Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Augmented Mixed Models For Clustered Proportion Data.

Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.

Convergence Of Soil Nitrogen Isotopes Across Global Climate Gradients.

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Long-term Decline Of The Amazon Carbon Sink.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

The Role Of Edaphic Environment And Climate In Structuring Phylogenetic Pattern In Seasonally Dry Tropical Plant Communities.

Seasonally dry tropical plant formations (SDTF) are likely to exhibit phylogenetic clustering owing to niche conservatism driven by a strong environmental filter (water stress), but heterogeneous edaphic environments and life histories may result in heterogeneity in degree of phylogenetic clustering. We investigated phylogenetic patterns across ecological gradients related to water availability (edaphic environment and climate) in the Caatinga, a SDTF in Brazil. Caatinga is characterized by semiarid climate and three distinct edaphic environments - sedimentary, crystalline, and inselberg -representing a decreasing gradient in soil water availability. We used two measures of phylogenetic diversity: Net Relatedness Index based on the entire phylogeny among species present in a site, reflecting long-term diversification; and Nearest Taxon Index based on the tips of the phylogeny, reflecting more recent diversification. We also evaluated woody species in contrast to herbaceous species. The main climatic variable influencing phylogenetic pattern was precipitation in the driest quarter, particularly for herbaceous species, suggesting that environmental filtering related to minimal periods of precipitation is an important driver of Caatinga biodiversity, as one might expect for a SDTF. Woody species tended to show phylogenetic clustering whereas herbaceous species tended towards phylogenetic overdispersion. We also found phylogenetic clustering in two edaphic environments (sedimentary and crystalline) in contrast to phylogenetic overdispersion in the third (inselberg). We conclude that while niche conservatism is evident in phylogenetic clustering in the Caatinga, this is not a universal pattern likely due to heterogeneity in the degree of realized environmental filtering across edaphic environments. Thus, SDTF, in spite of a strong shared environmental filter, are potentially heterogeneous in phylogenetic structuring. Our results support the need for scientifically informed conservation strategies in the Caatinga and other SDTF regions that have not previously been prioritized for conservation in order to take into account this heterogeneity.

Possibilidades e limites da avaliação da qualidade de vida : análise dos instrumentos WHOQOL e modelos clássicos de qualidade de vida no trabalho = Possibilities and limits of quality of life assessment : analysis of WHOQOL instruments and quality of work life classical models

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Comparative study of dental arch width in plaster models, photocopies and digitized images

The aim of this study was to comparatively assess dental arch width, in the canine and molar regions, by means of direct measurements from plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models. The sample consisted of 130 pairs of plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models of white patients (n = 65), both genders, with Class I and Class II Division 1 malocclusions, treated by standard Edgewise mechanics and extraction of the four first premolars. Maxillary and mandibular intercanine and intermolar widths were measured by a calibrated examiner, prior to and after orthodontic treatment, using the three modes of reproduction of the dental arches. Dispersion of the data relative to pre- and posttreatment intra-arch linear measurements (mm) was represented as box plots. The three measuring methods were compared by one-way ANOVA for repeated measurements (α = 0.05). Initial / final mean values varied as follows: 33.94 to 34.29 mm / 34.49 to 34.66 mm (maxillary intercanine width); 26.23 to 26.26 mm / 26.77 to 26.84 mm (mandibular intercanine width); 49.55 to 49.66 mm / 47.28 to 47.45 mm (maxillary intermolar width) and 43.28 to 43.41 mm / 40.29 to 40.46 mm (mandibular intermolar width). There were no statistically significant differences between mean dental arch widths estimated by the three studied methods, prior to and after orthodontic treatment. It may be concluded that photocopies and digitized images of the plaster models provided reliable reproductions of the dental arches for obtaining transversal intra-arch measurements.

Linear dimensional changes in plaster die models using different elastomeric materials

Dental impression is an important step in the preparation of prostheses since it provides the reproduction of anatomic and surface details of teeth and adjacent structures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the linear dimensional alterations in gypsum dies obtained with different elastomeric materials, using a resin coping impression technique with individual shells. A master cast made of stainless steel with fixed prosthesis characteristics with two prepared abutment teeth was used to obtain the impressions. References points (A, B, C, D, E and F) were recorded on the occlusal and buccal surfaces of abutments to register the distances. The impressions were obtained using the following materials: polyether, mercaptan-polysulfide, addition silicone, and condensation silicone. The transfer impressions were made with custom trays and an irreversible hydrocolloid material and were poured with type IV gypsum. The distances between identified points in gypsum dies were measured using an optical microscope and the results were statistically analyzed by ANOVA (p < 0.05) and Tukey's test. The mean of the distances were registered as follows: addition silicone (AB = 13.6 µm, CD=15.0 µm, EF = 14.6 µm, GH=15.2 µm), mercaptan-polysulfide (AB = 36.0 µm, CD = 36.0 µm, EF = 39.6 µm, GH = 40.6 µm), polyether (AB = 35.2 µm, CD = 35.6 µm, EF = 39.4 µm, GH = 41.4 µm) and condensation silicone (AB = 69.2 µm, CD = 71.0 µm, EF = 80.6 µm, GH = 81.2 µm). All of the measurements found in gypsum dies were compared to those of a master cast. The results demonstrated that the addition silicone provides the best stability of the compounds tested, followed by polyether, polysulfide and condensation silicone. No statistical differences were obtained between polyether and mercaptan-polysulfide materials.

