Determination of eddy-diffusivity in the lowermost stratosphere

We present a 2D-advection-diffusion model that simulates the main transport pathways influencing tracer distributions in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). The model describes slow diabatic descent of aged stratospheric air, vertical (cross-isentropic) and horizontal (along isentropes) diffusion within the LMS and across the tropopause using equivalent latitude and potential temperature coordinates. Eddy diffusion coefficients parameterize the integral effect of dynamical processes leading to small scale turbulence and mixing. They were specified by matching model simulations to observed CO distributions. Interestingly, the model suggests mixing across isentropes to be more important than horizontal mixing across surfaces of constant equivalent latitude, shining new light on the interplay between various transport mechanisms in the LMS. The model achieves a good description of the small scale tracer features at the tropopause with squared correlation coefficients R2 = 0.72…0.94.

Evidence of a universal scaling relationship for leaf CO2 drawdown along an aridity gradient

The leaf carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) of C3 plants is inversely related to the drawdown of CO2 concentration during photosynthesis, which increases towards drier environments. We aimed to discriminate between the hypothesis of universal scaling, which predicts between-species responses of δ13C to aridity similar to within-species responses, and biotic homoeostasis, which predicts offsets in the δ13C of species occupying adjacent ranges. The Northeast China Transect spans 130–900 mm annual precipitation within a narrow latitude and temperature range. Leaves of 171 species were sampled at 33 sites along the transect (18 at ≥ 5 sites) for dry matter, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area (SLA) and δ13C. The δ13C of species generally followed a common relationship with the climatic moisture index (MI). Offsets between adjacent species were not observed. Trees and forbs diverged slightly at high MI. In C3 plants, δ13C predicted N per unit leaf area (Narea) better than MI. The δ13C of C4 plants was invariant with MI. SLA declined and Narea increased towards low MI in both C3 and C4 plants. The data are consistent with optimal stomatal regulation with respect to atmospheric dryness. They provide evidence for universal scaling of CO2 drawdown with aridity in C3 plants.

The phenology of phytoplankton blooms: ecosystems indicators from remote sensing

Remote sensing offers many advantages in the development of ecosystem indicators for the pelagic zone of the ocean. Particularly suitable in this context are the indicators arising from time series that can be constructed from remotely sensed data. For example, using ocean-colour radiometry, the phenology of phytoplankton blooms can be assessed. Metrics defined in this way show promise as informative indicators for the entire pelagic ecosystem. A simple phytoplankton–substrate model, with forcing dependent on latitude and day number is used to explore the qualitative features of bloom phenology for comparison with the results observed in a suite of 10-year time series of chlorophyll concentration, as assessed by remote sensing, from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. The model reveals features of the dynamics that might otherwise have been overlooked in evaluation of the observational data.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

SRTM resample with short distance-low nugget kriging

The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), was flow on the space shuttle Endeavour in February 2000, with the objective of acquiring a digital elevation model of all land between 60 degrees north latitude and 56 degrees south latitude, using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques. The SRTM data are distributed at horizontal resolution of 1 arc-second (similar to 30m) for areas within the USA and at 3 arc-second (similar to 90m) resolution for the rest of the world. A resolution of 90m can be considered suitable for the small or medium-scale analysis, but it is too coarse for more detailed purposes. One alternative is to interpolate the SRTM data at a finer resolution; it will not increase the level of detail of the original digital elevation model (DEM), but it will lead to a surface where there is the coherence of angular properties (i.e. slope, aspect) between neighbouring pixels, which is an important characteristic when dealing with terrain analysis. This work intents to show how the proper adjustment of variogram and kriging parameters, namely the nugget effect and the maximum distance within which values are used in interpolation, can be set to achieve quality results on resampling SRTM data from 3"" to 1"". We present for a test area in western USA, which includes different adjustment schemes (changes in nugget effect value and in the interpolation radius) and comparisons with the original 1"" model of the area, with the national elevation dataset (NED) DEMs, and with other interpolation methods (splines and inverse distance weighted (IDW)). The basic concepts for using kriging to resample terrain data are: (i) working only with the immediate neighbourhood of the predicted point, due to the high spatial correlation of the topographic surface and omnidirectional behaviour of variogram in short distances; (ii) adding a very small random variation to the coordinates of the points prior to interpolation, to avoid punctual artifacts generated by predicted points with the same location than original data points and; (iii) using a small value of nugget effect, to avoid smoothing that can obliterate terrain features. Drainages derived from the surfaces interpolated by kriging and by splines have a good agreement with streams derived from the 1"" NED, with correct identification of watersheds, even though a few differences occur in the positions of some rivers in flat areas. Although the 1"" surfaces resampled by kriging and splines are very similar, we consider the results produced by kriging as superior, since the spline-interpolated surface still presented some noise and linear artifacts, which were removed by kriging.

