Error models in hydrogeology applications

Notre consommation en eau souterraine, en particulier comme eau potable ou pour l'irrigation, a considérablement augmenté au cours des années. De nombreux problèmes font alors leur apparition, allant de la prospection de nouvelles ressources à la remédiation des aquifères pollués. Indépendamment du problème hydrogéologique considéré, le principal défi reste la caractérisation des propriétés du sous-sol. Une approche stochastique est alors nécessaire afin de représenter cette incertitude en considérant de multiples scénarios géologiques et en générant un grand nombre de réalisations géostatistiques. Nous rencontrons alors la principale limitation de ces approches qui est le coût de calcul dû à la simulation des processus d'écoulements complexes pour chacune de ces réalisations. Dans la première partie de la thèse, ce problème est investigué dans le contexte de propagation de l'incertitude, oú un ensemble de réalisations est identifié comme représentant les propriétés du sous-sol. Afin de propager cette incertitude à la quantité d'intérêt tout en limitant le coût de calcul, les méthodes actuelles font appel à des modèles d'écoulement approximés. Cela permet l'identification d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations représentant la variabilité de l'ensemble initial. Le modèle complexe d'écoulement est alors évalué uniquement pour ce sousensemble, et, sur la base de ces réponses complexes, l'inférence est faite. Notre objectif est d'améliorer la performance de cette approche en utilisant toute l'information à disposition. Pour cela, le sous-ensemble de réponses approximées et exactes est utilisé afin de construire un modèle d'erreur, qui sert ensuite à corriger le reste des réponses approximées et prédire la réponse du modèle complexe. Cette méthode permet de maximiser l'utilisation de l'information à disposition sans augmentation perceptible du temps de calcul. La propagation de l'incertitude est alors plus précise et plus robuste. La stratégie explorée dans le premier chapitre consiste à apprendre d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations la relation entre les modèles d'écoulement approximé et complexe. Dans la seconde partie de la thèse, cette méthodologie est formalisée mathématiquement en introduisant un modèle de régression entre les réponses fonctionnelles. Comme ce problème est mal posé, il est nécessaire d'en réduire la dimensionnalité. Dans cette optique, l'innovation du travail présenté provient de l'utilisation de l'analyse en composantes principales fonctionnelles (ACPF), qui non seulement effectue la réduction de dimensionnalités tout en maximisant l'information retenue, mais permet aussi de diagnostiquer la qualité du modèle d'erreur dans cet espace fonctionnel. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à un problème de pollution par une phase liquide nonaqueuse et les résultats obtenus montrent que le modèle d'erreur permet une forte réduction du temps de calcul tout en estimant correctement l'incertitude. De plus, pour chaque réponse approximée, une prédiction de la réponse complexe est fournie par le modèle d'erreur. Le concept de modèle d'erreur fonctionnel est donc pertinent pour la propagation de l'incertitude, mais aussi pour les problèmes d'inférence bayésienne. Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC) sont les algorithmes les plus communément utilisés afin de générer des réalisations géostatistiques en accord avec les observations. Cependant, ces méthodes souffrent d'un taux d'acceptation très bas pour les problèmes de grande dimensionnalité, résultant en un grand nombre de simulations d'écoulement gaspillées. Une approche en deux temps, le "MCMC en deux étapes", a été introduite afin d'éviter les simulations du modèle complexe inutiles par une évaluation préliminaire de la réalisation. Dans la troisième partie de la thèse, le modèle d'écoulement approximé couplé à un modèle d'erreur sert d'évaluation préliminaire pour le "MCMC en deux étapes". Nous démontrons une augmentation du taux d'acceptation par un facteur de 1.5 à 3 en comparaison avec une implémentation classique de MCMC. Une question reste sans réponse : comment choisir la taille de l'ensemble d'entrainement et comment identifier les réalisations permettant d'optimiser la construction du modèle d'erreur. Cela requiert une stratégie itérative afin que, à chaque nouvelle simulation d'écoulement, le modèle d'erreur soit amélioré en incorporant les nouvelles informations. Ceci est développé dans la quatrième partie de la thèse, oú cette méthodologie est appliquée à un problème d'intrusion saline dans un aquifère