Avaliação genética multirracial para ganho de peso pré-desmama em bovinos de uma população composta

Objetivou-se neste trabalho estudar modelos com efeitos não-aditivos diretos e maternos em uma população composta em clima tropical, tentando minimizar esses efeitos para obtenção dos valores genéticos dos animais avaliados. Foram utilizados dados de animais de uma população composta, por meio da comparação de três modelos que incluíram os efeitos fixos de grupo contemporâneo, ordem de parto e heterose direta e materna e os efeitos aleatórios de efeito genético aditivo direto e materno. As análises foram realizadas em duas etapas; na primeira foram estudadas as estimativas dos efeitos raciais e de heterose individual e materna e na segunda etapa, calculadas as variâncias, herdabilidades e os valores genéticos dos animais. O efeito materno, quando não foi considerado no modelo, pareceu superestimar o efeito aditivo racial. Os efeitos aditivos raciais, racial materno e de heterose individual e materna influenciaram significativamente o ganho médio diário no pré-desmame, obtendo-se diferentes estimativas entre os tipos biológicos. Considerando o arquivo de dados corrigidos para os efeitos não-aditivos diretos e maternos, as herdabilidades direta e materna foram de 0,22 e 0,20, respectivamente. Os efeitos racial materno e de heterose individual e materna foram importantes fontes de variação para o ganho médio diário no pré-desmame e devem ser considerados durante a avaliação genética de uma população multirracial.

Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Allometric models for estimating the phytomass of a secondary Atlantic Forest area of southeastern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate equations to estimate the aboveground phytomass of a 30 years old plot of Atlantic Forest. In two plots of 100 m², a total of 82 trees were cut down at ground level. For each tree, height and diameter were measured. Leaves and woody material were separated in order to determine their fresh weights in field conditions. Samples of each fraction were oven dried at 80 °C to constant weight to determine their dry weight. Tree data were divided into two random samples. One sample was used for the development of the regression equations, and the other for validation. The models were developed using single linear regression analysis, where the dependent variable was the dry mass, and the independent variables were height (h), diameter (d) and d²h. The validation was carried out using Pearson correlation coefficient, paired t-Student test and standard error of estimation. The best equations to estimate aboveground phytomass were: lnDW = -3.068+2.522lnd (r² = 0.91; s y/x = 0.67) and lnDW = -3.676+0.951ln d²h (r² = 0.94; s y/x = 0.56).

Descriptor-and fragment-based QSAR models for a series of Schistosoma mansoni purine nucleoside inhibitors

The enzyme purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Schistosoma mansoni (SmPNP) is an attractive molecular target for the treatment of major parasitic infectious diseases, with special emphasis on its role in the discovery of new drugs against schistosomiasis, a tropical disease that affects millions of people worldwide. In the present work, we have determined the inhibitory potency and developed descriptor- and fragment-based quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) for a series of 9-deazaguanine analogs as inhibitors of SmPNP. Significant statistical parameters (descriptor-based model: r² = 0.79, q² = 0.62, r²pred = 0.52; and fragment-based model: r² = 0.95, q² = 0.81, r²pred = 0.80) were obtained, indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The fragment-based model was then used to predict the inhibitory potency of a test set of compounds, and the predicted values are in good agreement with the experimental results

Comparison of some theoretical models for fittings of the temperature dependence of the fundamental energy gap in GaAs

In this work we report on a comparison of some theoretical models usually used to fit the dependence on temperature of the fundamental energy gap of semiconductor materials. We used in our investigations the theoretical models of Viña, Pässler-p and Pässler-ρ to fit several sets of experimental data, available in the literature for the energy gap of GaAs in the temperature range from 12 to 974 K. Performing several fittings for different values of the upper limit of the analyzed temperature range (Tmax), we were able to follow in a systematic way the evolution of the fitting parameters up to the limit of high temperatures and make a comparison between the zero-point values obtained from the different models by extrapolating the linear dependence of the gaps at high T to T = 0 K and that determined by the dependence of the gap on isotope mass. Using experimental data measured by absorption spectroscopy, we observed the non-linear behavior of Eg(T) of GaAs for T > ΘD.

Reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements obtained from Cecile3 digital models

The aim of this study was to determine the reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements in digital models compared to plaster models. Fifteen pairs of plaster models were obtained from orthodontic patients with permanent dentition before treatment. These were digitized to be evaluated with the program Cécile3 v2.554.2 beta. Two examiners measured three times the mesiodistal width of all the teeth present, intercanine, interpremolar and intermolar distances, overjet and overbite. The plaster models were measured using a digital vernier. The t-Student test for paired samples and interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used for statistical analysis. The ICC of the digital models were 0.84 ± 0.15 (intra-examiner) and 0.80 ± 0.19 (inter-examiner). The average mean difference of the digital models was 0.23 ± 0.14 and 0.24 ± 0.11 for each examiner, respectively. When the two types of measurements were compared, the values obtained from the digital models were lower than those obtained from the plaster models (p < 0.05), although the differences were considered clinically insignificant (differences < 0.1 mm). The Cécile digital models are a clinically acceptable alternative for use in Orthodontics.

Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007) obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1), Southeast (W2), Central (W3), East (W4), Northeast (W5) and North (W6). W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH) and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.