Modelling the diffuse fraction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface

For various applications it is necessary to know not only global solar radiation values, but also the diffuse and beam components. Because often only global values are available, there have been several models developed to establish correlations between the diffuse fraction and various predictors. These typically include the clearness index, but also may include the solar angle, temperature and humidity. The clearness index is the proportion of extraterrestrial radiation reaching a location, where the extraterrestrial value used in the calculation varies with latitude and time of year. These correlations have been developed using data principally from latitudes greater than 40°, often using only data from a few locations and with few exceptions have not used solar altitude as a predictor. Generally the data consist of hourly integrated values. A model has been developed using hourly data from a weather station set up at Deakin University, Geelong. Another model has also been developed for 15 minute data values in order to ascertain if the smoothing generated by using hourly data makes a significant difference to overall results. The construction of such models has been investigated, enabling an extension to the research, inclusive of other stations, to be performed systematically. A final investigation was carried out, using data from other Australian locations, to explain some of the considerable scatter by adding apparent solar time as a predictor, which proved to be significantly better than solar altitude.

Geographical variation in bill size across bird species provides evidence for Allen's rule

Allen’s rule proposes that the appendages of endotherms are smaller, relative to body size, in colder climates, in order to reduce heat loss. Empirical support for Allen’s rule is mainly derived from occasional reports of geographical clines in extremity size of individual species. Interspecific evidence is restricted to two studies of leg proportions in seabirds and shorebirds. We used phylogenetic comparative analyses of 214 bird species to examine whether bird bills, significant sites of heat exchange, conform to Allen’s rule. The species comprised eight diverse taxonomic groups—toucans, African barbets, Australian parrots, estrildid finches, Canadian galliforms, penguins, gulls, and terns. Across all species, there were strongly significant relationships between bill length and both latitude and environmental temperature, with species in colder climates having significantly shorter bills. Patterns supporting Allen’s rule in relation to latitudinal or altitudinal distribution held within all groups except the finches. Evidence for a direct association with temperature was found within four groups (parrots, galliforms, penguins, and gulls). Support for Allen’s rule in leg elements was weaker, suggesting that bird bills may be more susceptible to thermoregulatory constraints generally. Our results provide the strongest comparative support yet published for Allen’s rule and demonstrate that thermoregulation has been an important factor in shaping the evolution of bird bills.

A global heterothermic continuum in mammals

Aim: The ability of endotherms to physiologically regulate body temperature (Tb) is presumed to be important in the adaptive radiation of birds and mammals. Recently, attention has shifted towards determining the extent and energetic significance of Tb variation documented in an ever-expanding list of species. Thus, we provide the first global synthesis of ecological and evolutionary correlates of variation in mammalian Tb. Location: World-wide Methods: We conducted a phylogenetically informed analysis of Tb variation using two complementary metrics, namely Thermoregulatory Scope (TS) and Heterothermy Index (HI), that treat Tb variation as a continuous variable. We included morphological (e.g. body mass), ecological (e.g. food habits) and environmental (e.g. latitude) correlates in the analysis. Results: Among 560 mammal species included in the TS analysis, Tb relates most strongly to body mass (included in all models), season (relative parameter weight: 0.95), absolute latitude (0.80) and hoarding behavior (0.72), with small-bodied, high latitude and non-hoarding species expressing the most Tb variation. Small-bodied and high latitude species also express a greater range of thermoregulatory patterns than large-bodied and low latitude species. Results were generally similar in HI analysis, but in summer the extent of heterothermy decreases with latitude. Main conclusions: Mammalian heterothermy is related to evolutionary history, climate conditions constraining minimum Tb, resource conditions mediating energy supply for maintaining high Tb, and latitudinal variation in the nature of seasonality. Our analysis further shows that traditional classification of mammals as hibernators, daily heterotherms or homeotherms is clouded or possibly misleading.

