Pattern of recurrence of early breast cancer is different according to intrinsic subtype and proliferation index.

INTRODUCTION Recurrence risk in breast cancer varies throughout the follow-up time. We examined if these changes are related to the level of expression of the proliferation pathway and intrinsic subtypes. METHODS Expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor, Ki-67, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and cytokeratin 5/6 (CK 5/6) was performed on tissue-microarrays constructed from a large and uniformly managed series of early breast cancer patients (N = 1,249). Subtype definitions by four biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14), HER2-enriched (any ER, any PR, HER2+, any Ki-67), triple-negative (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67). Subtype definitions by six biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), HER2-enriched (ER-, PR-, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Luminal-HER2 (ER + and/or PR+, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Basal-like (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK5/6+ and/or EGFR+), triple-negative nonbasal (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK 5/6-, EGFR-). Each four- or six-marker defined intrinsic subtype was divided in two groups, with Ki-67 <14% or with Ki-67 ≥14%. Recurrence hazard rate function was determined for each intrinsic subtype as a whole and according to Ki-67 value. RESULTS Luminal A displayed a slow risk increase, reaching its maximum after three years and then remained steady. Luminal B presented most of its relapses during the first five years. HER2-enriched tumors show a peak of recurrence nearly twenty months post-surgery, with a greater risk in Ki-67 ≥14%. However a second peak occurred at 72 months but the risk magnitude was greater in Ki-67 <14%. Triple negative tumors with low proliferation rate display a smooth risk curve, but with Ki-67 ≥14% show sharp peak at nearly 18 months. CONCLUSIONS Each intrinsic subtype has a particular pattern of relapses over time which change depending on the level of activation of the proliferation pathway assessed by Ki-67. These findings could have clinical implications both on adjuvant treatment trial design and on the recommendations concerning the surveillance of patients.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

The effects of CYP2D6 and CYP3A activities on the pharmacokinetics of immediate release oxycodone.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is high interindividual variability in the activity of drug-metabolizing enzymes catalysing the oxidation of oxycodone [cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 and 3A], due to genetic polymorphisms and/or drug-drug interactions. The effects of CYP2D6 and/or CYP3A activity modulation on the pharmacokinetics of oxycodone remains poorly explored. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: A randomized crossover double-blind placebo-controlled study was performed with 10 healthy volunteers genotyped for CYP2D6 [six extensive (EM), two deficient (PM/IM) and two ultrarapid metabolizers (UM)]. The volunteers randomly received on five different occasions: oxycodone 0.2 mg x kg(-1) and placebo; oxycodone and quinidine (CYP2D6 inhibitor); oxycodone and ketoconazole (CYP3A inhibitor); oxycodone and quinidine+ketoconazole; placebo. Blood samples for plasma concentrations of oxycodone and metabolites (oxymorphone, noroxycodone and noroxymorphone) were collected for 24 h after dosing. Phenotyping for CYP2D6 (with dextromethorphan) and CYP3A (with midazolam) were assessed at each session. KEY RESULTS: CYP2D6 activity was correlated with oxymorphone and noroxymorphone AUCs and C(max) (-0.71 < Spearman correlation coefficient rhos < -0.92). Oxymorphone C(max) was 62% and 75% lower in PM than EM and UM. Noroxymorphone C(max) reduction was even more pronounced (90%). In UM, oxymorphone and noroxymorphone concentrations increased whereas noroxycodone exposure was halved. Blocking CYP2D6 (with quinidine) reduced oxymorphone and noroxymorphone C(max) by 40% and 80%, and increased noroxycodone AUC(infinity) by 70%. Blocking CYP3A4 (with ketoconazole) tripled oxymorphone AUC(infinity) and reduced noroxycodone and noroxymorphone AUCs by 80%. Shunting to CYP2D6 pathway was observed after CYP3A4 inhibition. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Drug-drug interactions via CYP2D6 and CYP3A affected oxycodone pharmacokinetics and its magnitude depended on CYP2D6 genotype.

Bladder cancer index: cross-cultural adaptation into Spanish and psychometric evaluation.

