An analogue of the logistic map in two dimensions

This is a sequel to our earlier work on the modulated logistic map. Here, we first show that the map comes under the universality class of Feigenbaum. We then give evidence for the fact that our model can generate strange attractors in the unit square for an uncountable number of parameter values in the range μ∞<μ<1. Numerical plots of the attractor for several values of μ are given and the self-similar structure is explicity shown in one case. The fractal and information dimensions of the attractors for many values of μ are shown to be greater than one and the variation in their structure is analysed using the two Lyapunov exponents of the system. Our results suggest that the map can be considered as an analogue of the logistic map in two dimensions and may be useful in describing certain higher dimensional chaotic phenomena.

Use of mirage effect for the detection of phase transitions in solids

The phenomenon of mirage effect suffered by a He-Ne laser beam has been utilized to detect phase transitions in solids. It has been observed that anomalous fluctuations of large amplitude occur in the signal level near the transition temperature. The mean square value of the fluctuation is found to exhibit a well-defined peak at this point. Results of measurements made in the case of crystals of TGS ((NH2CH2COOH)3.H2SO4) and a ceramic sample (BaTiO3) are given to illustrate this technique.

An evaluation of Primary health care system in Kerala

The thesis entitled An Evaluation of Primary Health Care System in Kerala. The present study is intended to examine the working of primary health care system and its impact on the health status of people. The hypothesis tested in the thesis includes, a. The changes in the health profile require reallocation of resources of primary health care system, b. Rate of utilization depends on the quality of services provided by primary health centers, and c. There is a significant decline in the operational efficiency of the primary health care system. The major elements of primary health care stated in the report of AlmaAta International Conference on Primary Health Care (WHO, 1994)” is studied on the basis of the classification of the elements in to three: Preventive, Promotive, and Curative measures. Preventive measures include Maternal and Child Health Care including family Planning. Provision of water and sanitation is reviewed under promotive measures. Curative measures are studied using the disease profile of the study area. Collection of primary data was done through a sample survey, using pre-tested interview schedule of households of the study area. Multi stage random sampling design was used for selecting the sample. The design of the present study is both descriptive and analytical in nature. As far as the analytical tools are concerned, growth index, percentages, ratios, rates, time series analysis, analysis of variance, chi square test, Z test were used for analyzing the data. Present study revealed that no one in these areas was covered under any type of health insurance. Conclusion states that considering the present changes in the health profile, traditional pattern of resource allocation should be altered to meet the urgent health care needs of the people. Preventive and promotive measures like health education for giving awareness among people to change health habits, diet pattern, life style etc. are to be developed. Proper diagnosis and treatment of the disease at the beginning of the stage itself may help to cure majority of disease. For that, Public health policy must ensure the primary health care as enunciated at Alma- Ata international Conference. At the same time Public health is not to be treated as the sole responsibility of the government. Active community participation is an essential means to attain the goals.

Investigations on the Radiation Characteristics of Broadband Strip Loaded Slotted Microstrip Antennas

With the recent progress and rapid increase in mobile terminals, the design of antennas for small mobile terminals is acquiring great importance. In view of this situation, several design concepts are already been addressed by the scientists and engineers. Compactness and efficiency are the major criteria for mobile terminal antennas. The challenging task of the microwave scientists and engineers is to device compact printed radiating systems having broadband behavior, together with good efficiency. Printed antenna technology has received popularity among antenna scientists after the introduction of microstrip antenna in 1970s. The successors in this kind such as printed monopoles and planar inverted F are also equally important. Scientists and Engineers are trying to explore this technology as a viable coast effective solution for forthcoming microwave revolution. The transmission line perspectives of antennas are very interesting. The concept behind any electromagnetic radiator is simple. Any electromagnetic system with a discontinuity is radiating electromagnetic energy. The size, shape and the orientation of the discontinuities controls the radiation characteristics of the system such as radiation pattern, gain, polarization etc. It can be either resonant or non resonant structure. Microstrip antennas are suitable for wireless applications due to their low cost, high gain and ease of fabrication. But the major disadvantage of micro strip antennas is their inherent narrow bandwidth. A lot of techniques are introduced by the researchers all over the world to enhance the bandwidth of micro strip patch antennas. The thesis addresses an attempt to enhance the bandwidth of micro strip patch antennas by incorporating impedance matching strip as a part of the micro strip patch antenna. The first part of the thesis deals with the broadband operation of the tilted square slot and polygonal slot loaded square micro strip patch antennas. The resonant mechanisms are clearly mentioned using the simulation and experimental studies. The bandwidth of the polygonal slotted broadband patch antenna is again enhanced by implementing an Lstrip feed mechanism. In the second major part of the thesis, a novel gain enhancement technique for single band and broadband square micro strip patch antennas is achieved by implementing offset stacked configurations.

