A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Experimental validation of a fracture model for pearlitic steel bars based on the cohesive zone model

Steel is, together with concrete, the most widely used material in civil engineering works. Not only its high strength, but also its ductility is of special interest, since it allows for more energy to be stored before failure. A better understanding of the material behaviour before failure may lead to better structural safety strategies.

Finite element simulation of sandwich panels of laminated plaster and rockwool under mixed mode fracture

Sandwich panels of laminated gypsum and rock wool have shown large pathology of cracking due to excessive slabs deflection. Currently the most widespread use of this material is as vertical elements of division or partition, with no structural function, what justifies that there are no studies on the mechanism of fracture and mechanical properties related to it. Therefore, and in order to reduce the cracking problem, it is necessary to progress in the simulation and prediction of the behaviour under tensile and shear load of such panels, although in typical applications have no structural responsability.

Cover cracking of the reinforced concrete due to rebar corrosion induced by chloride penetration

This paper is focused on the problem of the chloride-induced corrosion of the rebar in reinforced concrete, with special application to the slabs and decks of the bridges. High superficial concentrations may be usual in these structures (marine environments or de-icing salts in roadway bridges, e.g.). Like any aggressive agent such as water, gases or other dissolved ions, chloride induced deterioration is very conditioned by possibilities of transport through concrete mass.

Energía de fractura de morteros de cemento reforzados con fibras de vidrio (GRC)

En este trabajo se presenta el estudio de la energía de fractura de dos tipos de morteros de cemento reforzados con fibras de vidrio (GRC). El primer tipo es un GRC normal y en el segundo se ha realizado una adición de un 25% en peso de cemento de metacaolín de alta reactividad. El estudio de la energía de fractura de este tipo de material es de especial relevancia puesto que las normas que rigen su utilización no proporcionan datos sobre esta propiedad del material. Para solventar estos problemas se ha planteado una modificación de la recomendación RILEM TC-187-SOC. Se han modificado las dimensiones de las probetas y se han adaptado el resto de características. Los ensayos han mostrado como el GRC de control y el GRC con metacaolín tienen respectivamente una energía de 455 N/m y 1824 N/m.

BHLS, Bus, tram: tesi, antitesi, sintesi.

Il sistema di trasporto detto Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) è stato lanciato a Curitiba, in Brasile, nel 1974 per offrire un trasporto in bus efficiente ed efficace nella città in rapida espansione. Questa sperienza, insieme a quella di Ottawa (1983) e Quito (1994) ha dimostrato di essere una soluzione molto efficiente per il trasporto di massa. Per tutta l’Europa si sono iniziate a sviluppare esperienze simili, introducendo però un concetto diverso per quanto riguarda la qualità di servizio. Infatti sistemi come il “trunk network” nella Svezia, il Metrobus nella Germania oppure il BHNS (Bus à Aut. Niveau de Service) nella Francia trattano la qualità di servizio da una prospettiva più ampia che il BRT, dato che considerano aspetti come l’immagine ed il comfort oltre che velocità, frequenza e affidabilità. Questi nuovi sistemi BHLS (Buses with a High Quality of Service) consentono di combinare la qualità di servizio del tram con il costo basso e l’altà flessibilità dei sistema bus, fornendo soluzioni molto interessanti in termini di accessibilità e livelli di servizio, che permettono l’adattamento ai differenti contesti urbani (dimensione, popolazione, densità, ecc.). This article compares different European experiences with tramways and BHLS, especially from the economic point of view, considering their respective costs, benefits and advantages altogether.

Simulación de la rotura de barras de acero perlítico sometidas a tracción mediante un modelo de fisura cohesiva. Validación experimental

Las probetas cilíndricas fabricadas con materiales metálicos de elevada ductilidad, como el aluminio o el cobre, sometidas a tracción suelen presentar una rotura comúnmente denominada rotura en copa y cono, debido a su geometría. Este tipo de rotura se reproduce numéricamente con éxito mediante el modelo de Gurson-Tvergaard- Needleman, cuya formulación matemática se basa en el fenómeno físico de nucleación, crecimiento y coalescencia de microhuecos. A diferencia de dichos materiales, las barras de acero perlítico, material con una ductilidad apreciable, presentan un frente de rotura plano que no puede simularse correctamente con los modelos antes mencionados, apareciendo una región interior de daño que, en principio, también puede atribuirse a un fenómeno de nucleación y crecimiento de microhuecos, mientras que en el exterior aparece una zona cuya micrografía permite asociar su rotura a un mecanismo de clivaje. En trabajos anteriores los autores han presentado un elemento de intercara cohesivo dependiente de la triaxialidad de tensiones que, incorporado a un código de elementos finitos, permite reproducir de forma razonable el daño que se desarrolla en la región interior mencionada. En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de una campaña experimental que permite validar el modelo desarrollado. Para ello, se ensayan probetas de diferentes diámetros y se comparan los resultados con los obtenidos numéricamente, empleando tres bases extensométricas diferentes en cada uno de los diámetros. Los resultados numéricos se ajustan razonablemente bien a los obtenidos experimentalmente.The cylindrical specimens made of high-ductility metallic materials, such as aluminium and copper, usually fail showing a fracture surface commonly known as cup-cone fracture because of its shape. This type of fracture is successfully reproduced using the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model, which is based on the physical process of nucleation, growth and coalescence of microvoids. Unlike these materials, pearlitic steel bars, which are considerably ductile, show a flat fracture surface that cannot be correctly reproduced with the aforementioned models. In this flat fracture surface, a dark region can be observed in the centre of the specimen, which is the result of a process of nucleation and growth of microvoids, while in the rest of the fracture surface a different region can be identified, which a micrographic study reveals to be the result of a process of cleavage. In previous works, the authors presented a triaxiality-dependent cohesive interface element that, implemented in a finite element code, can reproduce in a reasonably accurate manner the damage that takes place in the dark region mentioned before. The results of an experimental campaign designed to validate the model are presented in this paper. For it, different diameter specimens are tested and these results are compared to those obtained with the numerical models, using three different initial lengths for the strain. Numerical results agree reasonably well with those obtained experimentally.

