Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP-STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures.

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) the new parameter of 2D texture analysis for the evaluation of 3D bone micro architecture status

X-ray is a technology that is used for numerous applications in the medical field. The process of X-ray projection gives a 2-dimension (2D) grey-level texture from a 3- dimension (3D) object. Until now no clear demonstration or correlation has positioned the 2D texture analysis as a valid indirect evaluation of the 3D microarchitecture. TBS is a new texture parameter based on the measure of the experimental variogram. TBS evaluates the variation between 2D image grey-levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing correlations between 3D bone microarchitecture parameters - evaluated from μCT reconstructions - and the TBS value, calculated on 2D projected images. 30 dried human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a micro-scanner (eXplorer Locus, GE) at isotropic resolution of 93 μm. 3D vertebral body models were used. The following 3D microarchitecture parameters were used: Bone volume fraction (BV/TV), Trabecular thickness (TbTh), trabecular space (TbSp), trabecular number (TbN) and connectivity density (ConnD). 3D/2D projections has been done by taking into account the Beer-Lambert Law at X-ray energy of 50, 100, 150 KeV. TBS was assessed on 2D projected images. Correlations between TBS and the 3D microarchitecture parameters were evaluated using a linear regression analysis. Paired T-test is used to assess the X-ray energy effects on TBS. Multiple linear regressions (backward) were used to evaluate relationships between TBS and 3D microarchitecture parameters using a bootstrap process. BV/TV of the sample ranged from 18.5 to 37.6% with an average value at 28.8%. Correlations' analysis showedthat TBSwere strongly correlatedwith ConnD(0.856≤r≤0.862; p<0.001),with TbN (0.805≤r≤0.810; p<0.001) and negatively with TbSp (−0.714≤r≤−0.726; p<0.001), regardless X-ray energy. Results show that lower TBS values are related to "degraded" microarchitecture, with low ConnD, low TbN and a high TbSp. The opposite is also true. X-ray energy has no effect onTBS neither on the correlations betweenTBS and the 3Dmicroarchitecture parameters. In this study, we demonstrated that TBS was significantly correlated with 3D microarchitecture parameters ConnD and TbN, and negatively with TbSp, no matter what X-ray energy has been used. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: None declared.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Intracortical connectivity of layer VI pyramidal neurons in the somatosensory cortex of normal and barrelless mice.

In mice, barrels in layer IV of the somatosensory cortex correspond to the columnar representations of whisker follicles. In barrelless (BRL) mice, barrels are absent, but functionally, a columnar organization persists. Previously we characterized the aberrant geometry of thalamic projection of BRL mice using axonal reconstructions of individual neurons. Here we proceeded with the analysis of the intracortical projections from layer VI pyramidal neurons, to assess their contribution to the columnar organization. From series of tangential sections we reconstructed the axon collaterals of individual layer VI pyramidal neurons in the C2 barrel column that were labelled with biocytin [controls from normal (NOR) strain, 19 cells; BRL strain, nine cells]. Using six morphological parameters in a cluster analysis, we showed that layer VI neurons in NOR mice are distributed into four clusters distinguished by the radial and tangential extent of their intracortical projections. These clusters correlated with the cortical or subcortical projection of the main axon. In BRL mice, neurons were distributed within the same four clusters, but their projections to the granular and supragranular layers were significantly smaller and their tangential projection was less columnar than in NOR mice. However, in both strains the intracortical projections had a preference for the appropriate barrel column (C2), indicating that layer VI pyramidal cells could participate in the functional columnar organization of the barrel cortex. Correlative light and electron microscopy analyses provided morphometric data on the intracortical synaptic boutons and synapses of layer VI pyramidal neurons and revealed that projections to layer IV preferentially target excitatory dendritic spines and shafts.

