Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Long duration response to levodopa in advanced Parkinson's disease patients treated with subthalamic deep brain stimulation

Résumé La levodopa (LD) est le traitement antiparkinsonien le plus efficace et le plus répandu. Son effet est composé d'une réponse de courte (quelques heures) et de longue durée (jours à semaines). La persistance de cette dernière dans les phases avancées de la maladie de Parkinson est controversée, et sa mesure directe n'a jamais été faite en raison des risques liés à un sevrage complet de LD. La stimulation du noyau sous-thalamique est un nouveau traitement neurochirurgical de la maladie de Parkinson, indiqué dans les formes avancées, qui permet l'arrêt complet du traitement médicamenteux chez certains patients. Nous avons étudié 30 patients qui ont bénéficié d'une telle stimulation, et les avons évalués avant l'intervention sans médicaments, et à 6 mois postopératoires, sans médicaments et sans stimulation. Chez 19 patients, la médication a pu être complètement arrêtée, alors qu'elle a dû être réintroduite chez les 11 patients restants. Au cours des 6 mois qui ont suivi l'intervention, le parkinsonisme s'est aggravé de façon significative dans le groupe sans LD, et non dans le groupe avec LD. Cette différence d'évolution s'explique par la perte de l'effet à long terme de la LD dans le groupe chez qui ce médicament a pu être arrêté. En comparant cette aggravation à la magnitude de l'effet à court terme, la réponse de longue durée correspond environ à 80 pourcent de la réponse de courte durée, et elle lui est inversement corrélée. Parmi les signes cardinaux de la maladie, la réponse de longue durée affecte surtout la bradycinésie et la rigidité, mais pas le tremblement ni la composante axiale. La comparaison du parkinsonisme avec traitement (stimulation et LD si applicable) ne montre aucune différence d'évolution entre les 2 groupes, suggérant que la stimulation compense tant la réponse de courte que de longue durée. Notre travail montre que la réponse de longue durée à la LD demeure significative chez les patients parkinsoniens après plus de 15 ans d'évolution, et suggère que la stimulation du noyau sous-thalamique compense les réponses de courte et de longue durée. Abstract Background: Long duration response to levodopa is supposed to decrease with Parkinson's disease (PD) progression, but direct observation of this response in advanced PD has never been performed. Objective: To study the long duration response to levodopa in advanced PD patients treated with subthalamic deep-brain stimulation. Design and settings: We studied 30 consecutive PD patients who underwent subthalamic deep-brain stimulation. One group had no antiparkinsonian treatment since surgery (no levodopa), while medical treatment had to be reinitiated in the other group (levodopa). Main outcome measures: motor Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Results: In comparison with preoperative assessment, evaluation six months postoperatively with stimulation turned off for three hours found a worsening of the motor part of UPDRS in the no-levodopa group. This worsening being absent in the levodopa group, it most probably reflected the loss of the long duration response to levodopa in the no-levodopa group. Stimulation turned on, postoperative motor UPDRS in both groups were similar to preoperative on medication scores, suggesting that subthalamic deep-brain stimulation compensated for both the short and long duration responses to levodopa. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the long duration response to levodopa remains significant even in advanced PD, and that subthalamic deep-brain stimulation compensates for both the short and the long duration resposes to levodopa.

Consolidation whole abdomen irradiation following adjuvant carboplatin-paclitaxel based chemotherapy for advanced uterine epithelial cancer: feasibility, toxicity and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate feasibility and preliminary outcomes associated with sequential whole abdomen irradiation (WAI) as consolidative treatment following comprehensive surgery and systemic chemotherapy for advanced endometrial cancer. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated at our institution from 2000 to 2011. Inclusion criteria were stage III-IV endometrial cancer patients with histological proof of one or more sites of extra-uterine abdomen-confined disease, treated with WAI as part of multimodal therapy. Endpoints were feasibility, acute toxicity, late effects, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Twenty patients were identified. Chemotherapy consisted of 3 to 6 cycles of a platinum-paclitaxel regimen in 18 patients. WAI was delivered using conventional technique to a median total dose of 27.5 Gy. RESULTS: No grade 4 toxicities occurred during chemotherapy or radiotherapy. No radiation dose reduction was necessary. Three patients developed small bowel obstruction, all in the context of recurrent intraperitoneal disease. Kaplan-Meier estimates and 95% confidence intervals for RFS and OS at one year were 63% (38-80%) and 83% (56-94%) and at 3 years 57% (33-76%) and 62% (34-81%), respectively. On univariate Cox analysis, stage IVB and serous papillary (SP) histology were found to be statistically significantly (at the p = 0.05 level) associated with worse RFS and OS. The peritoneal cavity was the most frequent site of initial failure. CONCLUSIONS: Consolidative WAI following chemotherapy is feasible and can be performed without interruption with manageable acute and late toxicity. Patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, especially stage FIGO III, had favorable outcomes possibly meriting prospective evaluation of the addition of WAI following chemotherapy in selected patients. Patients with SP do poorly and do not routinely benefit from this approach.

