Tourism time series forecast

In this chapter four combinations of input features and the feedforward, cascade forward and recurrent architectures are compared for the task of forecast tourism time series. The input features of the ANNs consist in the combination of the previous 12 months, the index time modeled by two nodes used to the year and month and one input with the daily hours of sunshine (insolation duration). The index time features associated to the previous twelve values of the time series proved its relevance in this forecast task. The insolation variable can improved results with some architectures, namely the cascade forward architecture. Finally, the experimented ANN models/architectures produced a mean absolute percentage error between 4 and 6%, proving the ability of the ANN models based to forecast this time series. Besides, the feedforward architecture behaved better considering validation and test sets, with 4.2% percentage error in test set.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Acoustic analysis of vocal dysphonia

Voice acoustic analysis is becoming more and more usefúl in diagnosis of voice disorders or laryngological pathologies. The facility to record a voice sigiial is an advantage over other invasive techniques. This paper presents the statistical analyzes ofa set of voice parameters like jitter, shimmer and HNR over a 4 groups of subjects vvith dysphonia, fünctional dysphonia, hyperfünctional dysphonia, and psychogenic dysphonia and a control group. No statistical signifícance differences over pathologic groups were found but clear tendencies can be seen between pathologic and control group. The tendencies indicates this parameters as a good features to be used in an intelligent diagnosis system, moreover the jitter and shimmer parameters measured over different tones and vowels.

Ambulatory electrocardiogram prototype

The use of electrocardiogram nowadays, is very important in diagnosis of heart disease. The emergent increase of portable technology provides medica] monitoring of vital signs allowing freedom ofmovement and watching during normal activity of the patient. In this shidy, it is described the development of a prototype of an ambulatory cardiac monitoring system using 3 leads. The systems consists on conversion of an analog signal, having been previously processed and conditioned, into digital ECG signal and after processed with a microcontroller (MCU). The heartbeat rate can be observed in an LCD display. The LCD display is also used as the interface during the setup process. Ali digital data stream can be stored on a SD memory card llowing the ECG signa] to be accessed later on a PC.

Electroencephalogram cepstral distances in alzheimer’s disease diagnosis

Alzheimer's disease (AD) represents one ofthe greatest public health challenges worldwide nowadays, because it affects millions of people ali o ver the world and it is expected that the disease will increase considerably in the near future. This study is the first application attempt of cepstral analysis on Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to find new parameters in arder to achieve a better differentiation belween EEGs of AD patients and Control subjects. The results show that the methodology that uses a combined Wavelet (WT) Biorthogonal (Bior) 3.5 and cepstrum analysis was able to describe the EEG dynamics with a higher discriminative power than the other WTs/spectmm methodologies m previous studies. The most important significance figures were found in cepstral distances between cepstrums oftheta and alpha bands (p=0. 00006<0. 05).

Influência do estado nutricional materno em vitamina A sobre os níveis de imunoglobulina A no colostro humano

Mothers with good vitamin A nutritional status during gestation and lactation are better able to nourish and protect their infant with maternal milk. Our hypothesis is that women with more serum retinol have more retinol and secretory immunoglobulin A in colostrum. 190 healthy puerperal women from a Brazilian public maternity were recruited and divided according to the cutoff point for serum retinol (30 μg/dL). A number of the women was supplemented with 200000 UI (60 mg) of retinyl palmitate in the immediate postpartum. Serum and colostrum were collected on the 1st day postpartum and colostrum again on the following day. Retinol (serum and colostrum) was analyzed by HPLC and SIgA (colostrum) by turbidimetry. The mothers presented with adequate biochemical indicators of nutritional status, according to serum retinol (44.6 μg/dL). There were significant differences (p= 0.0017 and p= 0.043, respectively) in retinol and SIgA levels in the colostrum of mothers with serum retinol > 30 μg/dL and < 30 μg/dL. The concentration of SIgA in the colostrum of non-supplemented mothers on the 1st day postpartum was 822.6 mg/dL, decreasing after 24 hours to 343.7 mg/dL. Supplemented mothers showed levels of SIgA in colostrum of 498.9 mg/dL on the 2nd day postpartum (p= 0.00006). The colostrum of women with good vitamin A nutritional status had more retinol and SIgA. Additionally, maternal supplementation increases the levels of SIgA in colostrum. The higher levels of SIgA on the 1st day postpartum showed the importance of early breastfeeding, given that it provides considerable immunological benefits to newborn infants

Purificação, caracterização e efeitos imunomodulatório e antiproliferativo de uma lectina do fungo Clavaria cristata (Holmsk.) Pers