Personal finance of gulf-returned Keralites

The study is about the Gulf-returned Keralites and their personal financial planning during the Gulf-period. The researcher has examined the nature of their income, expenditure, savings and investments during the Gulf-period and after their return. Even though the Gulf-returned Keralites had remitted huge amounts to Kerala, it appears that the majority of them are struggling hard to make both ends meet. The sample consists of 318 Gulf-returned Keralites selected by employing stratified random sampling technique, from 5 districts. After a pilot study, the data was collected through personal interviews using a structured schedule. In order to find out whether the respondents had personal financial planning during the Gulf-period, the researcher has evaluated 15 elements of personal financeusing a five-point-scale rating technique. The hypotheses were tested using correlation, t-test, chi-square and ANOVA, through SPSS.

A Study on Futures Trading in Commodities With Special Reference to Rubber

Futures trading in Commodities has three specific economic functions viz. price discovery, hedging and reduction in volatility. Natural rubber possesses all the specifications required for futures trading. Commodity futures trading in India attained momentum after the starting of national level commodity exchanges in 2003. The success of futures trading depends upon effective price risk management, price discovery and reduced volatility which in turn depends upon the volume of trading. In the case of rubber futures market, the volume of trading depends upon the extent of participation by market players like growers, dealers, manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS). The extent of participation by market players has a direct bearing on their awareness level and their perception about futures trading. In the light of the above facts and the review of literature available on rubber futures market, it is felt that a study on rubber futures market is necessary to fill the research gap, with specific focus on (1) the awareness and perception of rubber futures market participants viz. (i) rubber growers, (ii) dealers, (iii) rubber product manufacturers, (iv) rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS) about futures trading and (2) whether the rubber futures market is fulfilling the economic functions of futures market viz. hedging, reduction in volatility and price discovery or not. The study is confined to growers, dealers, rubber goods manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and RPS in Kerala. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the study utilized secondary data for the period from 2003 to 2013 from different published sources like bulletins, newsletters, circulars from NMCE, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Warehousing Corporation and traders. The primary data required for this study were collected from rubber growers, rubber dealers, RPS & Rubber Marketing Co-operative Societies and rubber goods manufacturers in Kerala. Data pertaining to the awareness and perception of futures trading, participation in the futures trading, use of spot and futures prices and source of price information by dealers, farmers, manufacturers and cooperative societies also were collected. Statistical tools used for analysis include percentage, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Mann – Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Augmented Dickey – Fuller test statistic, t- statistic, Granger causality test, F- statistic, Johansen co – integration test, Trace statistic and Max –Eigen statistic. The study found that 71.5 per cent of the total hedges are effective and 28.5 per cent are ineffective for the period under study. It implies that futures market in rubber reduced the impact of price risks by approximately 71.5 per cent. Further, it is observed that, on 54.4 per cent occasions, the futures market exercised a stabilizing effect on the spot market, and on 45.6 per cent occasions futures trading exercised a destabilizing effect on the spot market. It implies that elasticity of expectation of futures market in rubber has a predominant stabilizing effect on spot prices. The market, as a whole, exhibits a bias in favour of long hedges. Spot price volatility of rubber during futures suspension period is more than that of the pre suspension period and post suspension period. There is a bi-directional association-ship or bi-directional causality or pair- wise causality between spot price and futures price of rubber. From the results of the hedging efficiency, spot price volatility, and price discovery, it can be concluded that rubber futures market fulfils all the economic functions expected from a commodity futures market. Thus in India, the future of rubber futures is Bright…!!!

