954 resultados para trend following mean reversion


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The last time a peer-reviewed volume on the future of mental health facilities was produced was in 1959, following a symposium organised by the American Psychological Association. The consensus was easy enough to follow and still resonates today: the best spaces to treat psychiatric illness will be in smaller, less restrictive units that offer more privacy and allow greater personalisation of space – possibly a converted hotel (Goshen, 1959). In some way, all those ideals have come to pass. An ideal typology was never established, but even so, units have shrunk from thousands of beds to units that typically house no more than 50 patients. Patients are generally more independent and are free to wander (within a unit) as they please. But the trend toward smaller and freer is reversing. This change is not driven by a desire to find the ideal building nor better models of care, but by growing concerns about budgets, self-harm and psychiatric violence. This issue of the Facilities comes at a time when the healthcare design is increasingly dominated by codes, statutes and guidelines. But the articles herein are a call to stop and think. We are not at the point where guidelines can be helpful, because they do not embody any depth of knowledge nor wisdom. These articles are intended to inject some new research on psychiatric/environmental interactions and also to remind planners and managers that guidelines might not tackle a core misunderstanding: fear-management about patient safety and the safety of society is not the purpose of the psychiatric facility. It is purpose is to create spaces that are suitable for improving the well-being of the mentally ill.

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Purpose To examine whether anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness undergoes significant diurnal variation over a 24-hour period. Methods Nineteen healthy young adults (mean age 22 ± 2 years) with minimal refractive error (mean spherical equivalent refraction -0.08 ± 0.39 D), had measures of anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness collected using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) at seven measurement sessions over a 24-hour period. The thickness of the temporal anterior sclera and conjunctiva were determined at 6 locations (each separated by 0.5 mm) at varying distances from the scleral spur for each subject at each measurement session. Results Both the anterior sclera and conjunctiva were found to undergo significant diurnal variations in thickness over a 24-hour period (both p <0.01). The sclera and conjunctiva exhibited a similar pattern of diurnal change, with a small magnitude thinning observed close to midday, and a larger magnitude thickening observed in the early morning immediately after waking. The amplitude of diurnal thickness change was larger in the conjunctiva (mean amplitude 69 ± 29 μm) compared to the sclera (21 ± 8 μm). The conjunctiva exhibited its smallest magnitude of change at the scleral spur location (mean amplitude 56 ± 17 μm) whereas the sclera exhibited its largest magnitude of change at this location (52 ± 21 μm). Conclusions This study provides the first evidence of diurnal variations occurring in the thickness of the anterior sclera and conjunctiva. Studies requiring precise measures of these anatomical layers should therefore take time of day into consideration. The majority of the observed changes occurred in the early morning immediately after waking and were of larger magnitude in the conjunctiva compared to the sclera. Thickness changes at other times of the day were of smaller magnitude and generally not statistically significant.

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To quantify regional (nasal, superior, temporal and inferior) and location specific (corneal and scleral) tissue compression following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear.

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High Intensity Exercise (HIE) stimulates greater physiological remodeling when compared to workload matched low-moderate intensity exercise. This study utilized an untargeted metabolomics approach to examine the metabolic perturbations that occur following two workload matched supramaximal low volume HIE trials. In a randomized order, 7 untrained males completed two exercise protocols separated by one week; 1) HIE150%: 30 x 20s cycling at 150% VO2peak, 40s passive rest; 2) HIE300%: 30 x 10s cycling at 300% VO2peak, 50 s passive rest. Total exercise duration was 30 minutes for both trials. Blood samples were taken at rest, during and immediately following exercise and at 60 minutes post exercise. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis of plasma identified 43 known metabolites of which 3 demonstrated significant fold changes (HIE300% compared to the HIE150% value) during exercise, 14 post exercise and 23 at the end of the recovery period. Significant changes in plasma metabolites relating to lipid metabolism [fatty acids: dodecanoate (p=0.042), hexadecanoate (p=0.001), octadecanoate (p=0.001)], total cholesterol (p=0.001), and glycolysis [lactate (p=0.018)] were observed following exercise and during the recovery period. The HIE300% protocol elicited greater metabolic changes relating to lipid metabolism and glycolysis when compared to HIE150% protocol. These changes were more pronounced throughout the recovery period rather than during the exercise bout itself. Data from the current study demonstrate the use of metabolomics to monitor intensity-dependent changes in multiple metabolic pathways following exercise. The small sample size indicates a need for further studies in a larger sample cohort to validate these findings.