Can resistance to trastuzumab be reversed by endocrine therapy? Combination of trastuzumab and letrozole after resistance to sequential trastuzumab and aromatase inhibitor monotherapies in patients with ER-positive, HER-2 positive, advanced breast cancer: a proof-of-concept trial (SAKK 23/03)

Introduction: Trastuzumab (T) is a cornerstone in the treatment of patients with HER2-overexpressing advanced breast cancer and development of resistance to T is a major therapeutic problem. HER-2 is part of a highly interactive signaling network that may impair efficacy of endocrine therapy. A sequential treatment design was chosen in this trial to ensure complete resistance to single agent therapy before receiving both a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor (AI) and T. Any kind of clinical activity with combined treatment of AI and T after progression of single agent treatments could indicate restoration of sensitivity as a consequence of cross-talking and networking between both pathways. Methods: Key eligibility criteria included postmenopausal patients (pts.) with advanced, measurable, HER-2 positive (assessed by FISH, ratio (≥2)), HR positive disease and progression on prior treatment with a non-steroidal AI, e.g. letrozole or anastrozole, either in an adjuvant or advanced setting. Pts. received standard dose T monotherapy either weekly or three-weekly in step 1 and upon disease progression, continued T in combination with letrozole in step 2. The primary endpoint was clinical benefit response (CBR: CR, PR or SD for at least 24 weeks (+/- 1 week) according to RECIST) in step 2. Results: Thirteen pts. were enrolled in five centers in Switzerland. In step 1, six pts. (46%) achieved CBR. Median time to progression (TTP) was 161 days (Range: 50 - 627). Based on data collected until the end of May 2010, CBR was observed in seven out of the eleven evaluable pts. (64%) in step 2, including one pt. with partial response. Four of the seven pts. within step 2 that achieved CBR also had CBR in step 1. Seven out of eleven pts. have documented tumor progression during step 2 treatment. Median TTP for all eleven pts. was 184 days (range 61 - 471). Mean time on study treatment (TTP in step 1 plus TTP in step 2) for pts. reaching step 2 was 380 days (range 174 - 864). Adverse events were generally mild. Conclusion: Results of this proof-of-principle trial suggest that complete resistance to both AI and T can be overcome in a proportion of pts. by combined treatment of AI and T, as all pts. served as their own control. Our results appear promising for a new treatment strategy which offers a chemotherapy-free and well-tolerated option for at least a subset of the pts. with HR positive, HER-2 positive breast cancer. Further trials will need to corroborate this finding.

The Application of 3D Reconstruction Techniques in the Analysis of Ancient Tarraco’s Urban Topography

The widespread implementation of GIS-based 3D topographical models has been a great aid in the development and testing of archaeological hypotheses. In this paper, a topographical reconstruction of the ancient city of Tarraco, the Roman capital of the Tarraconensis province, is presented. This model is based on topographical data obtained through archaeological excavations, old photographic documentation, georeferenced archive maps depicting the pre-modern city topography, modern detailed topographical maps and differential GPS measurements. The addition of the Roman urban architectural features to the model offers the possibility to test hypotheses concerning the ideological background manifested in the city shape. This is accomplished mainly through the use of 3D views from the main city accesses. These techniques ultimately demonstrate the ‘theatre-shaped’ layout of the city (to quote Vitrubius) as well as its southwest oriented architecture, whose monumental character was conceived to present a striking aspect to visitors, particularly those arriving from the sea.

Troubleshooting in extracorporeal life support.