BACKGROUND The Bladder Cancer Index (BCI) is so far the only instrument applicable across all bladder cancer patients, independent of tumor infiltration or treatment applied. We developed a Spanish version of the BCI, and assessed its acceptability and metric properties. METHODS For the adaptation into Spanish we used the forward and back-translation method, expert panels, and cognitive debriefing patient interviews. For the assessment of metric properties we used data from 197 bladder cancer patients from a multi-center prospective study. The Spanish BCI and the SF-36 Health Survey were self-administered before and 12 months after treatment. Reliability was estimated by Cronbach's alpha. Construct validity was assessed through the multi-trait multi-method matrix. The magnitude of change was quantified by effect sizes to assess responsiveness. RESULTS Reliability coefficients ranged 0.75-0.97. The validity analysis confirmed moderate associations between the BCI function and bother subscales for urinary (r = 0.61) and bowel (r = 0.53) domains; conceptual independence among all BCI domains (r ≤ 0.3); and low correlation coefficients with the SF-36 scores, ranging 0.14-0.48. Among patients reporting global improvement at follow-up, pre-post treatment changes were statistically significant for the urinary domain and urinary bother subscale, with effect sizes of 0.38 and 0.53. CONCLUSIONS The Spanish BCI is well accepted, reliable, valid, responsive, and similar in performance compared to the original instrument. These findings support its use, both in Spanish and international studies, as a valuable and comprehensive tool for assessing quality of life across a wide range of bladder cancer patients.

Integrating human indoor air pollutant exposure within Life Cycle Impact Assessment.

Neglecting health effects from indoor pollutant emissions and exposure, as currently done in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), may result in product or process optimizations at the expense of workers' or consumers' health. To close this gap, methods for considering indoor exposure to chemicals are needed to complement the methods for outdoor human exposure assessment already in use. This paper summarizes the work of an international expert group on the integration of human indoor and outdoor exposure in LCA, within the UNEP/ SETAC Life Cycle Initiative. A new methodological framework is proposed for a general procedure to include human-health effects from indoor exposure in LCA. Exposure models from occupational hygiene and household indoor air quality studies and practices are critically reviewed and recommendations are provided on the appropriateness of various model alternatives in the context of LCA. A single-compartment box model is recommended for use as a default in LCA, enabling one to screen occupational and household exposures consistent with the existing models to assess outdoor emission in a multimedia environment. An initial set of model parameter values was collected. The comparison between indoor and outdoor human exposure per unit of emission shows that for many pollutants, intake per unit of indoor emission may be several orders of magnitude higher than for outdoor emissions. It is concluded that indoor exposure should be routinely addressed within LCA.

Alteration in neuromuscular function after a 5 km running time trial

The aim of this study was to characterize the effect of a 5 km running time trial on the neuromuscular properties of the plantar flexors. Eleven well-trained triathletes performed a series of neuromuscular tests before and immediately after the run on a 200 m indoor track. Muscle activation (twitch interpolation) and normalized EMG activity were assessed during maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of plantar flexors. Maximal soleus H-reflexes and M-waves were evoked at rest (i.e. H (MAX) and M (MAX), respectively) and during MVC (i.e. H (SUP) and M (SUP), respectively). MVC significantly declined (-27%; P < 0.001) after the run, due to decrease in muscle activation (-8%; P < 0.05) and M (MAX)-normalized EMG activity (-13%; P < 0.05). Significant reductions in M-wave amplitudes (M (MAX): -13% and M (SUP): -16%; P < 0.05) as well as H (MAX)/M (MAX) (-37%; P < 0.01) and H (SUP)/M (SUP) (-25%; P < 0.05) ratios occurred with fatigue. Following exercise, the single twitch was characterized by lower peak torque (-16%; P < 0.001) as well as shorter contraction (-19%; P < 0.001) and half-relaxation (-24%; P < 0.001) times. In conclusion, the reduction in plantar flexors strength induced by a 5 km running time trial is caused by peripheral adjustments, which are attributable to a failure of the neuromuscular transmission and excitation-contraction coupling. Fatigue also decreased the magnitude of efferent motor outflow from spinal motor neurons to the plantar flexors and part of this suboptimal neural drive is the result of an inhibition of soleus motoneuron pool reflex excitability.

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming.

