An evaluation of genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual appearance for assessing dingo purity: implications for dingo conservation

The introgression of domestic dog genes into dingo populations threatens the genetic integrity of 'pure' dingoes. However, dingo conservation efforts are hampered by difficulties in distinguishing between dingoes and hybrids in the field. This study evaluates consistency in the status of hybridisation (i.e. dingo, hybrid or dog) assigned by genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual assessments. Of the 56 south-east Queensland animals sampled, 39 (69.6%) were assigned the same status by all three methods, 10 (17.9%) by genetic and skull methods, four (7.1%) by genetic and visual methods; and two (3.6%) by skull and visual methods. Pair-wise comparisons identified a significant relationship between genetic and skull methods, but not between either of these and visual methods. Results from surveying 13 experienced wild dog managers showed that hybrids were more easily identified by visual characters than were dingoes. A more reliable visual assessment can be developed through determining the relationship between (1) genetics and phenotype by sampling wild dog populations and (2) the expression of visual characteristics from different proportions and breeds of domestic dog genes by breeding trials. Culling obvious hybrids based on visual characteristics, such as sable and patchy coat colours, should slow the process of hybridisation.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Modelling environmental effects on phenology and canopy development of diverse sorghum genotypes

The ability to predict phenology and canopy development is critical in crop models used for simulating likely consequences of alternative crop management and cultivar choice strategies. Here we quantify and contrast the temperature and photoperiod responses for phenology and canopy development of a diverse range of elite Indian and Australian sorghum genotypes (hybrid and landrace). Detailed field experiments were undertaken in Australia and India using a range of genotypes, sowing dates, and photoperiod extension treatments. Measurements of timing of developmental stages and leaf appearance were taken. The generality of photo-thermal approaches to modelling phenological and canopy development was tested. Environmental and genotypic effects on rate of progression from emergence to floral initiation (E-FI) were explained well using a multiplicative model, which combined the intrinsic development rate (Ropt), with responses to temperature and photoperiod. Differences in Ropt and extent of the photoperiod response explained most genotypic effects. Average leaf initiation rate (LIR), leaf appearance rate and duration of the phase from anthesis to physiological maturity differed among genotypes. The association of total leaf number (TLN) with photoperiod found for all genotypes could not be fully explained by effects on development and LIRs. While a putative effect of photoperiod on LIR would explain the observations, other possible confounding factors, such as air-soil temperature differential and the nature of model structure were considered and discussed. This study found a generally robust predictive capacity of photo-thermal development models across diverse ranges of both genotypes and environments. Hence, they remain the most appropriate models for simulation analysis of genotype-by-management scenarios in environments varying broadly in temperature and photoperiod.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

A theory of process modelling affordances

This thesis studies how conceptual process models - that is, graphical documentations of an organisation's business processes - can enable and constrain the actions of their users. The results from case study and experiment indicate that model design decisions and people's characteristics influence how these opportunities for action are perceived and acted upon in practice.

"Like a monkey with a miniature cymbal": Cultural practices of repetition in visual social media

Looping media are recurring components of online content, from gifs to Vine videos, in addition to the conceptual repetition of memes and related practices. This paper analyses practices around looping visual media as examples of vernacular creativity, social media literacies, and internet culture, especially for irreverent and playful purposes. Focusing on the LGBTQ digital cultural context as a pilot study, this research examines multi-platform uses of looping media, including personal narratives through Vine videos and animated gifs on Tumblr. In addition to textual analysis of LGBTQ looping visual social media content, the study will further explore the platform context as part of the experience of looped media. The research will address how these factors may also contribute to practices of irreverence and play, both within the specific case of LGBTQ culture and internet culture more generally.

Dynamics of contour, object and face processing in the human visual cortex

The neural basis of visual perception can be understood only when the sequence of cortical activity underlying successful recognition is known. The early steps in this processing chain, from retina to the primary visual cortex, are highly local, and the perception of more complex shapes requires integration of the local information. In Study I of this thesis, the progression from local to global visual analysis was assessed by recording cortical magnetoencephalographic (MEG) responses to arrays of elements that either did or did not form global contours. The results demonstrated two spatially and temporally distinct stages of processing: The first, emerging 70 ms after stimulus onset around the calcarine sulcus, was sensitive to local features only, whereas the second, starting at 130 ms across the occipital and posterior parietal cortices, reflected the global configuration. To explore the links between cortical activity and visual recognition, Studies II III presented subjects with recognition tasks of varying levels of difficulty. The occipito-temporal responses from 150 ms onwards were closely linked to recognition performance, in contrast to the 100-ms mid-occipital responses. The averaged responses increased gradually as a function of recognition performance, and further analysis (Study III) showed the single response strengths to be graded as well. Study IV addressed the attention dependence of the different processing stages: Occipito-temporal responses peaking around 150 ms depended on the content of the visual field (faces vs. houses), whereas the later and more sustained activity was strongly modulated by the observers attention. Hemodynamic responses paralleled the pattern of the more sustained electrophysiological responses. Study V assessed the temporal processing capacity of the human object recognition system. Above sufficient luminance, contrast and size of the object, the processing speed was not limited by such low-level factors. Taken together, these studies demonstrate several distinct stages in the cortical activation sequence underlying the object recognition chain, reflecting the level of feature integration, difficulty of recognition, and direction of attention.