Since the first clinical use of extracorporeal circulation in the last century [1] by John Gibbon and the first successful mechanical support of the left ventricular function by Forest Dodrill [2], the progress of techniques and technologies has helped to develop minimised systems for extracorporeal circulatory and respiratory support. However, the fact is that, despite the advanced technologies used for extracorporeal support, successful application in order to be benefit a critically ill population requires highly trained and skilled teams. Application of these highly sophisticated techniques in life-saving situations inside and/or outside the operating room is a procedure with certain pitfalls and dangers. The aim of this review is to provide a short overview of the technical aspects of extracorporeal circulation, with a look at the recent literature and clinical experiences focusing on technical as well surgical considerations regarding the urgent and/or emergent usage of a central as well as peripheral extracorporeal system.

Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

DFM(A)-Aspects of an Advanced Cable Gland Design

Nowadays typical motor junction boxes do not incorporate cable glands, which would provide good electrical performance interms of electromagnetic compatibility. In this paper, a manufacturability and assembly analysis for the new construction of a rigid body feeder cable junction of an electric motor is presented especially for converter drives (practical tests were carried out at LUT during 2007). Although the cable junction should also clamp the cable to provide enough tensile strength, the phase conductors should not get squashed by the groundingconnection. In order to ensure good performance in an electrical mean especially in converter drives, the grounding of the cable should be connected 360 degrees around the cable. In this paper, following manufacturing technologies are discussed: traditional turning, precision and centrifugal casting, and rotation moulding. DFM(A)-aspects are presented in detail.

Investigation phytochimique d'une brosse à dents africaine Zanthoxylum zanthoxyloides (Lam.) Zepernick et Timler (Syn. Fagara zanthoxiloides L.) (Rutaceae)

Résumé: Dans le but de rechercher de nouveaux composés naturels à intérêt thérapeutique, les extraits dichlorométhanique et méthanolique de Zanthoxylum zanthoxyloides (Lam.) Zepernick et Timler (Syn. Fagara zanthoxyloides L.) (Rutaceae), une brosse à dents africaine ont été soumis à un criblage chimique et biologique. Un dépistage des activités: antifongiques contre le champignon phytopathogène Cladosporium cucumerinum et la levure commensale responsable de mycoses chez l'homme Candida albicans, antibactérienne contre la bactérie opportuniste Bacillus subtilis, larvicide contre le moustique vecteur de la fièvre jaune Aedes aegypti et molluscicide contre Biomphalaria glabrata, un escargot impliqué dans la transmission de la schistosomiase urinaire a été réalisé. Les propriétés antiradicalaires et inhibitrices de l'acétylcholinestérase de ces extraits ont aussi été dépistées. Sur la base des résultats obtenus lors de ce screening, l'investigation phytochimique de ces extraits a été entreprise. Elle a abouti à l'isolement de 14 composés, actifs pour la majorité contre Cladosporium cucumerinum et Bacillus subtilis, dont la structure a été établie au moyen de méthodes spectroscopiques (UV, MS, IR, 1H- et 13C-NMR). Des méthodes chimiques (hydrolyse, acétylation) ont été requises pour la confirmation de structures. L'extrait dichlorométhanique a fourni un nouveau composé, un dérivé du phényléthane, ainsi que dix composés connus, dont trois dérivés du phénylpropane, un lignane, un alcaloïde de la famille des benzophénanthridines, un triterpène, deux amides phénoliques et deux amides oléfmiques. L'extrait méthanolique a fourni un nouveau composé avec une fonction endoperoxyde, qui avait montré