A 140,0 kDa lectin was purified and characterized from the mushroom Clavaria cristata. The purification procedures from the crude extract of the mushroom comprised gel filtration chromatography on Sephacryl s200 and ion exchange on Resource Q column. The purified lectin agglutinated all types of human erythrocytes with preference for trypsinized type O erythrocytes. The haemagglutinating activity is dependent of Ca 2+ ions and was strongly inhibited by the glycoprotein bovine submaxillary mucin (BSM) up to the concentration of 0, 125 mg/mL. The C. cristata lectin (CcL) was stable in the pH range of 2,5-11,5 and termostable up to 80 °C. CcL molecular mass determined by gel filtration on a Superose 6 10 300 column was approximately 140,3 kDa. SDS polyacrilamide gel electrophoresis revealed a single band with a molecular mass of approximately 14,5 kDa, when the lectin was heated at 100 ⁰C in the presence or absence of β-mercaptoethanol. CcL induced activation of murine peritoneal macrophages in vitro resulting in the release of nitric oxide (NO), reaching the maximum production at 24 h. In experimental paw oedema model in mice, CcL showed proinflammatory activity being able to induce oedema formation. Cell viability of HepG2, MDA 435 e 3T3 cell lines was examined after 72 h of incubation with CcL in different concentrations (0,5-50 μg/mL). CcL inhibited HepG2 cells growth with an IC50 value of 50 μg/mL. In the present work, the observed immunomodulatory and antiproliferative effects indicate CcL as a possible immunomodulator compound, interfering in the macrophages immune response, taking possible anti-parasitic, anti-tumoral effects or diagnostic and/or therapeutic

Clonagem e expressão do gene que codifica o inibidor de quimotripsina de Erythrina velutina WILLD. - caracterização e avaliação de seu potencial farmacológico

Proteinases are enzymes distributed widely founded in several organisms and perform many different functions, from maintaining homeostasis to the worsening of some diseases such as cancer, autoimmune diseases and infections. The proteins responsible of controlling the action of these enzymes are the inhibitors, that are classified based on their target proteases and are founded since simple organisms, such as bacteria, to higher organisms, such as larger plants and mammals. Plant proteinase inhibitors act by reducing or inactivating the activity of target proteases, thus, these proteins have been studied as potential tools in the treatment of diseases related to protease activities. In this context, an inhibitor of chymotrypsin from Erythrina velutina, called EvCI was previously purified and it was observed that this protein plays in vitro anticoagulant activity and anti-inflammatory activity in in vivo model. Aiming to reduce the environmental impact caused by the purification EvCI in high amounts and to facilitate the process of obtaining this protein, the recombinant chymotrypsin inhibitor from Eryhrina velutina was produced after cloning and expression in Escherichia coli. The bacteria were grown in LB medium and after induction of the expression this material was subjected to procedures for cell lysis and the product was applied on Nickel-affinity column. The proteins adsorbed were digested by thrombin and applied on Chymotrypsin-Sepharose affinity column, obtaining the purified inhibitor, named recEvCI. After electrophoresis, the recombinant inhibitor showed an approximately molecular mass of 17 kDa, and reduced the chymotrypsin and elastase activities in vitro. The recombinant inhibitor was sequenced and was found similar amino acids residues when compared to other inhibitors deposited in the database, with some modifications. recEvCI showed high stability under pH variations and reducing conditions, maintaining its activity around 80%. This protein increased the blood coagulation time in vitro by acting on the intrinsic pathway and did not show cytotoxicity against strains of mouse 3T3 fibroblasts and RAW 264.7 macrophages. recEvCI showed microbicide activity related to release of nitric oxide and consequently the activation of macrophages, futhermore having proinflammatory effects assessed by increased release of TNF-α. These results indicate that recEvCI can be biotechnologically used as a new tool in the control of coagulation-related diseases as well as can be an activating agent of the immune system in immunosuppressed individuals

Isolamento de uma quitinase extraída do cefalotórax do camarão marinho Litopenaeus schmitti (BURKENROAD, 1936) : avaliação de suas atividades antimicrobiana e larvicida