Temporal acuity in developmental dyslexia across the life span : Tactile, auditory, visual, and crossmodal estimations

Taustaa Kehityksellinen dysleksia (lukivaikeus) on erityinen lukemaan oppimisen vaikeus, johon liittyy usein myös vaikeuksia kirjoittamaan oppimisessa. Lukivaikeuden oletetaan useissa tapauksissa johtuvan vaikeudesta käsitellä kielen äännerakenteita (fonologinen prosessointi). Tämä poikkeavuus voi olla joko lukivaikeuden perimmäinen syy tai vaihtoehtoisesti ongelmat äänteiden käsittelyssä voivat heijastaa jotain vielä perustavamman tason vaikeutta. Eräs tällainen ehdotettu perustavan tasoin syy on poikkeavuus aistien toiminnoissa, erityisesti aistien aikatarkkuudessa. Aikatarkkuudella tarkoitetaan kykyä ja rajoja siinä, kuinka nopeasti esitettyä aistitiedon virtaa henkilö kykenee vastaanottamaan ja käsittelemään. Monet arjen toiminnot lukemisen rinnalla edellyttävät aistien erittäin tarkkaa ajallista erottelukykyä (esimerkiksi kuulo puheen ymmärtämisessä, tunto pintamateriaalin tunnistamisessa). Aikatarkkuusvaikeuksien esiintyvyyttä lukivaikeudessa on tutkittu aiemminkin, mutta yksimielisyyteen ei ole päästy siitä, onko kaikilla lukivaikeuksisilla näitä ongelmia tai mihin aisteihin vaikeudet mahdollisesti rajoittuvat. Myöskään ei tiedetä, havaitaanko aikatarkkuuden ongelmia kaiken ikäisillä lukivaikeuksisilla vai vaihteleeko mahdollinen ongelmien kuva iän mukana. Lisäksi on epäselvää, kuinka aikatarkkuuden ongelmat itseasiassa ovat yhteydessä kielen käsittelyn ja varsinaisen lukemisen vaikeuksiin. Tutkimussarjan aihe Tässä tutkimussarjassa aikatarkkuutta tutkittiin kolmessa yksittäisessä aistissa, joita olivat tunto, näkö ja kuulo, sekä kolmessa aistien välisessä yhdistelmässä, joita olivat audiotaktiilinen (kuulo-tunto), visuotaktiilinen (näkö-tunto) ja audiovisuaalinen (näkö-kuulo). Aikatarkkuutta arvioitiin kahdella eri menetelmällä, jotta saataisiin lisää tietoa siitä, missä tietyssä aikatarkkuuden osa-alueessa lukivaikeuksisilla mahdollisesti on vaikeuksia. Ensimmäisessä tehtävässä tutkittavan tuli arvioida, ovatko esitetyt ei-kielelliset ärsykkeet samanaikaisia vai eriaikaisia. Toisessa tehtävässä koehenkilön tuli arvioida esitettyjen ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden esitysjärjestys. Molemmissa tehtävissä määriteltiin millisekuntitasolla (sekunnin tuhannesosa) se esitysnopeus, jolla koehenkilö kykeni arvioimaan ärsykkeiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Englanninkielinen demonstraatio aikatarkkuustehtävistä löytyy internetistä (http://www.helsinki.fi/hum/ylpsy/neuropsy). Itse aikatarkkuustehtävien lisäksi tutkimussarjassa arvioitiin tutkimushenkilöiden päättelykykyä, kielellisiä toimintoja ja lukemista. Tutkimushenkilöt Tutkimuksiin osallistui 53 lukivaikeuksista ja 66 sujuvaa lukijaa, jotka oli jaettu kolmeen pääikäryhmään: lapset (8-12 vuotta), nuoret aikuiset (20-36 vuotta) ja ikääntyneemmät aikuiset (20-59 vuotta). Ikääntyneempien aikuisten ryhmä oli edelleen jaettu ikävuosikymmenluokkiin, mikä mahdollisti sen tutkimisen, vaikuttaako lisääntyvä aikuisikä lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuuteen (20-29, 30-39, 40-49 ja 50-59 -vuotiaat). Tutkimussarjan tulokset Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat lukivaikeuksisilla olivat yleistyneitä yli iän, aistien ja tehtävien Lukivaikeuksiset kaikissa pääikäryhmissä (lapset, nuoret aikuiset, ikääntyneemmän aikuiset) tarvitsivat samanikäisiä sujuvia lukijoita hitaamman esitystahdin, jotta he kykenivät arvioimaan ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden ajallisen esitystavan oikein. Tämä aikatarkkuuden ongelma havaittiin lukivaikeuksisilla kaikissa aisteissa (tunto, kuulo, näkö) ja niiden yhdistelmissä (audiotaktiilinen, visuotaktiilinen, audiovisuaalinen). Lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuusongelmat ilmenivät edelleen molemmissa tehtävätyypeissä (samanaikaisuuden ja järjestyksen arvioinnissa). Aikatarkkuus ja sen ongelmat olivat yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelyyn Aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelykykyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin), niin lapsilla kuin aikuisillakin, kaikissa aisteissa, niiden yhdistelmissä ja tehtävätyypeissä. Yhteys ei-kielellisen aikatarkkuuden ja kielellisten toimintojen välillä oli kuitenkin selkeämpi lukivaikeuksisilla kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Tämä tarkoittaa, että etenkin lukivaikeuksisilla ryhmätason huono aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä huonoon äänteiden käsittelyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin) ja päinvastoin. Suoraa yhteyttä lukemisen ja aikatarkkuuden välillä ei kuitenkaan havaittu. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä heikensi lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta suhteettoman paljon Tiedonkäsittelyn nopeuden on toistuvasti osoitettu hidastuvan normaalissa ikääntymisessä. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä (20-59 -vuotiailla) heikensikin sekä sujuvien että lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta. Toisin sanoen, mitä iäkkäämmästä aikuisesta oli kysymys, sitä hitaammin hänelle tuli esittää ärsykkeet, jotta hän kykeni arvioimaan niiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Tämä ikään liittyvä tavanomainen hidastuminen oli kuitenkin yllättäen suhteettoman nopeaa lukivaikeuksisilla. Toisin sanoen, jo nuorilla lukivaikeuksisilla havaittu aikatarkkuuden vaikeus (ryhmäero verrattuna sujuviin lukijoihin) ei pysynyt saman suuruisena, vaan ryhmien ero kasvoi aikuisiän lisääntyessä. Tulosten merkitys Lukivaikeuden osoitettiin tässä tutkimussarjassa olevan yhteydessä yleistyneeseen vaikeuteen käsitellä ajassa nopeasti muuttuvaa ei-kielellistä aistitietoa (yli aistien ja niiden yhdistelmien, tehtävätyyppien, tutkittavien iän). Tämä osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei ole ongelma, joka rajoittuu vain kielellisen materiaalin käsittelyn vaikeuksiin (äänteiden käsittely, lukeminen, kirjoittaminen). Nyt havaitut vaikeudet eivät myöskään rajoittuneet vain niihin aisteihin, jotka selkeimmin liittyvät lukemiseen (näkö) ja puhuttuun kieleen (kuulo); Ongelmia esiintyi myös muissa aisteissa (tunto). Lukivaikeuksisten lukijoiden ryhmätasolla havaittu aikatarkkuuden ongelma ei kuitenkaan heijastunut yksilötasolle; Jokainen lukivaikeuksinen ei ollut huono aikatarkkuustehtävissä. Näin ollen ei siis voida väittää, että kaikkien lukivaikeuksisten äänteiden käsittelyn tai lukemaan oppimisen vaikeudet voisivat selittyä aistien toimintojen poikkeavuudella. Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat eivät olleet yhteydessä varsinaiseen lukemiseen. Sekä lukivaikeuksisilla lapsilla että aikuisilla todettiin kuitenkin selkeä yhteys aikatarkkuuden ongelmien ja lukemaan oppimisen keskeisen ennakkoehdon, fonologisen prosessoinnin, välillä. Saattaa siis olla, että synnynnäinen aistien toimintojen poikkeavuus vaikuttaa yksilön suoriutumiseen jo ennen varsinaista lukemaan oppimista, kun ne taidot kehittyvät (fonologinen prosessointi), joille myöhempi lukemaan oppiminen perustuu. Ikäännyttäessä havaittu lukivaikeuksisten suhteettoman nopea aikatarkkuuden heikkeneminen osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei voi olla ongelma, joka koskee vain lapsuusikää, tai vaikeus, joka johtuu vain kehityksen viivästymästä joka kurottaisiin iän myötä umpeen. Tulosten ymmärtämiseksi onkin muistettava kaksi seikkaa. Lukivaikeus on ensinnäkin yhdistetty synnynnäisiin, pieniin, poikkeavuuksiin aivojen rakenteissa ja toiminnoissa. Toisaalta tavanomaiseen ikääntymiseen liittyy se, että aivot kykenevät yhä huonommin korjaamaan ja kiertämään (kompensoimaan) pieniä vaurioita. Tämän perusteella tutkimussarjan tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että lukivaikeuksisten jo synnynnäisesti heikentyneet aivojen kompensointimahdollisuudet eivät ole yhtä tehokkaita puskuroimaan ikääntymisen tavanomaisia vaikutuksia kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Yllättävää kuitenkin on, että tämä korostunut heikkeneminen havaittiin jo suhteellisen nuorilla, työikäisillä, lukivaikeuksisilla, ennen 60 ikävuotta. Samanlaista ikäännyttäessä korostuvaa vaikeutta ei lukivaikeuksilla kuitenkaan havaittu päättelyssä, kielellisissä toiminnoissa tai itse lukemisessa. Vaikuttaakin siis siltä, että ne toiminnot, joita on harjaannutettu aktiivisesti, eivät heikkene kasvavan aikuisiän myötä yhtä suhteettomasti. Alkuperäiset artikkelit Laasonen M, Tomma-Halme J, Lahti-Nuuttila P, Service E, and Virsu V (2000) Rate of information segregation in developmentally dyslexic children, Brain and Language, 75(1), 66-81. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2001) Temporal order and processing acuity of visual, auditory, and tactile perception in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Neuroscience, 1(4), 394-410. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2002) Crossmodal temporal order and processing acuity in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Brain and Language, 80(3), 340-354. Laasonen M, Lahti-Nuuttila P, and Virsu V (2002) Developmentally impaired processing speed decreases more than normally with age, NeuroReport, 13(9), 1111-1113.

