Experimental support for the make-up hypothesis in nestling tawny owls (Strix aluco)

Body condition can affect coloration of traits used in sexual selection and parent-offspring communication by inducing rapid internal changes in pigment concentration or aggregation, thickness of collagen arrays, or blood flux. The recent "makeup hypothesis" proposes an alternative honesty-reinforcing mechanism, with behaviorally mediated deposition of substances on body surfaces ("cosmetics") generating covariation between body condition and coloration. In birds, the uropygial gland wax is actively spread on feathers using the bill and changes in its deposition rate may cause rapid changes in bill and plumage coloration. Using tawny owl nestlings, we tested 3 predictions of the makeup hypothesis, namely that 1) quantity of preen wax deposited accounts for variation in bill coloration, 2) an immune stimulation (induced by injection of a lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) impairs uropygial gland wax production, and 3) different intensities of immune stimulations (strong vs. weak stimulations induced by injections of either LPS or phytohemagglutinin [PHA], respectively) and high versus low food availabilities result in different bill colorations. We found that 1) preen wax reduced bill brightness, 2) a challenge with LPS impaired uropygial gland development, and 3) nestlings challenged with LPS had a brighter bill than PHA-injected nestlings, whereas diet manipulation had no significant effect. Altogether, these results suggest that a strong immune challenge may decrease preen wax deposition rate on the bill of nestling birds, at least by impairing gland wax production, which causes a change in bill coloration. Our study therefore highlights that cosmetic colors might signal short-term variation in immunological status.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Plano Detalhado de Chã de Caldeiras na Ilha do Fogo – Cabo Verde

A presente dissertação procurou identificar os principais problemas e desafios que o Processo de Planeamento Urbano Sustentável (Amado,2005) coloca ao nível local no contexto insular e, através do desenhar de soluções, promover o desenvolvimento equilibrado, coeso e sustentável do respetivo território. Através de uma análise teórica procurou-se conhecer e compreender o Quadro Legal do Ordenamento do Território em Cabo Verde. A fase inicial do Ordenamento do Território no País, com a aprovação da Lei de Bases do Ordenamento do Território e Planeamento Urbanístico na década de 90, bem como a insularidade do território, a mão-de-obra pouco qualificada e os poucos recursos financeiros são os grandes desafios que o país enfrenta a nível do Ordenamento do Território. O núcleo urbano de Chã de Caldeiras, que pertence ao município de Santa Catarina do Fogo, Freguesia de Santa Catarina do Fogo, é caraterizado por uma paisagem única, comportando zonas de reserva como o Parque Natural do Fogo e pela proximidade ao vulcão, sendo uma das localidades com maiores atrativos naturais no arquipélago de Cabo Verde. Ora, devido à inexistência de qualquer instrumento de gestão territorial até à atualidade, a área de intervenção do Plano Detalhado, apresenta uma fraca hierarquização da rede urbana e malha viária, construções inacabadas e de fraca qualidade, inexistência de praças e locais de convívio e carencias em termos de infraestruturas básicas (agua, luz e saneamento). Este trabalho pretende ser um contributo para um Desenvolvimento Sustentável para Chã de Caldeiras, (re)qualificando o espaço urbano, zelando pelos interesses da população local e garantindo desta forma a melhoria da qualidade de vida num espaço temporal alargado.

On the complexity of rationalizing behavior

We study the complexity of rationalizing choice behavior. We do so by analyzing two polar cases, and a number of intermediate ones. In our most structured case, that is where choice behavior is defined in universal choice domains and satisfies the "weak axiom of revealed preference," finding the complete preorder rationalizing choice behavior is a simple matter. In the polar case, where no restriction whatsoever is imposed, either on choice behavior or on choice domain, finding the complete preordersthat rationalize behavior turns out to be intractable. We show that the task of finding the rationalizing complete preorders is equivalent to a graph problem. This allows the search for existing algorithms in the graph theory literature, for the rationalization of choice.

Study of the mayfly order Ephemeroptera (Insecta) in Brazil: a scienciometric review

Study of the mayfly order Ephemeroptera (Insecta) in Brazil: a scienciometric review. Despite an increase in the number of studies in recent years of the aquatic insect order Ephemeroptera (the mayflies) much still remains to be learnt. In order to identify the current state of knowledge of this group in Brazil, we performed a scienciometric analysis with the purpose of identifying the strong and weak points of Brazilian research into the group. Our research used the "Institute for Scientific Information - ISI" database and was based on the abstracts, titles and keywords of manuscripts published between 1992 and 2011. We selected the papers with the combination of the words "Ephemeroptera" and "Brazil*" based on a search in February 2012. We analyzed 92 articles, and noted a lack of studies in some Brazilian states, no specific studies about some families, and an absence of phylogenetic studies. To improve ecological studies, it is necessary to fine-tune taxonomic resolution. Moreover, there is a lack of studies investigating the environmental variables which influence the distribution of mayflies. Despite these gaps, if the rate of publication with mayflies proceeds at the same pace, we anticipate that many of these knowledge gaps will be closed.