Chitinases are enzymes involved in degradation of chitin and are present in a range of organisms, including those that do not contain chitin, such as bacteria, viruses, plants and animals, and play important physiological and ecological roles. Chitin is hydrolyzed by a chitinolytic system classified as: endo-chitinases, exo-chitinases and N-acetyl-b-D-glucosaminidases. In this study a Litochitinase1 extracted from the cephalotorax of the shrimp Litopenaeus Schmitt was purified 987.32 times using ionexchange chromatography DEAE-Biogel and molecular exclusion Sephacryl S-200. These enzyme presented a molecular mass of about 28.5 kDa. The results, after kinetic assay with the Litochitinase1 using as substrate p-nitrophenyl-N-acetyl-b-Dglucosaminideo, showed apparent Km of 0.51 mM, optimal activity at pH ranging from 5.0 to 6.0, optimum temperature at 55°C and stability when pre-incubated at temperatures of 25, 37, 45, 50 and 55°C. The enzyme showed a range of stability at pH 4.0 to 5.5. HgCl2 inhibited Litochitinase1 while MgCl2 enhances its activity. Antimicrobial tests showed that Litochitinase1 present activity against gram-negative bacterium Escherichia coli in the 800 μg/mL concentration. The larvicidal activity against Aedes aegypti was investigated using crude extracts, F-III (50-80%) and Litochitinase1 at 24 and 48 hours. The results showed larvicidal activity in all these samples with EC50 values of 6.59 mg/mL for crude extract, 5.36 mg/mL for F-III and 0.71 mg/mL for Litochitinase1 at 24 hours and 3.22 and 0.49 mg/mL for the F-III and Litochitinase1 at 48 hours, respectively. Other experiments confirmed the presence of chitin in the midgut of Aedes aegypti larvae, which may be suffering the action of Litochitinase1 killing the larvae, but also the absence of contaminating proteins as serine proteinase inhibitors and lectins in the crude extract, F-III and Litochitinase1, indicating that the death of the larvae is by action of the Litochitinase1. We also observed that the enzymes extracted from intestinal homogenate of the larvae no have activity on Litochitinase1. These results indicate that the enzyme can be used as an alternative to control of infections caused by Escherichia coli and reducing the infestation of the mosquito vector of dengue.

Análise do transcriptoma das glândulas venenosas do escorpião Tityus stigmurus

In Brazil, accidents with scorpions are considered of medical importance, not only by the high incidence, but also for the potentiality of the venom from some species in determining severe clinical conditions. Tityus stigmurus is a widely distributed scorpion species in Northeastern Brazil and known to cause severe human envenomations, inducing pain, hyposthesia, edema, erythema, paresthesia, headaches and vomiting. The present study uses a transcriptomic approach to characterize the molecular repertoire from the non-stimulated venom gland of Tityus stigmurus scorpion. A cDNA library was constructed and 540 clones were sequenced and grouped into 37 clusters, with more than one EST (expressed sequence tag) and 116 singlets. Forty-one percent of ESTs belong to recognized toxin-coding sequences, with antimicrobial toxins (AMP-like) the most abundant transcripts, followed by alfa KTx- like, beta KTx-like, beta NaTx-like and alfa NaTx-like. Our analysis indicated that 34% include other possible venom molecules , whose transcripts correspond to anionic peptides, hypothetical secreted peptides, metalloproteinases, cystein-rich peptides and lectins. Fifteen percent of ESTs are similar to cellular transcripts. Sequences without good matches corresponded to 11%. This investigation provides the first global view of cDNAs from Tityus stigmurus. This approach enables characterization of a large number of venom gland component molecules, which belong either to known or atypical types of venom peptides and proteins from the Buthidae family

Jazz, identidade musical e o piano Jazz em Portugal

Ao longo de todo o séc. XX, o jazz construiu um espaço alternativo às dicotomias heurísticas tradicionais, como por ex. tradição/inovação, erudito/popular, composição/improvisação, entre outras. Por entre discursos polarizados, o jazz afirmou-se como domínio musical conciliador de diferenças culturais e sociais, configurando um espaço novo de mediação, um “jazz art world” como definido pelo sociólogo Paul Lopes. Nesse espaço, a individualidade sempre assumiu enorme centralidade, em virtude do papel particularmente criativo do performer e também da sua relação elástica com os «modelos» referenciais para a performance. Assim, o jazz afigura-se um domínio privilegiado para a expressão da individualidade e, por conseguinte, para a construção e identificação de uma «identidade musical», tal como a expressão é proposta nesta tese. Para a discussão destes problemas conceptuais, esta tese recorre, como estudos de caso, a um conjunto de pianistas portugueses: António Pinho Vargas (1951-), Mário Laginha (1960-), João Paulo Esteves da Silva (1961-) e Bernardo Sassetti (1970-2012). É traçada a sua trajectória pessoal e formativa, e é apresentada uma análise da sua produção musical, com recurso à «teoria das tópicas» enquanto modelo particularmente orientado para a análise da música popular. No sentido de compreender os processos de construção das identidades musicais destes pianistas, são ainda abordadas outras temáticas, como a própria definição de «jazz», o jazz enquanto música dialógica, ou os fluxos diaspóricos do jazz (incluindo as respectivas implicações e variantes terminológicas, como “jazz diaspora”, “musical cosmopolitanism” e “glocalization”). Recorrendo a pesquisa bibliográfica, trabalho de campo (mormente a entrevista) e técnicas de análise musical, esta tese realiza uma exploração aprofundada destes tópicos e do trabalho dos músicos em particular. Desta forma, pretende oferecer um contributo para uma reflexão conceptual sobre o jazz em geral no âmbito dos jazz studies, e também para um mapeamento estilístico e identitário do jazz em Portugal.