On the Noise Model of Support Vector Machine Regression

Support Vector Machines Regression (SVMR) is a regression technique which has been recently introduced by V. Vapnik and his collaborators (Vapnik, 1995; Vapnik, Golowich and Smola, 1996). In SVMR the goodness of fit is measured not by the usual quadratic loss function (the mean square error), but by a different loss function called Vapnik"s $epsilon$- insensitive loss function, which is similar to the "robust" loss functions introduced by Huber (Huber, 1981). The quadratic loss function is well justified under the assumption of Gaussian additive noise. However, the noise model underlying the choice of Vapnik's loss function is less clear. In this paper the use of Vapnik's loss function is shown to be equivalent to a model of additive and Gaussian noise, where the variance and mean of the Gaussian are random variables. The probability distributions for the variance and mean will be stated explicitly. While this work is presented in the framework of SVMR, it can be extended to justify non-quadratic loss functions in any Maximum Likelihood or Maximum A Posteriori approach. It applies not only to Vapnik's loss function, but to a much broader class of loss functions.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

Factores de riesgo para evento coronario asociado a cirugias no cardiacas en mayores de 65 años

Objetivo: Determinar si la presencia de hipertensión arterial severa, rangos de edad diferentes, sexo masculino, dislipidemia en tratamiento, obesidad o múltiples predictores clínicos de riesgo, se asocian a mayor probabilidad de desarrollar falla cardiaca aguda, infarto agudo de miocardio no fatal o muerte de origen cardiovascular, en pacientes mayores de 65 años llevados a un procedimiento quirúrgico no cardiaco. Materiales y Métodos. Se realizó un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo de los pacientes llevados a cirugías no cardiacas en la Fundación Cardioinfantil entre el 1ro de enero de 2003 y el 31 de diciembre de 2005. Por análisis bivariado, prueba T student y CHI2 se determino la significancia estadística, con posterior regresión logística. Resultados: De 1.600 eventos analizados, el 9,2% presentaron complicaciones cardiovasculares, de las cuales el 40,1% fueron mortales. El tabaquismo, hipertensión arterial severa y un mayor número de predictores clínicos de riesgo, se asocian con desenlaces mortales y no mortales, con un riesgo relativo de 5,3 (IC 95%, 3,7-7,69), 4,27 (IC 95%; 2,56-7,11) y hasta 18,86 (IC 95%; 9,59-37,1) respectivamente. La dislipidemia, sexo masculino y edad avanzada se asocian con eventos no mortales, con un RR de 3,1 (IC 95%; 1,97-4,87), 1,67 (95%; 1,06-2,62) y 2,49 (IC 95%; 1,03-6,05) respectivamente. Conclusiones: los factores de riesgo para enfermedad coronaria de la población general son también factores de riesgo para complicaciones cardiovasculares perioperatorias en cirugías no cardiacas.

Factores de riesgo cardiovascular en trabajadores de una institución universitaria Bogotá D.C- Colombia

Introducción: la enfermedad cardiovascular es la primera causa de morbi-mortalidad en los países desarrollados, y en algunos en transición como es el caso de Colombia. Según la Organización Mundial de la Salud, las enfermedades cardiovasculares causan 17.5 millones de muertes en el mundo cada año y representan la mitad de todas las muertes en los Estados Unidos y otros países desarrollados. Objetivo: describir la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo cardiovascular en trabajadores de una Institución Universitaria de la ciudad de Bogotá D.C, con el fin de establecer estrategias de promoción de la salud y prevención de enfermedad cardiovascular. Metodología: estudio descriptivo de corte transversal, a través de una muestra de sujetos voluntarios con libre participación. Los trabajadores que decidieron participar se les aplico un cuestionario y se realizó una muestra de sangre por llenado capilar, empleando la técnica de Química Seca (Reflotrón). Acuden 751 trabajadores. Se utilizo un formato como método para recolección de información del examen físico, resultados de paraclínicos y antecedentes de factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Resultados: se realizo la encuesta a 751 trabajadores de las cuales la media de edad fue de 39,7 años. De la población evaluada el 70% pertenecía al género femenino y 30% al género masculino. El 38,6% presentó dislipidemia (colesterol y/o triglicéridos elevados) ;el 7% de la población presentaba diabetes; en diferentes grados de obesidad 6,2% y en sobrepeso se encontraba el 36,8% ; 11,1% son fumadores; y una cifra elevada del 58,7% llevaba una vida sedentaria. El análisis bivariado permitió identificar la relación entre los factores de riesgo y el tipo de trabajador, El valor obtenido se encuentra dentro del rango de mayor probabilidad según la distribución ji-cuadrado frente al factor de riesgo de dislipidemia y sedentarismo. Conclusión: la prevalencia de factores de riesgo en este estudio ha sido similar a la de otros estudios en demás países occidentales; se observó diferencia significativa en la vida sedentaria. Se notó un incremento de los factores de riesgo para las enfermedades cardiovasculares correlacionándolas con la edad, lo cual permite empezar a adoptar y modificar el estilo de vida para disminuir los riesgos de las enfermedades cardiovasculares.

