Differential effect of Charlson index and its components on in-hospital mortality and health costs

Introduction: The Charlson index (Charlson, 1987) is a commonly used comorbidity index in outcome studies. Still, the use of different weights makes its calculation cumbersome, while the sum of its components (comorbidities) is easier to compute. In this study, we assessed the effects of 1) the Charlson index adapted for the Swiss population and 2) the sum of its components (number of comorbidities, maximum 15) on a) in-hospital deaths and b) cost of hospitalization. Methods: Anonymous data was obtained from the administrative database of the department of internal medicine of the Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV). All hospitalizations of adult (>=18 years) patients occurring between 2003 and 2011 were included. For each hospitalization, the Charlson index and the number of comorbidities were calculated. Analyses were conducted using Stata. Results: Data from 32,741 hospitalizations occurring between 2003 and 2011 was analyzed. On bivariate analysis, both the Charlson index and the number of comorbidities were significantly and positively associated with in hospital death. Conversely, multivariate adjustment for age, gender and calendar year using Cox regression showed that the association was no longer significant for the number of comorbidities (table). On bivariate analysis, hospitalization costs increased both with Charlson index and with number of comorbidities, but the increase was much steeper for the number of comorbidities (figure). Robust regression after adjusting for age, gender, calendar year and duration of hospital stay showed that the increase in one comorbidity led to an average increase in hospital costs of 321 CHF (95% CI: 272 to 370), while the increase in one score point of the Charlson index led to a decrease in hospital costs of 49 CHF (95% CI: 31 to 67). Conclusion: Charlson index is better than the number of comorbidities in predicting in-hospital death. Conversely, the number of comorbidities significantly increases hospital costs.

La perception de la productivité dans l'industrie hôtelière de luxe : le cas de la Suisse romande