une activité inhibitrice modérée de l'acétylcholinestérase, ainsi que l'hespéridine et un dérivé de la chélérythrine. Par ailleurs, l'analyse LC/UV/APC1-MS de cet extrait a permis de détecter on-une sept produits connus. Parmi ces composés, se trouvent l'acide divanilloylquinique, la chélérythrine et quatre de ses dérivés: norchélérythrin.e, 6-(2-oxybutyl) dihydrochélérythrine, 6-hydroxy-dihydrochélérythrine et avicine, ainsi qu'une amide phénolique, l'amottianamide. La présence de ces dérivés de la chélérythrine a été mise en évidence dans deux autres espèces du même genre lors d'une étude LC/UV/APCI-MS comparative. Les activités fongicides contre Cladosporium cucumerinum et Candida albicans et bactéricides contre Bacillus subtilis et Streptococcus mutans ATCC 25175, mises en évidence sur plaque CCM et par les tests de dilution dans l'agar de ces composés, permettent de justifier l'utilisation de Zanthoxylum zanthoxyloides (Lam.) Zepemick et Timler comme brosse à dents africaine. Les techniques couplées de pointe utilisées dans cette étude ont montré leur apport inestimable dans le domaine de la recherche phytochimique et les applications futures dans le domaine de déréplication d'extraits bruts. Abstract: With the aim of discovering new natural therapeutics, the dichloromethane and methanol extracts of the African toothbrush tree Zanthoxylum zanthoxyloides (Lam.) Zepernick et Timler (Syn. Fagara zanthoxyloides L.) (Rutaceae), were submitted to biological and chemical assays. The former included: the antifimgal activities of the extracts against the phytopathogenic fungus Cladosporium cucumerinum, the commensal yeast which causes human mycoses Candida albicans, the bactericidal activity against the opportunistic bacteria Bacillus subtilis, the larvicidal activity against the yellow fever-transmitting mosquito Aedes aegypti and the molluscicidal effect on the snail Biomphalaria glabrata involved in the transmission of urinary schistosomiasis. The antiradical and acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting properties of these extracts were also investigated. On the basis of these results, a phytochemical investigation of the dichloromethane and methanol extracts of Zanthoxylum zanthoxyloides was undertaken. Their fractionation led to the isolation of 14 compounds, the majority of which were active against Cladosporium cucumerinum and Bacillus subtilis, whose structures were elucidated by spectroscopic techniques (UV, MS, IR, 1H- and 13C-NMR). Chemical methods (hydrolysis, acetylation) were performed to confirm the structures. The dichloromethane extract yielded a new phenylethane derivative, together with ten known compounds: three phenylpropane derivatives, a lignan, a benzophenanthridine alkaloid, a triterpene and four phenolic and olefinic amides. The methanol extract yielded a new compound with an endoperoxide moiety, which showed moderate acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting activity, together with hesperidin and a chelerythrine derivative. Seven more compounds were detected on-line by LC/UV/APCI-MS. Among the compounds detected were divanilloylquinic acid, chelerythrine and four chelerythrine derivatives: norchelerythrine, 6-(2-oxybuty1)-dihydrochelerythrine, 6-hydroxy dihydrochelerythrine and avicine, together with the phenolic amide amottianamide. Most of the chelerythrine derivatives were also found in two other Zanthoxylum species following LC/UV/APCI-MS analysis. The antifungal activities against Cladosporium cucumerinum and Candida albicans and antibacterial activities against Bacillus subtilis and Streptococcus mutans ATCC 25175, may explain the utilization in traditional medicine of the roots of this plant as a toothbrush. The advanced hyphenated techniques used in this study showed their inestimable contribution to the field of phytochemical research and applications in the field of dereplication of crude extracts.

