A diagnostic 'profile' for chance (probability)

This article presents a profiling tools for identifying students knowledge in chance.

Correlation structure and model selection for negative binomial distribution in GEE

A new model selection criterion, termed as the “quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion” (QIC), was proposed by Pan (2001) for GEE models. Cui (2007) developed a general computing program to implement the QIC method for a range of statistical distributions. However, only a special case of the negative binomial distribution was considered in Cui (2007), where the dispersion parameter equals to unity. This article introduces a new computing program that can be applied for the general negative binomial model, where the dispersion parameter can be any fixed value. An example is also given in this article.

Negative beliefs about low back pain are associated with high pain intensity and high level disability in community-based women

Background Although previous studies have investigated beliefs about back pain in clinical and employed populations, there is a paucity of data examining the beliefs of the broader community. We aimed to characterize the beliefs that community-dwelling women have about back pain and its consequences, and to determine whether those with varying levels of pain intensity and disability differ in their beliefs. Methods 542 community-dwelling women, aged 24 to 80 years, were recruited from a research database. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire that included detailed demographic information, the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire (CPG) and the Back Beliefs Questionnaire (BBQ). The CPG examined individuals' levels of pain intensity and disability, and the BBQ investigated their beliefs about back pain and its consequences. Results 506 (93.4%) women returned the study questionnaire. The mean (SD) BBQ score for the cohort was 30.7 (6.0), indicating generally positive beliefs about back pain. However, those women with high intensity pain and high level disability had a mean (SD) score of 28.5 (5.7) and 24.8 (5.7) respectively, which reflects greater negativity about back pain and its consequences. There was an association between negative beliefs and high pain intensity (OR = 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90, 0.99), p = 0.01) and high level disability (OR = 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.97), p = 0.001), after adjusting for confounders. Conclusion This study highlights that although women living in the community were generally positive about back pain, subgroups of women with high pain intensity and high level disability were identified who had more pessimistic views. While a causal relationship cannot be inferred from these cross-sectional data, the results suggest that negative beliefs individuals have about back pain may be predictive of chronic, disabling spinal pain.

The negative impact on nurses of lack of alignment of information systems with public hospital strategic goals

The objectives of this study were to investigate the degree to which hospital information systems are aligned with hospital strategies and how they impact on nurses. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine hospital staff from a range of disciplines in a large public hospital in Australia. The interviews revealed that the focus of hospital information systems on administration has meant that applications to support the patient's clinical journey have been deemed unaffordable. A consequence is that the historic use of the nurses' station as a source of verbal information about patients has continued, with negative impacts on nurses' perceived role and status, and the possible exacerbation of the clash between administrative and clinical cultures. We conclude that hospitals need clear strategies, with alignment of information systems. To do otherwise can undermine culture and morale, while disrupting workflows and patients' clinical journeys.

A conditional probability approach to risk assessment for child sexual offenders with different classes of victim

Specific scales were developed for discriminating child sexual offenders with different classes of victim. The project demonstrates a method of individualising scores on actuarial risk assessment measured in a way that makes them more meaningful for those involved in decision-making about individual child sexual offenders. At present, the only quantifiable approach to specific decision-making relies on a general prediction of future behaviour, based on group data. The Bayesian approach is one method that can be used to assist decision-makers to use this information in ways that lead to the more appropriate management of risk. Ultimately, the better management of known child sexual offenders will lead to fewer offences and a reduction in the number of children who lives are profoundly affected by sexual victimisation.

Alcohol use and negative affect in the offence cycle

Introduction : It is commonly acknowledged that, for many offenders, alcohol use is strongly associated with criminal behaviour. The belief held by many professionals that the two phenomena are associated, probably in a causal way, has led to the inclusion of alcohol use as a ‘criminogenic need’ in many settings where rehabilitation programmes are used to reduce recidivism. However, the mechanisms and pathways involved in the alcohol–crime link remain poorly understood.

Argument and conclusion : This paper reviews the literature relating to alcohol–offending links and draws some inferences about the role of alcohol use as a criminogenic need in offender rehabilitation. It is proposed that the bi-directional relationship between alcohol use and negative affective states is important in understanding the offence cycle, and that deficits in self-regulation not only characterize both alcohol misuse and negative affect but are also implicated in the offending behaviour itself.

Managing stakeholder 'push back', an exploratory investigation into dealing with negative cross cultural communication in a global environment

This paper addresses the issue of a current business phenomenon – ‘push back’. This phenomenon has been experienced by a number of transnational companies. It is embedded in the challenges of cross-cultural communication and involves the linkage of local culture activists with globalisation acitivists in an alliance to stop business growth. This exploratory investigation examines three multinational organisations using qualitative research. From the findings a model has been developed in an attempt to provide practitioners with a framework with which to understand ‘push back’. The complexity of combating alliances of this nature raises challenges for the current approaches to marketing and the need for a multi-stakeholder approach in cross-cultural communication is suggested.

The influence of failure severity and perceived employee effort on consumers' postcomplaint negative WOM intentions in a service guarantee context

This study employed a 2 x 2 full-factorial, between-subjects design experiment examining the influence of failure severity and perceived employee effort on hotel guests’ negative word-ofmouth (WOM) intentions following invocation of a service guarantee. The study involved a sample of 131 online panel members. Results suggest that negative WOM intentions reduced when a greater level of effort is exerted by staff in rectifying the guest’s problem and increased when a more severe failure is experienced. There is a stronger difference in guests’ negative WOM intentions between the high and low employee effort conditions when a minor versus a severe service failure is experienced by guests.