Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Report from The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease: cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease (Part 1-Procedural nomenclature)

Interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease is a relatively young and rapidly evolving field. As the profession begins to establish multi-institutional databases, a universal system of nomenclature is necessary for the field of interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the efforts of The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease to establish a system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease, focusing both on procedural nomenclature and on the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology. This system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease is a component of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. This manuscript is the first part of a two-part series. Part 1 will cover the procedural nomenclature associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. This procedural nomenclature of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code will be used in the IMPACT Registry (TM) (IMproving Pediatric and Adult Congenital Treatment) of the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (R) of The American College of Cardiology. Part 2 will cover the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease.

Report from The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease: cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease (Part 2-Nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology)

Interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease is a relatively young and rapidly evolving field. As the profession begins to establish multi-institutional databases, a universal system of nomenclature is necessary for the field of interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the efforts of The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease to establish a system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease, focusing both on procedural nomenclature and the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology. This system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease is a component of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. This manuscript is the second part of the two-part series. Part 1 covered the procedural nomenclature associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. Part 2 will cover the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease.

Effect of bolus volume on proximal esophageal contractions of patients with Chagas` disease and patients with idiopathic achalasia

Chagas` disease and idiopathic achalasia patients have similar impairment of distal esophageal motility. In Chagas` disease, the contractions occurring in the distal esophageal body are similar after wet or dry swallows. Our aim in this investigation was to evaluate the effect of wet swallows and dry swallows on proximal esophageal contractions of patients with Chagas` disease and with idiopathic achalasia. We studied 49 patients with Chagas` disease, 25 patients with idiopathic achalasia, and 33 normal volunteers. We recorded by the manometric method with continuous water perfusion the pharyngeal contractions 1 cm above the upper esophageal sphincter and the proximal esophageal contractions 5 cm from the pharyngeal recording point. Each subject performed in duplicate swallows of 3-mL and 6-mL boluses of water and dry swallows. We measured the time between the onset of pharyngeal contractions and the onset of proximal esophageal contractions (pharyngeal-esophageal time [ PET]), and the amplitude, duration, and area under the curve (AUC) of proximal esophageal contractions. Patients with Chagas` disease and with achalasia had longer PET, lower esophageal proximal contraction amplitude, and lower AUC than controls (P <= 0.02). In Chagas` disease, wet swallows caused shorter PET, higher amplitude, and higher AUC than dry swallows (P <= 0.03). There was no difference between swallows of 3- or 6-mL boluses. There was no difference between patients with Chagas` disease and with idiopathic achalasia. We conclude that patients with Chagas` disease and with idiopathic achalasia have a delay in the proximal esophageal response and lower amplitude of the proximal esophageal contractions.

Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Basic Concepts of Nitric Oxide Physiology, Endothelial Dysfunction, Oxidative Stress and Therapeutic Possibilities

The vascular manifestations associated with diabetes mellitus (DM) result from the dysfunction of several vascular physiology components mainly involving the endothelium, vascular smooth muscle and platelets. It is also known that hyperglycemia-induced oxidative stress plays a role in the development of this dysfunction. This review considers the basic physiology of the endothelium, especially related to the synthesis and function of nitric oxide. We also discuss the pathophysiology of vascular disease associated with DM. This includes the role of hyperglycemia in the induction of oxidative stress and the role of advanced glycation end-products. We also consider therapeutic strategies.

The improvement of care for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease across the World: a challenge for the World Society for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Surgery

The diagnosis and treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease has undergone remarkable progress over the last 60 years. Unfortunately, this progress has been largely limited to the developed world. Yet every year approximately 90% of the more than 1,000,000 children who are born with congenital cardiac disease across the world receive either suboptimal care or are totally denied care. While in the developed world the focus has changed from an effort to decrease post-operative mortality to now improving quality of life and decreasing morbidity, which the focus of this Supplement, the rest of the world still needs to develop basic access to congenital cardiac care. The World Society for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Surgery [http://www.wspchs.org/] was established in 2006. The Vision of the World Society is that every child born anywhere in the world with a congenital heart defect should have access to appropriate medical and surgical care. The Mission of the World Society is to promote the highest quality comprehensive care to all patients with pediatric and/or congenital heart disease, from the fetus to the adult, regardless of the patient`s economic means, with emphasis on excellence in education, research and community service. We present in this article an overview of the epidemiology of congenital cardiac disease, the current and future challenges to improve care in the developed and developing world, the impact of the globalization of cardiac surgery, and the role that the World Society should play. The World Society for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Surgery is in a unique position to influence and truly improve the global care of children and adults with congenital cardiac disease throughout the world [http://www.wspchs.org/].