The role of aesthetic style in the visual communication of climate change

Public apathy on the issue of Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) is widespread, with more than half of surveyed Australians and Britons in denial of the phenomenon. While much is known about media influences and strategies such as message framing, there is little in the way of research on the impact of designed visual communication. This study builds knowledge and challenges assumptions by employing a relational approach between ACC visual communications, the professionals producing them, and the members of society that these communications are attempting to influence, contributing knowledge to the fields of graphic design, science communication and social science.

Ocean dispersal modelling for propagules of pond apple (Annona glabra L.)

Pond apple invades riparian and coastal environments with water acting as the main vector for dispersal. As seeds float and can reach the ocean, a seed tracking model driven by near surface ocean currents was used to develop maps of potential seed dispersal. Seeds were ‘released’ in the model from sites near the mouths of major North Queensland rivers. Most seeds reach land within three months of release, settling predominately on windward-facing locations. During calm and monsoonal conditions, seeds were generally swept in a southerly direction, however movement turns northward during south easterly trade winds. Seeds released in February from the Johnstone River were capable of being moved anywhere from 100 km north to 150 km south depending on prevailing conditions. Although wind driven currents are the primary mechanism influencing seed dispersal, tidal currents, the East Australian Current, and other factors such as coastline orientation, release location and time also play an important role in determining dispersal patterns. In extreme events such as tropical cyclone Justin in 1997, north east coast rivers could potentially transport seed over 1300 km to the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea and beyond.

Applications of CLIMEX modelling leading to improved biological control

Wilmot Senaratne, Bill Palmer and Bob Sutherst recently published their paper 'Applications of CLIMEX modelling leading to improved biological control' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. They looked at three examples where modern climate matching techniques using computer software produces decisions and results than might happen using previous techniques such as climadiagrams. Assessment of climatic suitability is important at various stages of a biological control project; from initial foreign exploration, to risk assessment in preparation for the release of a particular agent, through to selection of release sites that maximise the agent´s chances of initial establishment. It is now also necessary to predict potential future distributions of both target weeds and agents under climate change.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Improving the agent selection, release and evaluation process: the role of bioclimatic modelling

The value of CLIMEX models to inform biocontrol programs was assessed, including predicting the potential distribution of biocontrol agents and their subsequent population dynamics, using bioclimatic models for the weed Parkinsonia aculeata, two Lantana camara biocontrol agents, and five Mimosa pigra biocontrol agents. The results showed the contribution of data types to CLIMEX models and the capacity of these models to inform and improve the selection, release and post release evaluation of biocontrol agents. Foremost among these was the quality of spatial and temporal information as well as the extent to which overseas range data samples the species’ climatic envelope. Post hoc evaluation and refinement of these models requires improved long-term monitoring of introduced agents and their dynamics at well selected study sites. The authors described the findings of these case studies, highlighted their implications, and considered how to incorporate models effectively into biocontrol programs.

Modelling management options for management of feral camels in central Australia

Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.