The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Leptonic minimal flavour violation in warped extra dimensions

Lepton mass hierarchies and lepton flavour violation are revisited in the framework of Randall-Sundrum models. Models with Dirac-type as well as Majorana-type neutrinos are considered. The five-dimensional c-parameters are fit to the charged lepton and neutrino masses and mixings using chi(2) minimization. Leptonic flavour violation is shown to be large in these cases. Schemes of minimal flavour violation are considered for the cases of an effective LLHH operator and Dirac neutrinos and are shown to significantly reduce the limits from lepton flavour violation.

The problem of clear air turbulence: Changing perspectives in the understanding of the phenomenon

Due to rapid improvements in on-board instrumentation and atmospheric observation systems, in most cases, aircraft are able to steer clear of regions of adverse weather. However, they still encounter unexpected bumpy flight conditions in regions away from storms and clouds. This is the phenomenon of clear air turbulence (CAT), which has been a challenge to our understanding as well as efforts at prediction. While most of such cases result in mild discomfort, a few cases can be violent leading to serious injuries to passengers and damage to the aircraft. The underlying physical mechanisms have been sought to be explained in terms of fluid dynamic instabilities and waves in the atmosphere. The main mechanisms which have been proposed are: (i) Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of shear layers, (ii) waves generated from flow over mountains, (iii) inertia-gravity waves from clouds and other sources, (iv) spontaneous imbalance theory and (v) horizontal vortex tubes. This has also undergone a change over the years. We present an overview of the mechanisms proposed and their implications for prediction.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Impact angle constraint guidance law using cubic splines for intercepting stationary targets

In this paper the cubic spline guidance law is presented for intercepting a stationary target at a desired impact angle. The guidance law is obtained from cubic spline curve based trajectory using an inverse method. The cubic spline t rajectory curve expresses the altitude as a cubic polynomial of the downrange. The guidance law is modified to achieve interception in the cases where impact angle is greater that or equal to 90◦. The guidance law is implemented in a feedback mode to maintain the desired impact angle and to reduce miss distance in the presence of lateral acceleration saturation and atmospheric distur- bances. The simulation results show that the guidance law fulfills all the requirements.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solution Processed Cu2CoSnS4 Thin Films for Photovoltaic Applications

Earth abundant alternative chalcopyrite Cu2CoSnS4 (CCTS) thin films were deposited by a facile sol-gel process onto larger substrates. Temperature dependence of the process control of deposition and desired phase formations was studied in detail. Films were analyzed for complete transformation from amorphous to polycrystalline, with textured structures for stannite phase, as reflected from the X-ray diffraction and with nearly stoichiometric compositions of Cu:Co:Sn:S = 2:0:1:0:1:0:4:0 from EDAX analysis. Morphological investigations revealed that the CCTS films with larger grains, on the order of its thickness, were synthesized at higher temperature of 500 degrees C. The optimal band gap for application in photovoltaics was estimated to be 1.4 eV. Devices with SLG/CCTS/Al geometry were fabricated for real time demonstration of photoconductivity under A.M 1.5 G solar and 1064 rim infrared laser illuminations. A photodetector showed one order current amplification from similar to 1.9 X 10(-6) A in the dark to 2.2 x 10(-5) A and 9.8 X 10(-6) A under A.M 1.5 G illumination and 50 mW cm(-2) IR laser, respectively. Detector sensitivity, responsivity, external quantum efficiency, and gain were estimated as 4.2, 0.12 A/W, 14.74% and 14.77%, respectively, at 50 mW cm(-2) laser illuminations. An ON and OFF ratio of 2.5 proved that CCTS can be considered as a potential absorber in low cost photovoltaics applications.

Secondary instability as a possible mechanism for clear-air turbulence: a case study

Many theories and mechanisms have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of clear-air turbulence (CAT), and some of them have been successful in predicting light, moderate and, in some cases, severe turbulence. It is only recently that skill in the forecasting of the severe form of CAT, which could lead to injuries to passengers and damage to aircraft, has improved. Recent observations and simulations suggest that some severe to extreme turbulence could be caused by horizontal vortex tubes resulting from secondary instabilities of regions of high shear in the atmosphere. We have conducted direct numerical simulations to understand the scale relationship between primary structures (larger-scale structures related to one of the causes mentioned above) and secondary structures (smaller-sized, shear structures of the size of aircraft). From shear layer simulations, we find that the ratio of sizes of primary and secondary vortices is of the right order to generate aircraft-scale vortex tubes from typical atmospheric shear layers. We have also conducted simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric model, to understand possible causes of turbulence experienced by a flight off the west coast of India. Our simulations show the occurrence of primary flow structures related to synoptic conditions around the time of the incident. The evidence presented for this mechanism also has implications for possible methods of detection and avoidance of severe CAT.