La perception de la productivité SUMMARY The main objective of this thesis is the perception of the productivity in the luxury hospitality industry. Despite a lot of efforts which were already made in the field of the production of goods, this concept (productivity) still remains to be defined in the services sector, more still, in that of the luxury hospitality industry. Since the object of this study is the perception of productivity, we decided to analyze the elements considered to be relevant by the top management in this field. Then, it seemed important to evaluate these same elements for the categories of middle-management and by the in-line employees. As perception is not static, it is dependent in an indirect way on its improvement and however also with the means of improvement. The assumption of our work evokes the possible relationship between productivity and its perception (P), (Q) quality and profitability (R). On this basis we built the P-Q-R model: R=F(P,Q) Finally, our research on this model enabled us to establish a mathematical relation between the three predetermined elements: fR=fP+fQ+c That means that the function efficiency of a process of services -(fR) is the sum of its quality function (intrinsic and extrinsic)-(fP) and of its productivity function - fQ (and the constant of regression "c"). To increase the profitability of the most significant manner, it is necessary to increase at the same time the productivity and quality. On the other hand, according to this formula but also according to the perception of the managers, with a constant profitability, either the productivity decreases in favor of the increase in quality, or the reverse. If the dimensions of the model influence positively or negatively the production process of services, then those wí11 influence in same manner our model (P, Q, R). We advance a point of view saying that profitability depends on the labor productivity which follows same dynamics than the perception of the productivity. The identification of the labor productivity as an essential element of successful management of the hotel is fundamental. The question which always remains in suspense is however the relevance of the concept "labor productivity" for the luxury hospitality industry. It was not proven an obvious correlation between this notion and the one of profitability. We still remain at the stage of perception. It results that one interesting way of future research will be the study of this correlation. As in any kind of luxury industry, the real added value does not consist in the volume produced or in the speed with which the product/service is carried out but in the creativity involved in their results. Let us note that the field of luxury is extremely related to the emotions and to the experience provided to the customers. La perception de la productivité... RÉSUME L'objectif principal de cette thèse est la perception de la productivité dans l'hôtellerie de luxe. Malgré tous les efforts qui ont déjà été faits dans le domaine de la production de biens, ce concept (productivité) reste encore à définir dans le secteur des services, plus encore, dans celui de l'hôtellerie de luxe. Étant donné que l'objet de l'étude est la perception de la productivité, nous avons décidé d'analyser les éléments jugés pertinents par les cadres dirigeants dans ce domaine. Puis, il nous a semblé important d'évaluer ces mêmes éléments pour les catégories de cadres moyens et par les employés in-line. Comme la perception n'est pas statique, elle est liée d'une manière indirecte à son amélioration et cependant également aux moyens d'amélioration. L'hypothèse de notre travail évoque la possible relation entre la productivité et sa perception (P), la qualité (Q) et la rentabilité (R). Sur cette base nous avons construit le modèle P-Q-R de départ R=f(P,Q) Finalement, notre recherche sur ce modèle nous a permis d'établir une relation mathématique entre les trois construits prédéterminés: fR=fP+fQ+c Cela signifie que la fonction rentabilité d'un processus de services -(fR) est la somme de sa fonction qualité (intrinsèque et extrinsèque)-fP et de sa fonction productivité -fQ (plus la constante de régression « c ») Pour augmenter la rentabilité de la manière la plus significative, il faut augmenter en même temps la productivité et la qualité. En revanche, selon cette formule mais selon aussi la perception des managers, à une rentabilité constante, soit la productivité diminue en faveur de l'augmentation de la qualité, soit l'inverse. Si les dimensions du modèle influencent positivement ou négativement le processus de production de services, alors celles-ci vont influencer de la même manière les construits de notre modèle (P, Q, R). Nous avançons un point de vue disant que la rentabilité dépend de la productivité du travail qui suit la même dynamique que la perception de la productivité. L'identification de la productivité du travail comme élément essentiel de gestion réussie de l'hôtel s'avère fondamentale. La question qui reste toujours en suspens est pourtant la pertinence de la notion «productivité du travail » pour l'industrie hôtelière de luxe. Il n'a pas été prouvé une corrélation évidente entre cette notion et celle de la profitabilité. Nous restons donc ici encore au stade de perception. Il en résulte que l'une des voies les plus intéressantes de recherche future sera l'étude de cette corrélation. Comme dans toute industrie de luxe, la vraie valeur ajoutée ne consiste pas toujours dans le volume produit, ni dans la vitesse avec laquelle le produit/service est réalisé, mais parfois dans la créativité emmagasinée dans ces résultats. Notons que le domaine de luxe est extrêmement lié aux émotions et à l'expérience fournie aux clients.

Gap probabilities for the cardinal sine

We study the zero set of random analytic functions generated by a sum of the cardinal sine functions which form an orthogonal basis for the Paley-Wiener space. As a model case, we consider real-valued Gaussian coefficients. It is shown that the asymptotic probability that there is no zero in a bounded interval decays exponentially as a function of the length.

The peri-urban interface and house infestation with Triatoma infestans in the Argentine Chaco: an underreported process?

Peri-urban infestations with triatomine bugs, their sources and their dynamics have rarely been investigated. Here, we corroborated the reported occurrence of Triatoma infestans in a peri-urban area and in neighbouring rural houses in Pampa del Indio, in the Argentine Chaco, and identified its putative sources using spatial analysis and demographic questionnaires. Peri-urban householders reported that 10% of their premises had triatomines, whereas T. infestans was collected by timed manual searches or community-based surveillance in only nine (3%) houses. Trypanosoma cruzi-infected T. infestans and Triatoma sordida were collected indoors only in peri-urban houses and were infected with TcV and TcI, respectively. The triatomines fed on chickens, cats and humans. Peri-urban infestations were most frequent in a squatter settlement and particularly within the recently built mud houses of rural immigrants, with large-sized households, more dogs and cats and more crowding. Several of the observed infestations were most likely associated with passive bug transport from other sources and with active bug dispersal from neighbouring foci. Thus, the households in the squatter settlement were at a greater risk of bug invasion and colonisation. In sum, the incipient process of domestic colonisation and transmission, along with persistent rural-to-urban migratory flows and unplanned urbanisation, indicate the need for active vector surveillance and control actions at the peri-urban interface of the Gran Chaco.

