Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Reversal of the silencing of tetracycline-controlled genes requires the coordinate action of distinctly acting transcription factors.

BACKGROUND: Regulation of genes transferred to eukaryotic organisms is often limited by the lack of consistent expression levels in all transduced cells, which may result in part from epigenetic gene silencing effects. This reduces the efficacy of ligand-controlled gene switches designed for somatic gene transfers such as gene therapy. METHODS: A doxycycline-controlled transgene was stably introduced in human cells, and clones were screened for epigenetic silencing of the transgene. Various regulatory proteins were targeted to the silent transgene, to identify those that would mediate regulation by doxycycline. RESULTS: A doxycycline-controlled minimal promoter was found to be prone to gene silencing, which prevents activation by a fusion of the bacterial TetR DNA-binding domain with the VP16 activator. DNA modification studies indicated that the silenced transgene adopts a poorly accessible chromatin structure. Several cellular transcriptional activators were found to restore an accessible DNA structure when targeted to the silent transgene, and they cooperated with Tet-VP16 to mediate regulation by doxycycline. CONCLUSIONS: Reversal of the silencing of a tetracycline-regulated minimal promoter requires a chromatin-remodeling activity for subsequent promoter activation by the Tet-VP16 fusion protein. Thus, distinct regulatory elements may be combined to obtain long-term regulation and persistent expression of exogenous genes in eukaryotic cells.

Prognostication after cardiac arrest and hypothermia: a prospective study.

Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.

Thérapie cognitive et comportementale pour les hallucinations auditives résistantes au traitement neuroleptique

The aim of this study is to test the feasibility and the efficacy of a cognitive and behavior therapy manual for auditory hallucinations with persons suffering from schizophrenia in a French-speaking environment and under natural clinical conditions. Eight patients met ICD-10 criteria for paranoid schizophrenia, 2 for hebephrenic schizophrenia and 1 for schizoaffective disorder. All were hearing voices daily. Patients followed the intervention for 3 to 6 months according to their individual rhythms. Participants filled up questionnaires at pre-test, post-test and three months follow-up. The instruments were the Belief About Voice Questionnaire--Revised and two seven points scales about frequency of hallucinations and attribution of the source of the voices. Results show a decrease of voices' frequency and improvement in attributing the voices rather to an internal than to an external source. Malevolent or benevolent beliefs about voices are significantly decreased at follow-up as well as efforts at coping with hallucinations. Results should be interpreted with caution because of the small number of subjects. The sample may not be representative of patients with persistent symptoms since there is an over representation of patients with benevolent voices and an under representation of patients with substance misuse

Etat fébrile et Hépatosplénomégalie chez une femme de 25 ans: approche diagnostique [A 25-year-old woman with fever and hepatosplenomegaly: diagnostic approach]

We proceeded to an extensive etiologic search in a young women with a hepatosplenomegaly and a chronic persistent fever. We discuss the differential diagnosis of this situation with a final diagnosis of sarcoidosis.

Peri-prosthetic stress fractures after reversed shoulder arthroplasty

Introduction: Reversed shoulder prostheses have a semi-congruent design. Furthermore, the center of rotation is inferiorly displaced and a significant tension in the deltoid is often necessary to ensure the joint stability. Consequently, stress transmitted to peri-prosthetic bone may be increased, and could lead to stress fractures. We review a series of patients after reversed shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) and look specifically at the occurrence of postoperative peri-prosthetic stress fractures. Methods: Between 2001 and 2006, 46 consecutive RSA were performed. There were 26 women and 20 men with a mean age of 74 years (53-86). All had preoperative MRI or CT-scan, which did not reveal any fracture. All had a delto-pectoral approach with standard rehabilitation. Review was performed at a mean follow up of 30 months (6-60), and consisted of clinical and radiological (plain X-rays) examinations. Every time a fracture was suspected or in case of recurrent unexpected pain, CT-scan evaluations were performed. The occurrence of peri-prosthetic fractures was looked for. Results: Three patients (7%) sustained a scapular fracture (1 spinal and 2 acromial) without any trauma, between 3 and 6 months after the RSA. Furthermore, one of these patients developed 3 months later a spontaneous clavicular fracture, leading to an overall stress fracture rate of 9%. The four fractures were treated conservatively. Three malunions and one acromial non-union occurred. The range of motion in abduction and flexion decreased significantly after the fracture and stayed limited in all cases. All the three patients reported a recurrence of pain. Conclusion: Peri-prosthetic stress fractures, especially in the acromion and in the spine of the scapula are not unusual after RSA. The etiology is not well known. The increase of stress in peri-prosthetic bone may be due to the semi-congruent design and to an overtension of the deltoid. The management of this complication stays difficult. The conservative treatment leads to mal- or non-union, with persistent pain and limited range of motion.