954 resultados para forecast errors


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Filipe et al. (2001) proposed an anaerobic metabolic model for glycogen-accumulating organisms (GAO) in which the succinate-propionate pathway was used to describe the production of propionyl-CoA. However, propionyl-CoA is only an intermediate product in the above pathway. Stopping at propionyl-CoA instead of propionate (the end product of the pathway) results in the consumption of one ATP from succinate to succinyl-CoA, which was not accounted for in the model of Filipe et al. (2001). This resulted in significant errors in the stoichiometric coefficients in the final metabolic model. A modified model is presented in this communication and is shown to fit the experimental data significantly better than the original model. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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An acceleration compensated transducer was developed to enable the direct measurement of skin friction in hypervelocity impulse facilities. The gauge incorporated a measurement and acceleration element that employed direct shear of a piezoelectric ceramic. The design integrated techniques to maximize rise time and shear response while minimizing the affects of acceleration, pressure, heat transfer, and electrical interference. The arrangement resulted in a transducer natural frequency near 40 kHz. The transducer was calibrated for shear and acceleration in separate bench tests and was calibrated for pressure within an impulse facility. Uncertainty analyses identified only small experimental errors in the shear and acceleration calibration techniques. Although significant errors were revealed in the method of pressure calibration, total skin-friction measurement errors as low as +/-7-12% were established. The transducer was successfully utilized in a shock tunnel, and sample measurements are presented for flow conditions that simulate a flight Mach number near 8.

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The choice of genotyping families vs unrelated individuals is a critical factor in any large-scale linkage disequilibrium (LD) study. The use of unrelated individuals for such studies is promising, but in contrast to family designs, unrelated samples do not facilitate detection of genotyping errors, which have been shown to be of great importance for LD and linkage studies and may be even more important in genotyping collaborations across laboratories. Here we employ some of the most commonly-used analysis methods to examine the relative accuracy of haplotype estimation using families vs unrelateds in the presence of genotyping error. The results suggest that even slight amounts of genotyping error can significantly decrease haplotype frequency and reconstruction accuracy, that the ability to detect such errors in large families is essential when the number/complexity of haplotypes is high (low LD/common alleles). In contrast, in situations of low haplotype complexity (high LD and/or many rare alleles) unrelated individuals offer such a high degree of accuracy that there is little reason for less efficient family designs. Moreover, parent-child trios, which comprise the most popular family design and the most efficient in terms of the number of founder chromosomes per genotype but which contain little information for error detection, offer little or no gain over unrelated samples in nearly all cases, and thus do not seem a useful sampling compromise between unrelated individuals and large families. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of large-scale LD mapping projects such as the proposed genome-wide haplotype map.

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Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

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This study compared an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) technique for measurement of tacrolimus concentrations in adult kidney and liver transplant recipients, and investigated how assay choice influenced pharmacokinetic parameter estimates and drug dosage decisions. Tacrolimus concentrations measured by both ELISA and LC/MS/MS from 29 kidney (n = 98 samples) and 27 liver (n = 97 samples) transplant recipients were used to evaluate the performance of these methods in the clinical setting. Tacrolimus concentrations measured by the two techniques were compared via regression analysis. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed independently using ELISA and LC/MS/MS data from 76 kidney recipients. Derived kinetic parameters were used to formulate typical dosing regimens for concentration targeting. Dosage recommendations for the two assays were compared. The relation between LC/MS/MS and ELISA measurements was best described by the regression equation ELISA = 1.02 . (LC/MS/MS) + 0.14 in kidney recipients, and ELISA = 1.12 . (LC/MS/MS) - 0.87 in liver recipients. ELISA displayed less accuracy than LC/MS/MS at lower tacrolimus concentrations. Population pharmacokinetic models based on ELISA and LC/MS/MS data were similar with residual random errors of 4.1 ng/mL and 3.7 ng/mL, respectively. Assay choice gave rise to dosage prediction differences ranging from 0% to 30%. ELISA measurements of tacrolimus are not automatically interchangeable with LC/MS/MS values. Assay differences were greatest in adult liver recipients, probably reflecting periods of liver dysfunction and impaired biliary secretion of metabolites. While the majority of data collected in this study suggested assay differences in adult kidney recipients were minimal, findings of ELISA dosage underpredictions of up to 25% in the long term must be investigated further.

