Prediction of perinatal depression from adolescence and before conception (VIHCS): 20-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a neglected global health priority, affecting 10-15% of women in high-income countries and a greater proportion in low-income countries. Outcomes for children include cognitive, behavioural, and emotional difficulties and, in low-income settings, perinatal depression is associated with stunting and physical illness. In the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS), we aimed to assess the extent to which women with perinatal depressive symptoms had a history of mental health problems before conception. METHODS: VIHCS is a follow-up study of participants in the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS), which was initiated in August, 1992, in the state of Victoria, Australia. In VAHCS, participants were assessed for health outcomes at nine timepoints (waves) from age 14 years to age 29 years. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule and the General Health Questionnaire. Enrolment to VIHCS began in September, 2006, during the ninth wave of VAHCS; depressive symptoms at this timepoint were measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We contacted women every 6 months (from age 29 years to age 35 years) to identify any pregnancies. We assessed perinatal depressive symptoms with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) by computer-assisted telephone interview at 32 weeks of gestation, 8 weeks after birth, and 12 months after birth. We defined perinatal depression as an EPDS score of 10 or more. FINDINGS: From a stratified random sample of 1000 female participants in VAHCS, we enrolled 384 women with 564 pregnancies. 253 (66%) of these women had a previous history of mental health problems at some point in adolescence or young adulthood. 117 women with a history of mental health problems in both adolescence and young adulthood had 168 pregnancies, and perinatal depressive symptoms were reported for 57 (34%) of these pregnancies, compared with 16 (8%) of 201 pregnancies in 131 women with no preconception history of mental health problems (adjusted odds ratio 8·36, 95% CI 3·34-20·87). Perinatal depressive symptoms were reported at one or more assessment points in 109 pregnancies; a preconception history of mental health problems was reported in 93 (85%) of these pregnancies. INTERPRETATION: Perinatal depressive symptoms are mostly preceded by mental health problems that begin before pregnancy, in adolescence or young adulthood. Women with a history of persisting common mental disorders before pregnancy are an identifiable high-risk group, deserving of clinical support throughout the childbearing years. Furthermore, the window for considering preventive intervention for perinatal depression should extend to the time before conception. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Colonial Foundation, Australian Rotary Health Research and Perpetual Trustees.

Which infants with eczema are at risk of food allergy? Results from a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND: The relationship between early onset eczema and food allergy among infants has never been examined in a population-based sample using the gold standard for diagnosis, oral food challenge. OBJECTIVE: We characterised the risk of challenge-proven food allergy among infants with eczema in the general population. METHODS: One-year-old infants (n = 4453 meeting criteria for this analysis) were assessed for history of eczema, received a nurse-administered eczema examination and underwent skin prick testing to peanut, egg and sesame. Those with a detectable wheal to one of the test foods underwent an oral food challenge irrespective of wheal size. The risk of food allergy, stratified by eczema severity and age of onset, was estimated using multivariate logistic regression with population sampling weights. RESULTS: One in five infants with eczema were allergic to peanut, egg white or sesame, compared to one in twenty-five infants without eczema (OR 6.2, 95% CI 4.9, 7.9, P < 0.001). The prevalence of peanut allergy was low in the absence of eczema (0.7% 95% CI 0.4, 1.1). Infants with eczema were 11.0 times more likely to develop peanut allergy (95% CI 6.6, 18.6) and 5.8 times more likely to develop egg allergy (95% CI 4.6, 7.4) by 12 months than infants without eczema. 50.8% of infants (95% CI 42.8, 58.9) with early eczema onset (<3 months) who required doctor-prescribed topical corticosteroid treatment developed challenge-proven food allergy. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Eczema, across the clinical severity spectrum in infancy, is a strong risk factor for IgE-mediated food allergy. Infants with eczema were six times more likely to have egg allergy and 11 times more likely to have peanut allergy by 12 months than infants without eczema. Our data suggest that a heightened awareness of food allergy risk among healthcare practitioners treating infants with eczema, especially if early onset and severe, is warranted.

