A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Parasitoids select plants more heavily infested with their caterpillar hosts: a new approach to aid interpretation of plant headspace volatiles

Plants produce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in response to herbivore attack, and these VOCs can be used by parasitoids of the herbivore as host location cues. We investigated the behavioural responses of the parasitoid Cotesia vestalis to VOCs from a plant–herbivore complex consisting of cabbage plants (Brassica oleracea) and the parasitoids host caterpillar, Plutella xylostella. A Y-tube olfactometer was used to compare the parasitoids' responses to VOCs produced as a result of different levels of attack by the caterpillar and equivalent levels of mechanical damage. Headspace VOC production by these plant treatments was examined using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Cotesia vestalis were able to exploit quantitative and qualitative differences in volatile emissions, from the plant–herbivore complex, produced as a result of different numbers of herbivores feeding. Cotesia vestalis showed a preference for plants with more herbivores and herbivore damage, but did not distinguish between different levels of mechanical damage. Volatile profiles of plants with different levels of herbivores/herbivore damage could also be separated by canonical discriminant analyses. Analyses revealed a number of compounds whose emission increased significantly with herbivore load, and these VOCs may be particularly good indicators of herbivore number, as the parasitoid processes cues from its external environment

Enhancing the recovery of tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus) oil by mechanical pressing: moisture content, particle size, high pressure and enzymatic pre-treatment effects

Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus) tuber contains oil that is high in monounsaturated fatty acids, and this oil makes up about 23% of the tuber. The study aimed at evaluating the impact of several factors and enzymatic pre-treatment on the recovery of pressed tiger nut oil. Smaller particles were more favourable for pressing. High pressure pre-treatment did not increase oil recovery but enzymatic treatment did. The highest yield obtained by enzymatic treatment prior to mechanical extraction was 33 % on a dry defatted basis, which represents a recovery of 90 % of the oil. Tiger nut oil consists mainly of oleic acid; its acid and peroxide values reflect the high stability of the oil.

A thermoreversible supramolecular polyurethane with excellent healing ability at 45 °C

We report the synthesis and characterization of a healable, elastomeric shape recovery supramolecular polyurethane whose properties result from self-complementary π−π stacking and hydrogen bonding interactions plus phase separation. ESEM analysis and photographic images have revealed that this material can heal at 45 °C in 15 min to recover the mechanical properties of the pristine material with healing efficiencies >99%. This supramolecular polyurethane is also able to recover an applied strain of 25% within 5 min of release of the load.

Edible oil from Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus L.): mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction methods

The tiger nut tuber of the Cyperus esculentus L. plant is an unusual storage system with similar amounts of starch and lipid. The extraction of its oil employing both mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction (AEE) methods was investigated and an examination of the resulting products was carried out. The effects of particle size and moisture content of the tuber on the yield of tiger nut oil with pressing were initially studied. Smaller particles were found to enhance oil yields while a range of moisture content was observed to favour higher oil yields. When samples were first subjected to high pressures up to 700 MPa before pressing at 38 MPa there was no increase in the oil yields. Ground samples incubated with a mixture of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Viscozyme (a mixture of cell wall degrading enzyme) as a pre-treatment, increased oil yield by pressing and 90% of oil was recovered as a result. When aqueous enzymatic extraction was carried out on ground samples, the use of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Celluclast independently improved extraction oil yields compared to oil extraction without enzymes by 34.5, 23.4 and 14.7% respectively. A mixture of the three enzymes further augmented the oil yield and different operational factors were individually studied for their effects on the process. These include time, total mixed enzyme concentration, linear agitation speed, and solid-liquid ratio. The largest oil yields were obtained with a solid-liquid ratio of 1:6, mixed enzyme concentration of 1% (w/w) and 6 h incubation time although the longer time allowed for the formation of an emulsion. Using stationary samples during incubation surprisingly gave the highest oil yields, and this was observed to be as a result of gravity separation occurring during agitation. Furthermore, the use of high pressure processing up to 300 MPa as a pre-treatment enhanced oil yields but additional pressure increments had a detrimental effect. The quality of oils recovered from both mechanical and aqueous enzymatic extraction based on the percentage free fatty acid (% FFA) and peroxide values (PV) all reflected the good stabilities of the oils with the highest % FFA of 1.8 and PV of 1.7. The fatty acid profiles of all oils also remained unchanged. The level of tocopherols in oils were enhanced with both enzyme aided pressing (EAP) and high pressure processing before AEE. Analysis on the residual meals revealed DP 3 and DP 4 oligosaccharides present in EAP samples but these would require further assessment on their identity and quality.

