-moon events will maximise chances of encountering species sensitive to these variables (blind snakes and geckoes).
Implications : Selecting the most favourable seasonal and weather conditions will help ensure that reptile surveys maximise the likelihood of capturing the greatest diversity of reptiles, while minimising trap-effort required.

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1. The potential for seed dispersal by fish (ichthyochory) is likely to vary within aquatic plant species, depending on intraspecific variation in phenotypic seed traits.

2. We studied the effect of seed size variation within the unbranched burreed (Sparganium emersum) on the potential for internal dispersal by the common carp (Cyprinus carpio), by feeding them light (< 10 mg), medium (10–20 mg) and heavy ( > 20 mg) seeds, seed mass being positively related to seed size.

3. We hypothesized: (i) that ingestion, retention time, survival during gut passage and viability after gut passage of S. emersum seeds would be affected by seed size; and (ii) that this would translate into intraspecific variation in dispersal probability and dispersal distance among seed size categories.

4. Ingestion was negatively related to seed size, while survival during gut passage was positively related to seed size. Seed viability after gut passage was not affected by seed size. Since the negative effect of ingestion was counterbalanced by an equally strong but positive effect on seed survival, the probability of dispersal did not differ between the tested seed-size categories.

5. The time that seeds remained in the digestive tract of carp did not differ between seed sizes, suggesting equal potential dispersal distances for all seeds. Based on optimum swimming speeds of carp, ranging from 0·9 to 1·8 km h−1, maximum dispersal distances will most likely range from 13·5 to 27 km.

6. This study highlights the importance of studying all stages of the endozoochorous dispersal process in order to estimate the effect of a phenotypic seed trait on plant dispersal.

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1. The potential for seed dispersal by fish (ichthyochory) will vary among aquatic plants because of differences in seed size and morphology.

2. To examine how seed morphology influences the probability of dispersal by the common carp (Cyprinus carpio), we studied seed ingestion, retention time and subsequent egestion and germination of seeds of Sparganium emersum and Sagittaria sagittifolia, two aquatic plant species with similar sized but morphologically different seeds.

3. We compared dispersal probabilities between the two plant species, in which the probability of dispersal is assumed to be a function of the probabilities of seed ingestion, egestion and germination, and the dispersal distance is assumed to be a function of seed egestion rate over time.

4. We found that, although the soft seeds of S. sagittifolia had an approximately 1.5 times higher probability of being ingested by the carp than the hard seeds of S. emersum (83.15% ± 1.8% versus 56.16% ± 2.7%, respectively), the latter had an almost twofold higher probability of surviving the passage through the digestive tract (38.58% ± 2.7% versus 20.97% ± 1.5%, respectively). Patterns of seed egestion over time did not differ between the two plant species, despite the difference in seed morphology. Gut passage had a different effect on seed germination between plant species. Compared with non-ingested controls, seeds of S. emersum showed a 12.6% increase in germination and a 2.1 day acceleration in germination rate, whereas seeds of S. sagittifolia displayed a 47.3% decrease and 5.1 day delay, respectively.

5. Our results suggest that seed morphology affects the dispersal probability and postdispersal establishment, but not the dispersal distance, of aquatic plants that are dispersed by fish.

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Vocal recognition may function as a critical factor in maintaining the phocid mother-pup bond during lactation. For vocal recognition to function, the caller must produce individually distinct calls that are recognised by their intended recipient. Mother-pup vocal recognition has been studied extensively in colonial otariids and appears to be characteristic of this family. Although less numerous, empirical studies of phocid species have revealed a range of recognition abilities. This study investigated whether Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) females produce individually distinct 'pup contact' calls that function during natural pair reunions. Fifteen calls from each of nine females recorded in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica were analysed. One temporal, nine fundamental frequency and five spectral characteristics were measured. Results of the cross-validated Discriminant Function Analysis revealed that mothers produce individually distinct calls with 56% of calls assigned to the correct individual. The probability of achieving this level of discrimination on novel data by chance alone is highly improbable. Analysis of eight mother-pup reunions recorded near McMurdo Sound, Antarctica further demonstrated that these 'pup contact' calls function during natural pair reunions. Behavioural analysis also revealed that pups were chiefly responsible for establishing and maintaining close contact throughout the reunion process. Our study therefore demonstrates that Weddell seal females produce calls with sufficient stereotypy to allow pups to identify them during pair reunions, providing evidence of a functioning mother-pup vocal recognition system.

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Background

Grass pollen allergens are the most important cause of hay fever and allergic asthma during summer in cool temperate climates. Pollen counts provide a guide to hay fever sufferers. However, grass pollen, because of its size, has a low probability of entering the lower airways to trigger asthma. Yet, grass pollen allergens are known to be associated with atmospheric respirable particles.
Objective

We aimed (1) to determine the concentration of group 5 major allergens in (a) pollen grains of clinically important grass species and (b) atmospheric particles (respirable and nonrespirable) and (2) to compare the atmospheric allergen load with clinical data to assess different risk factors for asthma and hay fever.
Methods

We have performed a continuous 24 h sampling of atmospheric particles greater and lower than 7.2 μm in diameter during the grass pollen season of 1996 and 1997 (17 October 1996–16 January 1997) by means of a high volume cascade impactor at a height of about 15 m above ground in Melbourne. Using Western analysis, we assessed the reactivity of major timothy grass allergen Phl p 5 specific monoclonal antibody (MoAb) against selected pollen extracts. A MoAb-based ELISA was then employed to quantify Phl p 5 and cross-reactive allergens in pollen extracts and atmospheric particles larger and smaller than 7.2 μm.
Results

Phl p 5-specific MoAb detected group 5 allergens in tested grass pollen extracts, indicating that the ELISA employed here determines total group 5 allergen concentrations. On average, 0.05 ng of group 5 allergens were detectable per grass pollen grain. Atmospheric group 5 allergen concentrations in particles > 7.2 μm were significantly correlated with grass pollen counts (rs = 0.842, P < 0.001). On dry days, 37% of the total group 5 allergen load, whereas upon rainfall, 57% of the total load was detected in respirable particles. After rainfall, the number of starch granule equivalents increased up to 10-fold; starch granule equivalent is defined as a hypothetical potential number of airborne starch granules based on known pollen count data. This indicates that rainfall tended to wash out large particles and contributed to an increase in respirable particles containing group 5 allergens by bursting of pollen grains. Four day running means of group 5 allergens in respirable particles and of asthma attendances (delayed by 2 days) were shown to be significantly correlated (P < 0.001).
Conclusion

Here we present, for the first time, an estimation of the total group 5 allergen content in respirable and nonrespirable particles in the atmosphere of Melbourne. These results highlight the different environmental risk factors for hay fever and allergic asthma in patients, as on days of rainfall following high grass pollen count, the risk for asthma sufferers is far greater than on days of high pollen count with no associated rainfall. Moreover, rainfall may also contribute to the release of allergens from fungal spores and, along with the release of free allergen molecules from pollen grains, may be able to interact with other particles such as pollutants (i.e. diesel exhaust carbon particles) to trigger allergic asthma.

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Pollen allergens have been shown to occur in fine particles much smaller than pollen grains. As such allergenic particles have a high probability of entering the lower human airways, it is important to further investigate their origin and their biological and immunological properties. Accordingly, we have modified the particle collection surface of an Andersen Impactor using adhesive coated microscope slides to enable identification by high resolution microscopic analysis and immunodetection of allergenic particulates.