Folner sequences and finite operators

This article analyzes Folner sequences of projections for bounded linear operators and their relationship to the class of finite operators introduced by Williams in the 70ies. We prove that each essentially hyponormal operator has a proper Folner sequence (i.e. a Folner sequence of projections strongly converging to 1). In particular, any quasinormal, any subnormal, any hyponormal and any essentially normal operator has a proper Folner sequence. Moreover, we show that an operator is finite if and only if it has a proper Folner sequence or if it has a non-trivial finite dimensional reducing subspace. We also analyze the structure of operators which have no Folner sequence and give examples of them. For this analysis we introduce the notion of strongly non-Folner operators, which are far from finite block reducible operators, in some uniform sense, and show that this class coincides with the class of non-finite operators.

Molecular and physiological characterisation of lonotropic receptors in the sacculus in drosophila

Chemosensation is the detection of chemical signals in the environment that enable an animal to make informed decisions about food choice, mate preference or predator detection. Dissecting the molecular and neural mechanisms by which animals detect chemical cues is an important goal towards understanding how they interact with the environment. An attractive system to dissect the mechanisms of chemosensation is the olfactory system. One of the most-investigated olfactory systems is that of Drosophila melanogaster, a model organism that is amenable to a powerful combination of genetic and physiological analyses. Embedded within the antennal olfactory organ of Drosophila is an unusual sensory structure called the sacculus. The sacculus is comprised of three distinct chambers, each lined with several sensilla housing two to three neurons. Previous morphological, anatomical and surgical studies of sacculus neurons have implicated sacculus neurons in chemosensation, hygrosensation and/or thermosensation. While a subset of sacculus neurons have been physiologically characterised as temperature sensors, the role of this organ has remained largely mysterious, due to its inaccessibility to peripheral electrophysiological analysis. Recently a new family of olfactory receptors, the lonotropic Receptors (IRs), was identified. Five IRs are expressed in sacculus neurons providing the first selective molecular markers for these cells. In this thesis I describe the molecular, physiological and anatomical characterisation of these neurons. Genetic labelling of specific populations of sacculus neurons with anatomical (CD8:GFP) reporters has identified neurons in sacculus chambers I and II express IR40a+IR93a together with their co- receptor IR25a, while neurons in chamber III express IR64a with its co-receptor IR8a. Both these sets of neurons project to two distinct glomeruli in the antennal lobe; IR40a neurons project to the column and arm, IR64a neurons project to DC4 and DP1m. Through a live optical imaging screen I showed that these neurons are indeed olfactory and IR64a neurons recognise acidic ligands, while IR40a neurons recognise amine ligands. IR40a and IR64a neurons are in fact composed of anatomically and physiologically distinct subpopulations, strongly implying the existence of other factors that define their functional properties. My thesis identifies the sacculus as a specialised olfactory organ capable of detecting acids and bases, which are of widespread importance to insects. The data from my thesis along with data from other labs show the sacculus is composed of different populations of olfactory sensory neurons and thermosensory neurons. Comparative genomic analysis of sacculus IRs across insects reveals them to be among the most conserved of this receptor repertoire, suggesting that the sacculus represents an evolutionarily ancient insect olfactory acid-base sensor. - La détection des produits chimiques se trouvant dans l'environnement (perception chimiosensorielle) permet à un animal de choisir sa nourriture, son partenaire ou encore d'identifier ses prédateurs. Décortiquer les mécanismes moléculaires et neuronaux grâce auxquels les animaux détectent ces signaux chimiques permet de comprendre comment ces animaux interagissent avec leur environnement. Un système intéressant pour décortiquer ces mécanismes de perception chimiosensorielle est le système olfactif, de la drosophile (Drosophila melanogaster), aussi appelée mouche du vinaigre. C'est un animal modèle très utile grâce à la combinaison d'outils génétiques puissants et d'analyses physiologiques facilement réalisables. Dans l'antenne de la drosophile, qui est l'organe olfactif principal de cet animal, se trouve une structure appelée sacculus. Celui-ci est composé de