Dividend increases and initiations and default risk in equity returns

This study extends the Grullon, Michaely, and Swaminathan (2002) analysis by incorporating default risk. Using data for firms that either increased or initiated cash dividend payments during the 23-year period 1986-2008, we find reduction in default risk. This reduction is shown to be a priced risk factor beyond the Fama and French (1993) risk measures, and it explains the dividend payment decision and the positive market reaction around dividend increases and initiations. Further analysis reveals that the reduction in default risk is a significant factor in explaining the 3-year excess returns following dividend increases and initiations. © Copyright Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2011.

Misrepresentations and flawed logic about the prevalence of false memories

Brewin and Andrews (2016) propose that just 15% of people, or even fewer, are susceptible to false childhood memories. If this figure were true, then false memories would still be a serious problem. But the figure is higher than 15%. False memories occur even after a few short and low-pressure interviews, and with each successive interview they become richer, more compelling, and more likely to occur. It is therefore dangerously misleading to claim that the scientific data provide an “upper bound” on susceptibility to memory errors. We also raise concerns about the peer review process.

A kínai reformfolyamat politikai gazdaságtani logikája (The politico-economic logic of the Chinese reform process)

Kína az elmúlt több mint három évtizedben szegény, elmaradott országból a világgazdaság egyik legfontosabb szereplője lett. Szocialista rendszerét egy sajátos kapitalista rendszer váltotta fel, miközben politikai struktúrája lényegében változatlan maradt. A folyamatok során a vezetés mindvégig ügyelt arra, hogy a kommunista párt egyeduralmát semmi se veszélyeztethesse, ugyanakkor megfelelő források álljanak rendelkezésre hatalma megtartásához. A tanulmány a kínai reformfolyamatot politikai gazdaságtani szempontból vizsgálja, különös figyelmet szentelve az intézményi változásoknak. Bemutatja, milyen okok és tényezők álltak a reformok elindításának hátterében, milyen változások következtek be a szereplők érdekviszonyaiban a reformok előrehaladtával, és mire lehet számítani a reformok jövőjét illetően. Úgy tűnik, hogy a jelenlegi rendszer érdekviszonyai a reformok folytatása ellen hatnak, ellehetetlenítve a piacgazdaság intézményrendszerének további kiépítését. A járadékok és privilégiumok az elitet abban sem teszik érdekeltté, hogy komolyabb politikai reformokat hajtson végre, így a kialakuló csapdahelyzet megakadályozza az átmenet kiteljesedését. ____ In the last three decades China has risen from being a poor and underdeveloped country to being one of the most important players in the world economy. Its planned economy has been replaced by a capitalist system, but its political structure has remained essentially unchanged. The leaders during the reform process have sought constantly to avert dangers to the rule of the Communist Party and gain access to valuable resources that allow power to be retained. The study approaches the Chinese reform process from a politico-economic point of view, focusing primarily on institutional changes. It reveals the main factors behind the various phases of reform, the constantly changing interests of the players, and the possible future of the process. It seems that under the current authoritarian regime, there are vested interests working against a continuation of the reforms and precluding full establishment of the institutional framework of a market economy. The elite is also deterred from implementing serious political reforms by the current rents and privileges. This leads to a trap that prevents completion of the transition process.

Pavement performance prediction using adaptive logic networks

Pavement performance is one of the most important components of the pavement management system. Prediction of the future performance of a pavement section is important in programming maintenance and rehabilitation needs. Models for predicting pavement performance have been developed on the basis of traffic and age. The purpose of this research is to extend the use of a relatively new approach to performance prediction in pavement performance modeling using adaptive logic networks (ALN). Adaptive logic networks have recently emerged as an effective alternative to artificial neural networks for machine learning tasks. ^ The ALN predictive methodology is applicable to a wide variety of contexts including prediction of roughness based indices, composite rating indices and/or individual pavement distresses. The ALN program requires key information about a pavement section, including the current distress indexes, pavement age, climate region, traffic and other variables to predict yearly performance values into the future. ^ This research investigates the effect of different learning rates of the ALN in pavement performance modeling. It can be used at both the network and project level for predicting the long term performance of a road network. Results indicate that the ALN approach is well suited for pavement performance prediction modeling and shows a significant improvement over the results obtained from other artificial intelligence approaches. ^

An automatic tuning strategy for local fuzzy logic ramp metering algorithm using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Freeway systems are becoming more congested each day. One contribution to freeway traffic congestion comprises platoons of on-ramp traffic merging into freeway mainlines. As a relatively low-cost countermeasure to the problem, ramp meters are being deployed in both directions of an 11-mile section of I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The local Fuzzy Logic (FL) ramp metering algorithm implemented in Seattle, Washington, has been selected for deployment. The FL ramp metering algorithm is powered by the Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC). The FLC depends on a series of parameters that can significantly alter the behavior of the controller, thus affecting the performance of ramp meters. However, the most suitable values for these parameters are often difficult to determine, as they vary with current traffic conditions. Thus, for optimum performance, the parameter values must be fine-tuned. This research presents a new method of fine tuning the FLC parameters using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). PSO attempts to optimize several important parameters of the FLC. The objective function of the optimization model incorporates the METANET macroscopic traffic flow model to minimize delay time, subject to the constraints of reasonable ranges of ramp metering rates and FLC parameters. To further improve the performance, a short-term traffic forecasting module using a discrete Kalman filter was incorporated to predict the downstream freeway mainline occupancy. This helps to detect the presence of downstream bottlenecks. The CORSIM microscopic simulation model was selected as the platform to evaluate the performance of the proposed PSO tuning strategy. The ramp-metering algorithm incorporating the tuning strategy was implemented using CORSIM's run-time extension (RTE) and was tested on the aforementioned I-95 corridor. The performance of the FLC with PSO tuning was compared with the performance of the existing FLC without PSO tuning. The results show that the FLC with PSO tuning outperforms the existing FL metering, fixed-time metering, and existing conditions without metering in terms of total travel time savings, average speed, and system-wide throughput.

