Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

An FPGA based decimation filter processor design for real-time continuous-time Σ−Δ modulator performance measurement and evaluation

This paper reports on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) implementation as well as prototyping for real-time testing of a low complexity high efficiency decimation filter processor which is deployed in conjunction with a custom built low-power jitter insensitive Continuous Time (CT) Sigma-Delta (Σ-Δ) Modulator to measure and assess its performance. The CT Σ-Δ modulator/decimation filter cascade can be used in integrated all-digital microphone interfaces for a variety of applications including mobile phone handsets, wireless handsets as well as other applications requiring all-digital microphones. The work reported here concentrates on the design and implementation as well as prototyping on a Xilinx Spartan 3 FPGA development system and real-time testing of the decimation processing part deploying All-Pass based structures to process the bit stream coming from CT Σ-Δ modulator hence measuring in real-time and fully assessing the modulator's performance.

Application of continuous wavelet transform to the analysis of the modulus of the fractional Fourier transform bands for resolving two component mixture

In this paper, the fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) is applied to the spectral bands of two component mixture containing oxfendazole and oxyclozanide to provide the multicomponent quantitative prediction of the related substances. With this aim in mind, the modulus of FrFT spectral bands are processed by the continuous Mexican Hat family of wavelets, being denoted by MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT. Four modulus sets are obtained for the parameter a of the FrFT going from 0.6 up to 0.9 in order to compare their effects upon the spectral and quantitative resolutions. Four linear regression plots for each substance were obtained by measuring the MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT amplitudes in the application of the MEXH family to the modulus of the FrFT. This new combined powerful tool is validated by analyzing the artificial samples of the related drugs, and it is applied to the quality control of the commercial veterinary samples.

Critical reappraisal of Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic Central and North Atlantic, Caribbean and Mediterranean evolution

(l) The Pacific basin (Pacific area) may be regarded as moving eastwards like a double zip fastener relative to the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area): opening in the East and closing in the West. This movement is tracked by a continuous mountain belt, the collision ages of which increase westwards. (2) The relative movements between the Pacific area and the Pangaea area in the W-E/E-W direction are generated by tidal forces (principle of hypocycloid gearing), whereby the lower mantle and the Pacific basin or area (Pacific crust = roof of the lower mantle?) rotate somewhat faster eastwards around the Earth's spin axis relative to the upper mantle/crust system with the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area) (differential rotation). (3) These relative West to East/East to West displacements produce a perpetually existing sequence of distinct styles of opening and closing ocean basins, exemplified by the present East to West arrangement of ocean basins around the globe (Oceanic or Wilson Cycle: Rift/Red Sea style; Atlantic style; Mediterranean/Caribbean style as eastwards propagating tongue of the Pacific basin; Pacific style; Collision/Himalayas style). This sequence of ocean styles, of which the Pacific ocean is a part, moves eastwards with the lower mantle relative to the continents and the upper-mantle/crust of the Pangaea area. (4) Similarly, the collisional mountain belt extending westwards from the equator to the West of the Pacific and representing a chronological sequence of collision zones (sequential collisions) in the wake of the passing of the Pacific basin double zip fastener, may also be described as recording the history of oceans and their continental margins in the form of successive Wilson Cycles. (5) Every 200 to 250 m.y. the Pacific basin double zip fastener, the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle and the eastwards growing collisional mountain belt in their wake complete one lap around the Earth. Two East drift lappings of 400 to 500 m.y. produce a two-lap collisional mountain belt spiral around a supercontinent in one hemisphere (North or South Pangaea). The Earth's history is subdivided into alternating North Pangaea growth/South Pangaea breakup eras and South Pangaea growth/North Pangaea breakup eras. Older North and South Pangaeas and their collisional mountain belt spirals may be reconstructed by rotating back the continents and orogenic fragments of a broken spiral (e.g. South Pangaea, Gondwana) to their previous Pangaea growth era orientations. In the resulting collisional mountain belt spiral, pieced together from orogenic segments and fragments, the collision ages have to increase successively towards the West. (6) With its current western margin orientated in a West-East direction North America must have collided during the Late Cretaceous Laramide orogeny with the northern margin of South America (Caribbean Andes) at the equator to the West of the Late Mesozoic Pacific. During post-Laramide times it must have rotated clockwise into its present orientation. The eastern margin of North America has never been attached to the western margin of North Africa but only to the western margin of Europe. (7) Due to migration eastwards of the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle, relative to a distinct plate tectonic setting of an ocean, a continent or continental margin, a future or later evolutionary style at the Earth's surface is always depicted in a setting simultaneously developed further to the West and a past or earlier style in a setting simultaneously occurring further to the East. In consequence, ahigh probability exists that up to the Early Tertiary, Greenland (the ArabiaofSouth America?) occupied a plate tectonic setting which is comparable to the current setting of Arabia (the Greenland of Africa?). The Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary Eureka collision zone (Eureka orogeny) at the northern margin of the Greenland Plate and on some of the Canadian Arctic Islands is comparable with the Middle to Late Tertiary Taurus-Bitlis-Zagros collision zone at the northern margin of the Arabian Plate.

