Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Droughts, floods and freshwater ecosystems : evaluating climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hydrologic regimes and freshwater ecosystems, and yet few basins have adequate numerical models to guide the development of freshwater climate adaptation strategies. Such strategies can build on existing freshwater conservation activities, and incorporate predicted climate change impacts. We illustrate this concept with three case studies. In the Upper Klamath Basin of the western USA, a shift in land management practices would buffer this landscape from a declining snowpack. In the Murray–Darling Basin of south-eastern Australia, identifying the requirements of flood-dependent natural values would better inform the delivery of environmental water in response to reduced runoff and less water. In the Savannah Basin of the south-eastern USA, dam managers are considering technological and engineering upgrades in response to more severe floods and droughts, which would also improve the implementation of recommended environmental flows. Even though the three case studies are in different landscapes, they all contain significant freshwater biodiversity values. These values are threatened by water allocation problems that will be exacerbated by climate change, and yet all provide opportunities for the development of effective climate adaptation strategies.

The impacts of recycled water on Great Western vineyard soils

Recycled water has facilitated expansion of viticulture in Great Western, Victoria. The recycled water is of medium salinity, and has high concentrations of nutrients and sodium. Irrigation has resulted in increased topsoil EC, pH, and ESP. Laboratory studies identified spatially heterogeneous soils which present a risk of groundwater and offsite contamination.

The activities and impacts of part-time employment on full time undergraduate students in property and construction courses in Australia

This paper examines the extent of part-time employment of undergraduate students enrolled in property and construction related courses in five universities across Australia. Forty five percent of the students responded to a questionnaire on their part-time work. Past research reveals that there is need for a more accurate understanding as to why students seek part-time work to the extent that they do and that working long hours has a negative effect on the study patterns of undergraduate students. Increased employer work demands results in less time available for study and an inability to attend lectures because of work. There is growing concern that students are increasingly disinterested in connecting with the broader and total university experience and are instead, seeking to adopt a minimalist approach to education.

Analysis of current research for Property and construction students’ results reveals that students are working on average 18 hours per week during semester time. The students therefore appear to be working beyond what is considered beneficial to their studies, although their contextual understanding and work ethic improves.

The paper concludes with some approaches that could re- engage students into the learning process. It may be helpful to develop a partnership between the University and the industry thereby providing work experience that complements the program of study. Otherwise students may not get the range of experience they need and may struggle to find the linkages between theory and practice.

Aquaculture effluent : impacts and remedies for protecting the environment and human health

Knowledge in the field of environmental health is growing rapidly. Within the context of external factors that define its boundaries, environmental health has evolved over time into a complex, multidisciplinary and ill-defined field with uncertain solutions. Many of the key determinants and solutions to environmental health lie outside the direct realm of health and are strongly dependent on environmental changes, water and sanitation, industrial development, education, employment, trade, tourism, agriculture, urbanization, energy, housing and national security. Environmental risks, vulnerability and variability manifest themselves in different ways and at different time scales. While there are shared global and transnational problems, each community, country or region faces its own unique environmental health problems, the solution of which depends on circumstances surrounding the resources, customs, institutions, values and environmental vulnerability. This work will contain critical reviews and assessments of environmental health practices and research that have worked in places and thus can guide programs and economic development in other countries or regions.

Quantifying the potential impacts of increasing agricultural fragmentation on land value

Societal expectations from rural lands have traditionally focused on the production of food and fibre. Yet the perception of rural areas is changing and they are now seen in many instances to be capable of delivering multiple functions or non‐commodity outputs including land conservation and the preservation of biodiversity, contributing to the sustainable management of renewable natural resources and enhancing the socio‐economic viability of many areas . The overall multi‐functionality is constrained or favoured by biophysical and socio‐economic drivers. As these types of drivers vary spatially and temporally, so does the functionality of the landscape and heterogeneous patterns emerge. Associated with multiple functions at a single location are a variety of pressures which can manifest themselves as conflict between interacting land uses. One such conflict in rural zones is that between agricultural use and residential use. Warrnambool City Council (WCC) is a Local Government Area (LGA) in southwest Victoria where the debate surrounding the best use of rural land is currently being debated. In a region where agriculture has historically been the mainstay of the economy there is some resistance to unplanned conversion to residential use. Despite concerns and much strategy being discussed it appears an investigation quantifying the impacts of these conversions is yet to be done. This paper addresses the issue of the allocation of land by using GIS mapping to incorporate economic, social and environmental attributes, and applying a theoretical economic framework for the optimal allocation of land to the comprehensive data set. Marginal values of land for competing purposes are estimated and discussed. The method is relevant for other regions where the rural/residential interface and associated planning decisions are highly topical.

