972 resultados para Overflow probability


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First published online: December 16, 2014.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Informática Médica)

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Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of a systematic diagnostic approach in patients with chest pain in the emergency room in relation to the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the rate of hospitalization in high-cost units. METHODS: One thousand and three consecutive patients with chest pain were screened according to a pre-established process of diagnostic investigation based on the pre-test probability of ACS determinate by chest pain type and ECG changes. RESULTS: Of the 1003 patients, 224 were immediately discharged home because of no suspicion of ACS (route 5) and 119 were immediately transferred to the coronary care united because of ST elevation or left bundle-branch block (LBBB) (route 1) (74% of these had a final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction [AMI]). Of the 660 patients that remained in the emergency room under observation, 77 (12%) had AMI without ST segment elevation and 202 (31%) had unstable angina (UA). In route 2 (high probability of ACS) 17% of patients had AMI and 43% had UA, whereas in route 3 (low probability) 2% had AMI and 7 % had UA. The admission ECG has been confirmed as a poor sensitivity test for the diagnosis of AMI ( 49%), with a positive predictive value considered only satisfactory (79%). CONCLUSION: A systematic diagnostic strategy, as used in this study, is essential in managing patients with chest pain in the emergency room in order to obtain high diagnostic accuracy, lower cost, and optimization of the use of coronary care unit beds.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a systematic model of care for patients with chest pain and no ST segment elevation in the emergency room. METHODS: From 1003 patients submitted to an algorithm diagnostic investigation by probability of acute ischemic syndrome. We analyzed 600 ones with no elevation of ST segment, then enrolled to diagnostic routes of median (route 2) and low probability (route 3) to ischemic syndrome. RESULTS: In route 2 we found 17% acute myocardial infarction and 43% unstable angina, whereas in route 3 the rates were 2% and 7%, respectively. Patients with normal/non--specific ECG had 6% probability of AMI whereas in those with negative first CKMB it was 7%; the association of the 2 data only reduced it to 4%. In patients in route 2 the diagnosis of AMI could only be ruled out with serial CKMB measurement up to 9 hours, while in route 3 it could be done in up to 3 hours. Thus, sensitivity and negative predictive value of admission CKMB for AMI were 52% and 93%, respectively. About one-half of patients with unstable angina did not disclose objective ischemic changes on admission. CONCLUSION: The use of a systematic model of care in patients with chest pain offers the opportunity of hindering inappropriate release of patients with ACI and reduces unnecessary admissions. However some patients even with normal ECG should not be released based on a negative first CKMB. Serial measurement of CKMB up to 9 hours is necessary in patients with medium probability of AMI.

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Relatório de atividade profissional de mestrado em Ciências – Formação Contínua de Professores (área de especialização em Matemática)

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OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe echocardiographic measurements and left ventricular mass in a population sample of healthy adults inhabitants of the urban region of Porto Alegre. METHODS: An analytical, observational, population-based, cross-sectional study was done. Through a multi-stage probability sample, 114 individuals were selected to be submitted to a M-mode and two-dimensional echocardiogram with color Doppler. The analyses were restricted to healthy participants. Echocardiographic measurements were described by mean, standard deviation, 95 percentile and 95% confidence limits. RESULTS: A total of 100 healthy participants, with several characteristics similar to those from the original population, had a complete and reliable echocardiographic examination. The measurements of aorta, left atrium, interventricular septum, left ventricle in systole and diastole, left posterior wall and left ventricular mass, adjusted or not for body surface area or height, were significantly higher in males. The right ventricle size was similar among the genders. Several echocardiographic measurements were within standard normal limits. Interventricular septum, left posterior wall and left ventricular mass, adjusted or not for anthropometric measurements, and aortic dimensions had lower mean and range than the reference limits. CONCLUSION: The means and estimates of distribution for the measurements of interventricular septum, left posterior wall and left ventricular mass found in this survey were lower than those indicated by the international literature and accepted as normal limits.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of thrombolytic and acetylsalicylic acid therapies in acute myocardial infarct patients as well as the availability of technical and human resources for the care of these patients in the emergency units of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Additional objectives were the evaluation of the use of primary angioplasty and the level of acceptance of SBC /RJ as an entity responsible for programs of continued medical education. METHODS: Interviews with physicians at 46 emergency units in the city of Rio de Janeiro. RESULTS: Of the 46 emergency units inspected, a policy of encouragement to use thrombolytic therapy was only prescribed in 6.5%. In 1/3 of the public wards no thrombolytic agents were available, and in none of them was access to primary angioplasty regularly available; 45.9% did not offer the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 60% of the physicians on-call (at both public and private emergency units), appeared not to know the importance of the use of acetylsalicylic acid in acute myocardial infarct patients; all physicians interviewed would participate in programs of continued medical education organized by the SBC/RJ. CONCLUSION: The study suggests there was: 1) the low probability of the use of thrombolytic therapy in the majority of the emergency units in of the city of Rio de Janeiro due to the inadequate policy of waiting for the transfer of the patient to coronary or intensive care unit; 2) a low awareness to the importance of early use of acetylsalic acid in acute myocardial infarct; 3) half of the emergency units of the public net do not have the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 4) a high level of credibility exists that would enable the SBC/RJ to set up programs for continued medical education to change the mentality regarding the use of thrombolytic therapy and of acetylsalicylic acid.