Efectos cardiovasculares del hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo

La disfunción tiroidea tiene un impacto ya demostrado en el sistema cardiovascular. No se ha establecido si existe alguna asociación entre el hipotiroidismo y la presencia de complicaciones cardiovasculares como falla cardiaca, angina postinfarto, arritmias y muerte, en el contexto de un síndrome coronario agudo. Objetivo: Determinar la asociación entre la disfunción tiroidea (hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico) y la presencia de complicaciones cardiovasculares (falla cardiaca, arritmias, angina postinfarto y muerte) en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo que ingresaron a la Unidad de Cuidado Coronario de la Fundación Cardioinfantil (UCC – FCI). Materiales y métodos: Estudio analítico de cohorte, donde se evaluó la cohorte expuesta (129 pacientes) y no expuesta (258 pacientes) que ingresaron a la UCC de la FCI, con diagnóstico de síndrome coronario agudo (Angina inestable, IAM SEST o IAM CEST) entre el periodo de enero de 2009 y marzo de 2010. Se evaluaron las asociaciones mediante el riesgo relativo e intervalo de confianza y la prueba de chi cuadrado. En el análisis multivariado se utilizó el modelo de regresión logística incondicional. Resultados: Se estudiaron en total 387 pacientes, 258 eutiroideos y 129 pacientes con disfunción tiroidea (hipotiroismo clínico e hipotiroidismo subclínico). La distribución según el sexo en la cohorte de expuestos y no expuestos fue de 67% vs 66.3% y de mujeres 31% vs 33.7%. El desenlace más frecuente en el grupo de pacientes expuestos fue falla cardiaca (13%). Se evidenció que los pacientes con hipotiroidismo clínico o subclínico tienen el doble de riesgo de presentar falla cardiaca (RR=2.2 IC 95%:1.1-4.3) y 3 veces más riesgo de presentar fibrilación auricular (RR=4 IC 95%:1.22–13.0). No hubo diferencias estadísticamente significativas en los demás desenlaces. El análisis multivariado mostró que el hipotiroidismo es un factor de riesgo suficiente para producir falla cardiaca y fibrilación auricular. Conclusiones: El hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico aumentan el riesgo de desarrollar falla cardiaca y fibrilación auricular en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo.

Efectos cardiovasculares del hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo

Objetivo: determinar la asociación entre la disfunción tiroidea (hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico) y la presencia de complicaciones cardiovasculares (falla cardiaca, arritmias, angina postinfarto y muerte) en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo que ingresaron a la Unidad de Cuidado Coronario de un hospital de cuarto nivel en la ciudad de Bogotá, Colombia. Materiales y métodos: estudio analítico de cohorte prospectiva, donde se evaluó la cohorte expuesta (129 pacientes) y no expuesta (258 pacientes) que ingresaron a la UCC del hospital de cuarto nivel, con diagnóstico de síndrome coronario agudo: Angina inestable, IAM SEST (Infarto agudo del miocardio sin elevación del ST) o IAM CEST (Infarto agudo del miocardio con elevación del ST) entre el periodo de enero de 2009 y marzo de 2010. Se evaluaron las asociaciones mediante el riesgo relativo e intervalo de confianza y la prueba de chi cuadrado. En el análisis multivariado se utilizó el modelo de regresión logística incondicional. Resultados: Se estudiaron en total 387 pacientes, 258 eutiroideos y 129 pacientes con disfunción tiroidea (hipotiroidismo clínico e hipotiroidismo subclínico). La distribución según el sexo en la cohorte de expuestos y no expuestos fue de 67% vs 66.3% y de mujeres 31% vs 33.7%. El desenlace más frecuente en el grupo de pacientes expuestos fue falla cardiaca (13%). Se evidenció que los pacientes con hipotiroidismo clínico o subclínico tienen el doble de riesgo de presentar falla cardiaca (RR=2.2 IC 95%:1.1-4.3) y 3 veces más riesgo de presentar fibrilación auricular (RR=4 IC 95%:1.22–13.0). No hubo diferencias estadísticamente significativas en los demás desenlaces. El análisis multivariado mostró que el hipotiroidismo es un factor de riesgo suficiente para producir falla cardiaca y fibrilación auricular. Conclusiones: El hipotiroidismo clínico y subclínico aumentan el riesgo de desarrollar falla cardiaca y fibrilación auricular en pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo.