côtier. -- Our consumption of groundwater, in particular as drinking water and for irrigation, has considerably increased over the years and groundwater is becoming an increasingly scarce and endangered resource. Nofadays, we are facing many problems ranging from water prospection to sustainable management and remediation of polluted aquifers. Independently of the hydrogeological problem, the main challenge remains dealing with the incomplete knofledge of the underground properties. Stochastic approaches have been developed to represent this uncertainty by considering multiple geological scenarios and generating a large number of realizations. The main limitation of this approach is the computational cost associated with performing complex of simulations in each realization. In the first part of the thesis, we explore this issue in the context of uncertainty propagation, where an ensemble of geostatistical realizations is identified as representative of the subsurface uncertainty. To propagate this lack of knofledge to the quantity of interest (e.g., the concentration of pollutant in extracted water), it is necessary to evaluate the of response of each realization. Due to computational constraints, state-of-the-art methods make use of approximate of simulation, to identify a subset of realizations that represents the variability of the ensemble. The complex and computationally heavy of model is then run for this subset based on which inference is made. Our objective is to increase the performance of this approach by using all of the available information and not solely the subset of exact responses. Two error models are proposed to correct the approximate responses follofing a machine learning approach. For the subset identified by a classical approach (here the distance kernel method) both the approximate and the exact responses are knofn. This information is used to construct an error model and correct the ensemble of approximate responses to predict the "expected" responses of the exact model. The proposed methodology makes use of all the available information without perceptible additional computational costs and leads to an increase in accuracy and robustness of the uncertainty propagation. The strategy explored in the first chapter consists in learning from a subset of realizations the relationship between proxy and exact curves. In the second part of this thesis, the strategy is formalized in a rigorous mathematical framework by defining a regression model between functions. As this problem is ill-posed, it is necessary to reduce its dimensionality. The novelty of the work comes from the use of functional principal component analysis (FPCA), which not only performs the dimensionality reduction while maximizing the retained information, but also allofs a diagnostic of the quality of the error model in the functional space. The proposed methodology is applied to a pollution problem by a non-aqueous phase-liquid. The error model allofs a strong reduction of the computational cost while providing a good estimate of the uncertainty. The individual correction of the proxy response by the error model leads to an excellent prediction of the exact response, opening the door to many applications. The concept of functional error model is useful not only in the context of uncertainty propagation, but also, and maybe even more so, to perform Bayesian inference. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms are the most common choice to ensure that the generated realizations are sampled in accordance with the observations. Hofever, this approach suffers from lof acceptance rate in high dimensional problems, resulting in a large number of wasted of simulations. This led to the introduction of two-stage MCMC, where the computational cost is decreased by avoiding unnecessary simulation of the exact of thanks to a preliminary evaluation of the proposal. In the third part of the thesis, a proxy is coupled to an error model to provide an approximate response for the two-stage MCMC set-up. We demonstrate an increase in acceptance rate by a factor three with respect to one-stage MCMC results. An open question remains: hof do we choose the size of the learning set and identify the realizations to optimize the construction of the error model. This requires devising an iterative strategy to construct the error model, such that, as new of simulations are performed, the error model is iteratively improved by incorporating the new information. This is discussed in the fourth part of the thesis, in which we apply this methodology to a problem of saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer.

