Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

Deposição do radiofósforo em tecidos osseo e dentário demonstrada pela técnica autográfica

The A. presents some autographs showing the localization of phosphorus in osseous and dental tissues. The method has furnished a good histological location, absolutelly identical to the one obtained with silver impregnation. Autographs were made as soon as two hours after radiophosphate administration, pointing to a fast mineral equilibrium.

A vegetação no município de Ilhéus Estado da Bahia: IV - Caracaterísticas analíticas e periodicidade sociológica

It is well-known that diverse groups of vegetation with an analogous but not identical floristic composition show an ecological similarity which leads to a determined type of vegetation. Starting from this fact it becomes evident that the scope of phytosociological work is the establishing of the significance of the species within the association and the discovery of the rules which govern associations. The floristic surveys made in the field have to be analysed statistically so as to obtain satisfactory results. The usefulness of this method depends largely on the possibilities of comparing the results with previous studies of the same kind, in the same country, or elsewhere. The method used in this paper is that of measuring circumferences and counting individuals in the different associations studied because it permits the presentation of the results in tables which show the phytosociological complexity of the Brazilian rain-forests. The classical method of characteristics is valuable because the more evolved an association is the less sociable are the species it contains, so that such groups do not show clear differences between species but rather between sinusia or strata of individuals. Five tables are presented in which several of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics are studied with a view to discussing their value in relation to groups and species. They are: I - Abundance (number of individuals). II - Density (distance in meters between the individuals belonging to each stratum). III - Basal coverture (circles measured in square meters of the mean projection of the individuals on the surface). IV - Basal area (mean circle in square meters occupied by individuals on the surface). V - Frequency, abundance and sociability in relation to occurrence. TABLE I. This table indicates first the number of individuals in relation to the sinusia studied: next, the sum total of the individuals belanging to the strata are given for each association, thus providing the numeric value of the sinusia: finally, the relation between the total number of individuals in the association and the total for the sinusium thus fursnishing the abundance per sinusium, in the classic sence, that is the percentage, or rather the relative number, of the elements which compose the group. CONCLUSIONS. The general character of abundance of the regional vegetation of Ilheos may be summed up in the following way: as an association evolves towards permanent equilibirum the number of individuals the inferior strata diminishes in relation to those of the superior strata which increase. For the shrub sinusium, two important facts were observed: a) in a given association the number of elements of the inferior strata diminishes as the diameter of the individuals increases; b) the percentage of individuals belonging to the shrub sinusium in the sere diminishes as the association evolve. In the subarboreal sinusium it is seen that: in the sere the number of subarboreal individuals does not vary much; whereas in the climax or the prisere there is a fall owing to the equilibrum of the biologic forms. In the arboreal sinusium the following conclusion can be deduced from analogous facts: the number of individuals of the lower strata diminishes as circumference increases. Also, in the sere there is a progressive sequence for the individuals belonging to the superior strata. TABLE II. The relation between the mean distances of individuals belonging to the same stratum and the area of an association is equal to the density. The table shows that the mean density of the association and the distance between the individuals belonging to the strata of the same sinusium in relation to the total number of individuals belonging to the association. CONCLUSIONS. As rule, the density of individuals in the associations studied follows a very general character or at least a regional one: the distance between the individuals in the diverse strata varies according to their abundance and sociability. Two other facts of some sociological importance are: a) in identical strata of the same sere the density of individuals oscillates in an analogous manner in teh subclimaces and varies in the stages which have reached equilibrium. b) the density of individuals varias in accordance with the sinusium and the distances between individuals of the same sinusium varg in accordance with the strata. TABLE III. This table presents the mean basal individual coverture, that is the mean projection of the frond of the various individuals belonging to the same stratum. The means were obtained by measurement in the field, of 100 individuals belonging to each stratum and their projection on the surface. In the latoratory these measurements were converted into mean circles (in square meters) and the result was multiplied by the individuals belonging to the strata corresponding to the sinusium of each association. The result obtained is named basal coverture. CONCLUSIONS. As a rule, the basal coverture of the vegetation of the county of Ilhéus indicates that: in the evolution of the vegetation the basal coverture of the arbustive sinusium diminishes progressively whereas that of the arboreal one increases. The special norms obtained are: 1) in the shrub sinusium the basal coverture seems to follow a uniform norm, that is, in stages of evolution of the subclimax the basal coverture oscillates with a certain uniformity. 2) in the subarboreal sinusium this fact is related to the vitality and age of the species, as in the subclimax the number of young trees is large and the vitality of the species very variable. This permits the conclusion that: in the sere the basal coverture increases with the evolution of the vegetation and diminishes when an equilibrium is reached. 3) in the tree sinusium the climax association of the prisere and subsere seem to obey a binomial rule, as the coverture (density-abundance) increases until a determined stratum is reached and...