Contribution à la connaissance du métabolisme secondaire des Thymelaeaceae et investigation phytochimique de l'une d'elles: "Gnidia involucrata" Steud. ex A. Rich

Dans le but de mieux connaître le métabolisme secondaire de la famille des Thymelaeaceae et de découvrir de nouveaux composés naturels à intérêt thérapeutique, 30 extraits provenant de 8 espèces africaines ont été soumis à un criblage chimique et biologique. Les cibles biologiques suivantes ont servi à l?évaluation de l?activité des extraits étudiés : la moisissure phytopathogène Cladosporium cucumerinum, la levure commensale Candida albicans, la bactérie opportuniste Bacillus subtilis, la larve du moustique vecteur de la fièvre jaune Aedes aegypti et l?hôte intermédiaire mollusque de la schistosomiase urinaire Biomphalaria glabrata. Les propriétés antiradicalaires et inhibitrices de l?acétylcholinestérase de ces extraits ont également été dépistées. Des analyses sur CCM avec révélation chimique, ainsi que des expériences LC/DAD-UV, ont permis demettre en évidence la présence de tanins, de flavonoïdes et de xanthones dans les extraits polaires. Sur la base des résultats de ces analyses préliminaires, l?investigation phytochimique des extraits méthanoliques des racines et des parties aériennes de Gnidia involucrata a été entreprise. Cette démarche a permis l?isolement de 8 composés naturels et leur caractérisation complète au moyen de méthodes spectroscopiques (UV, MS, CD, 1H- et 13C-NMR). Les activités de ces produits purs ont été évaluées et il est apparu qu?ils possédaient presque tous des propriétés antiradicalaires intéressantes, supérieures à celles du BHT, un antioxydant de synthèse (E 321) utilisé dans l?industrie alimentaire. Deux benzophénones simples, respectivement O- et C-glucosylées, ont été isolées des parties aériennes de G. involucrata au côté de la mangiférine, une C-glycosylxanthone ubiquitaire. Ces découvertes sont remarquables à plusieurs titres : (1) les benzophénones simples (nonprénylées) sont très rares dans la nature ; (2) c?est la première fois qu?une Oglycosylbenzophénone a été décrite ; (3) aucune xanthone n?avait été mise en évidence auparavant dans la famille et (4) les benzophénones semblent ne pas être que des produits intermédiaires dans la biosynthèse des xanthones. Trois 3,8??-biflavanones du type GB ont été isolées des racines et des parties aériennes de la même plante, dont deux stéréoisomères se trouvant en mélange. Une analyse LC/CD a permis d?attribuer les configurations absolues des quatre carbones asymétriques de chaque molécule. Cette classe de métabolites secondaires est réputée pour ses propriétés analgésiques et sa présence chez les Thymelaeaceae est prometteuse. Des techniques couplées de pointe ont été utilisées dans ce travail et ont montré leur apport inestimable dans le domaine de la recherche phytochimique. Une analyse LC/ MSn a ainsi permis de mettre en évidence on-line trois C-glycosylflavones ? l?isoorientine, l?isovitexine et la vitexine ? dans les extraits méthanoliques bruts de G. involucrata. De plus, les parties aériennes de cette même plante ont servi de matériel pour le développement d?une nouvelle méthode d?analyse d?extraits bruts : la LC/1H-NMR time-slice. Cette approche consiste à « découper » le temps d?analyse par des interruptions régulières du flux LC, durant lesquelles les données NMR nécessaires sont acquises. Le problème de la faible sensibilité relative de la LC/NMR a été partiellement résolu par ce biais et a permis d?envisager l?utilisation de la NMR au sein de systèmes de couplages multiples en série avec d?autres méthodes spectrales (UV, MS, IR, CD,?).<br/><br/>With the aim of acquiring a better knowledge of the secondary metabolism of the family Thymelaeaceae and of the discovering of new natural therapeutics, 30 extracts from 8 African plant species were submitted to chemical and biological screening. The following biological targets were used to estimate the activity of the extracts under study: the phytopathogenic fungus Cladosporium cucumerinum, the commensal yeast Candida albicans, the opportunistic bacteria Bacillus subtilis, larvae of the yellow fever-transmitting mosquito Aedes aegypti and the intermediate snail host of urinary schistosomiasis Biomphalaria glabrata. The antiradical and acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting properties of these extracts were also investigated. TLC analyses followed by chemical detection, together with LC/DAD-UV experiments, showed the presence of tannins, flavonoids and xanthones in the polar extracts. On the basis of these results, a phytochemical investigation of the methanol extracts of the roots and the aerial parts of Gnidia involucrata was undertaken. This procedure led to the isolation of 8 natural products, which were then characterised by spectroscopic means (UV, MS, CD, 1H- and 13C-NMR). The activities of the pure compounds were then further evaluated: almost all of them exhibited very interesting antiradical properties, superior to those of BHT, a synthetic antioxidant (E 321) used in the food industry. Two simple benzophenones, one O- and one C-glycosylated, were isolated from the aerial parts of G. involucrata, together with mangiferin, a ubiquitous C-glycosylxanthone. These findings are of multiple importance: (1) simple (non-prenylated) benzophenones are very rare in nature; (2) it is the first time that an O-glycosylbenzophenone has been described; (3) no xanthones have been previously reported in the family and (4) benzophenones do not seem to be exclusive intermediates in the biosynthesis of xanthones. Three 3,8??-biflavanones of the GB type were isolated from the roots and the aerial parts of the same plant, among them two stereoisomers in mixture. A LC/CD analysis allowed the assignment of the absolute configurations of all four stereocenters in both molecules. This class of secondary metabolite is well known for its analgesic properties and its presence in the Thymelaeaceae is very promising. Advanced hyphenated techniques were used in this work and showed their inestimable contribution to the field of phytochemical research. A LC/MSn analysis, for example, allowed the on-line characterisation of three C-glycosylflavones ? isoorientin, isovitexin and vitexin ? in the crude methanol extracts of G. involucrata. Furthermore, the aerial parts of this plant were used as material for the development of a new analytical method for crude plant extracts: time-slice LC/1H-NMR. This approach consisted in "slicing" the analytical procedure by interrupting the LC flow at given intervals, during which the necessary NMR data were acquired. The relative lack of sensitivity of LC/NMR was partially surmounted by this means, allowing one to envisage the use of NMR in a multiple hyphenated system, together with other spectroscopic methods (UV, MS, IR, CD,?)