Sähkösuunnittelun projektityön hallinta ja kehittäminen - Management and development of project work in electrical

Työssä on tutkittu sähkösuunnittelun projektityön hallintaa ja kehittämistä. Tavoitteena oli löytää ongelmia ja pyrkiä korjaamaan niitä, jotta suunnittelu olisi mahdollisimman toimivaa. Tutkimus perustuu kirjallisuuteen ja haastatteluihin. Työssä perehdytään kirjallisuuden avulla projektin peruskäsitteisiin ja hallintaan sekä sähkösuunnittelun projektin yleiseen toteutukseen. Haastattelujen avulla on selvitetty tämän hetkistä tilannetta sähkösuunnitteluprojektin hallinnasta ja siihen liittyvistä ongelmista Pöyryn Kouvolan konttorissa. Työn tuloksena on selvitetty merkittävimpiä ongelmia, jotka esiintyvät sähkösuunnitteluprojektissa. Työ keskittyy pääosin sähkösuunnitteluprojektin hallinnallisiin ongelmiin ja niiden toteutukseen. Kirjallisuuden ja haastattelujen pohjalta on koottu ohjeita sähkösuunnittelun projektinhallintaan

Aasian toinen todellisuus - Suomen suurlähetystöjen monikulttuurisen johtamisen haasteet

Monikulttuurinen johtaminen on globalisaation ja nopean kansainvälistymisen takia erittäin ajankohtainen aihe. Suomessa sitä on kuitenkin tutkittu vasta vähän. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tutkia Suomen suurlähetystöjenmonikulttuurista johtamista Aasian eri kohdemaissa ja kulttuureissa sekä ottaa osaa tieteelliseen keskusteluun monikulttuurisesta johtamisesta. Tutkimuksen kohdemaiksi on valittu neljä Aasian maata, jotka ovat tällä hetkellä hyvin ajankohtaisia nopean talouskasvunsa takia. Itä-Aasiasta mukana ovat Etelä-Korea (Korean tasavalta), Japani ja Kiinan kansantasavalta sekä Kaakkois-Aasiasta tutkimuksessa mukana on Malesia. Tämä tutkimus on laadullinen tutkimus, jonka aineisto koostuu kahdesta laadulliselle tutkimukselle poikkeuksellisesta avoimesta kyselystä, jotka on lähetetty edellä mainittujen maiden suurlähettiläille eri kohdemaihin. Analyysissä menetelmänä on käytetty teemoittelua, jonka avulla on voitu jäsentää saatua aineistoa. Näin teemojen vertailu on myös ollut helpompaa. Tutkimuksen tuloksista kävi ilmi, että monikulttuurinen johtaminen on erittäin haasteellista kansallisten kulttuurien eroista johtuen. Arvot ovat hyvin keskeisessä osassa kulttuuria tutkittaessa ja niiden erot voivat vaikeuttaa kanssakäymistä eri kulttuureista tulevien ihmisten kesken, koska asioiden merkitykset jäävät usein arvoituksiksi vieraasta kulttuurista tuleville henkilöille. Kansallisen kulttuurin tekijöistä kieli, arvot ja uskonto ovat merkittäviä monikulttuurisen johtamisen kannalta. Tutkimuksesta kävi myös ilmi, että Itä- Aasian maissa konfutselaisuudella on suuri merkitys yhteiskuntafilosofiana. Se on muokannut yhteiskunnan arvoja, tapoja ja rakenteita. Vanhempien ja ylempiarvoisten ihmisten arvostus ja vahvasti hierarkkinen yhteiskuntarakenne ovat tyypillisiä konfutselaisuuden piirteitä. Kulttuurin ulottuvuuksista merkityksellisempiä tämän tutkimuksen kannalta ovat yksilöllisyys vs. kollektiivisuus, valtaetäisyys ja konfutselaisuuden dynamiikka (lyhyen vs. pitkän aikavälin suuntautuminen). Kaikki tämän tutkimuksen maat ovat kollektiivisia sekä niissä valtaetäisyys on myös korkea. Tämä tuo haasteita monikulttuuriseen johtamiseen Suomen suurlähetystöissä, koska suomalainen kulttuuri on useimpien länsimaiden tapaan yksilöllinen ja valtaetäisyys on suhteellisen matala. Konfutselaisuuden dynamiikka vaikuttaa lähinnä vain Itä-Aasian maissa tuoden mukanaan erittäin vahvan hierarkian, jota ei voi sivuuttaa. Tutkimuksen aineistoa käsitellään näytenäkökulmasta, eikä sitä ei voisuoraan verrata muihin organisaatioihin tai kulttuureihin. Toisaalta jokaisen kansallisen kulttuurin ihmiset toimivat tietyllä tavalla tietyssä kontekstissa, riippumatta siitä, missä organisaatiossa he työskentelevät. Kulttuuri ohjaa ihmisen toimintaa ja kansallinen kulttuuri on yrityskulttuuria voimakkaampi tekijä.