A telephone support program to reduce costs and hospital admissions for patients at risk of readmissions: lessons from an evaluation of a complex health intervention

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a telephone health coaching and support service provided to members of an Australian private health insurance fund-Telephonic Complex Care Program (TCCP)-on hospital use and associated costs. A case-control pre-post study design was employed using propensity score matching. Private health insurance members (n=273) who participated in TCCP between April and December 2012 (cases) were matched (1:1) to members who had not previously been enrolled in the program or any other disease management programs offered by the insurer (n=232). Eligible members were community dwelling, aged ≥65 years, and had 2 or more hospital admissions in the 12 months prior to program enrollment. Preprogram variables that estimated the propensity score included: participant demographics, diagnoses, and hospital use in the 12 months prior to program enrollment. TCCP participants received one-to-one telephone support, personalized care plan, and referral to community-based services. Control participants continued to access usual health care services. Primary outcomes were number of hospital admission claims and total benefits paid for all health care utilizations in the 12 months following program enrollment. Secondary outcomes included change in total benefits paid, hospital benefits paid, ancillary benefits paid, and total hospital bed days over the 12 months post enrollment. Compared with matched controls, TCCP did not appear to reduce health care utilization or benefits paid in the 12 months following program enrollment. However, program characteristics and implementation may have impacted its effectiveness. In addition, challenges related to evaluating complex health interventions such as TCCP are discussed.

Improved risk predictions via sparse imputation of patient conditions in electronic medical records

Electronic Medical Records (EMR) are increasingly used for risk prediction. EMR analysis is complicated by missing entries. There are two reasons - the “primary reason for admission” is included in EMR, but the co-morbidities (other chronic diseases) are left uncoded, and, many zero values in the data are accurate, reflecting that a patient has not accessed medical facilities. A key challenge is to deal with the peculiarities of this data - unlike many other datasets, EMR is sparse, reflecting the fact that patients have some, but not all diseases. We propose a novel model to fill-in these missing values, and use the new representation for prediction of key hospital events. To “fill-in” missing values, we represent the feature-patient matrix as a product of two low rank factors, preserving the sparsity property in the product. Intuitively, the product regularization allows sparse imputation of patient conditions reflecting common comorbidities across patients. We develop a scalable optimization algorithm based on Block coordinate descent method to find an optimal solution. We evaluate the proposed framework on two real world EMR cohorts: Cancer (7000 admissions) and Acute Myocardial Infarction (2652 admissions). Our result shows that the AUC for 3 months admission prediction is improved significantly from (0.741 to 0.786) for Cancer data and (0.678 to 0.724) for AMI data. We also extend the proposed method to a supervised model for predicting of multiple related risk outcomes (e.g. emergency presentations and admissions in hospital over 3, 6 and 12 months period) in an integrated framework. For this model, the AUC averaged over outcomes is improved significantly from (0.768 to 0.806) for Cancer data and (0.685 to 0.748) for AMI data.

Transitional experiences of international postgraduate students utilising a peer mentor programme

Background: Mentoring provides a range of benefits and one of them is social support. The number of students in transnational education has been increasing, and their transition into university is often fraught with difficulties. Universities can support transition through the use of a peer mentor programme (PMP).

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate the transitional issues that international postgraduate students (IPSs) face in their transition to an Australian University. The study also investigated the role played by a mentoring programme, and how this assists students with their transition.

Sample: The sample included 31 IPSs, who had come from Asian European, Middle Eastern, African and South American countries, 15 being male, and 16 being female, with an average age of 24; most had been studying at the Australian University for more than 12 months.

Design and methods: The study utilised a qualitative research method to examine the experiences of IPSs undergoing transition from their home universities to an Australian university. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with students, who were asked about their transition experiences and the assistance of the mentor programme. Thematic analysis was then conducted to determine themes from the research.

Results: IPSs reported mixed experiences with their transition. Those with difficulties referred to loneliness, different studying practices, finding accommodation and making friends. IPSs reported that the PMP helped, as mentors provided the necessary social support, friendship, information and confidence to overcome those difficulties. Those students who did not have problems with their transition had reported that they had friends or family that assisted them with their transition. As a result, these students did not need the support of mentors to the same degree as those students having problems.

Conclusions: It is concluded that mentor programmes were important for transitioning IPSs who had difficulties. Therefore, this study identified a role for a PMP in universities where there are a high proportion of IPSs who are going through transitional problems.