Evaluating the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of a 'natural experiment' in the provision of new walking and cycling infrastructure : methods for the core module of the iConnect study

Introduction Improving infrastructure to support walking and cycling is often regarded as fundamental to encouraging their widespread uptake. However, there is little evidence that specific provision of this kind has led to a significant increase in walking or cycling in practice, let alone wider impacts such as changes in overall physical activity or carbon emissions. Connect2 is a major new project that aims to promote walking and cycling in the UK by improving local pedestrian and cycle routes. It therefore provides a useful opportunity to contribute new evidence in this field by means of a natural experimental study.

Methods and analysis iConnect is an independent study that aims to integrate the perspectives of public health and transport research on the measurement and evaluation of the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of the Connect2 programme. In this paper, the authors report the study design and methods for the iConnect core module. This comprised a cohort study of residents living within 5 km of three case study Connect2 projects in Cardiff, Kenilworth and Southampton, supported by a programme of qualitative interviews with key informants about the projects. Participants were asked to complete postal questionnaires, repeated before and after the opening of the new infrastructure, which collected data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, travel, car fuel purchasing and physical activity, and potential psychosocial and environmental correlates and mediators of those behaviours. In the absence of suitable no-intervention control groups, the study design drew on heterogeneity in exposure both within and between case study samples to provide for a counterfactual.

Ethics and dissemination The study was approved by the University of Southampton Research Ethics Committee. The findings will be disseminated through academic presentations, peer-reviewed publications and the study website (http://www.iconnect.ac.uk) and by means of a national seminar at the end of the study.

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background: To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method: A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results: Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion: Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.

Effects of multiple laser shock processing (LSP) impacts on mechanical properties and wear behaviors of AISI 8620 steel

The aim of this paper was to address the effects of multiple laser shock processing (LSP) impacts with different pulse energy on mechanical properties and wear behaviors of AISI 8620 steel. Wear analyses were conducted by means of calculation of volume loss and scanning electron microscope (SEM) of the wear surface. Surface profiles, roughness and micro-hardness were measured. The micro-structures in the surface layer of the untreated and LSPed samples (treated by multiple LSP impacts) were investigated by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations. Experimental results and analyses indicated that multiple LSP impacts can remarkably improve the wear resistance of AISI 8620 steel, and the wear mechanism of multiple LSP impacts on AISI 8620 steel was also entirely revealed. The wear process of the unpolished sample subjected to multiple LSP impacts can be described as follows: the wear rate was big at the beginning of sliding dry wear, but then decreased after the micro-indention in the sample surface was polished to the disappear. This phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that multiple LSP impacts generate many micro-indents in the sample surface.

Impacts of currency fluctuations on Japanese foreign direct investment

The Japanese currency has appreciated substantially against most other currencies over the last two decades. During the same time Japan has become one of the world's largest providers of FDI. Japan's share of total FDI outflows increased from about 6 percent during the late 70's to 21 percent in 1990 while its share of the total stock of FDI in the world increased from less than 1 percent in 1960 to more than 13 percent in 1993. Not surprisingly, Japan's role in international business in general and its FDI activities, in particular, have attracted considerable attention from researchers world wide. However, much of this attention has been directed towards the patterns and determinants of Japanese foreign direct investment, in particular to the United States. The impact of changes in the value of the Yen on Japanese FDI has been largely overlooked. Thus, this paper fills an important gap in the literature by focusing on the influence of changes of the exchange rate on Japanese foreign direct investment. A comprehensive simultaneous equa-tion model of Japanese FDI is developed on a regional level to gauge the extent to which currency fluctuations affect Japanese FDI activities. The results suggest that the exchange rate is an effective mechanism through which to influence FDI. Thus, the exchange rate should not be overlooked by the World Trade Organisation in its efforts to further liberalise investment through the Multilateral Agreement on Investment.