Exploring the path through which career adaptability increases job satisfaction and lowers work stress : the role of affect

The construct of career adaptability, or the ability to successfully manage one's career development and challenges, predicts several important outcomes; however, little is known about the mechanisms contributing to its positive effects. The present study investigated the impact of career adaptability on job satisfaction and work stress, as mediated by individuals' affective states. Using a representative sample of 1671 individuals employed in Switzerland we hypothesized that, over time, career adaptability amplifies job satisfaction and attenuates work stress, through higher positive affect and lower negative affect, respectively. The data resulted from the first three waves of a longitudinal project on professional paths conducted in Switzerland. For each wave, participants completed a survey. Results of the 3-wave cross-lagged longitudinal model show that employees with higher career adaptability at Time 1 indeed experienced at Time 3 higher job satisfaction and lower work stress than those with lower career adaptability. The effect of career adaptability on job satisfaction and work stress was accounted for by negative affect: Individuals higher on career adaptability experienced less negative affect, which led to lower levels of stress and higher levels of job satisfaction, beyond previous levels of job satisfaction and work stress. Overall results support the conception of career adaptability as a self-regulatory resource that may promote a virtuous cycle in which individuals' evaluations of their resources to cope with the environment (i.e., career adaptability) shape their affective states, which in turn influence the evaluations of their job.

Passport to a profession in the degree of pharmacy: how to integrate university students into the real world of work: "Passport to a profession in Pharmacy"

The incorporation of the Spanish university system into the European Higher Education Areahas brought about a series of adaptations. Among the recommendations is the inclusion ofan external training period in a company, which has resulted in significant changes in thedegree syllabus in order to balance the theoretical and practical education required by thestudents. This new framework has been legally confirmed by the Spanish Government and, inthe case of the University of Barcelona, by the publication of internal guidelines. Takingadvantage of this new opportunity to adapt the Pharmacy degree to real-world problems inindustry, the Dean’s team of the Faculty of Pharmacy, with the support of the Facultyadministrative staff and the Students Advisory Service, have assumed the challenge ofincluding a new subject in the syllabus entitled Training in Companies.In parallel, a new activity has been set up to ensure that the students choose the mostsuitable company department/job for them and to help them pass the company interview.Under the name of Passport to a Profession, a series of ten explanatory talks has beenscheduled every academic year. These talks deal with a broad range of topics aimed atproviding the students with the basic tools they will need to make the most of a companytraining period and to make headway in the professional world when they finish theirdegree. In addition, three Faculty of Pharmacy-Pharmaceutical company workshops and tworound-table conferences have been held in the last two years in order to bring the universityand industry together. Notably, the project to provide students with company training isexpanding on an international level, with two to three undergraduate students contractedevery year by a United Kingdom-based multinational pharmaceutical company.The statistical data of the whole process has been analysed for a more in-depthunderstanding of the activity and to improve the programme.

Generative models of the human connectome.

The human connectome represents a network map of the brain's wiring diagram and the pattern into which its connections are organized is thought to play an important role in cognitive function. The generative rules that shape the topology of the human connectome remain incompletely understood. Earlier work in model organisms has suggested that wiring rules based on geometric relationships (distance) can account for many but likely not all topological features. Here we systematically explore a family of generative models of the human connectome that yield synthetic networks designed according to different wiring rules combining geometric and a broad range of topological factors. We find that a combination of geometric constraints with a homophilic attachment mechanism can create synthetic networks that closely match many topological characteristics of individual human connectomes, including features that were not included in the optimization of the generative model itself. We use these models to investigate a lifespan dataset and show that, with age, the model parameters undergo progressive changes, suggesting a rebalancing of the generative factors underlying the connectome across the lifespan.

The effects of some variables on CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding