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis epitope-specific interferon-g production in healthy Brazilians reactive and non-reactive to tuberculin skin test

The interferon (IFN)-γ response to peptides can be a useful diagnostic marker of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) latent infection. We identified promiscuous and potentially protective CD4+ T-cell epitopes from the most conserved regions of MTB antigenic proteins by scanning the MTB antigenic proteins GroEL2, phosphate-binding protein 1 precursor and 19 kDa antigen with the TEPITOPE algorithm. Seven peptide sequences predicted to bind to multiple human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR molecules were synthesised and tested with IFN-γ enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assays using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 16 Mantoux tuberculin skin test (TST)-positive and 16 TST-negative healthy donors. Eighty-eight percent of TST-positive donors responded to at least one of the peptides, compared to 25% of TST-negative donors. Each individual peptide induced IFN-γ production by PBMCs from at least 31% of the TST-positive donors. The magnitude of the response against all peptides was 182 ± 230 x 106 IFN-γ spot forming cells (SFC) among TST-positive donors and 36 ± 62 x 106 SFC among TST-negative donors (p = 0.007). The response to GroEL2 (463-477) was only observed in the TST-positive group. This combination of novel MTB CD4 T-cell epitopes should be tested in a larger cohort of individuals with latent tuberculosis (TB) to evaluate its potential to diagnose latent TB and it may be included in ELISPOT-based IFN-γ assays to identify individuals with this condition.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

The Limits of Discrete Time Repeated Games:Some Notes and Comments

This paper studies the limits of discrete time repeated games with public monitoring. We solve and characterize the Abreu, Milgrom and Pearce (1991) problem. We found that for the "bad" ("good") news model the lower (higher) magnitude events suggest cooperation, i.e., zero punishment probability, while the highrt (lower) magnitude events suggest defection, i.e., punishment with probability one. Public correlation is used to connect these two sets of signals and to make the enforceability to bind. The dynamic and limit behavior of the punishment probabilities for variations in ... (the discount rate) and ... (the time interval) are characterized, as well as the limit payo¤s for all these scenarios (We also introduce uncertainty in the time domain). The obtained ... limits are to the best of my knowledge, new. The obtained ... limits coincide with Fudenberg and Levine (2007) and Fudenberg and Olszewski (2011), with the exception that we clearly state the precise informational conditions that cause the limit to converge from above, to converge from below or to degenerate. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Random Pub- lic Monitoring, Moral Hazard, Stochastic Processes.

Biogeochemical weathering in sedimentary chronosequences of the Rhône and Oberaar Glaciers (Swiss Alps): rates and mechanisms of biotite weathering

We analysed the composition of phyllosilicate minerals in sediments deposited by the Rhone and Oberaar glaciers (Swiss Alps), in order to identify processes and rates of biogeochemical weathering in relation to glacial erosion. The investigated sediments are part of chronosequences consisting of (A) suspended, "fresh" sediment in melt water; (B) terminal moraines from the Little Ice Age (LIA; approximately 1560-1850); and (C) tilts of the Younger Dryas interval (YD; approximately 11'500y BP). Secondary weathering products associated with the suspended sediment have not been observed: we therefore exclude intermittent subglacial storage and weathering of this material and assume that the suspended sediment is directly derived from mechanically abraded bedrock. This implies that biogeochemical weathering processes started once the glacially-derived sediment was deposited in the proglacial area. The combination of a developing vegetation cover, the generally high permeability allowing the percolation of precipitation, and the chemical reactivity related to the dominance of fine-grained material (<63 pm) drives the weathering process and the initial Umbrepts present in LIA profiles undergo podzolisation and lead to the formation of Humods observed in YD profiles. Systematic XRD analyses of these chronosequences show a progressive decrease in biotite contents and a concomitant increase in pedogenically formed vermiculite with increasing sediment age. Biotite contents decrease by 25-50% in the upper 30 cm of the moraines after 145-275 yr in the proglacial environment. Biotite weathering rates are calculated using the difference in the biotite content between unweathered and weathered glacial sediments within the investigated profiles. The reactive mineral surface area is estimated geometrically, both with regards to the total relative surface (WRT) as well as to the relative edge surface (WRE). WRT Biotite weathering rates are estimated as 10(-13)-10-(15) mol(biotite) m(biotite)(-2) s(-1). WRE Biotite weathering rates are on the order of 10(-13)-10(-14) mol(biotite) m(biotite)(-2) s(-1). Biotite weathering rates obtained by this study are in the order of one magnitude higher in comparison to other published field-based weathering rates. Using biotite as an indicator, we therefore suggest that glacially-derived material in the area of the Oberaar and Rhone glaciers is generally subjected to enhanced biogeochemical weathering, starting immediately after deposition in the proglacial zone and subsequently continuing for thousands of years after glacier retreat.