Discovering similarities in the time use patterns of the Spanish Autonomous Communities by Fuzzy techniques

In 2000 the European Statistical Office published the guidelines for developing theHarmonized European Time Use Surveys system. Under such a unified framework,the first Time Use Survey of national scope was conducted in Spain during 2002–03. The aim of these surveys is to understand human behavior and the lifestyle ofpeople. Time allocation data are of compositional nature in origin, that is, they aresubject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Thus, standard multivariatetechniques cannot be directly applied to analyze them. The goal of this work is toidentify homogeneous Spanish Autonomous Communities with regard to the typicalactivity pattern of their respective populations. To this end, fuzzy clustering approachis followed. Rather than the hard partitioning of classical clustering, where objects areallocated to only a single group, fuzzy method identify overlapping groups of objectsby allowing them to belong to more than one group. Concretely, the probabilistic fuzzyc-means algorithm is conveniently adapted to deal with the Spanish Time Use Surveymicrodata. As a result, a map distinguishing Autonomous Communities with similaractivity pattern is drawn.Key words: Time use data, Fuzzy clustering; FCM; simplex space; Aitchison distance

CODAMAT: a modern analogue techinque for compositional data

The quantitative estimation of Sea Surface Temperatures from fossils assemblages is afundamental issue in palaeoclimatic and paleooceanographic investigations. TheModern Analogue Technique, a widely adopted method based on direct comparison offossil assemblages with modern coretop samples, was revised with the aim ofconforming it to compositional data analysis. The new CODAMAT method wasdeveloped by adopting the Aitchison metric as distance measure. Modern coretopdatasets are characterised by a large amount of zeros. The zero replacement was carriedout by adopting a Bayesian approach to the zero replacement, based on a posteriorestimation of the parameter of the multinomial distribution. The number of modernanalogues from which reconstructing the SST was determined by means of a multipleapproach by considering the Proxies correlation matrix, Standardized Residual Sum ofSquares and Mean Squared Distance. This new CODAMAT method was applied to theplanktonic foraminiferal assemblages of a core recovered in the Tyrrhenian Sea.Kew words: Modern analogues, Aitchison distance, Proxies correlation matrix,Standardized Residual Sum of Squares

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering ofcompositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories ofcompositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain.Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have beenproposed for their analysis.In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional ClusterAnalysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To ourknowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem ofclustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to theanalysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using asuitable compositional algebra.The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositionaldata trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneousclasses? To address this problem we follow the steps described below.First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope withthe smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can bethought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors.Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory:clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves.The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilaritybetween trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape andlevel, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only.A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, usingboth hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained resultsis assessed by means of several indices

The alcohol purchase task in young men from the general population.

BACKGROUND: The alcohol purchase task (APT), which presents a scenario and asks participants how many drinks they would purchase and consume at different prices, has been used among students and small clinical samples to obtain measures of alcohol demand but not in large, general population samples. METHODS: We administered the APT to a large sample of young men from the general population (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors). Participants who reported drinking in the past year (n=4790), reported on past 12 months alcohol use, on DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria and on alcohol related consequences were included. RESULTS: Among the APT's demand parameters, intensity was 8.7 (SD=6.5) indicating that, when drinks are free, participants report a planned consumption of almost 9 drinks. The maximum alcohol expenditure (Omax) was over 35CHF (1CHF=1.1USD) and the demand became elastic (Pmax) at 8.4CHF (SD=5.6). The mean price at which the consumption was suppressed was 15.6CHF (SD=5.4). Exponential equation provided a satisfactory fit to individual responses (mean R(2): 0.8, median: 0.8). Demand intensity was correlated with alcohol use, number of AUD criteria and number of consequences (all r≥0.3, p<0.0001). Omax was correlated with alcohol use (p<0.0001). The elasticity parameter was weakly correlated with alcohol use in the expected direction. CONCLUSION: The APT measures are useful in characterizing demand for alcohol in young men in the general population. Demand may provide a clinically useful index of strength of motivation for alcohol use in general population samples.