The CO2-laser-MAG hybrid welding process has been shown to be a productive choice for the welding industry, being used in e.g. the shipbuilding, pipe and beam manufacturing, and automotive industries. It provides an opportunity to increase the productivity of welding of joints containing air gaps compared with autogenous laser beam welding, with associated reductions in distortion and marked increases in welding speeds and penetration in comparison with both arc and autogenous laser welding. The literature study indicated that the phenomena of laser hybrid welding are mostly being studied using bead-on-plate welding or zero air gap configurations. This study shows it very clearly that the CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding process is completely different, when there is a groove with an air gap. As in case of industrial use it is excepted that welding is performed for non-zero grooves, this study is of great importance for industrial applications. The results of this study indicate that by using a 6 kW CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding process, the welding speed may also be increased if an air gap is present in the joint. Experimental trials indicated that the welding speed may be increased by 30-82% when compared with bead-on-plate welding, or welding of a joint with no air gap i.e. a joint prepared as optimum for autogenous laser welding. This study demonstrates very clearly, that the separation of the different processes, as well as the relative configurations of the processes (arc leading or trailing) affect welding performance significantly. These matters influence the droplet size and therefore the metal transfer mode, which in turn determined the resulting weld quality and the ability to bridge air gaps. Welding in bead-onplate mode, or of an I butt joint containing no air gap joint is facilitated by using a leading torch. This is due to the preheating effect of the arc, which increases the absorptivity of the work piece to the laser beam, enabling greater penetration and the use of higher welding speeds. With an air gap present, air gap bridging is more effectively achieved by using a trailing torch because of the lower arc power needed, the wider arc, and the movement of droplets predominantly towards the joint edges. The experiments showed, that the mode of metal transfer has a marked effect on gap bridgeability. Transfer of a single droplet per arc pulse may not be desirable if an air gap is present, because most of the droplets are directed towards the middle of the joint where no base material is present. In such cases, undercut is observed. Pulsed globular and rotational metal transfer modes enable molten metal to also be transferred to the joint edges, and are therefore superior metal transfer modes when bridging air gaps. It was also found very obvious, that process separation is an important factor in gap bridgeability. If process separation is too large, the resulting weld often exhibits sagging, or no weld may be formed at all as a result of the reduced interaction between the component processes. In contrast, if the processes are too close to one another, the processing region contains excess molten metal that may create difficulties for the keyhole to remain open. When the distance is optimised - i.e. a separation of 0-4 mm in this study, depending on the welding speed and beam-arc configuration - the processes act together, creating beneficial synergistic effects. The optimum process separation when using a trailing torch was found to be shorter (0-2 mm) than when a leading torch is used (2-4 mm); a result of the facilitation of weld pool motion when the latter configuration is adopted. This study demonstrates, that the MAG process used has a strong effect on the CO2-laser-MAG hybrid welding process. The laser beam welding component is relatively stable and easy to manage, with only two principal processing parameters (power and welding speed) needing to be adjusted. In contrast, the MAG process has a large number of processing parameters to optimise, all of which play an important role in the interaction between the laser beam and the arc. The parameters used for traditional MAG welding are often not optimal in achieving the most appropriate mode of metal transfer, and weld quality in laser hybrid welding, and must be optimised if the full range of benefits provided by hybrid welding are to be realised.

Tunkeuman hallinta MIG/MAG-hitsauksessa

MIG/MAG-hitsaukselle tyypillinen ominaispiirre, valokaaren itsesäätyvyys, saavutetaan vakiojännitelähdettä käyttämällä. Valokaaren sisäisen säätömekanismin ansiosta kaarenpituus pysyy vakiona, vaikka hitsauspolttimen ja työkappaleen välinen etäisyys vaihtelisi hitsauksen aikana. Vakiojännitelähteen käyttäminen aiheuttaa kuitenkin kaaritehon vaihtelua vapaalankapituuden muuttuessa. Vapaalangan kasvaessa liian pitkäksi kaariteho laskee niin alas, ettei se enää riitä sulattamaan tarpeeksi perusainetta railon kyljissä. Tämän seurauksena hitsausliitokseen syntyy erilaisia liittymävirheitä. Käsinhitsauksessa vapaalangan pituus saattaa polttimen epävakaasta kuljetuksesta johtuen vaihdella erityisesti kokemattomilla hitsaajilla. Mekanisoidussa ja automatisoidussa hitsauksessa railojen mitta- ja muotopoikkeamat aiheuttavat vapaalankapituuden vaihtelua. Poikkeamia syntyy kaikissa hitsausrailojen esivalmistusvaiheissa. Lisäksi lämmöntuonnin aiheuttamat muodonmuutokset kappaleissa lisäävät poikkeamia railonsovituksessa hitsauksen aikana. Ongelma on useimmiten ratkaistavissa railonseurantaa käyttämällä. Railonseurantajärjestelmät ovat kuitenkin kalliita, eivätkä ne toimi luotettavasti kaikissa olosuhteissa. Diplomityössä tutkittiin uutta MIG/MAG-hitsauksen reaaliaikaiseen tunkeuman hallintaan kehitettyä säätöjärjestelmää. Työn tavoitteina olivat säätöjärjestelmän luotettavan toiminnan takaavien reunaehtojen ja kosketussuutinetäisyyden suositusrajojen määrittäminen. Tavoitteiden täyttämiseksi työn kokeellisessa osiossa suoritettiin laaja hitsauskokeiden sarja, jossa hitsattavina materiaaleina käytettiin seostamatonta ja runsasseosteista terästä.