trois chambres distinctes, chacune comprenant plusieurs sensilles à l'intérieur desquelles se trouvent deux à trois neurones. De précédentes études morphologiques et anatomiques des ces neurones ont déterminé qu'ils sont impliqués dans la perception des odeurs, de l'humidité et de la température. Malgré ceci, la fonction principale de cet organe reste largement inconnue, principalement car il est inaccessible aux analyses électrophysiologiques. Récemment, une nouvelle famille de soixante-six récepteurs olfactifs, nommés Récepteurs lonotropiques (IRs), a été découverte chez la drosophile. Cinq IRs sont exprimés dans les neurones du sacculus. Pour la première fois, une sélection de marqueurs moléculaires est disponible pour l'étude de ces cellules. Dans cette thèse, les caractéristiques moléculaires, physiologiques et anatomiques des neurones du sacculus sont décrites. Ces populations de neurones situés dans le sacculus ont été marquées avec des gènes rapporteurs (CD8:GFP). Ceci a montré que les récepteurs IR40a et IR93a sont exprimés ensemble avec le co-récepteur IR25a dans les chambres I et II, tandis que les neurones de la chambre III expriment IR64a avec son co-récepteur IR8a. Ces deux groupes de neurones projettent vers deux glomérules distincts du lobe antennaire : les neurones IR40a projettent vers la column et le arm, alors que les neurones IR64a projettent vers DC4 et DP1m. Un screen d'imagerie optique a démontré que ces neurones sont en effet des neurones olfactifs, et que les neurones IR64a reconnaissent des ligands acides, tandis que les neurones IR40a reconnaissent des ligands aminés. De plus, les neurones IR40a et IR64a sont séparés en sous-populations distinctes anatomiquement et physiologiquement, et d'autres facteurs permettant de définir leurs propriétés fonctionnelles sont probablement impliqués. Cette thèse identifie ainsi le sacculus comme un organe olfactif spécialisé capable de détecter des acides et amines, lesquels sont très importants pour les insectes. Toutes les données collectées durant cette thèse, combinées aux données d'autres laboratoires, montrent que le sacculus est composé de différentes populations de neurones olfactifs et thermosenseurs. Ces IRs sont très conservés parmi les insectes, suggérant que le sacculus représente révolution d'un ancien détecteur olfactif d'acides et de bases chez l'insecte. - Tous les animaux sont capables de percevoir les signaux chimiques dans leur environnement, comme les odeurs ou le goût, via différents organes. L'odorat est le sens qui permet de percevoir les odeurs, et il est implique des neurones olfactifs qui se trouvent dans le nez des mammifères ou les antennes des insectes. La capacité d'un neurone olfactif à détecter une molécule odorante dépend des types de récepteurs olfactifs qu'il exprime. Il existe deux grandes familles de récepteurs qui perçoivent les odeurs : les Récepteurs Olfactifs, ORs, et Récepteurs lonotropiques IRs, qui détectent différents types d'odeurs avec différents mécanismes. Lorsqu'un récepteur reconnaît une molécule odorante, il convertit ce signal en un signal électrique qui est ensuite transmis au centre olfactif dans le cerveau. La drosophile (Drosophila melanogaster), aussi appelée mouche du vinaigre, est utilisée comme animal modèle pour étudier l'odorat, parce que son génome entier a été séquencé et que ses gènes sont facilement manipulables. De plus, l'anatomie du système olfactif de la mouche est similaire à celui des mammifères, malgré qu'il possède moins de neurones, ce qui le rend moins complexe. Ma thèse a pour objectif d'étudier les Récepteurs lonotropiques dans un organe spécifique, appelé le sacculus, situé dans les antennes. Les neurones du sacculus exprimant des IRs envoient leurs projections au centre olfactif du cerveau, suggérant que ces neurones perçoivent les odeurs. Une technique d'imagerie optique a été utilisée sur le cerveau de mouches vivantes afin de mesurer la réponse des neurones du le sacculus à différentes odeurs. J'ai démontré que ces récepteurs détectent des acides et des amines, qui sont très importants pour les insectes. Par exemple, les acides se retrouvent dans les fruits mûrs sur lesquels les mouches vont se nourrir, s'accoupler et poser leurs oeufs, et les amines sont souvent produites par des bactéries pouvant être nuisible pour la mouche. La principale découverte de ma thèse est donc l'identification du sacculus comme un organe capable de détecter deux des principales odeurs importantes pour la mouche. Ces récepteurs sont aussi présents dans d'autres insectes où ils jouent peut-être des rôles différents. Les acides et les amines se retrouvent aussi dans les excrétions (comme la sueur ou l'urine) de beaucoup de mammifères, qui pourraient potentiellement être dangereux pour la mouche, mais qui attirent les moustiques se nourrissant de leur sang.