Diferencias en la sedación de pacientes pediátricos con dos formas de preparar Fentany

En la unidad de cuidado intensivo pediátrico (UCIP) es esencial garantizar una adecuada sedación y analgesia del paciente en ventilación mecánica para mejorar su adaptación, disminuyendo el estrés y ansiedad de la situación crítica. Una estrategia utilizada es la combinación de midazolam más fentanyl, sin embargo no se encuentra en la literatura estudios sobre la repercusión de la forma de preparación sobre los grados de sedación, objetivo principal de este estudio. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio analítico retrospectivo para evaluar las diferencias sobre la escala Comfort de sedación con dos medicamentos: fentanyl y midazolam diluidos en solución salina y sin diluir. Se revisaron 1321 historias clínicas desde enero del 2005 a junio del 2010; 70 cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión y se agruparon en 2 cohorte. La cohorte No 1 fueron los pacientes que recibieron medicamentos puros y la cohorte 2 aquellos que los recibieron diluidos en solución salina. Se hizo un análisis estadístico mediante chi cuadrado y regresión logística. Resultados: Se encontró una diferencia estadísticamente significativa a favor de medicamentos sin diluir en términos de grado de “sedación óptima” (p< 0.01). No hubo diferencias al evaluar tiempo de estancia en UCIP (p=0.67), duración de ventilación mecánica (p=0.15), número de medicamentos coadyuvantes utilizados (p=0.1) ni de la frecuencia de presentación del síndrome de abstinencia (p=0.77). Conclusión: Se encontró una diferencia en el número de pacientes que alcanzaron el puntaje óptimo en la escala Comfort utilizando la estrategia de sedación con medicamentos preparados sin diluir.

Prevalencia del deterioro cognitivo leve en pacientes adultos mayores con y sin hipertensión arterial

Study of cross section in 280 patients who attended the Internal Medicine consultation with ages between 60 and 85 years. The cognitive impairment was evaluated with the Neuropsi test developed in Mexico and validated for the Hispanic speaking population.(5) Once performed the data collection was made the statistical handling which included for the qualitative variables absolute and relative frequencies distribution in percentage; for the quantitative variables were made measures of central tendency as the average and the median and of dispersion the range and the standard deviation. Besides, for the association evaluation between the different factors of risk and cognitive impairment were used tests like the T of Student, the Pearson Chi-square or the Fisher’s exact test.(expected value <5)

Factores de riesgo para sobrepeso y obesidad en escolares en una población bogotana

Introducción: con las recientes tendencias de estilo de vida, no está claro qué factores son los contribuyentes más importantes en niños escolares para desarrollar sobrepeso- obesidad. Objetivo. Evaluar el impacto de los factores prenatales, perinatales y ambientales sobre el desarrollo de sobrepeso y obesidad en niños de 5 a 10 años en una población bogotana. Materiales y métodos: se realizó un estudio de casos y controles no pareado, empleando una encuesta a 528 niños, en quienes se identificaron los factores de riesgo. Se utilizó la prueba chi-cuadrado para evaluar las diferencia entre los niños normales y con sobrepeso-obesidad. Se realizó un modelo de regresión logística para evaluar los factores relevantes. Se determinaron los (OR) y sus intervalos de confianza (IC) del 95%. Resultados: se obtuvo una muestra de 528 niños. Se encontró que existen diferencias significativas en la ingesta calórica (p<0,001). El sobrepeso materno pregestacional fue de 23,2% en las madres de los casos y 16,5% en los controles (p<0,001). No hubo diferencias estadísticamente significativas con otros factores. La regresión logística arrojó datos significativos en dieta hipercalórica p =0,002 (OR =5,27; IC 95% 1,79-1,54) y el peso materno p =0,005 (OR =1,03, IC 95% 1,01-1,05). Se realizó una curva ROC para el cálculo de la capacidad predictiva del modelo y el área bajo la curva es de 0.64 (IC 95% 0.59-0.69). Conclusiones: se identificó como factores de riesgo para el desarrollo de sobrepeso-obesidad infantil en niños escolares, una dieta hipercalórica y sobrepeso materno pregestacional.