Estética do apocalipse: (re) considerações acerca da (des) arborização urbana de Natal e seu contributo à saúde pública

This study intends to establish a relation between environmental degradation, particularly the devastation of the green canopy, and public health. Utilizing a mapping of the trees included in the researched area, each individual tree was analyzed according to its age, taxonomic listing, architecture, shape and size (determined by aesthetic/convenience reasons or deformed by pruning). Initially investigated were the covert reasons lying underneath the constant aggression against trees (which many times seem to contain elements of hatred and contempt) within the urban environment. In addition to that, the aspects concerning environmental modifications and the consequent impact on public health were also assessed. Two main problems promptly emerged as a result of the removal of trees: a) without a canopy to protect the areas, they became subject to winds directly blown from SW Africa and impregnated with aerosol partic les, which are common causes for respiratory disorders and, b) direct UV solar radiation, which causes some types of skin cancers and eye disorders. To reach such results, we studied the origins and formation of UV radiation induced cancers and searched for the UV radiation spectra of action, e.g., usual intensity and quantity reaching clear and shadowed spaces in a certain area and its consequences. In a second instance, we also searched for pertinent data resources in order to confirm the increase of skin cancer cases due to exposure to UV radiation and the relation between the destruction of the green canopy and the above mentioned problems. We believe that a few significant results have been achieved by this study, namely: the relation between a culture based on medieval beliefs and its consequences on the environment; how this culture exploits and deforms nature in pursuit of financial and psychological interests to a point of transforming the landscape into a copy of something devoid of any relation to latitude and altitude; and above all, the indifference concerning the alarming results carried by these modifications

Influência do alinhamento de plantio na severidade da mancha-preta-dos-citros, produção e qualidade do suco

Os níveis de incidência e severidade de sintomas das doenças resultam da interação hospedeiro-patógeno-ambiente. Nesse contexto, a favorabilidade do ambiente, em particular, depende do nível de umidade, intensidade de radiação solar, luminosidade e molhamento foliar, dentre outros fatores. Por outro lado, a magnitude de expressão desses fatores é dependente do ciclo e porte das plantas, e possivelmente, também, do alinhamento de plantio. No presente estudo, foi avaliada a influência dos alinhamentos de plantio N-S, L-O, NE-SO E NO-SE no desempenho agronômico de plantas de laranjas 'Natal'e 'Valência', assim como na severidade de sintomas da mancha-preta-dos-citros (MPC), causada por Guignardia citricarpa. Para tal, foram selecionadas cinco propriedades distribuídas ao longo do cinturão citrícola paulista, de talhões semelhantes, a partir das quais foram coletadas amostras de 50 frutos, em dez plantas de mesma linha, da região central dos mesmos. Tais frutos foram levados para laboratórios e analisados quanto aos níveis de severidade de sintomas da MPC, produção e qualidade do suco. Constatouse que os frutos oriundos de pomares implantados no alinhamento N-S apresentavam menores níveis de severidade da doença, enquanto no alinhamento NE-SO, os mais elevados. Propriedades localizadas mais ao sul do Estado de São Paulo apresentaram menores níveis de doença, provavelmente em consequência da ocorrência recente da doença em tais áreas. em relação à produção, os alinhamentos de plantio N-S e L-O proporcionaram maior número de frutos por planta, assim como quanto ao número de caixas por planta. Por outro lado, a menor produção foi verificada nos alinhamentos NO-SE. em relação à qualidade do suco, não foi possível estabelecer um padrão definido em termos de ratio e ºBrix e os respectivos alinhamentos de plantio. Foi verificado que os valores de ratio foram menores nos frutos de pomares localizados mais ao sul do Estado, de maiores latitudes.

Chaotic diffusion caused by close encounters with several massive asteroids The (4) Vesta case

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimates of hourly diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces in southeast of brazil

The global radiation incident on a tilted surfaces consists of components direct, diffuse and reflected from the ground. On a hourly database, the direct radiation can be calculated by geometric projections (ratio of the incidence angle to the solar zenith angle). The reflected radiation has a small effect on calculations and may be calculated with an isotropic model. Both components presents dependence of measures in incidence or horizontal surface. The great difficulty is to evaluate the diffuse radiation by variations of circumsolar, brightness horizontal, isotropic and anisotropic subcomponents. This study evaluated twenty models to estimate hourly diffuse radiation incident on tilted surfaces at 12.85° (latitude - 10°), 22.85° (latitude) and 32.85° (latitude + 10°) facing to North, under different cloudiness sky conditions, in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil (22°53' S, 48°26' W and 786 m above the mean sea level). In contrast, models for estimating the diffuse component show major differences, which justify the validation for local calibrations. There is a decrease of the maximum total radiation scattered with increasing atmospheric transmissivity and inclination angle. The best results are obtained by anisotropic models: Ma and Iqbal, Hay, Reindl et al. and Willmott; isotropic: Badescu and Koronakis, and the Circumsolar model. The increase of the inclination angle allows for a reduction in the performance of statistical parametric models for estimating the hourly diffuse radiation.

Mobilidade asteroidal induzida por encontros próximos com vários asteroides massivos

Pós-graduação em Física - FEG