A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata) is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival) and population growth rate (λ) for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA) to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1). We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval) had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10) and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The baseline data presented here and subsequent efforts to manage Streaked Horned Larks will provide valuable information for management of other declining Horned Lark subspecies and other grassland songbirds across North America.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Piping Plover response to coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season

The increase in coastal storm frequency and intensity expected under most climate change scenarios is likely to substantially modify beach configuration and associated habitats. This study aimed to analyze the impact of coastal storms on a nesting population of the endangered Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in southeastern New Brunswick, Canada. Previous studies have shown that numbers of nesting Piping Plovers may increase following storms that create new nesting habitat at individual beaches. However, to our knowledge, no test of this pattern has been conducted over a regional scale. We hypothesized that Piping Plover abundance would increase after large coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season. However, we expected a delay in the colonization of newly created habitat owing to low-density populations, combined with high site fidelity of adults and high variability in survival rate of subadults. We tested this hypothesis using a 27-year (1986-2012) data set of Piping Plover abundance and productivity (nesting pairs and fledged young) collected at five sites in eastern New Brunswick. We identified 11 major storms that could potentially have modified Piping Plover habitat over the study period. The number of fledged young increased three years after a major storm, but the relationship was much weaker for the number of nesting pairs. These findings are consistent with the hypothesized increase in suitable habitat after coastal storms. Including storm occurrence with other factors influencing habitat quality will enhance Piping Plover conservation strategies.

High resolution Northern Hemisphere wintertime mid-latitude dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

Hourly winter weather of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is simulated using the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) on a globally resolved T170 (75 km) grid. Results are compared to a longer LGM climatological run with the same boundary conditions and monthly saves. Hourly-scale animations are used to enhance interpretations. The purpose of the study is to explore whether additional insights into ice age conditions can be gleaned by going beyond the standard employment of monthly average model statistics to infer ice age weather and climate. Results for both LGM runs indicate a decrease in North Atlantic and increase in North Pacific cyclogenesis. Storm trajectories react to the mechanical forcing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with Pacific storms tracking over middle Alaska and northern Canada, terminating in the Labrador Sea. This result is coincident with other model results in also showing a significant reduction in Greenland wintertime precipitation – a response supported by ice core evidence. Higher-temporal resolution puts in sharper focus the close tracking of Pacific storms along the west coast of North America. This response is consistent with increased poleward heat transport in the LGM climatological run and could help explain “early” glacial warming inferred in this region from proxy climate records. Additional analyses shows a large increase in central Asian surface gustiness that support observational inferences that upper-level winds associated with Asian- Pacific storms transported Asian dust to Greenland during the LGM.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Global perturbation of the marine Ca isotopic composition in the aftermath of the Marinoan global glaciation

Ca isotopic compositions of Marinoan post-glacial carbonate successions in Brazil and NW Canada were measured Both basal dolostones display delta(44/40)Ca values between 1 and 0 7 parts per thousand overlying limestones show a negative Ca isotope excursion to values around 0 1 parts per thousand and delta(44/40)Ca values rapidly increase up-section to near 2 0 parts per thousand In the Brazilian successions those high delta(44/40)Ca values rapidly decrease and stabilize to values between 0 6 and 0 9 parts per thousand These Ca isotope secular variation trends are unlike those of Sturtian post-glacial carbonate successions but similar to those of Marinoan post-glacial carbonate successions in Namibia suggesting that the perturbation of the marine Ca cycle was global This recommends Ca isotope stratigraphy as a tool to correlate Neoproterozoic post-glacial carbonate successions worldwide While the lowermost and uppermost strata have delta(44/40)Ca values typical of Phanerozoic carbonates the extremes 0 1 and 2 0 parts per thousand have not been thus far reported for other marine carbonates These extreme values suggest a short-lived non-actualistic perturbation in the marine Ca cycle Simple box modelling of the Marinoan post-glacial marine Ca cycle can reproduce the extreme values only by postulating a two-step process with Ca input initially exceeding Ca removal trough carbonate precipitation followed by precipitation overtaking a decreased Ca Input (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Feasibility of the Reintroduction of Wolves in Maine: a GIS Study

The eastern timber wolf (Canis lupus lycaon) once inhabited Maine, as well as the rest of the eastern United States and southern Canada. As a result of human land use and widespread extermination campaigns, wolf numbers dramatically decreased, and by the early twentieth century, no wolves remained in Maine. As large carnivorous and territorial mammals, wolves require contiguous undeveloped areas with abundant prey. This project is a feasibility study that identifies the areas in Maine that are suitable for the reintroduction of wolves. We used GIS modeling to identify contiguous forested areas over 1,000 km2, calculate road and population density, and map the presence or absence of prey throughout the state. These variables were combined in a habitat suitability model to determine the location and amount of suitable wolf habitat in Maine. The northwestern part of the state appears most suitable for wolf reintroduction as it is relatively undeveloped with low road and population densities. There is also a smaller isolated area in Washington County that might be suitable, but further investigation is required.

