Factor five - Towards global sustainability through doing much more with much less

This is a revised text of the third lecture of the 2014 public lecture series, "The Path Toward a Global Civilzation" hosted by the Institute of Oriental Philosophy on October 2 in Tokyo. Dr Desha is a research principal of the Australian team at the Natural Edge Project which published Factor 5: Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Increase in Resource Productivity (2009) in collaboration with Dr Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker.

Problems and prospects in neurochemistry

The importance of neurochemistry in understanding the functional basis of the nervous system was emphasized. Attention was drawn to the role of lipids, particularly the sphingolipids,whose metabolic abnormalities lead to 'sphingolipidosis' In the brain and to gangliosides, which show growth-promoting and neuritogenic properties. Several questions that remain to be answered in this area were enumerated. It was pointed out that neurons make a large number of proteins, an order of magnitude higher than other cells, and several of these are yet to be characterized and their functional significance established. Myelination and synapto-genesis are two fundamental processes in brain development. Although much is known about myelin lipids and proteins, it is not known what signals the glial cell receives to initiate myelin synthesis around the axon, In fact, the process of myelination provides an excellent system for studying membrane biogenesis and cell-sell interaction. Great strides were made in the understanding of neurotransmitter receptors and their function in synaptic transmission, but how neurons make synapses with other specific neurons in a preprogrammed manner is not known and requires immediate study. In this context, it was stressed that developmental neurobiology of the human brain could be most profitably done in India. The importance and complexity of signal transduction mechanisms in the brain was explained and many fundamental questions that remain to be answered were discussed. In conclusion, several other areas of contemporary research interest in the nervous system were mentioned and it was suggested that a 'National Committee for Brain Research' be constituted to identify and intensify research programmes in this vital field.

The alpha method for solving differential algebraic inequality (DAI) systems

This paper describes an algorithm for ``direct numerical integration'' of the initial value Differential-Algebraic Inequalities (DAI) in a time stepping fashion using a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) method solver for detecting and satisfying active path constraints at each time step. The activation of a path constraint generally increases the condition number of the active discretized differential algebraic equation's (DAE) Jacobian and this difficulty is addressed by a regularization property of the alpha method. The algorithm is locally stable when index 1 and index 2 active path constraints and bounds are active. Subject to available regularization it is seen to be stable for active index 3 active path constraints in the numerical examples. For the high index active path constraints, the algorithm uses a user-selectable parameter to perturb the smaller singular values of the Jacobian with a view to reducing the condition number so that the simulation can proceed. The algorithm can be used as a relatively cheaper estimation tool for trajectory and control planning and in the context of model predictive control solutions. It can also be used to generate initial guess values of optimization variables used as input to inequality path constrained dynamic optimization problems. The method is illustrated with examples from space vehicle trajectory and robot path planning.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Multi-channel curve crossing problems: analytically solvable model

We have proposed a general method for finding the exact analytical solution for the multi-channel curve crossing problem in the presence of delta function couplings. We have analysed the case where aa potential energy curve couples to a continuum (in energy) of the potential energy curves.

Shortcomings of discontinuous-pressure finite element methods on a class of transient problems

Past studies that have compared LBB stable discontinuous- and continuous-pressure finite element formulations on a variety of problems have concluded that both methods yield Solutions of comparable accuracy, and that the choice of interpolation is dictated by which of the two is more efficient. In this work, we show that using discontinuous-pressure interpolations can yield inaccurate solutions at large times on a class of transient problems, while the continuous-pressure formulation yields solutions that are in good agreement with the analytical Solution.

Children and adolescents in full-time special education : an epidemiological and magnetic resonance imaging study

The need for special education (SE) is increasing. The majority of those whose problems are due to neurodevelopmental disorders have no specific aetiology. The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution of prenatal and perinatal factors and factors associated with growth and development to later need for full-time SE and to assess joint structural and volumetric brain alterations among subjects with unexplained, familial need for SE. A random sample of 900 subjects in full-time SE allocated into three levels of neurodevelopmental problems and 301 controls in mainstream education (ME) provided data on socioeconomic factors, pregnancy, delivery, growth, and development. Of those, 119 subjects belonging to a sibling-pair in full-time SE with unexplained aetiology and 43 controls in ME underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Analyses of structural brain alterations and midsagittal area and diameter measurements were made. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis provided detailed information on regional grey matter, white matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume differences. Father’s age ≥ 40 years, low birth weight, male sex, and lower socio-economic status all increased the probability of SE placement. At age 1 year, one standard deviation score decrease in height raised the probability of SE placement by 40% and in head circumference by 28%. At infancy, the gross motor milestones differentiated the children. From age 18 months, the fine motor milestones and those related to speech and social skills became more important. Brain MRI revealed no specific aetiology for subjects in SE. However, they had more often ≥ 3 abnormal findings in MRIs (thin corpus callosum and enlarged cerebral and cerebellar CSF spaces). In VBM, subjects in full-time SE had smaller global white matter, CSF, and total brain volumes than controls. Compared with controls, subjects with intellectual disabilities had regional volume alterations (greater grey matter volumes in the anterior cingulate cortex bilaterally, smaller grey matter volume in left thalamus and left cerebellar hemisphere, greater white matter volume in the left fronto-parietal region, and smaller white matter volumes bilaterally in the posterior limbs of the internal capsules). In conclusion, the epidemiological studies emphasized several factors that increased the probability of SE placement, useful as a framework for interventional studies. The global and regional brain MRI findings provide an interesting basis for future investigations of learning-related brain structures in young subjects with cognitive impairments or intellectual disabilities of unexplained, familial aetiology.

