The influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and body mass index:A cross-national time series analysis

Objective
To investigate the effect of fast food consumption on mean population body mass index (BMI) and explore the possible influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and BMI.

Methods
The within-country association between fast food consumption and BMI in 25 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1999 and 2008 was explored through multivariate panel regression models, after adjustment for per capita gross domestic product, urbanization, trade openness, lifestyle indicators and other covariates. The possible mediating effect of annual per capita intake of soft drinks, animal fats and total calories on the association between fast food consumption and BMI was also analysed. Two-stage least squares regression models were conducted, using economic freedom as an instrumental variable, to study the causal effect of fast food consumption on BMI.

Findings
After adjustment for covariates, each 1-unit increase in annual fast food transactions per capita was associated with an increase of 0.033 kg/m2 in age-standardized BMI (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.013–0.052). Only the intake of soft drinks – not animal fat or total calories – mediated the observed association (β: 0.030; 95% CI: 0.010–0.050). Economic freedom was an independent predictor of fast food consumption (β: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.16–0.37). When economic freedom was used as an instrumental variable, the association between fast food and BMI weakened but remained significant (β: 0.023; 95% CI: 0.001–0.045).

Conclusion
Fast food consumption is an independent predictor of mean BMI in high-income countries. Market deregulation policies may contribute to the obesity epidemic by facilitating the spread of fast food.

Novel GlyT1 inhibitor chemotypes by scaffold hopping. Part 2: Development of a [3.3.0]-based series and other piperidine bioisosteres

This Letter describes the development and SAR of a novel series of GlyT1 inhibitors derived from a scaffold hopping approach, in lieu of an HTS campaign, which provided intellectual property position. Members within this new [3.3.0]​-​based series, e.g. I, displayed excellent GlyT1 potency, selectivity, free fraction, and modest CNS penetration. Moreover, enantioselective GlyT1 inhibition was obsd., within this novel series and a no. of other piperidine bioisosteric cores.

Fragmentos de Soto de Rojas: a ‘new’ mythological fable of the Spanish Baroque

The twentieth-century poet Gerardo Diego’s commitment to the recovery of a ‘sub-genre’, the mythological fable, evident in his Fábula de Equis y Zeda (1930) has been acknowledged by Peinado Elliot (2006), among others. However a recent discovery in his archive has revealed a hitherto unknown aspect of the poet’s scholarly commitment to this endeavour. A transcription of a previously unpublished, and until recently, unknown Baroque mythological fable with the title ‘Fábula de Alfeo y Aretusa’ was recently found by his daughter Elena, alongside an unpublished study by the young poet of said fable entitled ‘Un poema manuscrito del siglo XVII de la biblioteca Menéndez Pelayo’. Rosa Navarro Durán (2012) is convinced that the correspondences with Soto de Rojas’ 'Los fragmentos de Adonis' and the clear imprint of Góngora’s 'Soledades' and his 'Fábula de Píramo y Tisbe' permit us to attribute it, with some confidence, to Pedro Soto de Rojas. This essay will consider the significance of this exciting discovery for our reading of Soto de Rojas’ existing corpus, exploring in particular the poem’s links with the dark eroticism of the Fragmentos de Adonis, (1652) and the early Fábula de la Naya.(1623)

Arsenic Contents in Spanish Infant Rice, Pureed Infant Foods, and Rice

It seems there is a positive correlation between rice content and arsenic level in foods. This is of extraordinary importance for infants below 1 y of age because their diet is very limited and in some cases is highly dependent on rice-based products; this is particularly true for infants with the celiac disease because they have no other option than consume gluten-free products, such as rice or corn. Arsenic contents were significantly higher (P <0.001) in gluten-free infant rice (0.057 mg kg-1) than in products with gluten, based on a mixture of cereals (0.024 mg kg-1). Besides, especial precaution must be taken when preparing rice-based products at home, because arsenic content in Spanish rice was high, with levels being above 0.3 mg kg-1 in some cases.

Income ineqaulity from 1960-2012: a brief time-series history of capital and labour

This commentary examines two principal forms of inequality and their evolution since the 1960s: the division of national income between capital and labour, and the share of total income held by the top 1 per cent of earners. Trends are linked to current discussions of inequality drivers such as financialisation, and a brief time-series analysis of the effects of trade and financial sector growth on top incomes is presented.

Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

Optimal Time Series Momentum

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

Learning from time series:Supervised Aggregative Feature Extraction

Many modeling problems require to estimate a scalar output from one or more time series. Such problems are usually tackled by extracting a fixed number of features from the time series (like their statistical moments), with a consequent loss in information that leads to suboptimal predictive models. Moreover, feature extraction techniques usually make assumptions that are not met by real world settings (e.g. uniformly sampled time series of constant length), and fail to deliver a thorough methodology to deal with noisy data. In this paper a methodology based on functional learning is proposed to overcome the aforementioned problems; the proposed Supervised Aggregative Feature Extraction (SAFE) approach allows to derive continuous, smooth estimates of time series data (yielding aggregate local information), while simultaneously estimating a continuous shape function yielding optimal predictions. The SAFE paradigm enjoys several properties like closed form solution, incorporation of first and second order derivative information into the regressor matrix, interpretability of the generated functional predictor and the possibility to exploit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces setting to yield nonlinear predictive models. Simulation studies are provided to highlight the strengths of the new methodology w.r.t. standard unsupervised feature selection approaches. © 2012 IEEE.

Operation X: Soviet Russia and the Spanish Civil War

This article offers a critical reassessment of the Soviet role in the Spanish Civil War, based on recent scholarship and declassified official documents. The author interrogates the broad historiographical consensus that reduces Soviet intervention in Spain to a sinister and nefarious force. Stalin's ignominious reputation vis-à-vis the Loyalist side is present in nearly all Western scholarship on the war, whether specialized studies by Nationalist sympathizers or Republicans in exile, or general treatments of European history written in England or America. It would be difficult to locate even a brief overview of the Civil War published outside of Russia that does not in some fashion demonize the Soviet dictator and the Soviet military assistance, code-named ‘Operation X’. The author argues that the basic error in the wide-ranging literature of this topic has always been to approach Stalin's position in Spain as one based on strength rather than weakness. If framed within the context of failure, Stalin's long-standing reputation as the villain of the Civil War may appear in a strikingly different light, and Soviets’ overall contribution to the Loyalist struggle therefore deserving a nuanced revision. The author also explores the multiple strands of the Soviet-Spanish relationship, which included not only military aid but also diplomatic, cultural and humanitarian facets.