Securitización en el desierto: Una respuesta al terrorismo en Malí y en Níger, 2009 - 2013.

Este es un estudio sobre las dinámicas de seguridad en Malí durante el periodo de 2009 a 2013. La investigación busca explicar de qué manera se ha dado un proceso de securitización de los grupos insurgentes frente a la amenaza generada por la proliferación de grupos armados no estatales en el territorio comprendido entre Malí y Níger. Se toma a Níger con el ánimo de ver la existencia de un subcomplejo regional de seguridad entre este país y Malí. De esta manera se afirma que el aumento de las actividades insurgentes y terroristas en la zona compuesta por Malí y Níger se da por la proliferación de actores armados no estatales, entre los cuales se encuentran los grupos seculares e insurgentes Tuareg, las agrupaciones islamistas fundamentalistas y los grupos que se componen entre rebeldes Tuareg, criminales e islamistas, éstos actores han afectado la percepción que tiene Malí sobre su seguridad.

Nova Talenta: 2014-2015

Contenido Introducción 1. Inteligencia emocional, liderazgo transformacional y género: factores que influencian el desempeño organizacional / Ana María Galindo Londoño, Sara Urrego Mayorga; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa Méndez. 2. El rol de la mujer en el liderazgo / Andrea Patricia Cuestas Díaz; Directora: Francoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 3. Liderazgo transformacional, clima organizacional, satisfacción laboral y desempeño. Una revisión de la literatura / Juliana Restrepo Orozco, Ángela Marcela Ochoa Rodríguez; Directora: Françoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 4. “E-Leadership” una perspectiva al mundo de las compañías globalizadas / Ángela Beatriz Morales Morales, Mónica Natalia Aguilera Velandia; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 5. Liderazgo y cultura. Una revisión / Daniel Alejandro Romero Galindo; Directora: Francoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 6. La investigación sobre la naturaleza del trabajo directivo: una revisión de la literatura / Julián Felipe Rodríguez Rivera, María Isabel Álvarez Rodríguez; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 7. La mujer en la alta dirección en el contexto colombiano / Ana María Moreno, Juliana Moreno Jaramillo ; Directora: Françoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 8. Influencia de la personalidad en el discurso y liderazgo de George W. Bush después del 11 de septiembre de 2011 / Karen Eliana Mesa Torres; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 9. La investigación sobre el campo del followership: una revisión de la literatura / Christian D. Báez Millán, Leidy J. Pinzón Porras; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 10. El liderazgo desde la perspectiva del poder y la influencia. Una revisión de la literatura / Lina María García, Juan Sebastián Naranjo; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 11. El trabajo directivo para líderes y gerentes: una visión integradora de los roles organizacionales / Lina Marcela Escobar Campos, Daniel Mora Barrero; Director: Rafael Piñeros. 12. Participación emocional en la toma de decisiones / Lina Rocío Poveda C., Gloria Johanna Rueda L.; Directora: Francoise Contreras T. 13. Estrés y su relación con el liderazgo / María Camila García Sierra, Diana Paola Rocha Cárdenas; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 14. “Burnout y engagement” / María Paola Jaramillo Barrios, Natalia Rojas Mancipe; Director: Rafael Piñeros.

Eficacia de la estimulación magnética transcraneal en la disminución de severidad en el trastorno depresivo mayor en monoterapia y coadyuvante comparado con tratamientos farmacológicos. Revisión sistemática y meta-análisis

Resumen Introducción Una posible opción de tratamiento para el manejo del trastorno depresivo mayor (TDM) es la estimulación magnética transcraneal (EMT) que ha mostrado propiedades antidepresivas superiores al placebo con un buen perfil de seguridad. El objetivo del presente trabajo es determinar la reducción en la severidad del TDM y la proporción de eventos adversos (EA) en pacientes con TDM refractario y no refractario, posterior al uso de EMT administrada en monoterapia o tratamiento coadyuvante comparado con terapia farmacológica. Metodología Se planteó una pregunta PICOT de la cual se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de estudios clínicos en las bases de datos Medline, EMBASE y Cochrane. Dos investigadores en forma independiente realizaron la selección de artículos, evaluación de calidad con la herramienta de la colaboración Cochrane y extracción de datos. Se extrajeron datos de eficacia como tasa de respuesta, porcentaje de remisión, calidad de vida, diminución sintomática del trastorno depresivo mayor en la escala de Hamilton y capacidad funcional. Igualmente, proporción de pacientes con EA. Se realizó un meta-análisis de estas variables teniendo en cuenta la heterogeneidad. Resultados La presente revisión sistemática incluyó 26 estudios clínicos aleatorizados de baja calidad metodológica mostrando que la EMT presentó una eficacia superior cuando es usada como coadyuvante a las terapias con que venían siendo tratados los pacientes con TDM refractario y no refractario en los desenlaces de tasa de respuesta y porcentaje de remisión. En el caso de intervenciones farmacológicas específicas, la EMT presento eficacia similar, tanto en terapia coadyuvante como en monoterapia comparado con las intervenciones farmacológicas. En cuanto a seguridad, la EMT presenta un buen perfil de seguridad debido a que en todos los escenarios estudiados los EA fueron no serios y baja frecuencia Conclusiones La evidencia disponible sugiere que la EMT mostró ser efectivo y seguro para el manejo del TDM refractario y no refractario. Sin embargo, la evidencia es débil por lo tanto se necesita mayor investigación clínica que soporte su uso.