Resistive vibration exercise attenuates bone and muscle atrophy in 56 days of bed rest: biochemical markers of bone metabolism

UNLABELLED: During and after prolonged bed rest, changes in bone metabolic markers occur within 3 days. Resistive vibration exercise during bed rest impedes bone loss and restricts increases in bone resorption markers whilst increasing bone formation. INTRODUCTION: To investigate the effectiveness of a resistive vibration exercise (RVE) countermeasure during prolonged bed rest using serum markers of bone metabolism and whole-body dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as endpoints. METHODS: Twenty healthy male subjects underwent 8 weeks of bed rest with 12 months follow-up. Ten subjects performed RVE. Blood drawings and DXA measures were conducted regularly during and after bed rest. RESULTS: Bone resorption increased in the CTRL group with a less severe increase in the RVE group (p = 0.0004). Bone formation markers increased in the RVE group but decreased marginally in the CTRL group (p < 0.0001). At the end of bed rest, the CTRL group showed significant loss in leg bone mass (-1.8(0.9)%, p = 0.042) whereas the RVE group did not (-0.7(0.8)%, p = 0.405) although the difference between the groups was not significant (p = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest the countermeasure restricts increases in bone resorption, increased bone formation, and reduced bone loss during bed rest.

The effects of bed-rest and countermeasure exercise on the endocrine system in male adults: evidence for immobilization-induced reduction in sex hormone-binding globulin levels

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is limited data on the effects of inactivity (prolonged bed-rest) on parameters of endocrine and metabolic function; we therefore aimed to examine changes in these systems during and after prolonged (56- day) bed-rest in male adults. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Twenty healthy male subjects underwent 8 weeks of strict bed-rest and 12 months of follow-up as part of the Berlin Bed Rest Study. Subjects were randomized to an inactive group or a group that performed resistive vibration exercise (RVE) during bed-rest. All outcome parameters were measured before, during and after bed-rest. These included body composition (by whole body dual X-ray absorptiometry), SHBG, testosterone (T), estradiol (E2), PRL, cortisol (C), TSH and free T3 (FT3). RESULTS: Serum SHBG levels decreased in inactive subjects but remained unchanged in the RVE group (p<0.001). Serum T concentrations increased during the first 3 weeks of bed-rest in both groups (p<0.0001), while E2 levels sharply rose with re-mobilization (p<0.0001). Serum PRL decreased in the control group but increased in the RVE group (p=0.021). C levels did not change over time (p≥0.10). TSH increased whilst FT3 decreased during bed-rest (p all ≤0.0013). CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged bed-rest has significant effects on parameters of endocrine and metabolic function, some of which are related to, or counteracted by physical activity.

The immediate and sustained long-term changes in daytime sleepiness after participation in a workplace pedometer program: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential benefit of a workplace physical activity program on daytime sleepiness. METHODS: A total of 685 participants of a 4-month workplace physical activity program were assessed for daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale [ESS]) at baseline, 4 months (postprogram), and 12 months. Changes in ESS were analyzed using multilevel mixed linear regression. RESULTS: In the total population, no changes in ESS scores were observed; 0 to 4 months: -0.2 (95% CI: -0.5 to 0.0), 4 to 12 months: 0.1 (95% CI: -0.2 to 0.4). In participants with baseline excessive daytime sleepiness (ESS > 10, n = 109), ESS scores improved significantly by -2.2 (95% CI: -3.0 to -1.4) at 4 months, sustained at 12 months; and almost half no longer had excessive daytime sleepiness by end of program. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that for employees with excessive daytime sleepiness, short- and long-term improvement in daytime sleepiness may be an unforeseen benefit of workplace physical activity programs.

Challenges of diabetes prevention in the real world : results and lessons from the Melbourne diabetes prevention study

OBJECTIVE: To assess effectiveness and implementability of the public health programme Life! Taking action on diabetes in Australian people at risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Melbourne Diabetes Prevention Study (MDPS) was a unique study assessing effectiveness of Life! that used a randomized controlled trial design. Intervention participants with AUSDRISK score ≥15 received 1 individual and 5 structured 90 min group sessions. Controls received usual care. Outcome measures were obtained for all participants at baseline and 12 months and, additionally, for intervention participants at 3 months. Per protocol set (PPS) and intention to treat (ITT) analyses were performed.

RESULTS: PPS analyses were considered more informative from our study. In PPS analyses, intervention participants significantly improved in weight (-1.13 kg, p=0.016), waist circumference (-1.35 cm, p=0.044), systolic (-5.2 mm Hg, p=0.028) and diastolic blood pressure (-3.2 mm Hg, p=0.030) compared with controls. Based on observed weight change, estimated risk of developing diabetes reduced by 9.6% in the intervention and increased by 3.3% in control participants. Absolute 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduced significantly for intervention participants by 0.97 percentage points from 9.35% (10.4% relative risk reduction). In control participants, the risk increased by 0.11 percentage points (1.3% relative risk increase). The net effect for the change in CVD risk was -1.08 percentage points of absolute risk (p=0.013).