Domestic Consumption Simulation and Management Using a Continuous Consumption Management and Optimization Algorithm

The recent changes concerning the consumers’ active participation in the efficient management of load devices for one’s own interest and for the interest of the network operator, namely in the context of demand response, leads to the need for improved algorithms and tools. A continuous consumption optimization algorithm has been improved in order to better manage the shifted demand. It has been done in a simulation and user-interaction tool capable of being integrated in a multi-agent smart grid simulator already developed, and also capable of integrating several optimization algorithms to manage real and simulated loads. The case study of this paper enhances the advantages of the proposed algorithm and the benefits of using the developed simulation and user interaction tool.

Application of Continuous Wavelet Transform to the Analysis of the Modulus of the Fractional Fourier Transform Bands for Resolving Two Component Mixture

In this paper, the fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) is applied to the spectral bands of two component mixture containing oxfendazole and oxyclozanide to provide the multicomponent quantitative prediction of the related substances. With this aim in mind, the modulus of FrFT spectral bands are processed by the continuous Mexican Hat family of wavelets, being denoted by MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT. Four modulus sets are obtained for the parameter a of the FrFT going from 0.6 up to 0.9 in order to compare their effects upon the spectral and quantitative resolutions. Four linear regression plots for each substance were obtained by measuring the MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT amplitudes in the application of the MEXH family to the modulus of the FrFT. This new combined powerful tool is validated by analyzing the artificial samples of the related drugs, and it is applied to the quality control of the commercial veterinary samples.

Continuous improvement logidtics project: A study on the increase of the finished goods warehouse of Unilever at Sta. Iria

This project is called Improvement Logistics Project and aims to study an opportunity of expansion of the output in 80% of the Unilever warehouse at Sta. Iria via an increase in exportations for the next two years. This has been done using the Distibuidora Luís Simões tariff rates as basis of comparison for the as-is and to-be situations. For this matter, an allocation of all the costs of the warehouse is prepared and described with the goal of comparing the differences with and without expansion. The results show that a better outcome is achieved with the investment, but the warehouse is yet to prove its efficiency against the distribution company.

Long-term outcome after cognitive and behavioral regression in nonlesional epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow-wave sleep.

PURPOSE: To present the long-term follow-up of 10 adolescents and young adults with documented cognitive and behavioral regression as children due to nonlesional focal, mainly frontal, epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow wave sleep (CSWS). METHODS: Past medical and electroencephalography (EEG) data were reviewed and neuropsychological tests exploring main cognitive functions were administered. KEY FINDINGS: After a mean duration of follow-up of 15.6 years (range, 8-23 years), none of the 10 patients had recovered fully, but four regained borderline to normal intelligence and were almost independent. Patients with prolonged global intellectual regression had the worst outcome, whereas those with more specific and short-lived deficits recovered best. The marked behavioral disorders resolved in all but one patient. Executive functions were neither severely nor homogenously affected. Three patients with a frontal syndrome during the active phase (AP) disclosed only mild residual executive and social cognition deficits. The main cognitive gains occurred shortly after the AP, but qualitative improvements continued to occur. Long-term outcome correlated best with duration of CSWS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings emphasize that cognitive recovery after cessation of CSWS depends on the severity and duration of the initial regression. None of our patients had major executive and social cognition deficits with preserved intelligence, as reported in adults with early destructive lesions of the frontal lobes. Early recognition of epilepsy with CSWS and rapid introduction of effective therapy are crucial for a best possible outcome.