Impacto do excesso de peso sobre a fisiologia normal da pele humana in vivo

A obesidade é um problema de saúde pública com prevalência crescente, nomeadamente em Portugal, onde mais de 50% da população é obesa. As consequências fisiopatológicas do peso excessivo têm grande impacto a nível cutâneo. Contudo, existem ainda poucos estudos sobre a fisiologia cutânea, não existindo qualquer estratificação destas alterações em função do peso corporal. O presente estudo pretende contribuir para o estudo das alterações ao nível da hidratação e comportamento biomecânico com o aumento de peso. Este estudo transversal foi efetuado numa amostra de conveniência de 57 voluntárias, do sexo feminino, com idades compreendidas entre os 20 e os 46 (30±8) anos. As voluntárias foram divididas em dois grupos - Grupo I, com IMC entre 19,9 e 24,9 Kg/m2 e Grupo II, entre 25 e 29,9 Kg/m2. Foi efetuada uma única determinação da hidratação superficial, perda transepidérmica de água e comportamento biomecânico da pele (métodos não-invasivos). Os dados obtidos permitem-nos verificar que o aumento de peso influencia positivamente os níveis de hidratação e perda transepidérmica de água e de forma negativa o comportamento biomecânico da pele. Apesar do interesse destes resultados torna-se necessário realizar mais estudos, com maior número de indivíduos, de forma a melhor esclarecer a sua natureza e significado.

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Estimating discharge from inundation imagery

Remote sensing from space-borne platforms is often seen as an appealing method of monitoring components of the hydrological cycle, including river discharge, due to its spatial coverage. However, data from these platforms is often less than ideal because the geophysical properties of interest are rarely measured directly and the measurements that are taken can be subject to significant errors. This study assimilated water levels derived from a TerraSAR-X synthetic aperture radar image and digital aerial photography with simulations from a two dimensional hydraulic model to estimate discharge, inundation extent, depths and velocities at the confluence of the rivers Severn and Avon, UK. An ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate spot heights water levels derived by intersecting shorelines from the imagery with a digital elevation model. Discharge was estimated from the ensemble of simulations using state augmentation and then compared with gauge data. Assimilating the real data reduced the error between analyzed mean water levels and levels from three gauging stations to less than 0.3 m, which is less than typically found in post event water marks data from the field at these scales. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows where gauge data are unavailable or of poor quality. Posterior estimates of discharge had standard deviations between 63.3 m3s-1 and 52.7 m3s-1, which were below 15% of the gauged flows along the reach. Therefore, assuming a roughness uncertainty of 0.03-0.05 and no model structural errors discharge could be estimated by the EnKF with accuracy similar to that arguably expected from gauging stations during flood events. Quality control prior to assimilation, where measurements were rejected for being in areas of high topographic slope or close to tall vegetation and trees, was found to be essential. The study demonstrates the potential, but also the significant limitations of currently available imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un-gauged or poorly gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework.

An old problem revisited - and solved: Upton and Dalton's linear production response: A note

This note presents a robust method for estimating response surfaces that consist of linear response regimes and a linear plateau. The linear response-and-plateau model has fascinated production scientists since von Liebig (1855) and, as Upton and Dalton indicated, some years ago in this Journal, the response-and-plateau model seems to fit the data in many empirical studies. The estimation algorithm evolves from Bayesian implementation of a switching-regression (finite mixtures) model and demonstrates routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation-techniques that are now in widespread application in other disciplines.

Long chain n-3 PUFA-rich meal reduced postprandial measures of arterial stiffness

Background & aims The consumption of long chain n − 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n − 3 PUFA) is known to be cardio-protective. Data on the influence of LC n − 3 PUFA on arterial stiffness in the postprandial state is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the acute effects of a LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal on measures of arterial stiffness. Methods Twenty-five healthy subjects (12 men, 13 women) received a control and a LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal on two occasions in a random order. Arterial stiffness was measured at baseline, 30, 60, 90, 120, 180 and 240 min after meal consumption by pulse wave analysis and digital volume pulse to derive an augmentation index and a stiffness index respectively. Blood samples were taken for measurement of lipids, glucose and insulin. Results Consumption of the LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal had an attenuating effect on augmentation index (P = 0.02) and stiffness index (P = 0.03) compared with the control meal. A significant treatment effect (P = 0.036) was seen for plasma non-esterified fatty acids concentrations. Conclusions These data indicate that acute LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal consumption can improve postprandial arterial stiffness. This has important implications for the beneficial properties of LC n − 3 PUFA and cardiovascular risk reduction.