Interação genótipo x ambiente em cultivares de alface na região de Jaboticabal

Estudou-se a interação genótipo x ambiente de doze cultivares de alface, sendo quatro do grupo lisa (Babá de Verão, Karla, Nacional e Elisa), quatro do grupo crespa (Simpson, Hortência, Verônica e Grand Rapids) e quatro do grupo americana (Laidy, Tainá, Lucy Brown e Raider). Os tratamentos foram constituídos pelo cultivo da alface em dez ambientes (casa de vegetação, túnel baixo de cultivo, túnel baixo com sombrite, agrotêxtil e campo, na presença e ausência de mulching). Foram utilizados dois períodos de cultivo, agosto a novembro de 2001 e março a junho de 2002 em Jaboticabal. Cada experimento (ambiente de cultivo) foi conduzido utilizando-se o delineamento de blocos casualizados, com doze cultivares e três repetições. A análise de variância conjunta demonstrou valores de F significativos (p<0,01) para a interação genótipo x ambiente. Para o cultivo de agosto a novembro/2001, as melhores respostas foram obtidas para as cultivares do Grupo Lisa, nos ambientes casa de vegetação com mulching, túnel baixo de cultivo sem mulching e campo sem mulching. Todas as cultivares apresentaram piores desempenhos nos ambientes túnel com sombrite sem mulching, agrotêxtil com e sem mulching. No cultivo de março a junho/2002, houve maior variabilidade quanto ao comportamento das cultivares avaliadas nos ambientes estudados. Na análise multivariada de agrupamento, a superioridade das cultivares do grupo lisa parece ter sido influenciada pelo número de folhas, tanto para a época 1, quanto para a época 2. Ressalta-se que, apesar das cultivares do grupo americana apresentarem pior desempenho, as mesmas tiveram os maiores valores de massa seca da parte aérea. Quando se tem como objetivo uma maior produção de alface visando massa seca da parte aérea ou massa fresca da parte aérea, deve-se optar por cultivares do grupo americana, que apresentaram as maiores médias para esta característica. As cultivares do grupo crespa apresentaram as maiores médias para volume de plantas.

Geologia, petrografia e geoquímica das associações leucograníticas e TTG arqueanos da área de Nova Canadá (PA) Domínio Carajás

O mapeamento geológico realizado na área de Nova Canadá, porção sul do Domínio Carajás, aliado aos estudos petrográficos e geoquímicos, permitiram a caracterização de pelo menos três novas unidades que antes estavam inseridas no contexto geológico do Complexo Xingu. São elas: (i) Leucogranodiorito Nova Canadá, que é constituído por rochas leucogranodioríticas mais enriquecidas em Al₂O₃, CaO, Na₂O, Ba, Sr e na razão Sr/Y, que mostram fortes afinidades geoquímicas com a Suíte Guarantã do Domínio Rio Maria, as quais também podem ser correlacionadas aos TTGs Transicionais do Cráton Yilgarn. Estas rochas apresentam padrão ETR levemente fracionado, mostram baixas razões (La/Yb)N e anomalias negativas de Eu ausentes ou discretas; (ii) Leucogranito Velha Canadá, caracterizado pelos conteúdos mais elevados de SiO₂, Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, K₂O, Rb, HFSE (Zr, Y e Nb), das razões K₂O/Na₂O, FeOt/(FeOt+MgO), Ba/Sr e Rb/Sr. Apresentam dois padrões distintos de ETR: (a) baixas à moderadas razões (La/Yb)N com anomalias negativas de Eu acentuadas; e (b) moderadas à altas razões (La/Yb)N, com anomalias negativas de Eu discretas e um padrão côncavo dos ETRP. Em diversos aspectos, as rochas do granito Velha Canadá mostram fortes afinidades com os leucogranitos potássicos tipo Xinguara e Mata Surrão do Domínio Rio Maria, assim como aqueles da região da Canaã dos Carajás e mais discretamente com os granitos de baixo Ca do Cráton Yilgarn. Para a origem das rochas do Leucogranodiorito Nova Canadá é admitida a hipótese de cristalização fracionada a partir de líquidos com afinidade sanukitóide, seguido por processos de mistura entre estes e líquidos de composição trondhjemítica, enquanto que para aquelas de alto K do Leucogranito Velha Canadá, acreditase na fusão parcial de metatonalitos tipo TTG em diferentes níveis crustais, para gerar líquidos com tais características; e (iii) associações trondhjemíticas com afinidade TTG de alto Al₂O₃, Na₂O e baixo K₂O, compatíveis com os granitoides arqueanos da série cálcioalcalina tonalítica-trondhjemítica de baixo potássio. Foram distinguidas duas variedades: (a) biotita-trondhjemito com estruturação marcada pelo desenvolvimento de feições que indicam atuação de pelo menos dois eventos deformacionais em estágios sin- a pós-magmáticos, como bandamentos composicionais, dobras e indícios de migmatização; e (b) muscovita ± biotita trondhjemito que é distinguido da variedade anterior pela presença da muscovita, saussuritização do plagioclásio, textura equigranular média e atuação discreta da deformação com o desenvolvimento de uma foliação E-W de baixo angulo. A primeira variedade destes litotipos, que ocorre predominantemente na porção norte, tem ocorrência restrita. Com intensa deformação e prováveis feições de anatexia (migmatitos) podem indicar que estas rochas tenham sido afetadas por um retrabalhamento crustal, ligado à geração dos leucogranitos dominantemente descritos na área. Os trondhjemitos do sul da área são mais enriquecidos em Fe₂O₃, MgO, TiO₂, CaO, Zr, Rb, e na razão Rb/Sr em relação aos trondhjemitos da porção norte da área. Estas exibem ainda padrões fracionados de ETR, com variações nos conteúdos de ETRP, além da ausência de anomalias de Eu e Sr, e baixos conteúdos de Y e Yb. Tais feições são tipicamente atribuídas à magmas gerados por fusão parcial de uma fonte máfica em diferentes profundidades, com aumento da influência da granada no resíduo e a falta de plagioclásio tanto na fase residual como na fracionante. Em uma análise geral, a disposição dos trends geoquímicos evolutivos de ambas as variedades sugere que estas unidades não são comagmáticas. As afinidades geoquímicas entre as rochas da área de Nova Canadá com aquelas do Domínio Mesoarqueano Rio Maria, poderiam nos levar a entender a região de Nova Canadá como uma extensão do Rio Maria para norte, enquanto que para aquelas do Leucogranito Velha Canadá, que são mais jovens e geradas já no Neoarqueano, se descarta a idéia de associação com os mesmos eventos tectono-magmáticos que atuaram em Rio Maria.