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The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of problems requiring reprogramming of atrioventricular pacemakers in a long-term follow-up, and also the causes for this procedure. METHODS: During the period from May '98 to December '99, 657 patients were retrospectively studied, An actuarial curve for the event reprogramming of the stimulation mode was drawn. RESULTS: The follow-up period ranged from 12 to 178 months (mean = 81 months). Eighty-two (12.4%) patients underwent reprogramming of the stimulation mode as follows: 63 (9.5%) changed to VVI,(R/C); 10 (1.5%) changed to DVI,C; 6 (0.9%) changed to VDD,C; and 3 (0.5%) changed to DOO. The causes for the reprogramming were as follows: arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker in 39 (37.6%) patients; loss of atrial sensitivity or capture, or both, in 39 (38.6%) patients; and microfracture of atrial electrode in 5 (4.9%) patients. The stimulation mode reprogramming free probability after 15 years was 58%. CONCLUSION: In a long-term follow-up, the atrioventricular pacemaker provided a low incidence of complications, a high probability of permanence in the DDD,C mode, and the most common cause of reprogramming was arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the incidence of intraventricular and atrioventricular conduction defects associated with acute myocardial infarction and the degree of in hospital mortality resulting from this condition during the era of thrombolytic therapy. METHODS: Observational study of a cohort of 929 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression. Was used. RESULTS: Logistic regression showed a greater incidence of bundle branch block in male sex (odds ratio = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.02-3.42), age over 70 years (odds ratio = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.68-5.00), anterior localization of the infarction (odds ratio = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.03-3.65). There was a greater incidence of complete atrioventricular block in inferior infarcts (odds ratio = 2.59, 95% CI 1.30-5.18) and the presence of cardiogenic shock (odds ratio = 3.90, 95% CI = 1.43-10.65). Use of a thrombolytic agent was associated with a tendency toward a lower occurrence of bundle branch block (odds ratio = 0.68) and a greater occurrence of complete atrioventricular block (odds ratio = 1.44). The presence of bundle branch block (odds ratio = 2.45 95% , CI = 1.14-5.28) and of complete atrioventricular block (odds ratio = 13.59, 95% CI = 5.43-33.98) was associated with a high and independent probability of inhospital death. CONCLUSION: During the current era of thrombolytic therapy and in this population, intraventricular disturbances of electrical conduction and complete atrioventricular block were associated with a high and independent risk of inhospital death during acute myocardial infarction.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics associated with the dropout of patients followed up in a Brazilian out patient clinic specializing in hypertension. METHODS: Planned prospective cohort study of patients who were prescribed an antihypertensive treatment after an extensive initial evaluation. The following parameters were analyzed: sex, age, educational level, duration of disease, pressure level used for classifying the patient, previous treatment, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, familial history of hypertension, and lesion in a target organ. RESULTS: We studied 945 hypertensive patients, 533 (56%) of whom dropped out of the follow-up. The mean age was 52.3±12.9 years. The highest probabilities of dropout of the follow-up were associated with current smoking, relative risk of 1.46 (1.04-2.06); educational level equal to or below 5 years of schooling, relative risk of 1.52 (1.11-2.08); and hypertension duration below 5 years, relative risk of 1.78 (1.28-2.48). Age increase was associated with a higher probability of follow-up with a relative risk of 0.98 (0.97-0.99). CONCLUSION: We identified a group at risk for dropping out the follow-up, which comprised patients with a lower educational level, a recent diagnosis of hypertension, and who were smokers. We think that measures assuring adherence to treatment should be directed to this group of patients.

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OBJECTIVE: Evaluate early and late evolution of patients submitted to primary coronary angioplasty for acute myocardial infarction. METHODS: A prospective study of 135 patients with acute myocardial infarction submitted to primary transcutaneous coronary angioplasty (PTCA). Success was defined as TIMI 3 flow and residual lesion <50%. We performed statistical analyses by univariated, multivariated methods and survival analyze by Kaplan-Meier. RESULTS: PTCA success rate was 78% and early mortality 18,5%. Killip classes III and IV was associated to higher mortality, odds ratio 22.9 (95% CI: 5,7 to 91,8) and inversely related to age <75 years (OR = 0,93; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.98). If we had chosen success flow as TIMI 2 and had excluded patients in Killip III/IV classes, success rate would be 86% and mortality 8%. The survival probability at the end or study, follow-up time 142 ± 114 days, was 80% and event free survival 35%. Greater survival was associated to stenting (OR = 0.09; 0.01 to 0.75) and univessel disease (OR = 0.21; 0.07 to 0.61). CONCLUSION: The success rate was lower and mortality was higher than randomized trials, however similar to that of non randomized studies. This demonstrated the efficacy of primary PTCA in our local conditions.