Volatility transmissions between stock and bond markets : evidence from Japan and the U.S.

This study attempts to investigate the transmission of market-wide volatility between the equity markets and bond markets of Japan and the U.S. To measure the volatility transmission, the BEKK (Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner, 1990) method, a decomposition approach of the multivariate GARCH (1,1) model, is used to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. The time series analysis provides evidence to the long-run phenomena of causality in conditional variances of paired assets within the local and international markets. Within various pairings, some evidence of bi-directional volatility transmissions such as informational linkages have been observed. Our empirical results suggest that within the domestic cross markets, the volatility transmission is unidirectional from the stock market to the bond market. Evidence from international cross-market analysis is mixed, with strong evidence on volatility spillover among these international stock markets, but weak evidence between international stock and bond markets. In addition, there are significant directional volatility transmissions between DJI index and FTSE100 index, and between DJI index and DAX200 index. The volatility transmission between these two markets indicates that the international diversification of bonds is not prevalent.

Can the choice of interpolation method explain the difference between swap prices and futures prices?

The standard model linking the swap rate to the rates in a contemporaneous strip of futures interest rate contracts typically produces biased estimates of the swap rate. Institutional differences usually require some form of interpolation to be employed and may in principle explain this empirical result. Using Australian data, we find evidence consistent with this explanation and show that model performance is greatly improved if an alternative interpolation method is used. In doing so, we also provide the first published Australian evidence on the accuracy of the futures-based approach to pricing interest rate swaps.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets : evidence from US and Australia

This paper investigates the cross-market informational dependence between these assets under disparate interest rate conditions of the U.S and Australia. With conditional variance as a proxy for volatility, we use the BEKK – a matricular decomposition of the bivariate GARCH (1,1) model to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Applying the model to the stock and bond indices of both countries, we find evidence of volatility spillover, thereby supporting the notion of informational dependence between each market

Modeling volatility and changes in the swap spread

We investigate the determinants of changes in U.S. interest rate swap spreads using a model that explicitly allows for volatility interactions between swaps of different terms to maturity. Changes in the swap spread are found to be positively related to interest rate volatility, to changes in the default risk premium in the corporate bond market, and to changes in the liquidity premium for government securities. Swap spread changes are negatively related to changes in the level of interest rates and changes in the slope of the term structure. We also find that there is a strong and significant volatility interaction among spreads for swaps of different maturities and that the process for the conditional variance of the spread is highly persistent across all maturities.

Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life (SHELf): protocol of a randomised controlled trial promoting healthy food and beverage consumption through price reduction and skill-building strategies

Background: In the context of rising food prices, there is a need for evidence on the most effective approaches for promoting healthy eating. Individually-targeted behavioural interventions for increasing food-related skills show promise, but are unlikely to be effective in the absence of structural supports. Fiscal policies have been advocated as a means of promoting healthy eating and reducing obesity and nutrition-related disease, but there is little empirical evidence of their effectiveness. This paper describes the Supermarket Healthy Eating for LiFe (SHELf) study, a randomised controlled trial to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a tailored skill-building intervention and a price reduction intervention, separately and in combination, against a control condition for promoting purchase and consumption of healthy foods and beverages in women from high and low socioeconomic groups.
Methods/design: SHELf comprises a randomised controlled trial design, with participants randomised to receive either (1) a skill-building intervention; (2) price reductions on fruits, vegetables and low-joule soft drink beverages and water; (3) a combination of skill-building and price reductions; or (4) a control condition. Five hundred women from high and low socioeconomic areas will be recruited through a store loyalty card program and local media. Randomisation will occur on receipt of informed consent and baseline questionnaire. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective using a cost-consequences approach will compare the costs and outcomes between intervention and control groups.
Discussion: This study will build on a pivotal partnership with a major national supermarket chain and the Heart Foundation to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies aimed at increasing women’s purchasing and consumption of fruits and vegetables and decreased purchasing and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. It will be among the first internationally to examine the effects of two promising approaches - skill-building and price reductions - on diet amongst women.

Exploring Australian housing supply volatility

This study examines the volatility series of housing supply in Australia. A Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model is employed to analyse the volatility series of Australian housing supply over the study period of 1974-2010. The results show the volatility of housing starts is negatively linked to housing starts, suggesting that higher uncertainty does lower housing starts. The results also reveal that the uncertainty of housing starts is also captured by the volatilities of interest rates and construction costs. Therefore policy makers should monitor and attempt to minimise the volatility of housing supply. These steps will enhance housing construction activities and increase the availability of housing supply to potential home buyers.

Implied volatility smiles, option mispricing and net buying pressure : evidence around the global financial crisis

Using the recent global financial crisis as an exogenous setting, we examine the presence and source of implied volatility smile phenomena in Australian S&P ASX 200 index options. We find a pronounced implied volatility smile for index puts in both bull and bear markets and a smile for index calls in the bear but not bull market. Implied volatilities of out-of-the money puts tend to be upwards biased whilst those of calls tend to be downwards biased. We also find that the bias in implied volatilities yields excess returns based on unhedged and delta-neutral trading strategies, suggesting that implied volatilities are related to option mispricing. Net buying pressure from market participants appears to be a source of mispricing in the case of out-of-the-money index puts with excess demand particularly pronounced during the bull period before the global financial crisis unfolded.

Associations between mothers’ perceptions of the cost of fruit and vegetables and children’s diets : Will children pay the price?

Background/Objectives:
Perceptions that fruit and vegetables are expensive are more common among the socio-economically disadvantaged groups and are linked to poor dietary outcomes. Such perceptions may be exacerbated in countries recently affected by natural disasters, where devastation of fruit and vegetable crops has resulted in increase in prices of fruit and vegetables. Examining the associations of perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability and children's diets can offer insights into how the high prices of fruit and vegetables might have an impact on the diets of children.
Subjects/Methods:
We analysed the data from 546 socio-economically disadvantaged mother–child pairs to assess the relationship between maternal perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability and the diets of their children.
Results:
Fruit consumption was lower among children whose mothers felt the cost of fruit was too high. Maternal perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability were not associated with any other aspect of child's diet.
Conclusions:
Our results suggest a possible role for maternal perceptions of fruit affordability in children's diet, though further research is warranted.

On the welfare gains of price dispersion

Can price dispersion be associated with higher levels of welfare? To answer we compare two economies that differ only in the way prices are formed. In the first, sellers post a unique price–quantity pair, with no price dispersion. In the second, sellers post a quantity only and let prices be determined ex post by realized demand, resulting in price dispersion. We show that while agents trade lower quantities when prices are dispersed (an intensive margin effect), they also trade more often (an extensive margin effect). At low inflation, the extensive margin dominates making agents better off with price dispersion.

The volume and volatility relation in the Australian stock market

The thesis studies the volume-volatility relation in the Australian Securities Market. It is concluded that the number of trades is the most important variable driving realized volatility. The average trade size is significant but its explanatory power is only trivial. Order imbalance does not drive volatility in the Australian market.