957 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts


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The Oligocene-Miocene transition (OMT) (~23 Ma) is interpreted as a transient global cooling event, associated with a large-scale Antarctic ice sheet expansion. Here we present a 2.23 Myr long high-resolution (~3 kyr) benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope (d18O and d13C) record from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1334 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean), covering the interval from 21.91 to 24.14 Ma. To date, five other high-resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotope stratigraphies across this time interval have been published, showing a ~1 per mil increase in benthic foraminiferal d18O across the OMT. However, these records are still few and spatially limited and no clear understanding exists of the global versus local imprints. We show that trends and the amplitudes of change are similar at Site U1334 as in other high-resolution stable isotope records, suggesting that these represent global deep water signals. We create a benthic foraminiferal stable isotope stack across the OMT by combining Site U1334 with records from ODP Sites 926, 929, 1090, 1264, and 1218 to best approximate the global signal. We find that isotopic gradients between sites indicate interbasinal and intrabasinal variabilities in deep water masses and, in particular, note an offset between the equatorial Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific, suggesting that a distinct temperature gradient was present during the OMT between these deep water masses at low latitudes. A convergence in the d18O values between infaunal and epifaunal species occurs between 22.8 and 23.2 Ma, associated with the maximum d18O excursion at the OMT, suggesting climatic changes associated with the OMT had an effect on interspecies offsets of benthic foraminifera. Our data indicate a maximum glacioeustatic sea level change of ~50 m across the OMT.

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Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are potentially affecting marine ecosystems twofold, by warming and acidification. The rising amount of CO2 taken up by the ocean lowers the saturation state of calcium carbonate, complicating the formation of this key biomineral used by many marine organisms to build hard parts like skeletons or shells. Reliable time-series data of seawater pH are needed to evaluate the ongoing change and compare long-term trends and natural variability. For the high-latitude ocean, the region facing the strongest CO2 uptake, such time-series data are so far entirely lacking. Our study provides, to our knowledge, the first reconstruction of seasonal cycle and long-term trend in pH for a high-latitude ocean obtained from 2D images of stable boron isotopes from a coralline alga.

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With the bilingual volume International Investment Law in Latin America: Problems and Prospects, Attila Tanzi, Alessandra Asteriti, Rodrigo Polanco Lazo and Paolo Turrini provide a regional perspective on one of the liveliest branches of international law by situating it in one of the most dynamic areas of the world. Latin America has always had an ambivalent relationship with international investment law and, more recently, it has been the home of harsh and resolute criticisms, questioning the ultimate legitimacy of the regime. By bringing together distinguished scholars of this legal field, the volume analyses ongoing trends and draws lessons from the Continent’s past experiences while identifying possible solutions to the important challenges it faces.

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Green innovation, which enables us to extract energy from food crops, caused a food shortage in 2008. Countries suffering severe damage started to reconsider their agricultural policy with the aim of becoming more autonomous. The food price hike of the time looks like a reversal of the celebrated Singer-Prebisch thesis proposed in the 1950s. This paper examines the consequences of this trend on the comparative advantages and development strategies of developing countries. For that purpose, first, trends and short-run fluctuations in the prices of fuel and bio-energy crops are investigated. It is shown that the price series of fuels and the crops are synchronized only after the fuel extracting technology came into effect. Second, the reversal of the Singer-Prebisch thesis is underpinned by the generic form of an endogenous growth model developed by Rebelo (1991). It is shown that as an economy grows, appreciation of the non-reproducible, such as mineral resources and raw labor, over the reproducible, such as capital goods, is the norm rather than an anomaly. Third, the consequences of the food price hike and underlying capital accumulation on the development strategies of labor-abundant and low-income countries are explored. It is concluded that the impact of the food price hikes on the alteration of a development strategy is only incremental, without reinforcement from raw-labor-saving innovation. A case study of inventions by JUKI Corporation, a world-leader in the sewing machine market exemplifies the fact that, of all the major inventions the company have made, raw-labor-saving inventions have not dominated, although JUKI's machines are sold to one of the most raw-labor-intensive industries.

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Patent and trademark offices which run according to principles of new management have an inherent need for dependable forecasting data in planning capacity and service levels. The ability of the Spanish Office of Patents and Trademarks to carry out efficient planning of its resource needs requires the use of methods which allow it to predict the changes in the number of patent and trademark applications at different time horizons. The approach for the prediction of time series of Spanish patents and trademarks applications (1979e2009) was based on the use of different techniques of time series prediction in a short-term horizon. The methods used can be grouped into two specifics areas: regression models of trends and time series models. The results of this study show that it is possible to model the series of patents and trademarks applications with different models, especially ARIMA, with satisfactory model adjustment and relatively low error.