"Roseum memoriale divinorum eloquiorum, auct. Petro de Rosentheim.

Ex-libris du XVe s. "Iste liber est beate Marie de Amberto. 348" et ajout du XVIIIe s. "nunc S. Germani a Pratis" (1); — ex-libris du XVIe s. "Hic liber me jurae posside [sic] qui vocatus sum Edmondus Theveneon" suivi d'une formule en grec "Tevenon bonus puer" (f. de garde)

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Towards smart user models in open environments

Our work is concerned with user modelling in open environments. Our proposal then is the line of contributions to the advances on user modelling in open environments thanks so the Agent Technology, in what has been called Smart User Model. Our research contains a holistic study of User Modelling in several research areas related to users. We have developed a conceptualization of User Modelling by means of examples from a broad range of research areas with the aim of improving our understanding of user modelling and its role in the next generation of open and distributed service environments. This report is organized as follow: In chapter 1 we introduce our motivation and objectives. Then in chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5 we provide the state-of-the-art on user modelling. In chapter 2, we give the main definitions of elements described in the report. In chapter 3, we present an historical perspective on user models. In chapter 4 we provide a review of user models from the perspective of different research areas, with special emphasis on the give-and-take relationship between Agent Technology and user modelling. In chapter 5, we describe the main challenges that, from our point of view, need to be tackled by researchers wanting to contribute to advances in user modelling. From the study of the state-of-the-art follows an exploratory work in chapter 6. We define a SUM and a methodology to deal with it. We also present some cases study in order to illustrate the methodology. Finally, we present the thesis proposal to continue the work, together with its corresponding work scheduling and temporalisation

Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

On Strong Citizens: A Sociological View on Cognitions and Contentious Participation

The present thesis is about cognitions of left-wing activists and the role they play to better understand contentious participation. It compares activists of three post-industrial social movement organizations in Switzerland, i.e. Solidarity across Borders defending migrant's rights, the Society of Threatened People promoting collective human rights and Greenpeace protecting the environment. It makes use of an innovative mixed methods design combining survey and interview data. The main theoretical contribution is to conceptualize an analytical tool enabling to grasp the cognitive map of these activists by putting forward the concept of strong citizen, summing up their relation to society and politics. The relation to society consists of an extensive relation to others and an interconnected vision of society. Consequently, their primary concerns include the handing of common goods and the equal treatment of individuals with regard to common goods. The relation to politics incorporates a critical and vigilant citizen. They are critical towards political authorities and they appreciate political action by organized groups of the civil society. The thesis states that only by having such worldviews activists are able to construct an injustice, agency and identity frame for the claims of their organizations. Thus, the present work delivers a parsimonious answer to the question of where an injustice, agency and identity frame comes from. It does so by a systematic analysis of four specific arguments. First, it empirically demonstrates that these activists have - at the aggregate level - specific cognitive resources compared to the general population. Second, it describes the content of this specific cognitive outlook by evaluating the appropriateness of the strong citizen concept. Third, it looks at variations between activist's communities and shows that activists of more challenging protest issues are stronger citizens than activists of more mainstream protests. Finally, cognitions are not the only part of the story if one looks at contentious participation. Other factors, i.e. social networks and biographical availability, matter too. Therefore, I test if cognitions are able to contribute in explaining differences between activists' communities if one controls for other factors. In sum, this thesis is thus a first step to demonstrate why one should be concerned about activists' cognitions. - Cette thèse s'intéresse aux cognitions des activistes de gauche et à leur rôle dans le phénomène de la participation contestataire. Des activistes de trois organisations post- industrielles en Suisse sont comparé, à savoir Solidarité sans Frontières qui défend les droits des migrants, la Société des Peuples menacés qui promeut les droits des collectivités minoritaires et Greenpeace qui oeuvre pour la protection de l'environnement. Cette recherche utilise un « mixed methods design » en combinant de manière innovant des données de sondage et d'entretiens. Ma principale contribution théorique réside dans la conceptualisation d'un outil analytique qui permet de saisir la « carte cognitive » des activistes, à travers le concept de « strong citizen » qui se réfère à la relation spécifique qu'entretiennent certains individus avec la société et la politique. Ces individus sont caractérisés par une vision inclusive et interconnectée de la société, ainsi que par une conception politique du citoyen comme critique et vigilant. Mon argument principal est celui selon lequel seuls les individus possédant ce type particulier de cognitions sont capable de construire un cadre d'injustice, d'« agency » et d'identité. Cette thèse apporte donc quelques éléments de réponse à la question de l'origine de ces cadres cognitifs qui sont cruciales pour la participation. Pour ce faire, quatre aspects spécifiques sont analysés de manière systématique. Premièrement, je démontre empiriquement, au niveau agrégé, que ces activistes possèdent effectivement des ressources cognitives spécifiques - en comparaison avec la population générale. Deuxièmement, j'analyse le contenu de ces cognitions, ce qui me permet notamment d'évaluer la pertinence et l'adéquation du concept de « strong citizen ». Troisièmement, en m'intéressant cette fois aux variations entre communautés d'activistes, je démontre que ceux réunis autour d'enjeux protestataires très revendicatifs sont, d'un point de vue cognitif, plus proches de la figure du « strong citizen » que ceux mobilisés sur des enjeux plus consensuels. Finalement, d'autres facteurs, à savoir les réseaux sociaux et la disponibilité biographique, sont intégrés à l'analyse afin de mesurer le réel pouvoir explicatif des cognitions dans l'explication des différences observées entre communautés d'activistes. A travers ces analyses, cette thèse met en avant l'importance du rôle des cognitions dans l'étude de la participation contestataire.