CONCLUSIONS: MDPS effectively reduced the risk of diabetes and CVD, but the intervention effect on weight and waist reduction was modest due to the challenges in recruiting high-risk individuals and the abbreviated intervention.

Falls and depression in men: a population-based study

The link between falls and depression has been researched in the elderly; however, little information is available on this association in younger adults, particularly men. This study sought to investigate the link between major depressive disorder (MDD) and falls in a population-based sample of 952 men (24-97 years). MDD was diagnosed utilizing the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Research Version, Non-Patient edition, and categorized as 12-month/past/never. Body mass index and gait were measured; falls, smoking status, psychotropic medication use, and alcohol intake were self-reported as part of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study 5-year follow-up assessment. Thirty-four (3.6%) men met criteria for 12-month MDD, and 110 (11.6%) for past MDD. Of the 952 men, 175 (18.4%) reported falling at least once during the past 12 months. Fallers were older (66 [interquartile range: 48-79] vs. 59 [45-72] years, p = .001) and more likely to have uneven gait (n = 16, 10% vs. n = 31, 4%, p = .003) than nonfallers. Participants with 12-month MDD had more than twice the odds of falling (age-adjusted odds ratio: 2.22, 95% confidence interval [1.03, 4.80]). The odds of falling were not associated with past depression (p = .4). Further adjustments for psychotropic drug use, gait, body mass index, smoking status, blood pressure, and alcohol did not explain these associations. Given the 2.2-fold greater likelihood of falling associated with depression was not explained by age or psychotropic drug use, further research is warranted.

Association between perception of fault for the crash and function, return to work and health status 1 year after road traffic injury: a registry-based cohort study

Objectives To establish the association between the patient's perception of fault for the crash and 12-month outcomes after non-fatal road traffic injury.Setting Two adult major trauma centres, one regional trauma centre and one metropolitan trauma centre in Victoria, Australia.Participants 2605 adult, orthopaedic trauma patients covered by the state's no-fault third party insurer for road traffic injury, injured between September 2010 and February 2014.Outcome measures EQ-5D-3L, return to work and functional recovery (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended score of upper good recovery) at 12 months postinjury.Results After adjusting for key confounders, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of a functional recovery (0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69) and return to work (0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99) were lower for the not at fault compared to the at fault group. The ARR of reporting problems on EQ-5D items was 1.20–1.35 times higher in the not at fault group. Conclusions Patients who were not at fault, or denied being at fault despite a police report of fault, experienced poorer outcomes than the at fault group. Attributing fault to others was associated with poorer outcomes. Interventions to improve coping, or to resolve negative feelings from the crash, could facilitate better outcomes in the future.

Empirical evidence of recall bias for primary health care visits

BACKGROUND: While it is common for an economic evaluation of health care to rely on trial participants for self-reported health service utilisation, there is variability in the accuracy of this data due to potential recall bias. The aim of this study was to quantify the level of recall bias in self-reported primary health care general practitioner (GP) visits following inpatient rehabilitation over a 12 month period.

METHODS: This report is a secondary analysis from a larger randomised control trial of an economic evaluation of additional Saturday inpatient rehabilitation. Participants were adults who had been discharged into the community following admission to an acute general rehabilitation hospital. Participants were asked to recall primary health care visits, including community GP visits, via a telephone questionnaire which was administered at 6 and 12 months following discharge from inpatient rehabilitation. Participants were asked to recall health service utilisation over each preceding 6 month period. The self-reported data were compared to equivalent claims data from the national insurer, over the same period.

RESULTS: 751 participants (75% of the full trial) with a mean age of 74 years (SD 13) were included in this analysis. Over the 12 month period following discharge from rehabilitation there was an under-reporting of 14% in self-reported health service utilisation for GP visits compared to national insurer claims data over the same period. From 0 to 6 months following discharge from rehabilitation, there was an over-reporting of self-reported GP visits of 35% and from 7 to 12 months there was an under-reporting of self-reported GP visits of 36%, compared to national insurer claims data over the same period. 46% of patients reported the same or one number difference in self-reported GP visits between the 0 to 6 and the 7 to 12 month periods.

CONCLUSION: Based on these findings we recommend that an economic evaluation alongside a clinical trial for an elderly adult rehabilitation population include a sensitivity analysis that inflates self-reported GP visits by 16% over 12 months. However caution is required when utilising self-reported GP visits as the data may contain periods of both over and under reporting. Where general practitioner visits are expected to vary significantly between intervention and control groups we recommend that administrative data be included in the trial to accurately capture resources for an economic evaluation.

