Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Uma estratégia aleatória chamada de MOSES

This paper we study a random strategy called MOSES, which was introduced in 1996 by Fran¸cois. Asymptotic results of this strategy; behavior of the stationary distributions of the chain associated to strategy, were derived by Fran¸cois, in 1998, of the theory of Freidlin and Wentzell [8]. Detailings of these results are in this work. Moreover, we noted that an alternative approach the convergence of this strategy is possible without making use of theory of Freidlin and Wentzell, yielding the visit almost certain of the strategy to uniform populations which contain the minimum. Some simulations in Matlab are presented in this work

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

Algoritmos genéticos canônico e elitista: uma abordagem comparativa

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Consequências da análise inadequada de um experimento fatorial 2k am parcelas subdivididas e sem replicação

Em experimentos com vários fatores em que alguns são mais difíceis de mudar que outros, pode ser inconveniente executar as provas do experimento em uma forma completamente aleatória, levando o pesquisador a criar naturalmente uma restrição na ordem de execução para poupar tempo ou reduzir os custos. Este tipo de restrição pode resultar em uma generalização do planejamento fatorial, conhecida como experimentos em parcelas subdivididas. Na prática, é comum executar um experimento em parcelas subdivididas e analisá-lo como se fosse completamente aleatorizado. O objetivo principal do trabalho é avaliar o impacto de analisar um experimento com restrição na aleatorização como completamente aleatorizado

Avaliação de Interações entre Professor e Alunos na Educação Matemática: ensino e aprendizagem de recursos pedagógicos

The aim of this paper is to discuss the teachers' need, as autonomous professionals, to evaluate their own pratice. Considering that Descriptive Functional Analysis (DFA) may be a pedagogical method for analysis, implementation, and change of teachers' mathematics teaching practices, the objective of the present research was to teach repertoires compatible with DFA to two mathematics teachers in elementary schools of São Paulo state. When teachers are responsible for evaluation and self evaluation, they recognize themselves as fundamental agents of transformation in education.

Princípio da Indução Matemática no Ensino Médio

We developed this dissertation aiming its in the process of teaching and learning of the Principle of Mathematical Induction and we set our efforts so that the students of the first year of the high school can assimilate the content having the knowledge seen in the basic education as foreknowledge. With this, we seek to awake in the student the interest on proofs, showing how much it s needed in examples that involve contents that he is already seen

Centros de especialidades odontológicas: avaliação da atenção de média complexidade na rede pública da Grande Natal

The Specialized Dental Care Centers (CEO) were developed to provide specialized dental care to the population, given the accumulated needs of health since the past. They must operate as units of reference for the Oral Health Team of the Primary Care, complementing the dental procedures performed at this level of attention. This study aims to assess the performance of CEOs of the Grande Natal Health Region as a strategy of Secondary Care consolidation in oral health through users, dentists and managers. For this to try to identify factors about access, hosting and satisfaction with the service, the actions developed in these centers, integration between the CEOs and the Basic Health Units (UBS), considering the reference and counter reference. Data were collected through semi-structured interview, conducted in four CEOs, among 253 users, 31 dentists and 4 managers. It was submitted to descriptive statistical analysis and to content analysis by software ALCESTE 4.5. The results revealed that the specialties of prosthesis, endodontics and surgery were the most sought by 38.2%, 23.7% and 21.7% of respondents, respectively. It was noticed that among users aged 18 to 30 years-old the greatest demand is for the specialty of endodontics (44.4%) and over 50 years for prosthesis (76.4%). There is a weakness in the reference and counter reference between UBS and CEO, because part of users goes directly to the centers without going before to the Primary Care and the majority does not want to return to the dentist of Health Unit. Satisfaction with care was reported by 90.9% of users, because they resolved the problems needed and were welcomed by the team. But the delay in care was the main factor for not satisfaction. For most dentists, some users could solve their problems completely in Primary Care, which shows the existence of unnecessary referrals to the CEOs, however they consider the existence of limiting factors in UBS that compromise the service. Most dentists revealed that some users do not get to CEOs with the basic dental treatment done, and some of them do not counter reference users. It can be concluded that the studied CEOs are being resolutive for those who access them, offering necessary care for the population, and if they don t account with this service, will encounter obstacles to resolution of problems, ranging seek care service in particular, in another public sector, or even giving up treatment. However, it is perceived the need of professionals training to understand the importance of the reference and counter reference, to that they can better serve and guide users. It is also important that cities offer better conditions to UBS and CEOs, so they can work together, with complementary actions of oral health, seeking full care, aiming for better resolution to the users' health problems

Modelagem matemática para o aproveitamento da biomassa residual de colheita da cana-de-açúcar com menor custo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)