The temperature dependence of effective thermal conductivity of open-celled steel alloy foams

The effective thermal conductivity of steel alloy FeCrAlY (Fe-20 wt.% Cr-5 wt.% Al-2 wt.% Y-20 wt.%) foams with a range of pore sizes and porosities was measured between 300 and 800 K, under both vacuum and atmospheric conditions. The results show that the effective thermal conductivity increases rapidly as temperature is increased, particularly in the higher temperature range (500-800 K) where the transport of heat is dominated by thermal radiation. The effective conductivity at temperature 800 K can be three times higher than that at room temperature (300 K). Results obtained under vacuum conditions reveal that the effective conductivity increases with increasing pore size or decreasing porosity. The contribution of natural convection to heat conduction was found to be significant, with the effective thermal conductivity at ambient pressure twice the value of vacuum condition. The results also show that natural convection in metal foams is strongly dependent upon porosity. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental Investigation On The Holdup Distribution Of Oil-Water Two-Phase Flow In Horizontal Parallel Tubes

An experimental investigation was conducted to study the holdup distribution of oil and water two-phase flow in two parallel tubes with unequal tube diameter. Tests were performed using white oil (of viscosity 52 mPa s and density 860 kg/m(3)) and tap water as liquid phases at room temperature and atmospheric outlet pressure. Measurements were taken of water flow rates from 0.5 to 12.5 m(3)/h and input oil volume fractions from 3 to 94 %. Results showed that there were different flow pattern maps between the run and bypass tubes when oil-water two-phase flow is found in the parallel tubes. At low input fluid flow rates, a large deviation could be found on the average oil holdup between the bypass and the run tubes. However, with increased input oil fraction at constant water flow rate, the holdup at the bypass tube became close to that at the run tube. Furthermore, experimental data showed that there was no significant variation in flow pattern and holdup between the run and main tubes. In order to calculate the holdup in the form of segregated flow, the drift flux model has been used here.

Contaminant trends in US National Estuarine Research Reserves

Inputs of toxic chemicals provide one of the major types of anthropogenic stress threatening our Nation's coastal and estuarine waters. To assess this threat, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA’s) National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program Mussel Watch Project monitors the concentrations of more than 70 toxic chemicals in sediments and on the whole soft-parts of mussels and oysters at over 300 sites around the U.S. Twenty of the 25 designated areas that comprise NOAA's National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) have one or more Mussel Watch monitoring sites. Trace elements and organic contaminants were quantified including As, Ag, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn, ΣPCBs, ΣPAHs, DDT and its metabolites, and butyltins. The Mussel Watch sites located in or near the 20 Reserves provide for both status and trends. Generally the Reserves have trace element and organic contaminant concentrations that are at or below the median concentration determined for all NS&T Mussel Watch monitoring data. Trends were derived using the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient. It was possible to determine if trends exist for sites at which six or more years of data are available. Generally no trends were found for trace elements but when trends were found they were usually decreasing. The same general conclusion holds for organic contaminants but more decreasing trends were found than for trace elements. The greatest number of decreasing trends were found for tributyltin and its metabolites. (PDF contains 203 pages)