The scope of Baker's law.

656 I. 657 II. 658 III. 660 IV. 661 V. 663 VI. 663 VII. 664 VIII. 664 665 References 665 SUMMARY: Baker's law refers to the tendency for species that establish on islands by long-distance dispersal to show an increased capacity for self-fertilization because of the advantage of self-compatibility when colonizing new habitat. Despite its intuitive appeal and broad empirical support, it has received substantial criticism over the years since it was proclaimed in the 1950s, not least because it seemed to be contradicted by the high frequency of dioecy on islands. Recent theoretical work has again questioned the generality and scope of Baker's law. Here, we attempt to discern where the idea is useful to apply and where it is not. We conclude that several of the perceived problems with Baker's law fall away when a narrower perspective is adopted on how it should be circumscribed. We emphasize that Baker's law should be read in terms of an enrichment of a capacity for uniparental reproduction in colonizing situations, rather than of high selfing rates. We suggest that Baker's law might be tested in four different contexts, which set the breadth of its scope: the colonization of oceanic islands, metapopulation dynamics with recurrent colonization, range expansions with recurrent colonization, and colonization through species invasions.

Modernization of protection and control system of HV/MV substation in Russia

This work describes different possibilities of protection and control system improvement of primary distribution substation. The status of condition and main problems of power networks from reliability point of view in Russia are described. This work studies technologies used today in Russia for protection of distribution networks with their disadvantages. Majority of medium voltage networks (6-35 kV) has isolated network point. There is still no any protection available on the market which allows to estimate distance to fault in case of earth fault. The thesis analyses methods of earth fault distance calculation. On the basis of computer simulation the influence of various factors on calculation accuracy is studied. The practical implementation of the method presupposes usage of digital relay. Application of digital relay is accompanied by numerous opportunities which are described in this work. Also advantages of system implemented on the basis of IEC 61850 standard are examined. Finally, suitability of modern digital relays from GOST standard point of view is analyzed.

Chaos in human behavior: the case of work motivation

This study considers the complex dynamics of work motivation. Forty-eight employees completed a work-motivation diary several times per day over a period of four weeks. The obtained time series were analysed using different methodologies derived from chaos theory (i.e. recurrence plots, Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension and surrogate data). Results showed chaotic dynamics in 75% of cases. The findings confirm the universality of chaotic behavior within human behavior, challenge some of the underlying assumptions on which work motivation theories are based, and suggest that chaos theory may offer useful and relevant information on how this process is managed within organizations.

Subjective perceptions as prognostic factors of time to fitness for work during a 4-year period after inpatient rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Time to fitness for work (TFW) was measured as the number of days that were paid as compensation for work disability during the 4 years after discharge from the rehabilitation clinic in a population of patients hospitalised for rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The aim of this study was to test whether some psychological variables can be used as potential early prognostic factors of TFW. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations between predictive variables and TFW. Predictors were global health, pain at hospitalisation and pain decrease during the stay (all continuous and standardised by subtracting the mean and dividing by two standard deviations), perceived severity of the trauma and expectation of a positive evolution (both binary variables). RESULTS: Full data were available for 807 inpatients (660 men, 147 women). TFW was positively associated with better perceived health (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.19), pain decrease (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.64) and expectation of a positive evolution (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.32-1.70) and negatively associated with pain at hospitalisation (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.59-0.76) and high perceived severity (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61-0.85). DISCUSSION: The present results provide some evidence that work disability during a four-year period after rehabilitation may be predicted by prerehabilitation perceptions of general health, pain, injury severity, as well as positive expectation of evolution.