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A sample of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was derived from a bi-parental cross between Lemont and BK88-BR6, which contrasted in maintenance of leaf water potential (LWP) and expression of osmotic adjustment (OA). Genotypic variation for LWP and OA, and their associations with yield determination under water deficit, was studied in a series of five field experiments. Genotypic variation in the maintenance of high LWP was consistent across water deficit experiments. In the determination of genotypic variation in the maintenance of LWP, rate of water deficit was not an important factor influencing ranking, but degree of water deficit, and phenological development stage were important, particularly around heading. Genotypic variation in expression of OA was also observed under water deficits during both vegetative and flowering stages but ranking was inconsistent across experiments. This was in part because of large experimental errors associated with its measurement, but also because the expression of OA was associated with extent of decline of LWP. The relationship between OA and LWP was demonstrated when data were combined across experiments for vegetative and flowering stages. Under water-limited conditions around flowering, grain yield reduction was mainly due to a increased spikelet sterility. Variation in OA was not related to grain yield nor yield components. There were however, negative phenotypic and genetic correlations between LWP and percentage spikelet sterility measured at flowering stage on panicles at the same development stage during a water deficit treatment. This suggests that traits contributing to the maintenance of high LWP minimized the effects of water deficit on spikelet sterility and consequently grain yield. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Previous studies on tidal water table dynamics in unconfined coastal aquifers have focused on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction based on the assumption of a straight coastline. Here, two-dimensional analytical solutions are derived to study the effects of rhythmic coastlines on tidal water table fluctuations. The computational results demonstrate that the alongshore variations of the coastline can affect the water table behavior significantly, especially in areas near the centers of the headland and embayment. With the coastline shape effects ignored, traditional analytical solutions may lead to large errors in predicting coastal water table fluctuations or in estimating the aquifer's properties based on these signals. The conditions under which the coastline shape needs to be considered are derived from the new analytical solution.

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Expression of membrane-bound Fas ligand (FasL) by colorectal cancer cells may allow the development of an immune-privileged site by eliminating incoming tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in a Fas-mediated counter-attack. Sporadic colorectal cancer can be subdivided into three groups based on the level of DNA microsatellite instability (NISI). High-level NISI (NISI-High) is characterized by the presence of TILs and a favourable prognosis, while microsatellite-stable (MSS) cancers are TIL-deficient and low-level MSI (MSI-Low) is associated with an intermediate TIL density. The purpose of this study was to establish the relationship between MSI status and FasL expression in primary colorectal adenocarcinoma. Using immunohistochemistry and a selected series of 101 cancers previously classified as 31 MSI-High, 30 NISI-Low, and 40 MISS, the present study sought to confirm the hypothesis that increased TIL density in MSI-High cancers is associated with low or absent membrane-bound FasL expression, while increased FasL in MSS cancers allows the killing of host TILs. TUNEL/CD3 double staining was also used to determine whether MSS cancers contain higher numbers of apoptotic TILs in vivo than MSI-High or MSI-Low cancers. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, it was found that MSI-High cancers were associated with higher FasL expression (p = 0.04) and a stronger intensity of FasL staining (p = 0.007). In addition, mucinous carcinomas were independently characterized by increased FasL expression (p = 0.03) and staining intensity (p = 0.0005). Higher FasL expression and staining intensity did not correlate with reduced TIL density or increased numbers of apoptotic TILs. However, consistent with the hypothesis that curtailment of the host anti-tumour immune response contributes to the poor prognosis in MSS cancers, it was found that apoptotic TILs were most abundant in MSS carcinomas and metastatic Dukes' stage C or D tumours (p = 0.004; p = 0.046 respectively). This study therefore suggests that MSS colorectal cancers are killing incoming TILs in an effective tumour counter-attack, but apparently not via membrane-bound FasL. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.