Estudos dos agrupamentos vegetativos relacionados com as áreas onde foram efetuadas as pesquisas sôbre a febre amarela silvestre no Município de Passos, Estado de Minas Gerais

The work reported here was carried-out on the invitation of Dr. Henry Kumm, Director of the Rockefeller Foundation, and by appointment from Dr. Henrique Aragão, Director of the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. It was done during the investigation of sylvan yellow fever, in June 1947, with a view to establishing the phyto-ecological conditions of the county of Passos. The pe¬riod was, however, too short for definite conclusions to be reached. Thanks are due to Dr. O. R. Causey, Chief of Research on Yellow Fever for transpor¬tation and other help. THE REGIONAL VEGETATION. Aerial photographs of the county of Passos shoto that it is covered by three great types of vegetation: Rain Forest, Secondary Pasture Land and Scrub.1 Detailed investigation, however, brings out the fact that these correspond to different seres; furthermore, each type presents not only the specific, characteristics of the biological form dominant for the climate, but also are at various stages, which express HABITATS differing from those of the normal sere. The phytogeographic survey of the region shows that most of it is now covered by secondary pasture land (disclimax) in which Melinis minutiflora, v. "fat grass" (fig. 1), predominates. The mosaic of Rain Forest and of small patches of Scrub reveals the effects of human intervention (BARRETO, H. L. de Mello 1); consequently, all the formations have to be regarded as secon¬dary, though some of them probably include relicts of the primitive climax (WARMING, E. 2). On close examination, the Scrub cannot be considered as the climax, because of the following facts: 1. In the zone of Rain-Forest stretches of forest are present in very varied topographic conditions and the reconstitution of the associations show that man has destroyed an ecological unit (fig. 2). 2. In the zone of Scrub the characteristic patches are small. The banks of rivers and brooks, the valleys and ravine and whatever the soil has retained some humidity, is being invaded fry Rain Forest, which seems to be growing under optimum conditions. The Scrub is thus limited to small belts on the calcareous mountains and on sandy soils with alcaline depths (pH abo¬ve 7) which do not retain enough moisture for the Rain Forest that is progres¬sively restricting the area occupied by Scrub. In view of the topographic and present climatic conditions the Rain Forest must consequently be regarded as the regional climax. The presence of ecologically contradictory elements and associations shows that the real problem is that of the fluctuations of the climate of Passos or even of Minas Geraes during the quaternary and recent periods (DAN-SEREAU, P. : 3), a subject on which little is known and which is tied to the evolution of the climate of Brazil (OLIVEIRA, E. : 4) . The transformation of Scrub into Rain Forest has been - observed by the author before, in other parts of Brazil (VELOSO, PL P.: 5) . It seems probable that the Rio Grande has also greatly influenced the change of the regional vegetation, by invading areas of Scrub and dislocating the limit of the Pluvial climate towards the Canastra Range, though there are remnants of Scrub (postclimax) transfor¬med into secondary open country (disclimax, fig. 5) by human devastation and the setting of fire to the land. VEGETATION GROUPS OF THE PLUVIAL TYPE. The map of the region also shows that at the present time the small patches of forest (whether devasted or intact) occupy the least accessible places, such as valleys, peaks and abrupt slopes (fig. 2). Even these are now being destroyed, so that in the near future this forested region will be en¬tirely reduced to poor pasture land unless energetic measures of conservation are undertaken in time. The Special Service for Prophylaxis against Yellow Fever installed two of their four Stations for the Capture of Mosquitos in this area, one of them at Batatal and the other at Cachoeira, which have separate formations each of them composed of several associations. Other vegetation formations were also analysed, from the synecological point of view, so as to ascertain of which degree of succession their associations belong. These phytosociological sur¬veys give an idea of the principal characteristics of each station. BATATAL FORMATION. The abrupt nature of the valley has rendered this location inappropriate for agricultural purposes since colonial times. The relict of the primitive forest climax saved by this circumstance has expanded gradually to zones whose paedologic conditions favour the eatablishment of mesophilous species. The aerial photograph shows two small stretches of forest, one apparently primi¬tive, the other composed of associations belonging to the subclimax of the subsere. CACHOEIRA FORMATION. Aerial photographs show that this station is crossed by a small river, which divides it into two separate parts. The first, which presents ecological conditions similar, though not identical to those of Batatal, is favoured by topography and apparently remains primitive forest. Though the topography of the other, on the whole, favours the establishment of groups belonging to the normal sere of the climax, is has been partly devastated recently and the aspect of the associations has been completely modified. It was is this part that the four posts for the capturing of mosquitos were set up. The first forest is favoured by deposition of organic matter, washed out from the nearby devasted areas by torrential rains, and thus provides, an appropriate HABITAT for the climax species with certain hygrophilous trends of the ecological quasiclimax type. This association seems to have reached a biological equilibrium, as the dominates. Gallesia gorarema and Cariniana legalis (fig. 10), present an optimum vitality with a vigorous habit and a normal evolutionary cycle. The Cariniantum legalis Gallesiosum equilibrium, corresponds however, to a provisory association, because if the moving of soil by torrential rains should cease it would become possible…