A virtual headstick for people with spinal cord injuries

This paper presents a virtual headstick system as an alternative to the conventional passive headstick for persons with limited upper extremity function. The system is composed of a pair of kinematically dissimilar master-slave robots with the master robot being operated by the user's head. At the remote site, the end-effector of the slave robot moves as if it were at the tip of an imaginary headstick attached to the user's head. A unique feature of this system is that through force-reflection, the virtual headstick provides the user with proprioceptive information as in a conventional headstick, but with an augmentation of workspace volume and additional mechanical power. This paper describes the test-bed development, system identification, bilateral control implementation, and system performance evaluation.

Head-controlled assistive telerobot with extended physiological proprioception capability

People with disabilities such as quadriplegia can use mouth-sticks and head-sticks as extension devices to perform desired manipulations. These extensions provide extended proprioception which allows users to directly feel forces and other perceptual cues such as texture present at the tip of the mouth-stick. Such devices are effective for two principle reasons: because of their close contact with the user's tactile and proprioceptive sensing abilities; and because they tend to be lightweight and very stiff, and can thus convey tactile and kinesthetic information with high-bandwidth. Unfortunately, traditional mouth-sticks and head-sticks are limited in workspace and in the mechanical power that can be transferred because of user mobility and strength limitations. We describe an alternative implementation of the head-stick device using the idea of a virtual head-stick: a head-controlled bilateral force-reflecting telerobot. In this system the end-effector of the slave robot moves as if it were at the tip of an imaginary extension of the user's head. The design goal is for the system is to have the same intuitive operation and extended proprioception as a regular mouth-stick effector but with augmentation of workspace volume and mechanical power. The input is through a specially modified six DOF master robot (a PerForceTM hand-controller) whose joints can be back-driven to apply forces at the user's head. The manipulation tasks in the environment are performed by a six degree-of-freedom slave robot (the Zebra-ZEROTM) with a built-in force sensor. We describe the prototype hardware/software implementation of the system, control system design, safety/disability issues, and initial evaluation tasks.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly prospective study

Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

Is fatty acid intake a predictor of arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study

Background and aims: Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality and may be differentially affected by dietary fatty acid (FA) intake. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between FA consumption and arterial stiffness and blood pressure in a community-based population. Methods and results: The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2398 men, aged 45-59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 17.8-years (n 787). A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire estimated intakes of total, saturated, mono- and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (SFA, MUFA, PUFA). Multiple regression models investigated associations between intakes of FA at baseline with aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), augmentation index (AIx), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and pulse pressure after a 17.8-year follow-up - as well as cross-sectional relationships with metabolic markers. After adjustment, higher SFA consumption at baseline was associated with higher SBP (P = 0.043) and DBP (P = 0.002) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.51 m/s higher aPWV (P = 0.006). After adjustment, higher PUFA consumption at baseline was associated with lower SBP (P = 0.022) and DBP (P = 0.036) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.63 m/s lower aPWV (P = 0.007). Conclusion: This study suggests that consumption of SFA and PUFA have opposing effects on arterial stiffness and blood pressure. Importantly, this study suggests that consumption of FA is an important risk factor for arterial stiffness and CVD.

Crossbred cow adoption and milk market participation in a multivariate count data framework

Cross-bred cow adoption is an important and potent policy variable precipitating subsistence household entry into emerging milk markets. This paper focuses on the problem of designing policies that encourage and sustain milkmarket expansion among a sample of subsistence households in the Ethiopian highlands. In this context it is desirable to measure households’ ‘proximity’ to market in terms of the level of deficiency of essential inputs. This problem is compounded by four factors. One is the existence of cross-bred cow numbers (count data) as an important, endogenous decision by the household; second is the lack of a multivariate generalization of the Poisson regression model; third is the censored nature of the milk sales data (sales from non-participating households are, essentially, censored at zero); and fourth is an important simultaneity that exists between the decision to adopt a cross-bred cow, the decision about how much milk to produce, the decision about how much milk to consume and the decision to market that milk which is produced but not consumed internally by the household. Routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation overcome these problems in a relatively straightforward manner. We model the count data from two sites close to Addis Ababa in a latent, categorical-variable setting with known bin boundaries. The single-equation model is then extended to a multivariate system that accommodates the covariance between crossbred-cow adoption, milk-output, and milk-sales equations. The latent-variable procedure proves tractable in extension to the multivariate setting and provides important information for policy formation in emerging-market settings