Coordenação entre as respostas da catalase e da ascorbato peroxidade em folhas de feijão caupi submetidas a diferentes fontes de peróxido de hidrogênio

The plants are often exposed to variations in environmental conditions that may trigger metabolic disturbances leading to a consequent loss in productivity of crops. These stressful conditions usually induce an accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the cell, a condition known how oxidative stress. Among these species, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is an important molecule involved in numerous signaling mechanisms. The present study aimed to understand the relationship between the different enzymatic mechanisms of elimination of H2O2 by catalase (CAT) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) in leaf tissues of seedlings of the species Vigna unguiculata L. Walp, under conditions of oxidative stress induced by application of CAT inhibitor, 3-amino-1,2,4-triazole (3-AT), and H2O2 itself on the roots. Three experiments were conducted. The first experiment was performed applying the compound 3-AT (5 mM) during the time (hours). In the second experiment, seedlings were exposed to different concentrations of H2O2 (2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10 mM) for 48 h. The third strategy included the pre-treatment with H2O2 (2.5 mM) for 24 h, followed by subsequent treatment with the inhibitor 3-AT and recovery control condition. Treatment with 3-AT causes a strong inhibition of CAT activity in leaf tissues accompanied by an increase of activity of APX. However a decrease in oxidative damage to lipids is not observed as indicated by TBARS. It was observed that activity of APX is directly linked to the content of peroxide. Inductions in the activities of CAT and APX were observed mainly in the seedlings treated with 2.5 mM H2O2. This can be associated with a decrease in oxidative damage to lipids. In contrast, one same tendency was not observed in treatments with higher concentrations of this ROS. These results suggest that the concentration of 2.5 mM H2O2 can induce responses antioxidants later in seedling cowpea. This concentration when applied as pre-treatment for 24 h promoted an induction systems removers CAT and APX, both in activity and in terms of gene expression. However this increment was not observed in the recovered plants and the plants subsequently subjected to 3-AT. Additionally, the pretreatment was not sufficient to attenuate the inhibition of CAT activity and oxidative damage to lipids caused by the subsequent application of this inhibitor. The results showed that the application of 3-AT and H2O2 in the root systems of seedlings of cowpea promote changes in the parameters analyzed in leaf tissues that indicate a direct response to the presence of these factors or systemic signaling mecanisms. H2O2 appears to activate the responses of two antioxidant systems in this study thar does not promote greater protection in case of additional treatment with 3-AT. This demonstrates the importance of the CAT system. In this work, complete results indicate that there is a difference between the signaling and the effects caused by exposure to H2O2 and by treatment with 3-AT

Efeitos da microgravidade em plantas de cana-de-açúcar

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) is a plant from Poaceae family that has an impressive ability to accumulate sucrose in the stalk, making it a significant component of the economy of many countries. About 100 countries produce sugarcane in an area of 22 million hectares worldwide. For this reason, many studies have been done using sugarcane as a plant model in order to improve production. A change in gravity may be one kind of abiotic stress, since it generates rapid responses after stimulation. In this work we decided to investigate the possible morphophysiological, biochemical and molecular changes resulting from microgravity. Here, we present the contributions of an experiment where sugarcane plants were submitted to microgravity flight using a vehicle VSB-30, a sounding rocket developed by Aeronautics and Space Institute teams, in cooperation with the German Space Agency. Sugarcane plants with 10 days older were submitted to a period of six minutes of microgravity using the VSB-30 rocket. The morphophysiological analyses of roots and leaves showed that plants submitted to the flight showed changes in the conduction tissues, irregular pattern of arrangement of vascular bundles and thickening of the cell walls, among other anatomical changes that indicate that the morphology of the plants was substantially influenced by gravitational stimulation, besides the accumulation of hydrogen peroxide, an important signaling molecule in stress conditions. We carried out RNA extraction and sequencing using Illumina platform. Plants subjected to microgravity also showed changes in enzyme activity. It was observed an increased in superoxide dismutase activity in leaves and a decreased in its activity in roots as well as for ascorbate peroxidase activity. Thus, it was concluded that the changes in gravity were perceived by plants, and that microgravity environment triggered changes associated with a reactive oxygen specie signaling process. This work has helped the understanding of how the gravity affects the structural organization of the plants, by comparing the anatomy of plants subjected to microgravity and plants grown in 1g gravity

