Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Damage on HfO2/SiO2 high-reflecting coatings under single and multiple Nd:YAG laser pulse irradiation

The single- and multi-shot damage behaviors of HfO2/SiO2 high-reflecting (HR) coatings under Nd:YAG laser exposure were investigated. Fundamental aspects of multi-shot laser damage, such as the instability due to pulse-to-pulse accumulation of absorption defect and structural defect effect, and the mechanism of laser induced defect generation, are considered. It was found in multi-shot damage, the main factors influencing laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) are accumulation of irreversible changes of structural defects and thermal stress that induced by thermal density fluctuations.

Human Endogenous Retrovirus HERV-Fc1 Association with Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are repetitive sequences derived from ancestral germ-line infections by exogenous retroviruses and different HERV families have been integrated in the genome. HERV-Fc1 in chromosome X has been previously associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in Northern European populations. Additionally, HERV-Fc1 RNA levels of expression have been found increased in plasma of MS patients with active disease. Considering the North-South latitude gradient in MS prevalence, we aimed to evaluate the role of HERV-Fc1on MS risk in three independent Spanish cohorts. Methods: A single nucleotide polymorphism near HERV-Fc1, rs391745, was genotyped by Taqman chemistry in a total of 2473 MS patients and 3031 ethnically matched controls, consecutively recruited from: Northern (569 patients and 980 controls), Central (883 patients and 692 controls) and Southern (1021 patients and 1359 controls) Spain. Our results were pooled in a meta-analysis with previously published data. Results: Significant associations of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism with MS were observed in two Spanish cohorts and the combined meta-analysis with previous data yielded a significant association [rs391745 C-allele carriers: p(M-H) = 0.0005; ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.27 (1.11-1.45)]. Concordantly to previous findings, when the analysis was restricted to relapsing remitting and secondary progressive MS samples, a slight enhancement in the strength of the association was observed [p(M-H) = 0.0003, ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.32 (1.14-1.53)]. Conclusion: Association of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism rs391745 with bout-onset MS susceptibility was confirmed in Southern European cohorts.

Guided-mode resonant grating filter with an antireflective surface for the multiple channels

In this paper, a new type of guided-mode resonant grating (GMRG) filter with an antireflective surface called the 'moth-eye structure' for the multiple channels is presented by using rigorous coupled-wave analysis (RCWA) and the S-matrix method. Long range, low sidebands and multiple channels are found when the GMRG filters with antireflective surface are illuminated with incident polarization light. It is calculated that the multiple channel phenomenon can be shown when the depth of antireflective surface is increased. Moreover, the wavelengths of the multiple channels can be easily shifted by changing the depth of the homogenous layer which is under the antireflective surface, and the optical properties of GMRG filters such as low sideband reflection and narrow band are not badly spoiled when the depth is changed.

Surface relief resonant Brewster niters with multiple channels

In this paper, a new type of resonant Brewster filters (RBF) with surface relief structure for the multiple channels is first presented by using the rigorous coupled-wave analysis and the S-matrix method. By tuning the depth of homogeneous layer which is under the surface relief structure, the multiple channels phenomenon is obtained. Long range, extremely low sidebands and multiple channels are found when the RBF with surface relief structure is illuminated with Transverse Magnetic incident polarization light near the Brewster angle calculated with the effective media theory of sub wavelength grating. Moreover, the wavelengths of RBF with surface relief structure can be easily shifted by changing the depth of homogeneous layer while its optical properties such as low sideband reflection and narrow band are not spoiled when the depth is changed. Furthermore, the variation of the grating thickness does not effectively change the resonant wavelength of RBF, but have a remarkable effect on its line width, which is very useful for designing such filters with different line widths at desired wavelength.

Imputação múltipla de dados faltantes: exemplo de aplicação no Estudo Pró-Saúde

Dados faltantes são um problema comum em estudos epidemiológicos e, dependendo da forma como ocorrem, as estimativas dos parâmetros de interesse podem estar enviesadas. A literatura aponta algumas técnicas para se lidar com a questão, e, a imputação múltipla vem recebendo destaque nos últimos anos. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados da utilização da imputação múltipla de dados no contexto do Estudo Pró-Saúde, um estudo longitudinal entre funcionários técnico-administrativos de uma universidade no Rio de Janeiro. No primeiro estudo, após simulação da ocorrência de dados faltantes, imputou-se a variável cor/raça das participantes, e aplicou-se um modelo de análise de sobrevivência previamente estabelecido, tendo como desfecho a história auto-relatada de miomas uterinos. Houve replicação do procedimento (100 vezes) para se determinar a distribuição dos coeficientes e erros-padrão das estimativas da variável de interesse. Apesar da natureza transversal dos dados aqui utilizados (informações da linha de base do Estudo Pró-Saúde, coletadas em 1999 e 2001), buscou-se resgatar a história do seguimento das participantes por meio de seus relatos, criando uma situação na qual a utilização do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox era possível. Nos cenários avaliados, a imputação demonstrou resultados satisfatórios, inclusive quando da avaliação de performance realizada. A técnica demonstrou um bom desempenho quando o mecanismo de ocorrência dos dados faltantes era do tipo MAR (Missing At Random) e o percentual de não-resposta era de 10%. Ao se imputar os dados e combinar as estimativas obtidas nos 10 bancos (m=10) gerados, o viés das estimativas era de 0,0011 para a categoria preta e 0,0015 para pardas, corroborando a eficiência da imputação neste cenário. Demais configurações também apresentaram resultados semelhantes. No segundo artigo, desenvolve-se um tutorial para aplicação da imputação múltipla em estudos epidemiológicos, que deverá facilitar a utilização da técnica por pesquisadores brasileiros ainda não familiarizados com o procedimento. São apresentados os passos básicos e decisões necessárias para se imputar um banco de dados, e um dos cenários utilizados no primeiro estudo é apresentado como exemplo de aplicação da técnica. Todas as análises foram conduzidas no programa estatístico R, versão 2.15 e os scripts utilizados são apresentados ao final do texto.

Distribution, movements, and habitat use of small striped bass (Morone saxatilis) across multiple spatial scales

Distribution, movements, and habitat use of small (<46 cm, juveniles and individuals of unknown maturity) striped bass (Morone saxatilis) were investigated with multiple techniques and at multiple spatial scales (surveys and tag-recapture in the estuary and ocean, and telemetry in the estuary) over multiple years to determine the frequency and duration of use of non-natal estuaries. These unique comparisons suggest, at least in New Jersey, that smaller individuals (<20 cm) may disperse from natal estuaries and arrive in non-natal estuaries early in life and take up residence for several years. During this period of estuarine residence, individuals spend all seasons primarily in the low salinity portions of the estuary. At larger sizes, they then leave these non-natal estuaries to begin coastal migrations with those individuals from nurseries in natal estuaries. These composite observations of frequency and duration of habitat use indicate that non-natal estuaries may provide important habitat for a portion of the striped bass population.