Effect of repeated torque/mechanical loading cycles on two different abutment types in implants with internal tapered connections: an in vitro study

Internal tapered connections were developed to improve biomechanical properties and to reduce mechanical problems found in other implant connection systems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of mechanical loading and repeated insertion/removal cycles on the torque loss of abutments with internal tapered connections. Sixty-eight conical implants and 68 abutments of two types were used. They were divided into four groups: groups 1 and 3 received solid abutments, and groups 2 and 4 received two-piece abutments. In groups 1 and 2, abutments were simply installed and uninstalled; torque-in and torque-out values were measured. In groups 3 and 4, abutments were installed, mechanically loaded and uninstalled; torque-in and torque-out values were measured. Under mechanical loading, two-piece abutments were frictionally locked into the implant; thus, data of group 4 were catalogued under two subgroups (4a: torque-out value necessary to loosen the fixation screw; 4b: torque-out value necessary to remove the abutment from the implant). Ten insertion/removal cycles were performed for every implant/abutment assembly. Data were analyzed with a mixed linear model (P <= 0.05). Torque loss was higher in groups 4a and 2 (over 30% loss), followed by group 1 (10.5% loss), group 3 (5.4% loss) and group 4b (39% torque gain). All the results were significantly different. As the number of insertion/removal cycles increased, removal torques tended to be lower. It was concluded that mechanical loading increased removal torque of loaded abutments in comparison with unloaded abutments, and removal torque values tended to decrease as the number of insertion/removal cycles increased. To cite this article:Ricciardi Coppede A, de Mattos MdaGC, Rodrigues RCS, Ribeiro RF. Effect of repeated torque/mechanical loading cycles on two different abutment types in implants with internal tapered connections: an in vitro study.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 20, 2009; 624-632.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2008.01690.x.

Antimicrobial and mechanical properties of acrylic resins with incorporated silver-zinc zeolite - part I

Objective: The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of acrylic resins containing different percentages of silver and zinc zeolite, and to assess whether the addition of zeolite alters the flexural and impact strength of the resins. Background: The characteristics of acrylic resins support microorganism development that can threaten the health of the dentures user. Material and methods: A microwave-polymerised (Onda-Cryl) and two heat-polymerised (QC20 and Lucitone 550) acrylic resins were used. The materials were handled according to the manufacturers` instructions. Fifty rectangular-shaped specimens (8 x 10 x 4mm) were fabricated from each resin and assigned to 5 groups (n = 10) according to their percentage of Irgaguard B5000 silver-zinc zeolite (0%- control, 2.5%, 5.0%, 7.5% and 10%). Flexural strength and Izod impact strength were evaluated. The antimicrobial activity against two strains of Candida albicans and two strains of Streptococcus mutans was assessed by agar diffusion method. Data were analysed statistically by one-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test at 5% significance level. Results: The addition of 2.5% of Irgaguard B5000 to the materials resulted in antimicrobial activity against all strains. Flexural strength decreased significantly with the addition of 2.5% (QC20 and Lucitone 550) and 5.0% (Onda-Cryl) of Irgaguard B5000. The impact strength decreased significantly with the addition of 2.5% (Lucitone 550) and 5.0% (QC20 and Onda-Cryl) of zeolite. Conclusion: The addition of silver-zinc zeolite to acrylic resins yields antimicrobial activity, but may affect negatively the mechanical properties, depending on the percentage of zeolite.