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock: 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to the original Surviving Sepsis Campaign clinical management guidelines, "Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock," published in 2004. DESIGN: Modified Delphi method with a consensus conference of 55 international experts, several subsequent meetings of subgroups and key individuals, teleconferences, and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee. This process was conducted independently of any industry funding. METHODS: We used the GRADE system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations. A strong recommendation indicates that an intervention's desirable effects clearly outweigh its undesirable effects (risk, burden, cost), or clearly do not. Weak recommendations indicate that the tradeoff between desirable and undesirable effects is less clear. The grade of strong or weak is considered of greater clinical importance than a difference in letter level of quality of evidence. In areas without complete agreement, a formal process of resolution was developed and applied. Recommendations are grouped into those directly targeting severe sepsis, recommendations targeting general care of the critically ill patient that are considered high priority in severe sepsis, and pediatric considerations. RESULTS: Key recommendations, listed by category, include: early goal-directed resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 hrs after recognition (1C); blood cultures prior to antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm potential source of infection (1C); administration of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy within 1 hr of diagnosis of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1D); reassessment of antibiotic therapy with microbiology and clinical data to narrow coverage, when appropriate (1C); a usual 7-10 days of antibiotic therapy guided by clinical response (1D); source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method (1C); administration of either crystalloid or colloid fluid resuscitation (1B); fluid challenge to restore mean circulating filling pressure (1C); reduction in rate of fluid administration with rising filing pressures and no improvement in tissue perfusion (1D); vasopressor preference for norepinephrine or dopamine to maintain an initial target of mean arterial pressure > or = 65 mm Hg (1C); dobutamine inotropic therapy when cardiac output remains low despite fluid resuscitation and combined inotropic/vasopressor therapy (1C); stress-dose steroid therapy given only in septic shock after blood pressure is identified to be poorly responsive to fluid and vasopressor therapy (2C); recombinant activated protein C in patients with severe sepsis and clinical assessment of high risk for death (2B except 2C for post-operative patients). In the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage, target a hemoglobin of 7-9 g/dL (1B); a low tidal volume (1B) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure strategy (1C) for acute lung injury (ALI)/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure in acute lung injury (1C); head of bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); avoiding routine use of pulmonary artery catheters in ALI/ARDS (1A); to decrease days of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay, a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ALI/ARDS who are not in shock (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation/analgesia (1B); using either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation with daily interruptions or lightening (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers, if at all possible (1B); institution of glycemic control (1B) targeting a blood glucose < 150 mg/dL after initial stabilization ( 2C ); equivalency of continuous veno-veno hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1A); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper GI bleeding using H2 blockers (1A) or proton pump inhibitors (1B); and consideration of limitation of support where appropriate (1D). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include: greater use of physical examination therapeutic end points (2C); dopamine as the first drug of choice for hypotension (2C); steroids only in children with suspected or proven adrenal insufficiency (2C); a recommendation against the use of recombinant activated protein C in children (1B). CONCLUSION: There was strong agreement among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best current care of patients with severe sepsis. Evidenced-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the first step toward improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients.

History of diabetes and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis from the international head and neck cancer epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: A history of diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancers. Whether diabetes is a risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC) has received little attention. METHODS: We pooled data from 12 case-control studies including 6,448 cases and 13,747 controls, and estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between diabetes and HNC, adjusted for age, education level, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We observed a weak association between diabetes and the incidence of HNC overall (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24). However, we observed a modest association among never smokers (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22-2.07), and no association among ever smokers (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.11); likelihood ratio test for interaction p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes was weakly associated with HNC overall, but we observed evidence of effect modification by smoking status, with a positive association among those who never smoked cigarettes. Impact: This study suggests that glucose metabolism abnormalities may be a HNC risk factor in subgroups of the population. Prospective studies incorporating biomarkers are needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between diabetes and HNC risk, possibly providing new strategies in the prevention of HNC.