Contractive metrics for a Boltzmann equation for granular gases: diffusive equilibriaThe Patterson-Sullivan embedding and minimal volume entropy for outer space

We quantify the long-time behavior of a system of (partially) inelastic particles in a stochastic thermostat by means of the contractivity of a suitable metric in the set of probability measures. Existence, uniqueness, boundedness of moments and regularity of a steady state are derived from this basic property. The solutions of the kinetic model are proved to converge exponentially as t→ ∞ to this diffusive equilibrium in this distance metrizing the weak convergence of measures. Then, we prove a uniform bound in time on Sobolev norms of the solution, provided the initial data has a finite norm in the corresponding Sobolev space. These results are then combined, using interpolation inequalities, to obtain exponential convergence to the diffusive equilibrium in the strong L¹-norm, as well as various Sobolev norms.

Dynamic matching and bargaining: the role of deadlines

We consider a dynamic model where traders in each period are matched randomly into pairs who then bargain about the division of a fixed surplus. When agreement is reached the traders leave the market. Traders who do not come to an agreement return next period in which they will be matched again, as long as their deadline has not expired yet. New traders enter exogenously in each period. We assume that traders within a pair know each other's deadline. We define and characterize the stationary equilibrium configurations. Traders with longer deadlines fare better than traders with short deadlines. It is shown that the heterogeneity of deadlines may cause delay. It is then shown that a centralized mechanism that controls the matching protocol, but does not interfere with the bargaining, eliminates all delay. Even though this efficient centralized mechanism is not as good for traders with long deadlines, it is shown that in a model where all traders can choose which mechanism to

Efficient bidding with externalities

We implement a family of efficient proposals to share benefits generated in environments with externalities. These proposals extend the Shapley value to games with externalities and are parametrized through the method by which the externalities are averaged. We construct two slightly different mechanisms: one for environments with negative externalities and the other for positive externalities. We show that the subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes of these mechanisms coincide with the sharing proposals.

Collusion and fights in an experiment with price-setting firms and production in advance

We present results from 50-round market experiments in which firms decide repeatedly both on price and quantity of a completely perishable good. Each firm has capacity to serve the whole market. The stage game does not have an equilibrium in pure strategies. We run experiments for markets with two and three identical firms. Firms tend to cooperate to avoid fights, but when they fight bankruptcies are rather frequent. On average, pricing behavior is closer to that for pure quantity than for pure price competition and price and efficiency levels are higher for two than for three firms. Consumer surplus increases with the number of firms, but unsold production leads to higher efficiency losses with more firms. Over time prices tend to the highest possible one for markets both with two and three firms.

Fairness under uncertainty with indivisibilities

I analyze an economy with uncertainty in which a set of indivisible objects and a certain amount of money is to be distributed among agents. The set of intertemporally fair social choice functions based on envy-freeness and Pareto efficiency is characterized. I give a necessary and sufficient condition for its non-emptiness and propose a mechanism that implements the set of intertemporally fair allocations in Bayes-Nash equilibrium. Implementation at the ex ante stage is considered, too. I also generalize the existence result obtained with envy-freeness using a broader fairness concept, introducing the aspiration function.

Interest rate determination in the interbank market

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of equilibrium in the market for daily funds. We use the EONIA panel database which includes daily information on the lending rates applied by contributing commercial banks. The data clearly shows an increase in both the time series volatility and the cross section dispersion of rates towards the end of the reserve maintenance period. These increases are highly correlated. With respect to quantities, we find that the volume of trade as well as the use of the standing facilities are also larger at the end of the maintenance period. Our theoretical model shows how the operational framework of monetary policy causes a reduction in the elasticity of the supply of funds by banks throughout the reserve maintenance period. This reduction in the elasticity together with market segmentation and heterogeneity are able to generate distributions for the interest rates and quantities traded with the same properties as in the data.

The behavior of money velocity in low and high inflation countries

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand where the velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant as in standard cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). The model provides an explanation of why, for a sample of 79 countries, the correlation between the velocity of money and the inflation rate appears to be low, unlike common wisdom would suggest. The reason is the diverse transaction technologies available in different economies.

Choosing how to choose: self-stable majority rules and constitutions

Constitutional arrangements affect the decisions made by a society. We study how this effect leads to preferences of citizens over constitutions; and ultimately how this has a feedback that determines which constitutions can survive in a given society. Constitutions are stylized here, to consist of a voting rule for ordinary business and possibly different voting rule for making changes to the constitution. We deffine an equilibrium notion for constitutions, called self-stability, whereby under the rules of a self-stable constitution, the society would not vote to change the constitution. We argue that only self-stable constitutions will endure. We prove that self-stable constitutions always exist, but that most constitutions (even very prominent ones) may not be self-stable for some societies. We show that constitutions where the voting rule used to amend the constitution is the same as the voting rule used for ordinary business are dangerously simplistic, and there are (many) societies for which no such constitution is self-stable rule. We conclude with a characterization of the set of self-stable constitutions that use majority rule for ordinary business.