Use of lignin extracted from different plant sources as standards in the spectrophotometric acetyl bromide lignin method

A nongravimetric acetyl bromide lignin (ABL) method was evaluated to quantify lignin concentration in a variety of plant materials. The traditional approach to lignin quantification required extraction of lignin with acidic dioxane and its isolation from each plant sample to construct a standard curve via spectrophotometric analysis. Lignin concentration was then measured in pre-extracted plant cell walls. However, this presented a methodological complexity because extraction and isolation procedures are lengthy and tedious, particularly if there are many samples involved. This work was targeted to simplify lignin quantification. Our hypothesis was that any lignin, regardless of its botanical origin, could be used to construct a standard curve for the purpose of determining lignin concentration in a variety of plants. To test our hypothesis, lignins were isolated from a range of diverse plants and, along with three commercial lignins, standard curves were built and compared among them. Slopes and intercepts derived from these standard curves were close enough to allow utilization of a mean extinction coefficient in the regression equation to estimate : lignin concentration in any plant, independent of its botanical origin. Lignin quantification by use of a common regression equation obviates the steps of lignin extraction, isolation, and standard curve construction, which substantially expedites the ABL method. Acetyl bromide lignin method is a fast, convenient analytical procedure that may routinely be used to quantify lignin.

Wild canids, domestic dogs and their pathogens in Southeast Brazil: disease threats for canid conservation

Wild canids are under many pressures, including habitat loss, fragmentation and disease. The current lack of information on the status of wildlife health may hamper conservation efforts in Brazil. In this paper, we examined the prevalence of canine pathogens in 21 free-ranging wild canids, comprising 12 Cerdocyon thous (crab-eating fox), 7 Chrysocyon brachyurus (maned wolf), 2 Lycalopex vetulus (hoary fox), and 70 non-vaccinated domestic dogs from the Serra do Cip National Park area, Southeast Brazil. For wild canids, seroprevalence of antibodies to canine parvovirus, canine adenovirus, canine coronavirus and Toxoplasma gondii was 100 (21/21), 33 (7/21), 5 (1/19) and 68 (13/19) percent, respectively. Antibodies against canine distemper virus, Neospora caninum or Babesia spp. were not found. We tested domestic dogs for antibodies to canine parvovirus, canine distemper virus and Babesia spp., and seroprevalences were 59 (41/70), 66 (46/70), and 42 (40/70) percent, respectively, with significantly higher prevalence in domestic dogs for CDV (P < 0.001) and Babesia spp. (P = 0.002), and in wild canids for CPV (P < 0.001). We report for the first time evidence of exposure to canine coronavirus in wild hoary foxes, and Platynossomun sp. infection in wild maned wolves. Maned wolves are more exposed to helminths than crab-eating foxes, with a higher prevalence of Trichuridae and Ancylostomidae in the area. The most common ectoparasites were Amblyomma cajennense, A. tigrinum, and Pulex irritans. Such data is useful information on infectious diseases of Brazilian wild canids, revealing pathogens as a threat to wild canids in the area. Control measures are discussed.

Modeling the Competition Between Viruses in a Complex Plant-Pathogen System

In this article, we propose a mathematical model that describes the competition between two plant virus strains (MAV and PAV) for both the host plant (oat) and their aphid vectors. We found that although PAV is transmitted by two aphids and MAV by only one, this fact, by itself, does not explain the complete replacement of MAV by PAV in New York State during the period from 1961 through 1976; an interpretation that is in agreement with the theories of A. G. Power. Also, although MAV wins the competition within aphids, we assumed that, in 1961, PAV mutated into a new variant such that this new variant was able to overcome MAV within the plants during a latent period. As shown below, this is sufficient to explain the swap of strains; that is, the dominant MAV was replaced by PAV, also in agreement with Power`s expectations.