Taking Chances on Integrity: An Investigation of the Iowa Lottery

The Iowa Lottery has failed to adequately protect its customers from fraud and theft by retailers. That is the key conclusion of the Iowa Citizens’ Aide/Ombudsman in a critical report released today. The 210-page report, which makes 60 recommendations to the Lottery, is the culmination of a year-and-a-half-long investigation into how the Lottery polices and prevents retailer fraud and theft. In general, the Ombudsman found that the Lottery has maintained a weak, reactive enforcement system that fails to detect retailer dishonesty independently of customer complaints. This means that there likely have been instances of fraud – possibly largescale fraud – that have gone undetected. The Ombudsman’s examination marks the first time the Iowa Lottery’s investigative files have been audited by an outside authority. It also appears to be the first full-scale investigation of its kind in the United States.

Reliability of the image evaluation system PGMI

Purpose: Many countries used the PGMI (P=perfect, G=good, M=moderate, I=inadequate) classification system for assessing the quality of mammograms. Limits inherent to the subjectivity of this classification have been shown. Prior to introducing this system in Switzerland, we wanted to better understand the origin of this subjectivity in order to minimize it. Our study aimed at identifying the main determinants of the variability of the PGMI system and which criteria are the most subjected to subjectivity. Methods and Materials: A focus group composed of 2 experienced radiographers and 2 radiologists specified each PGMI criterion. Ten raters (6 radiographers and 4 radiologists) evaluated twice a panel of 40 randomly selected mammograms (20 analogic and 20 digital) according to these specified PGMI criteria. The PGMI classification was assessed and the intra- and inter-rater reliability was tested for each professional group (radiographer vs radiologist), image technology (analogic vs digital) and PGMI criterion. Results: Some 3,200 images were assessed. The intra-rater reliability appears to be weak, particularly in respect to inter-rater variability. Subjectivity appears to be largely independent of the professional group and image technology. Aspects of the PGMI classification criteria most subjected to variability were identified. Conclusion: Post-test discussions enabled to specify more precisely some criteria. This should reduce subjectivity when applying the PGMI classification system. A concomitant, important effort in training radiographers is also necessary.

Induction of the Arabidopsis PHO1;H10 gene by 12-oxo-phytodienoic acid but not jasmonic acid via a CORONATINE INSENSITIVE1-dependent pathway

Expression of AtPHO1;H10, a member of the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) PHO1 gene family, is strongly induced following numerous abiotic and biotic stresses, including wounding, dehydration, cold, salt, and pathogen attack. AtPHO1;H10 expression by wounding was localized to the cells in the close vicinity of the wound site. AtPHO1;H10 expression was increased by application of the jasmonic acid (JA) precursor 12-oxo-phytodienoic acid (OPDA), but not by JA or coronatine. Surprisingly, induction of AtPHO1;H10 by OPDA was dependent on the presence of CORONATINE INSENSITIVE1 (COI1). The induction of AtPHO1;H10 expression by wounding and dehydration was dependent on COI1 and was comparable in both the wild type and the OPDA reductase 3-deficient (opr3) mutant. In contrast, induction of AtPHO1;H10 expression by exogenous abscisic acid (ABA) was independent of the presence of either OPDA or COI1, but was strongly decreased in the ABA-insensitive mutant abi1-1. The involvement of the ABA pathway in regulating AtPHO1;H10 was distinct between wounding and dehydration, with induction of AtPHO1;H10 by wounding being comparable to wild type in the ABA-deficient mutant aba1-3 and abi1-1, whereas a strong reduction in AtPHO1;H10 expression occurred in aba1-3 and abi1-1 following dehydration. Together, these results reveal that OPDA can modulate gene expression via COI1 in a manner distinct from JA, and independently from ABA. Furthermore, the implication of the ABA pathway in coregulating AtPHO1;H10 expression is dependent on the abiotic stress applied, being weak under wounding but strong upon dehydration

Perception et communication du risque: du diabète à la maladie cardiovasculaire [Risk perception and communication: from diabetes to cardiovascular diseases].

Evidence-based medicine has enabled to approach disease in a more rational and scientific way. Clinical research has identified behaviours and risk factors that could cause disease often "silent" at the beginning, such as diabetes. Despite the clear impact of these evidences on public health, it seems that the individual risk perception level remains weak. To mention as well, the health professionals very often have a different views, which makes it difficult to communicate the risk with patients. In this article we describe the principles of risk perception, the diabetes related risk perception concerning cardiovascular complications, and suggest some practical strategies and tools which could improve risk communication in the everyday practice.