Estimativa da radiação solar global em estufa de polietileno a partir do brilho solar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Segregation of migration by feeding ground origin in North Atlantic humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Results from a large-scale, capture–recapture study of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae in the North Atlantic show that migration timing is influenced by feeding ground origin. No significant differences were observed in the number of individuals from any feeding area that were re-sighted in the common breeding area in the West Indies. However, there was a relationship between the proportion (logit transformed) of West Indies sightings and longitude (r2 = 0.97, F1,3 = 98.27, P = 0.0022) suggesting that individuals feeding farther to the east are less likely to winter in the West Indies. A relationship was also detected between sighting date in the West Indies and feeding area. Mean sighting dates in the West Indies for individuals identified in the Gulf of Maine and eastern Canada were significantly earlier than those for animals identified in Greenland, Iceland and Norway (9.97 days, t179 = 3.53, P = 0.00054). There was also evidence for sexual segregation in migration; males were seen earlier on the breeding ground than were females (6.63 days, t105 = 1.98, P = 0.050). This pattern was consistently observed for animals from all feeding areas; a combined model showed a significant effect for both sex (F1 = 5.942, P = 0.017) and feeding area (F3 =4.756, P=0.0038). The temporal difference in occupancy of the West Indies between individuals from different feeding areas, coupled with sexual differences in migratory patterns, presents the possibility that there are reduced mating opportunities between individuals from different high latitude areas.

Rapid Tooling via Stereolithography

Approximately three years ago, composite stereolithography (SL) resins were introduced to the marketplace, offering performance features beyond what traditional SL resins could offer. In particular, the high heat deflection temperatures and high stiffness of these highly filled resins have opened the door to several new rapid prototyping (RP) applications, including wind tunnel test modelling and, more recently, rapid tooling.

The quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012

This study investigates the characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave in the mesosphere during boreal winter 2011/2012 using observations of water vapor from ground-based microwave radiometers and satellite data. The ground-based microwave radiometers are located in Seoul (South Korea, 37° N), Bern (Switzerland, 47° N) and Sodankylä (Finland, 67° N). The quasi 16-day wave is observed in the mesosphere at all three locations, while the dominant period increases with latitude from 15 days at Seoul to 20 days at Sodankylä. The observed evolution of the quasi 16-day wave confirms that the wave activity is strongly decreased during a sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2012. Using satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite, we examine the zonal characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave and conclude that the observed waves above the midlatitudinal stations Seoul and Bern are eastward-propagating s = −1 planetary waves with periods of 15 to 16 days, while the observed oscillation above the polar station Sodankylä is a standing wave with a period of approximately 20 days. The strongest relative wave amplitudes in water vapor during the investigated time period are approximately 15%. The wave activity varies strongly along a latitude circle. The activity of the quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012 is strongest over northern Europe, the North Atlantic Ocean and northwestern Canada. The region of highest wave activity seems to be related to the position of the polar vortex. We conclude that the classic approach to characterize planetary waves zonally averaged along a latitude circle is not sufficient to explain the local observations because of the strong longitudinal dependence of the wave activity.