Lifetime alcohol use and overall and cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the role of factors that modulate the association between alcohol and mortality, and to provide estimates of absolute risk of death. DESIGN The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC). SETTING 23 centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS 380 395 men and women, free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack or stroke at enrolment, followed up for 12.6 years on average. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 20 453 fatal events, of which 2053 alcohol-related cancers (ARC, including cancers of upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectal and female breast), 4187 cardiovascular diseases/coronary heart disease (CVD/CHD), 856 violent deaths and injuries. Lifetime alcohol use was assessed at recruitment. RESULTS HRs comparing extreme drinkers (≥30 g/day in women and ≥60 g/day in men) to moderate drinkers (0.1-4.9 g/day) were 1.27 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.43) in women and 1.53 (1.39 to 1.68) in men. Strong associations were observed for ARC mortality, in men particularly, and for violent deaths and injuries, in men only. No associations were observed for CVD/CHD mortality among drinkers, whereby HRs were higher in never compared to moderate drinkers. Overall mortality seemed to be more strongly related to beer than wine use, particularly in men. The 10-year risks of overall death for women aged 60 years, drinking more than 30 g/day was 5% and 7%, for never and current smokers, respectively. Corresponding figures in men consuming more than 60 g/day were 11% and 18%, in never and current smokers, respectively. In competing risks analyses, mortality due to CVD/CHD was more pronounced than ARC in men, while CVD/CHD and ARC mortality were of similar magnitude in women. CONCLUSIONS In this large European cohort, alcohol use was positively associated with overall mortality, ARC and violent death and injuries, but marginally to CVD/CHD. Absolute risks of death observed in EPIC suggest that alcohol is an important determinant of total mortality.

The efficacy of 2-nitrovinylfuran derivatives againstLeishmania in vitro and in vivo

Despite recent advances in the treatment of some forms of leishmaniasis, the available drugs are still far from ideal due to inefficacy, parasite resistance, toxicity and cost. The wide-spectrum antimicrobial activity of 2-nitrovinylfuran compounds has been described, as has their activity against Trichomonas vaginalis and other protozoa. Thus, the aim of this study was to test the antileishmanial activities of six 2-nitrovinylfurans in vitro and in a murine model of leishmaniasis. Minimum parasiticide concentration (MPC) and 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) values for these compounds against the promastigotes of Leishmania amazonensis, Leishmania infantum and Leishmania braziliensis were determined, as were the efficacies of two selected compounds in an experimental model of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by L. amazonensis in BALB/c mice. All of the compounds were active against the promastigotes of the three Leishmania species tested. IC50 and MPC values were in the ranges of 0.8-4.7 µM and 1.7-32 µM, respectively. The compounds 2-bromo-5-(2-bromo-2-nitrovinyl)-furan (furvina) and 2-bromo-5-(2-methyl-2-nitrovinyl)-furan (UC245) also reduced lesion growth in vivo at a magnitude comparable to or higher than that achieved by amphotericin B treatment. The results demonstrate the potential of this class of compounds as antileishmanial agents and support the clinical testing of Dermofural(r) (a furvina-containing antifungal ointment) for the treatment of CL.

Unusual voltage sag event detection in power systems

Three multivariate statistical tools (principal component analysis, factor analysis, analysis discriminant) have been tested to characterize and model the sags registered in distribution substations. Those models use several features to represent the magnitude, duration and unbalanced grade of sags. They have been obtained from voltage and current waveforms. The techniques are tested and compared using 69 registers of sags. The advantages and drawbacks of each technique are listed

Prediction of sustained antihypertensive efficacy of chronic captopril therapy: relationships to immediate blood pressure response and control plasma renin activity

The blood pressure (BP) lowering effect of the orally active angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, captopril (SQ14225), was studied in 59 hypertensive patients maintained on a constant sodium intake. Within 2 hours of the first dose of captopril BP fell from 171/107 to a maximum low of 142/92 mm Hg (p less than 0.001), and after 4 to 8 days to treatment BP averaged 145/94 mm Hg (p less than 0.001). The magnitude of BP drop induced by captopril was significantly correlated to baseline plasma renin activity (PRA) both during the acute phase (r = -0.38, p less than 0.01) and after the 4 to 8-day interval (r = -0.33, p less than 0.01). Because of considerable scatter in individual data, renin profiling was not precisely predictive of the immediate or delayed BP response of separate patients. However, the BP levels achieved following the initial dose of captopril were closely correlated to BP measured after 4 to 8 days of therapy, and appeared to have greater predictive value than control PRA of the long-term efficacy of chronic captopril therapy despite marked BP changes occurring in some patients during the intermediate period. Because of these intermediate BP changes, addition of a diuretic to enhance antihypertensive effectiveness of angiotensin blockade should be restrained for several days after initiation of captopril therapy.