Influência do sistema anteoxidante da catalase no ciclo do glioxilato durante o estabelecimento pós-germinativo de cártamo (Carthamus tinctorius L.) e de girassol (Helianthus annuus L.)

Oilseeds are a high-value natural resource, due to its use as a substitute for petroleum. However, the storage time can reduce seed viability and oil quality. Therefore, scientific efforts have been made to provide a increment of storage time, germination rates and plant establishment of high-value oilseeds. The seedling establishment depends of the plant pass over the functional transition stage, characterized by a metabolic change from heterotrophic condition to autotrophic one. The storage oil mobilization is performed by β-oxidation process and the glyoxylate cycle. Also, the functional transition involves acclimation to photosynthetic condition, which generally includes the participation of antioxidant system and the reactive oxygen species, the latter are produced in various reactions of primary and secondary metabolism. In the present study, Catalase was inhibited during the functional transition of sunflower and safflower, after were performed many analyzes to elucidate the effects caused on the SOD and APX antioxidant systems. Also, were checked the changes in expression pattern of the glyoxylate cycle enzymes markers, ICL and MLS. It was observed that after CAT inhibition, the SOD and APX antioxidant systems allow the seedling establishment. Besides, was verified that both oilseeds can be accelerate the reverse mobilization and the photosynthetic establishment when Catalase activity has dramatically decreased

Avaliação da suplementação com vitamina E, na forma natural ou sintética, em mulheres no pós-parto imediato e sua concentração no colostro

The Vitamin E consists of eight chemically homologous forms, designated alpha, beta, gamma and delta tocopherols and tocotrienols. Biologically, the alpha-tocopherol (α-TOH) is the most important. Commercially, are found two types of α-TOH a natural (RRR-alpha-tocopherol) and another synthetic (all-rac-alpha-tocopherol). Both forms are absorbed in the intestine, the liver is a preference in favor of forms 2R, due to transfer protein α-TOH. It has higher affinity to these stereoisomers. Newborns are considered high risk for vitamin E deficiency, mainly premature, these have breast milk as a food source for maintenance of serum α-TOH. Clinical signs such as thrombocytosis, hemolytic anemia, retrolental fibroplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and spinocerebellar degeneration can be found in case of a low intake of α-TOH. Thus, maternal supplementation on postpartum with α-TOH can be an efficient way to increase levels of vitamin E in breast milk and thus the consequently increase the supply of micronutrient for the newborn. However, most studies with vitamin E supplementation have been conducted in animals and little is known about the effect of maternal supplementation in humans, as well as on its efficiency to increase levels of α-TOH in human milk, depending on the shape natural or synthetic. The study included 109 women, divided into three groups: control without supplementation (GC) (n=36), supplemented with natural capsule (GNAT) (n=40) and the synthetic capsule (GSINT) (n=33). Blood samples were collected for determination of maternal nutritional status, and colostrums at initial contact and after 24 hours post-supplementation. Analyses were performed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography. Values of α-TOH in serum below 499.6mg/dL were considered deficient. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test and Tukey test to confirm the increase of alpha-tocopherol in milk and efficiency of administered capsules. Daily consumption of α-TOH was based on daily intake of 500 mL of colostrum by the newborn and compared with the nutritional requirement for children from 0 to 6 months of age, 4 mg / day. The mothers had mean concentration of serum α-TOH in 1016 ± 52, 1236 ± 51 and 1083 ± 61 mg / dL, in CG, GNAT and GSINT respectively. There were no women with deficiiency. The GC did not change the concentrations of α-TOH in colostrum. While women supplemented with natural and synthetic forms increased concentrations of α-TOH colostrum in 57.6% and 39%, respectively. By comparing supplemented groups, it was observed a significant difference (p=0.04), the natural capsule more efficient than the synthetic, approximately 49.6%. Individually, 21.1% of the women provided below 4mg/day of α-TOH, after supplementation for this index declined4.1%. Thus, maternal supplementation postpartum raised the levels of alpha-tocopherol in colostrum, and increased efficiency was observed with the natural form