Multicenter randomized controlled trial of a home walking intervention after outpatient cardiac rehabilitation on health-related quality of life in women

BACKGROUND: Poor health-related quality of life (HRQL) has been shown to be predictive of adverse outcomes in cardiac patients. As women with coronary heart disease have been shown to have lower HRQL than men with coronary heart disease, women are at greater risk of a poor clinical outcome. This study tested the effect of a 12-week home walking intervention after completion of outpatient cardiac rehabilitation (OCR) on HRQL and maintenance of physical activity among women. DESIGN: Multicenter two-group randomized trial. METHODS: After completion of OCR, participants were randomly allocated to the intervention or usual care groups. The outcomes were HRQL (assessed using the MacNew Heart Disease HRQL instrument) and self-reported physical activity (assessed using the Stages of Change model of exercise behavior) at 3, 6, and 12 months after OCR. RESULTS: Seventy-two women were randomized to the intervention and 81 to usual care. Attrition was greater in the treatment group (13 vs. 1%). HRQL scores increased relative to the base level in both arms and were significantly higher in the intervention group at 6 months, but not at 3 or 12 months. Maintenance of physical activity declined over time in both groups, however, this decline was significantly reduced among women in the intervention group. CONCLUSION: HRQL improved in both groups, but seemed to increase earlier among women in the intervention group. As maintenance of physical activity was higher among women in the intervention group, this minimal intervention could be used to facilitate women's progression from supervised to independent exercise.

Incidence and course of adolescent deliberate self-harm in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State

PURPOSE: There have been few longitudinal studies of deliberate self-harm (DSH) in adolescents. This cross-national longitudinal study outlines risk and protective factors for DSH incidence and persistence. METHODS: Seventh and ninth grade students (average ages 13 and 15 years) were recruited as state-representative cohorts, surveyed, and then followed up 12 months later (N = 3,876), using the same methods in Washington State and Victoria, Australia. The retention rate was 99% in both states at follow-up. A range of risk and protective factors for DSH were examined using multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The prevalence of DSH in the past year was 1.53% in Grade 7 and .91% in Grade 9 for males and 4.12% and 1.34% for Grade 7 and Grade 9 females, respectively, with similar rates across states. In multivariate analyses, incident DSH was lower in Washington State (odds ratio [OR] = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .45-1.00) relative to Victoria 12 months later. Risk factors for incident DSH included being female (OR = 1.93; CI = 1.35-2.76), high depressive symptoms (OR = 3.52; CI = 2.37-5.21), antisocial behavior (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.46-4.00), and lifetime (OR = 1.85; CI = 1.11-3.08) and past month (OR = 2.70; CI = 1.57-4.64) alcohol use relative to never using alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Much self-harm in adolescents resolves over the course of 12 months. Young people who self-harm have high rates of other health risk behaviors associated with family and peer risks that may all be targets for preventive intervention.

6-PACK programme to decrease fall injuries in acute hospitals: cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE:  To evaluate the effect of the 6-PACK programme on falls and fall injuries in acute wards. DESIGN:  Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING:  Six Australian hospitals. PARTICIPANTS:  All patients admitted to 24 acute wards during the trial period. INTERVENTIONS:  Participating wards were randomly assigned to receive either the nurse led 6-PACK programme or usual care over 12 months. The 6-PACK programme included a fall risk tool and individualised use of one or more of six interventions: "falls alert" sign, supervision of patients in the bathroom, ensuring patients' walking aids are within reach, a toileting regimen, use of a low-low bed, and use of a bed/chair alarm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:  The co-primary outcomes were falls and fall injuries per 1000 occupied bed days. RESULTS:  During the trial, 46 245 admissions to 16 medical and eight surgical wards occurred. As many people were admitted more than once, this represented 31 411 individual patients. Patients' characteristics and length of stay were similar for intervention and control wards. Use of 6-PACK programme components was higher on intervention wards than on control wards (incidence rate ratio 3.05, 95% confidence interval 2.14 to 4.34; P<0.001). In all, 1831 falls and 613 fall injuries occurred, and the rates of falls (incidence rate ratio 1.04, 0.78 to 1.37; P=0.796) and fall injuries (0.96, 0.72 to 1.27; P=0.766) were similar in intervention and control wards. CONCLUSIONS:  Positive changes in falls prevention practice occurred following the introduction of the 6-PACK programme. However, no difference was seen in falls or fall injuries between groups. High quality evidence showing the effectiveness of falls prevention interventions in acute wards remains absent. Novel solutions to the problem of in-hospital falls are urgently needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000332921.