Genetics of calcium homeostasis in humans: continuum between monogenic diseases and continuous phenotypes

Extracellular calcium participates in several key physiological functions, such as control of blood coagulation, bone calcification or muscle contraction. Calcium homeostasis in humans is regulated in part by genetic factors, as illustrated by rare monogenic diseases characterized by hypo or hypercalcaemia. Both serum calcium and urinary calcium excretion are heritable continuous traits in humans. Serum calcium levels are tightly regulated by two main hormonal systems, i.e. parathyroid hormone and vitamin D, which are themselves also influenced by genetic factors. Recent technological advances in molecular biology allow for the screening of the human genome at an unprecedented level of detail and using hypothesis-free approaches, such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS identified novel loci for calcium-related phenotypes (i.e. serum calcium and 25-OH vitamin D) that shed new light on the biology of calcium in humans. The substantial overlap (i.e. CYP24A1, CASR, GATA3; CYP2R1) between genes involved in rare monogenic diseases and genes located within loci identified in GWAS suggests a genetic and phenotypic continuum between monogenic diseases of calcium homeostasis and slight disturbances of calcium homeostasis in the general population. Future studies using whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing will further advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of calcium homeostasis in humans. These findings will likely provide new insight into the complex mechanisms involved in calcium homeostasis and hopefully lead to novel preventive and therapeutic approaches. Keyword: calcium, monogenic, genome-wide association studies, genetics.

Continuous quantification of HER2 expression by microfluidic precision immunofluorescence estimates HER2 gene amplification in breast cancer.

Chromogenic immunohistochemistry (IHC) is omnipresent in cancer diagnosis, but has also been criticized for its technical limit in quantifying the level of protein expression on tissue sections, thus potentially masking clinically relevant data. Shifting from qualitative to quantitative, immunofluorescence (IF) has recently gained attention, yet the question of how precisely IF can quantify antigen expression remains unanswered, regarding in particular its technical limitations and applicability to multiple markers. Here we introduce microfluidic precision IF, which accurately quantifies the target expression level in a continuous scale based on microfluidic IF staining of standard tissue sections and low-complexity automated image analysis. We show that the level of HER2 protein expression, as continuously quantified using microfluidic precision IF in 25 breast cancer cases, including several cases with equivocal IHC result, can predict the number of HER2 gene copies as assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Finally, we demonstrate that the working principle of this technology is not restricted to HER2 but can be extended to other biomarkers. We anticipate that our method has the potential of providing automated, fast and high-quality quantitative in situ biomarker data using low-cost immunofluorescence assays, as increasingly required in the era of individually tailored cancer therapy.

Trigger and data link system for CMS Resistive Plate Chambers at the LHC accelerator

The purpose of the work was to realize a high-speed digital data transfer system for RPC muon chambers in the CMS experiment on CERN’s new LHC accelerator. This large scale system took many years and many stages of prototyping to develop, and required the participation of tens of people. The system interfaces to Frontend Boards (FEB) at the 200,000-channel detector and to the trigger and readout electronics in the control room of the experiment. The distance between these two is about 80 metres and the speed required for the optic links was pushing the limits of available technology when the project was started. Here, as in many other aspects of the design, it was assumed that the features of readily available commercial components would develop in the course of the design work, just as they did. By choosing a high speed it was possible to multiplex the data from some the chambers into the same fibres to reduce the number of links needed. Further reduction was achieved by employing zero suppression and data compression, and a total of only 660 optical links were needed. Another requirement, which conflicted somewhat with choosing the components a late as possible was that the design needed to be radiation tolerant to an ionizing dose of 100 Gy and to a have a moderate tolerance to Single Event Effects (SEEs). This required some radiation test campaigns, and eventually led to ASICs being chosen for some of the critical parts. The system was made to be as reconfigurable as possible. The reconfiguration needs to be done from a distance as the electronics is not accessible except for some short and rare service breaks once the accelerator starts running. Therefore reconfigurable logic is extensively used, and the firmware development for the FPGAs constituted a sizable part of the work. Some special techniques needed to be used there too, to achieve the required radiation tolerance. The system has been demonstrated to work in several laboratory and beam tests, and now we are waiting to see it in action when the LHC will start running in the autumn 2008.

[1er mai 1920 à Paris, un receveur volontaire encadré par des gendarmes sur la plate-forme d'un autobus] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 59111