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.

Accurate Parameter Estimation of Contaminant Transport Inverse Problem using Particle Swarm Optimization

Swarm Intelligence techniques such as particle swarm optimization (PSO) are shown to be incompetent for an accurate estimation of global solutions in several engineering applications. This problem is more severe in case of inverse optimization problems where fitness calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, a novel strategy is introduced to alleviate this problem. The proposed inverse model based on modified particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied for a contaminant transport inverse model. The inverse models based on standard-PSO and proposed-PSO are validated to estimate the accuracy of the models. The proposed model is shown to be out performing the standard one in terms of accuracy in parameter estimation. The preliminary results obtained using the proposed model is presented in this work.

Agents Based Algorithms for Design Parameter Estimation in Contaminant Transport Inverse Problems

A considerable amount of work has been dedicated on the development of analytical solutions for flow of chemical contaminants through soils. Most of the analytical solutions for complex transport problems are closed-form series solutions. The convergence of these solutions depends on the eigen values obtained from a corresponding transcendental equation. Thus, the difficulty in obtaining exact solutions from analytical models encourages the use of numerical solutions for the parameter estimation even though, the later models are computationally expensive. In this paper a combination of two swarm intelligence based algorithms are used for accurate estimation of design transport parameters from the closed-form analytical solutions. Estimation of eigen values from a transcendental equation is treated as a multimodal discontinuous function optimization problem. The eigen values are estimated using an algorithm derived based on glowworm swarm strategy. Parameter estimation of the inverse problem is handled using standard PSO algorithm. Integration of these two algorithms enables an accurate estimation of design parameters using closed-form analytical solutions. The present solver is applied to a real world inverse problem in environmental engineering. The inverse model based on swarm intelligence techniques is validated and the accuracy in parameter estimation is shown. The proposed solver quickly estimates the design parameters with a great precision.

Knowledge unlatched : A global library consortium model for funding Open Access scholarly books

Specialist scholarly books, including monographs, allow researchers to present their work, pose questions and to test and extend areas of theory through long-form writing. In spite of the fact that research communities all over the world value monographs and depend heavily on them as a requirement of tenure and promotion in many disciplines, sales of this kind of book are in free fall, with some estimates suggesting declines of as much as 90% over twenty years (Willinsky 2006). Cashstrapped monograph publishers have found themselves caught in a negative cycle of increasing prices and falling sales, with few resources left to support experimentation, business model innovation or engagement with digital technology and Open Access (OA). This chapter considers an important attempt to tackle failing markets for scholarly monographs, and to enable the wider adoption of OA licenses for book-length works: the 2012 – 2014 Knowledge Unlatched pilot. Knowledge Unlatched is a bold attempt to reconfigure the market for specialist scholarly books: moving it beyond the sale of ‘content’ towards a model that supports the services valued by scholarly and wider communities in the context of digital possibility. Its success has powerful implications for the way we understand copyright’s role in the creative industries, and the potential for established institutions and infrastructure to support the open and networked dynamics of a digital age.

Women's health and a framework convention on global health

This paper considers the role for a Framework Convention on Global Health in addressing key challenges in women’s health at a global level. Part I analyses the conceptualization of health in terms of human rights and the linking of women’s rights and human rights. Part II seeks to identify pressing issues for women’s health, articulating 10 key challenges for women’s health. Part III considers the proposal for a Framework Convention on Global Health to meet global health needs. Finally, Part IV asks whether international law can provide a valuable platform to support recognition and achievement of women’s health rights and identifies key elements for supporting and promoting women’s health.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Linear time algorithms for Abelian group isomorphism and related problems

We consider the problem of determining if two finite groups are isomorphic. The groups are assumed to be represented by their multiplication tables. We present an O(n) algorithm that determines if two Abelian groups with n elements each are isomorphic. This improves upon the previous upper bound of O(n log n) [Narayan Vikas, An O(n) algorithm for Abelian p-group isomorphism and an O(n log n) algorithm for Abelian group isomorphism, J. Comput. System Sci. 53 (1996) 1-9] known for this problem. We solve a more general problem of computing the orders of all the elements of any group (not necessarily Abelian) of size n in O(n) time. Our algorithm for isomorphism testing of Abelian groups follows from this result. We use the property that our order finding algorithm works for any group to design a simple O(n) algorithm for testing whether a group of size n, described by its multiplication table, is nilpotent. We also give an O(n) algorithm for determining if a group of size n, described by its multiplication table, is Abelian. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclosures of social value creation and managing legitimacy: A case study of three global social enterprises

This study seeks to fill the gap in the existing literature by examining at how and whether disclosure of social value creation becomes a part of legitimation strategies of social enterprises. By using Suchman’s (1995) moral dimension of legitimacy theory this study sets out that three global social organizations, Grameen Bank, Charity Water, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, disclose social value creation as if they conform to expectations of the broader community. The study finds that there is an apparent disconnection between disclosure and actions by social enterprises. With references to few incidents highlighted in this study, social enterprises, use disclosures as their managerial efforts, rather than creating moral legitimacy. The notion of apparent disconnection between disclosure and real action by the case social enterprises is common with the notion of the motivation behind disclosure practices by corporations as captured in extant disclosure literature. The finding suggest that when an organisation (whether it is a corporation or a social enterprise) face legitimacy crisis, it appears to disclose good news than bad news questioning organizational moral legitimacy.