Study of the effect of four warm mix asphalt additives on bitumen modified with 15% crumb rubber

Due to a growing concern over global warming, the bituminous mixture industry is making a constant effort to diminish its emissions by reducing manufacturing and installation temperatures without compromising the mechanical properties of the bituminous mixtures. The use of mixtures with tyre rubber has demonstrated that these mixtures can be economical and ecological and that they improve the behaviour of the pavements. However, bituminous mixtures with a high rubber content present one major drawback: they require higher mixing and installation temperatures due to the elevated viscosity caused by the high rubber content and thus they produce larger amounts of greenhouse gas emissions than conventional bituminous mixtures. This article presents a study of the effect of four viscosity-reducing additives (Sasobit®, Asphaltan A®, Asphaltan B® and Licomont BS 100®) on a bitumen modified with 15% rubber. The results of this study indicate that these additives successfully reduce viscosity, increase the softening temperature and reduce penetration. However, they do not have a clear effect on the test for elastic recovery and ductility at 25 °C.

Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

X-ray microtomography analysis of the damage micromechanisms in 3D woven composites under low-velocity impact

3D woven composites reinforced with either S2 glass, carbon or a hybrid combination of both and containing either polyethylene or carbon z-yarns were tested under low-velocity impact. Different impact energies (in the range of 21–316 J) were used and the mechanical response (in terms of the impact strength and energy dissipated) was compared with that measured in high-performance, albeit standard, 2D laminates. It was found that the impact strength in both 2D and 3D materials was mainly dependent on the in-plane fiber fracture. Conversely, the energy absorption capability was primarily influenced by the presence of z-yarns, having the 3D composites dissipated over twice the energy than the 2D laminates, irrespective of their individual characteristics (fiber type, compaction degree, porosity, etc.). X-ray microtomography revealed that this improvement was due to the z-yarns, which delayed delamination and maintained the structural integrity of the laminate, promoting energy dissipation by tow splitting, intensive fiber breakage under the tup and formation of a plug by out-of-plane shear.

Numerical and experimental study of overtopping and failure of rockfill dams

This paper aims to present and validate a numerical technique for the simulation of the overtopping and onset of failure in rockfill dams due to mass sliding. This goal is achieved by coupling a fluid dynamic model for the simulation of the free surface and through-flow problems, with a numerical technique for the calculation of the rockfill response and deformation. Both the flow within the dam body and in its surroundings are taken into account. An extensive validation of the resulting computational method is performed by solving several failure problems on physical models of rockfill dams for which experimental results have been obtained by the authors.

Analysis of the discharge capacity of radial-gated spillways using CFD and ANN - Oliana Dam case study.

The paper focuses on the analysis of radial-gated spillways, which is carried out by the solution of a numerical model based on the finite element method (FEM). The Oliana Dam is considered as a case study and the discharge capacity is predicted both by the application of a level-set-based free-surface solver and by the use of traditional empirical formulations. The results of the analysis are then used for training an artificial neural network to allow real-time predictions of the discharge in any situation of energy head and gate opening within the operation range of the reservoir. The comparison of the results obtained with the different methods shows that numerical models such as the FEM can be useful as a predictive tool for the analysis of the hydraulic performance of radial-gated spillways.

Fracture micromechanisms and residual stresses of a highly resistant duplex stainless steel

The paper presents some preliminary results of an ongoing research intended to qualify a highly resistant duplex stainless steel wire as prestressing steel and, gets on insight on (he wires' fracture micromechanism and residual stresses field. SEM fractographic analysis of the stainless steel wires indicates an anisotropic fracture behavior in tension, in presence of surface flaws, attributed to the residual stresses generated through the fabrication process. The residual stresses magnitude influences the damage tolerance, its knowledge being a key issue in designating/qualifying the wires as prestressing steels.

Finite elastic deformations of transversely isotropic circular cylindrical tubes

We consider the finite radially symmetric deformation of a circular cylindrical tube of a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic material subject to axial stretch, radial deformation and torsion, supported by axial load, internal pressure and end moment. Two different directions of transverse isotropy are considered: the radial direction and an arbitrary direction in planes normal locally to the radial direction, the only directions for which the considered deformation is admissible in general. In the absence of body forces, formulas are obtained for the internal pressure, and the resultant axial load and torsional moment on the ends of the tube in respect of a general strain-energy function. For a specific material model of transversely isotropic elasticity, and material and geometrical parameters, numerical results are used to illustrate the dependence of the pressure, (reduced) axial load and moment on the radial stretch and a measure of the torsional deformation for a fixed value of the axial stretch.