Digital image correlation analysis of the load transfer by implant-supported restorations

This study compared splinted and non-splinted implant-supported prosthesis with and without a distal proximal contact using a digital image correlation method. An epoxy resin model was made with acrylic resin replicas of a mandibular first premolar and second molar and with threaded implants replacing the second premolar and first molar. Splinted and non-splinted metal-ceramic screw-retained crowns were fabricated and loaded with and without the presence of the second molar. A single-camera measuring system was used to record the in-plane deformation on the model surface at a frequency of 1.0 Hz under a load from 0 to 250 N. The images were then analyzed with specialist software to determine the direct (horizontal) and shear strains along the model. Not splinting the crowns resulted in higher stress transfer to the supporting implants when the second molar replica was absent. The presence of a second molar and an effective interproximal contact contributed to lower stress transfer to the supporting structures even for non-splinted restorations. Shear strains were higher in the region between the molars when the second molar was absent, regardless of splinting. The opposite was found for the region between the implants, which had higher shear strain values when the second molar was present. When an effective distal contact is absent, non-splinted implant-supported restorations introduce higher direct strains to the supporting structures under loading. Shear strains appear to be dependent also on the region within the model, with different regions showing different trends in strain changes in the absence of an effective distal contact. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of in vitro resistance of titanium and resorbable (poly-L-DL-lactic acid) fixation systems on the mandibular angle fracture

The purpose of this study was to compare, by mechanical in vitro testing, a 2.0-mm system made with poly-L-DL-lactide acid with an analogue titanium-based system. Mandible replicas were used as a substrate and uniformly sectioned on the left mandibular angle. The 4-hole plates were adapted and stabilized passively in the same site in both groups using four screws, 6.0 mm long. During the resistance-to-load test, the force was applied perpendicular to the occlusal plane at three different points: first molar at the plated side; first molar at the contralateral side; and between the central incisors. At 1 mm of displacement, no statistically significant difference was found. At 2 mm displacement, a statistically significant difference was observed when an unfavourable fracture was simulated and the load was applied in the contralateral first molar and when a favourable fracture was simulated and the load was applied between the central incisors. At the failure displacement, a statistically significant difference was observed only when the favourable fracture was simulated and the load was applied on the first molar at the plated side. In conclusion, despite more failure, the poly-L-DL-lactic acid-based system was effective.

DC traction load flow including AC distribution network

In the first part some information and characterisation about an AC distribution network that feeds traction substations and their possible influences on the DC traction load flow are presented. Those influences are investigated and mathematically modelled. To corroborate the mathematical model, an example is presented and their results are confronted with real measurements.

Effect of accelerated carbonation on cementitious roofing tiles reinforced with lignocellulosic fibre

The present work evaluated the effects of accelerated carbonation on mechanical and physical characteristics of cementitious roofing tiles reinforced with vegetable fibre. The maximum load and toughness of the tiles have increased approximately 25% and 80% respectively as a consequence of the accelerated carbonation. Water absorption and apparent porosity decreased with carbonation while bulk density increased as a clear indication of the densification of the composite. The improvement on the mechanical performance suggests that the fibres retained their tensile strength in the inorganic matrix. Results of specimens extracted from the tested tiles after approximately 480 days in laboratory environment and further aged indicate that soak and dry cycles promoted some leaching of hydration products and more voids and lower density when performed before carbonation. The results indicate the utilization of accelerated carbonation as an effective procedure to mitigate the degradation suffered by the cellulose fibres in the less aggressive medium. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA and the plasticizer concentration on the color, opacity, and thermal and mechanical properties of films based on PVA and gelatin blends

The objective of this work was to study the color, opacity, crystallinity, and the thermal and mechanical properties of films based on blends of gelatin and five different types of PVA [poly(vinyl alcohol)], with and without a plasticizer. The effect of the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA and the glycerol concentration on these properties was studied using colorimetry, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and tensile mechanical tests. All films were essentially colorless (Delta E* < 5) and with low opacity ( Y <= 2.1). The DSC results were typical of partially crystalline materials, showing some phase separation characterized by a glass transition (T(g) = 40-55 degrees C), related to the amorphous part of the material, followed by two endothermic peaks related to the melting (T(m) = 100-160 and 170-210 degrees C) of the crystallites. The XRD results confirmed the crystallinity of the films. The film produced with PVA Celvol((R)) 418 (DH = 91.8%) showed the highest tensile resistance (tensile strength = 38 MPa), for films without plasticizer. However, with glycerol, the above-mentioned PVA and the PVA Celvol((R)) 504 produced the least resistant films of all the PVA types. But, although the mechanical properties of the blended films depended on the type of PVA used, there was no direct relationship between these properties and the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA. The properties studied were more closely dependent on the glycerol concentration. Finally, the mechanical resistance of the films presented a linear relationship with the glass transition temperature of the films. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.