Discovering similarities in the time use patterns of the Spanish Autonomous Communities by Fuzzy techniques

In 2000 the European Statistical Office published the guidelines for developing theHarmonized European Time Use Surveys system. Under such a unified framework,the first Time Use Survey of national scope was conducted in Spain during 2002–03. The aim of these surveys is to understand human behavior and the lifestyle ofpeople. Time allocation data are of compositional nature in origin, that is, they aresubject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Thus, standard multivariatetechniques cannot be directly applied to analyze them. The goal of this work is toidentify homogeneous Spanish Autonomous Communities with regard to the typicalactivity pattern of their respective populations. To this end, fuzzy clustering approachis followed. Rather than the hard partitioning of classical clustering, where objects areallocated to only a single group, fuzzy method identify overlapping groups of objectsby allowing them to belong to more than one group. Concretely, the probabilistic fuzzyc-means algorithm is conveniently adapted to deal with the Spanish Time Use Surveymicrodata. As a result, a map distinguishing Autonomous Communities with similaractivity pattern is drawn.Key words: Time use data, Fuzzy clustering; FCM; simplex space; Aitchison distance

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Bandwidth allocation based on real time calculations using the convolution approach

This paper focuses on one of the methods for bandwidth allocation in an ATM network: the convolution approach. The convolution approach permits an accurate study of the system load in statistical terms by accumulated calculations, since probabilistic results of the bandwidth allocation can be obtained. Nevertheless, the convolution approach has a high cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements. This aspect makes real-time calculations difficult, so many authors do not consider this approach. With the aim of reducing the cost we propose to use the multinomial distribution function: the enhanced convolution approach (ECA). This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements and makes a simple deconvolution process possible. The ECA is used in connection acceptance control, and some results are presented

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

On concentrators and related approximation constants

Pippenger [Pi77] showed the existence of (6m,4m,3m,6)-concentrator for each positive integer m using a probabilistic method. We generalize his approach and prove existence of (6m,4m,3m,5.05)-concentrator (which is no longer regular, but has fewer edges). We apply this result to improve the constant of approximation of almost additive set functions by additive set functions from 44.5 (established by Kalton and Roberts in [KaRo83] to 39. We show a more direct connection of the latter problem to the Whitney type estimate for approximation of continuous functions on a cube in &b&R&/b&&sup&d&/sup& by linear functions, and improve the estimate of this Whitney constant from 802 (proved by Brudnyi and Kalton in [BrKa00] to 73.

Mapeo con robot móvil: caracterización y modelado

El projecte tracta de la fabricació d’un robot mòbil que sigui capaç de realitzar el mapeig del seu entorn, evitant els obstacles que es pugui trobar al transcurs del seu recorregut. Per tal d’obtenir els resultats desitjats, s’ha realitzat la caracterització dels seus components emprant algorismes probabilístics ,amb els que s’ha pogut determinar la seva eficiència. Finalment s’han realitzat els algorismes corresponents per graficar el mapeig del recorregut del robot i del seu entorn, aconseguint el objectiu plantejat.