Ecological indicators for assessing and communicating seagrass status and trends in Florida Bay

A suite of seagrass indicator metrics is developed to evaluate four essential measures of seagrass community status for Florida Bay. The measures are based on several years of monitoring data using the Braun-Blanquet Cover Abundance (BBCA) scale to derive information about seagrass spatial extent, abundance, species diversity and presence of target species. As ecosystem restoration proceeds in south Florida, additional freshwater will be discharged to Florida Bay as a means to restore the bay's hydrology and salinity regime. Primary hypotheses about restoring ecological function of the keystone seagrass community are based on the premise that hydrologic restoration will increase environmental variability and reduce hypersalinity. This will create greater niche space and permit multiple seagrass species to co-exist while maintaining good environmental conditions for Thalassia testudinum, the dominant climax seagrass species. Greater species diversity is considered beneficial to habitat for desired higher trophic level species such as forage fish and shrimp. It is also important to maintenance of a viable seagrass community that will avoid die-off events observed in the past. Indicator metrics are assigned values at the basin spatial scale and are aggregated to five larger zones. Three index metrics are derived by combining the four indicators through logic gates at the zone spatial scale and aggregated to derive a single bay-wide system status score standardized on the System-wide Indicator protocol. The indicators will provide a way to assess progress toward restoration goals or reveal areas of concern. Reporting for each indicator, index and overall system status score is presented in a red–yellow–green format that summarizes information in a readily accessible form for mangers, policy-makers and stakeholders in planning and implementing an adaptive management strategy.

On the Equivalence between Assumption-Based Argumentation and Logic Programming

Postprint

'Digital by Default' and the 'hard to reach' : exploring solutions to digital exclusion in remote rural areas

The research reported here is supported by the award made by the RCUK Digital Economy programme to the dot.rural Digital Economy Hub [award reference: EP/G066051/1].

Rethinking Professional Practice: The Logic of Competition and the Crisis of Identity in Housing Practice

The relationship between professionalism, education and housing practice has become increasingly strained following the introduction of austerity measures and welfare reforms across a range of countries. Focusing on the development of UK housing practice, this article considers how notions of professionalism are being reshaped within the context of welfare retrenchment and how emerging tensions have both affected the identity of housing professionals and impacted on the delivery of training and education programmes. The article analyses the changing knowledges and skills valued in contemporary housing practice and considers how the sector has responded to the challenges of austerity. The central argument is that a dominant logic of competition has culminated in a crisis of identity for the sector. Although the focus of the article is on UK housing practice, the processes identified have a wider relevance for the analysis of housing and welfare delivery in developed economies.

Mental logic and its difficulties with disjunction

The mental logic theory does not accept the disjunction introduction rule of standard propositional calculus as a natural schema of the human mind. In this way, the problem that I want to show in this paper is that, however, that theory does admit another much more complex schema in which the mentioned rule must be used as a previous step. So, I try to argue that this is a very important problem that the mental logic theory needs to solve, and claim that another rival theory, the mental models theory, does not have these difficulties.

Fuzzy logic-based implicit authentication for mobile access control

In order to address the increasing compromise of user privacy on mobile devices, a Fuzzy Logic based implicit authentication scheme is proposed in this paper. The proposed scheme computes an aggregate score based on selected features and a threshold in real-time based on current and historic data depicting user routine. The tuned fuzzy system is then applied to the aggregated score and the threshold to determine the trust level of the current user. The proposed fuzzy-integrated implicit authentication scheme is designed to: operate adaptively and completely in the background, require minimal training period, enable high system accuracy while provide timely detection of abnormal activity. In this paper, we explore Fuzzy Logic based authentication in depth. Gaussian and triangle-based membership functions are investigated and compared using real data over several weeks from different Android phone users. The presented results show that our proposed Fuzzy Logic approach is a highly effective, and viable scheme for lightweight real-time implicit authentication on mobile devices.

Logic-Based Delivery of Site-Specifically-Modified Proteins from Gels through Engineered Biomacromolecular Architecture

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Exploring value propositions and service innovation : a service-dominant logic study

This paper presents an eight-firm study, conducted from the service-dominant logic perspective, which makes a contribution regarding knowledge of the anatomy of value propositions and service innovation. The paper suggests that value propositions are configurations of several different practices and resources. The paper finds that ten common practices, organized in three main aggregates, constitute and fulfill value propositions: i.e. provision practices, representational practices, and management and organizational practices. Moreover, the paper suggests that service innovation can be equated with the creation of new value propositions by means of developing existing or creating new practices and/or resources, or by means of integrating practices and resources in new ways. It identifies four types of service innovation (adaptation, resource-based innovation, practice-based innovation, and combinative innovation) and three types of service innovation processes (practice-based, resource-based, and combinative). The key managerial insight provided by the paper is that service innovation must be conducted and value propositions must be evaluated from the perspective of the customers’ value creation, the service that the customer experiences. Successful service innovation is not only contingent on having the right resources, established methods and practices for integrating these resources into attractive value propositions are also needed.

Advances in Deontic Logic [Review]

Abstract not available