Sediment Quality in Puget Sound Year 3 - Southern Puget Sound

As a component of a three-year cooperative effort of the Washington State Department of Ecology and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, surficial sediment samples from 100 locations in southern Puget Sound were collected in 1999 to determine their relative quality based on measures of toxicity, chemical contamination, and benthic infaunal assemblage structure. The survey encompassed an area of approximately 858 km2, ranging from East and Colvos Passages south to Oakland Bay, and including Hood Canal. Toxic responses were most severe in some of the industrialized waterways of Tacoma’s Commencement Bay. Other industrialized harbors in which sediments induced toxic responses on smaller scales included the Port of Olympia, Oakland Bay at Shelton, Gig Harbor, Port Ludlow, and Port Gamble. Based on the methods selected for this survey, the spatial extent of toxicity for the southern Puget Sound survey area was 0% of the total survey area for amphipod survival, 5.7% for urchin fertilization, 0.2% for microbial bioluminescence, and 5- 38% with the cytochrome P450 HRGS assay. Measurements of trace metals, PAHs, PCBs, chlorinated pesticides, other organic chemicals, and other characteristics of the sediments, indicated that 20 of the 100 samples collected had one or more chemical concentrations that exceeded applicable, effects-based sediment guidelines and/or Washington State standards. Chemical contamination was highest in eight samples collected in or near the industrialized waterways of Commencement Bay. Samples from the Thea Foss and Middle Waterways were primarily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs and trace metals, whereas those from Hylebos Waterway were contaminated with chlorinated organic hydrocarbons. The remaining 12 samples with elevated chemical concentrations primarily had high levels of other chemicals, including bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol, and phenol. The characteristics of benthic infaunal assemblages in south Puget Sound differed considerably among locations and habitat types throughout the study area. In general, many of the small embayments and inlets throughout the study area had infaunal assemblages with relatively low total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values, although total abundance values were very high in some cases, typically due to high abundance of one organism such as the polychaete Aphelochaeta sp. N1. The majority of the samples collected from passages, outer embayments, and larger bodies of water tended to have infaunal assemblages with higher total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values. Two samples collected in the Port of Olympia near a superfund cleanup site had no living organisms in them. A weight-of-evidence approach used to simultaneously examine all three “sediment quality triad” parameters, identified 11 stations (representing 4.4 km2, 0.5% of the total study area) with sediment toxicity, chemical contamination, and altered benthos (i.e., degraded sediment quality), 36 stations (493.5 km2, 57.5% total study area) with no toxicity or chemical contamination (i.e., high sediment quality), 35 stations (274.1 km2, 32.0% total study area) with one impaired sediment triad parameter (i.e., intermediate/high sediment quality), and 18 stations (85.7km2, 10.0% total study area) with two impaired sediment parameters (i.e., intermediate/degraded quality sediments). Generally, upon comparison, the number of stations with degraded sediments based upon the sediment quality triad of data was slightly greater in the central Puget Sound than in the northern and southern Puget Sound study areas, with the percent of the total study area degraded in each region decreasing from central to north to south (2.8, 1.3 and 0.5%, respectively). Overall, the sediments collected in Puget Sound during the combined 1997-1999 surveys were among the least contaminated relative to other marine bays and estuaries studied by NOAA using equivalent methods. (PDF contains 351 pages)

Resource survey of Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary, 1983

Forward: Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary (LKNMS) was designated in 1981 to protect and promote the study, teaching, and wise use of the resources of Looe Key Sanctuary (Plate A). In order to wisely manage this valuable resource, a quantitative resource inventory was funded by the Sanctuary Programs Division (SPD), Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in cooperation with the Southeast Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA; the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami; the Fisher Island Laboratory, United States Geological Survey; and the St. Petersburg Laboratory, State of Florida Department of Natural Resources. This report is the result of this cooperative effort. The objective of this study was to quantitatively inventory selected resources of LKNMS in order to allow future monitoring of changes in the Sanctuary as a result of human or natural processes. This study, referred to as Phase I, gives a brief summary of past and present uses of the Sanctuary (Chapter 2); and describes general habitat types (Chapter 3), geology and sediment distribution (Chapter 4), coral abundance and distribution (Chapter 5), the growth history of the coral Montastraea annularis (Chapter 6), reef fish abundance and distribution (Chapter 7), and status of selected resources (Chapter 8). An interpretation of the results of the survey are provided for management consideration (Chapter 9). The results are expected to provide fundamental information for applied management, natural history interpretation, and scientific research. Numerous photographs and illustrations were used to supplement the report to make the material presented easier to comprehend (Plate B). We anticipate the information provided will be used by managers, naturalists, and the general public in addition to scientists. Unless otherwise indicated, all photographs were taken at Looe Key Reef by Dr. James A. Bohnsack. The top photograph in Plate 7.8 was taken by Michael C. Schmale. Illustrations were done by Jack Javech, NMFS. Field work was initiated in May 1983 and completed for the most part by October 1983 thanks to the cooperation of numerous people and organizations. In addition to the participating agencies and organizations we thank the Newfound Harbor Marine Institute and the Division of Parks and Recreation, State of Florida Department of Natural Resources for their logistical support. Special thanks goes to Billy Causey, the Sanctuary Manager, for his help, information, and comments. We thank in alphabetical order: Scott Bannerot, Margie Bastian, Bill Becker, Barbara Bohnsack, Grant Beardsley, John Halas, Raymond Hixon, Irene Hooper, Eric Lindblad, and Mike Schmale. We dedicate this effort to the memory of Ray Hixon who participated in the study and who loved Looe Key. (PDF contains 43 pages)