Techniques de gastrostomie chez l'enfant et expérience lausannoise avec le bouton de gastrostomie à ballonnet (Mic-Key)

Résumé : Ce travail comprend deux parties : La première partie a pour but de présenter une revue des techniques de gastrostomie chez l'enfant. La gastrostomie est, par définition, un tractus fistuleux entre l'estomac et la paroi abdominale. Le but de la gastrostomie est de permettre la décompression gastrique, la nutrition entérale et l'apport médicamenteux. Les indications et contre-indications à la confection et utilisation de la gastrostomie sont détaillées dans ce travail. Historiquement, les premières gastrostomies étaient d'origine accidentelle ou infectieuse (fistule gastro-cutanée), incompatibles avec la vie. Sedillot, en 1845 décrivit la première gastrostomie chirurgicale sans cathéter, qui avait comme désavantage la présence de fuites. Depuis, les techniques se sont multipliées en évoluant vers la continence et l'utilisation de cathéters. En 1979 Gauderer décrivit pour la première fois une technique percutanée, réalisée sur un enfant âgé de 5 mois. Cette technique est appelée « Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy » (PEG). Elle a ensuite été élargie à la population adulte. Actuellement, il existe une grande multiplicité de techniques par abord « laparotomique », laparoscopique ou percutanée (endoscopique ou radiologique). Ces techniques peuvent être combinées. Toutes ces techniques nécessitent la présence intermittente ou continue d'un dispositif, qui permet le maintient de la gastrostomie ouverte et évite les fuites gastriques. Ces dispositifs sont multiples; initialement il s'agissait de cathéters rigides (bois, métal, caoutchouc). Ensuite ils ont été fabriqués en silicone, ce qui les rend plus souples et mieux tolérés par le patient. Pour éviter leur dislocation, ils possèdent un système d'amarrage intra-gastrique tel que : un champignon (Bard®), un ballonnet (Foley®, Mic-Key®), ou une forme spiralée du cathéter (« pig-tail ») et possèdent un système d'amarrage extra-gastrique (« cross-bar »). En 1982, Gauderer créa le premier dispositif à fleur de peau : le bouton de gastrostomie (BG). Actuellement, il en existe deux types : à champignon (Bard®) et à ballonnet (Mic-Key®). Il existe plusieurs types de complications liées à la technique opératoire, à la prise en charge et au matériel utilisé. Une comparaison des différentes techniques, matériaux utilisés et coûts engendrés est détaillée dans ce travail. La deuxième partie de ce travail est dédiée aux BG et plus spécifiquement au BG à ballonnet (Mic-Key®). Nous présentons les différents boutons et les techniques spécifiques. Le BG est inséré soit dans une gastrostomie préformée, soit directement lors de la confection d'une gastrostomie par laparotomie, laparoscopie ou de façon percutanée. Les complications liées au BG sont rapportées. D'autres utilisations digestives ou urologiques sont décrites. Nous présentons ensuite notre expérience avec 513 BG à ballonnet (Mic-Key®) dans une revue de 73 enfants. La pose du BG est effectuée dans une gastrostomie préformée sans recours à une anesthésie générale. La technique choisie pour la confection de la gastrostomie dépend de la pathologie de base, de l'état général du patient, de la nécessité d'une opération concomitante et du risque anesthésique. Nous apportons des précisions sur le BG telles que la dimension en fonction de l'âge, la durée de vie, et les causes qui ont amené au changement du BG. Nos résultats sont comparés à ceux de la littérature. Sur la base de notre expérience et après avoir passé en revue la littérature spécialisée, nous proposons des recommandations sur le choix de la technique et le choix du matériel. Ce travail se termine avec une réflexion sur le devenir de la gastrostomie. Si le futur consiste à améliorer et innover les techniques et les matériaux, des protocoles destinés à la standardisation des techniques, à la sélection des patients et à l'enseignement des soins devraient s'en suivre. La prise en charge de l'enfant ne se limite pas à la sélection appropriée de la technique et des matériaux, mais il s'agit avant tout d'une approche multidisciplinaire. La collaboration entre le personnel soignant, la famille et l'enfant est essentielle pour que la prise en charge soit optimale et sans risques.

Studies on integrating kinematic design method with mechanical systems simulation techniques

Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.