Extracellular protease and phospholipase C are controlled by the global regulatory gene gacA in the biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0.

Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CHA0 protects plants from various root diseases. Antibiotic metabolites synthesized by this strain play an important role in disease suppression; their production is mediated by the global activator gene gacA. Here we show by complementation that the gacA gene is also essential for the expression of two extracellular enzymes in P. fluorescens CHA0: phospholipase C and a 47-kDa metalloprotease. In contrast, the production of another exoenzyme, lipase, is not regulated by the gacA gene. Protease, phospholipase and antibiotics of P. fluorescens are all known to be optimally produced at the end of exponential growth; thus, the gacA gene appears to be a general stationary-phase regulator.

Metacognitive training for adolescents with psychosis: A multiple case study

Cognitive biases may be one of the explaining factor underlying psychotic symptoms like delusions and hallucinations. Metacognitive training (MCT) was demonstrated, in adults with schizophrenia, to reduce these cognitive biases. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has been no research on adolescents with psychosis. The current study aimed at assessing the feasibility, treatment adherence and its benefi cial effects on psychotic symptoms, depression, social functioning and self-esteem of a MCT. Participants were fi ve psychotic adolescents with psychosis, aged 16-18, who attended the Day Care Unit for Adolescents (DCUA). The MCT, delivered in group, corresponds to 2x8 modules, lasting between 45 and 60 minutes once a week. To measure MCT's effi ciency, the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS), the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescent (HoNOSCA), the depression scale of Calgary and the self-esteem scale of Rosenberg have been used. The results of the 5 patients indicate that MCT is feasible and the treatment adherence is moderate. The schedule of the MCT needs to be adapted to the availability of the participants. At a descriptive level, the MCT allows to reduce psychotic and depressive symptoms (PANSS & Calgary) as well as to improve the social functioning (SOFAS & HoNOSCA) and self-esteem (Rosenberg). To sum up, MCT seem to be an interesting alternative and/or a good additional treatment to reduce cognitive bias, psychotic symptoms as well as improving social functioning