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A central tenet underlying studies on management fashions is that the diffusion of novel forms, models and techniques is driven by an institutional norm of progress, which is the societal expectation that managers will continuously use 'new and improved' management practices. We add to the literature on management fashions by arguing that, if the display of progressiveness in the manner of managing and organizing is expected of organizations, firms that are visibly progressive would be evaluated more positively by organizational audiences following this institutional prescription. Using article counts of co-occurrences of firms and various fashionable management practices in Wall Street Journal, we hypothesize positive effects of such associations on security analysts' evaluations of these firms. Results support this hypothesis. Our study enriches the management fashion literature by highlighting the consequential relevance of organizational adherence to the norm of progress.

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This thesis examines the interrelationship and dynamics between the Indian United Progressive Alliance government’s foreign policy and its nuclear weapons policy. The purpose of the study is to situate nuclear policy within a foreign policy framework, and the fundamental research problem is thus how does the Indian nuclear policy reflect and respond to the Indian foreign policy? The study examines the intentions in the Indian foreign and nuclear policies, and asks whether these intentions are commensurable or incommensurable. Moreover, the thesis asks whether the UPA government differs from its predecessors, most notably the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government in its foreign and nuclear policies. Answers to these questions are based on the interpretation of political texts and speeches as suggested by Quentin Skinner’s notion of meaning3, what does a writer or speaker mean by what he or she says in a given text, and by J.L. Austin’s speech act theory. This linguistic perspective and the approach of intertextualizing, place the political acts within their contingent intellectual and political contexts. The notion of strategic culture is therefore introduced to provide context for these juxtapositions. The thesis firstly analyses the societal, historical and intellectual context of India’s foreign and nuclear policy. Following from this analysis the thesis then examines the foreign and nuclear policies of Prime Minister Manmo-han Singh’s UPA government. This analysis focuses on the texts, speeches and statements of Indian authorities between 2004 and 2008. This study forwards the following claims: firstly, the UPA Government conducts a foreign policy that is mainly and explicitly inclusive, open and enhancing, and it conducts a nuclear policy that is mainly and implicitly excluding, closed and protective. Secondly, despite the fact that the notion of military security is widely appreciated and does not, as such, necessarily collide with foreign policy, the UPA Government conducts a nuclear policy that is incommensurable with its foreign policy. Thirdly, the UPA Gov-ernment foreign and nuclear policies are, nevertheless, commensurable re-garding their internal intentions. Finally, the UPA Government is conduct-ing a nuclear policy that is gradually leading India towards having a triad of nuclear weapons with various platforms and device designs and a function-ing and robust command and control system encompassing political and military planning, decision-making and execution. Regarding the question of the possible differences between the UPA and NDA governments this thesis claims that, despite their different ideological roots and orientations in domestic affairs, the Indian National Congress Party conducts, perhaps surprisingly, quite a similar foreign and nuclear policy to the Bharatiya Janata Party.

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The paper deals with an exact analysis of standing waves in an impedance tube with mean flow. A method is offered for the experimental evaluation of the various wave parameters. Navier–Stokes equations have been solved for evaluating the volume velocity taking into account mean flow, viscosity, etc. The engine exhaust system has been characterized as an acoustic source with an acoustic pressure and internal impedance. A method is suggested for the evaluation of these hypothetical parameters using the exhaust pipe as an impedance tube.Subject Classification: [43]85.20; [43]20.40.

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Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

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Caesarean section is the most common surgical procedure performed on women worldwide and infections following caesarean section occur in approximately 10% of Australian women...