957 resultados para Inflation rate forecast


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Tank cultivation of marine macroalgae involves air-agitation of the algal biomass and intermittent light conditions, i.e. periodic, short light exposure of the thalli in the range of 10 s at the water surface followed by plunging to low light or darkness at the tank bottom and recirculation back to the surface in the range of 1-2 min. Open questions relate to effects of surface irradiance on growth rate and yield in such tumble cultures and the possibility of chronic photoinhibition in full sunlight. A specially constructed shallow-depth tank combined with a dark tank allowed fast circulation times of approximately 5 s, at a density of 4.2 kg fresh weight (FW) m(-2) s(-1). Growth rate and yield of the red alga Palmaria palmata increased over a wide range of irradiances, with no signs of chronic photoinhibition, up to a growth-saturating irradiance of approximately 1600 mumol m(-2) s(-1) in yellowish light supplied by a sodium high pressure lamp at 16 h light per day. Maximum growth rate ranged at 12% FW d(-1), and maximum yield at 609 g FW m(-2) d(-1). This shows that high growth rates of individual thalli may be reached in a dense tumble culture, if high surface irradiances and short circulation times are supplied. Another aspect of intermittent light relates to possible changes of basic growth kinetics, as compared to continuous light. For this purpose on-line measurements of growth rate were performed with a daily light reduction by 50% in light-dark cycles of 1, 2 or 3 min duration during the daily light period. Growth rates at 10degreesC and 50 mumol photon m(-2) s- 1 dropped in all three intermittent light regimes during both the main light and dark periods and reached with all three periodicities approximately 50% of the control, with no apparent changes in basic growth kinetics, as compared to continuous light.

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Bagnold-type bed-load equations are widely used for the determination of sediment transport rate in marine environments. The accuracy of these equations depends upon the definition of the coefficient k(1) in the equations, which is a function of particle size. Hardisty (1983) has attempted to establish the relationship between k(1) and particle size, but there is an error in his analytical result. Our reanalysis of the original flume data results in new formulae for the coefficient. Furthermore, we found that the k(1) values should be derived using u(1) and u(1cr) data; the use of the vertical mean velocity in flumes to replace u(1) will lead to considerably higher k(1) values and overestimation of sediment transport rates.

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Well-dated, high-resolution records of planktonic foraminifera and oxygen isotopes from two sediment cores, A7 and E017, in the middle Okinawa Trough reveal strong and rapid millennial-scale climate changes since similar to 18 to 17 thousand years before present (kyr B.P.). Sedimentation rate shows a sudden drop at similar to 11.2 cal. kyr B.P. due to a rapid rise of sea level after the Younger Dryas (YD) and consequently submergence of the large continental shelf on the East China Sea (ECS) and the retreat of the estuary providing sediment to the basin. During the last deglaciation, the relative abundance of warm and cold species of planktonic foraminifera fluctuates strongly, consistent with the timing of sea surface temperature (SST) variations determined from Mg/Ca measurements of planktonic foraminifera from one of the two cores. These fluctuations are coeval with climate variation recorded in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediments, namely Heinrich event 1 (H1), Bolling-Allerod (B/A) and YD events. At about 9.4 kyr B.P., a sudden change in the relative abundance of shallow to deep planktonic species probably indicates a sudden strengthening of the Kuroshio Current in the Okinawa Trough, which was synchronous with a rapid sea-level rise at 9.5-9.2 kyr B.P. in the ECS, Yellow Sea (YS) and South China Sea (SCS). The abundance of planktonic foraminiferal species, together with Mg/Ca based SST, exhibits millennial-scale oscillations during the Holocene, with 7 cold events (at about 1.7, 2.3-4.6, 6.2, 7.3, 8.2, 9.6, 10.6 cal. kyr BP) superimposed on a Holocene warming trend. This Holocene trend, together with centennial-scale SST variations superimposed on the last deglacial trend, suggests that both high and low latitude influences affected the climatology of the Okinawa Trough. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A new expression for calculating suspended fine-sediment deposition rate is developed based on theoretic analysis and experiments. The resulting equation is applied to simulation of fine sediment deposition in the reclaimed land in the Hangzhou Bay, China. The hydrodynamic environment in this area is solved by use of a long wave model, which gives the 2D-velocity field and considers bathymetric changes due to fine sediment deposition. The expression is proved convenient to use in engineering practice, and the predicted deposition rate agrees with the annual data available from field measurements from the first year to the third year after the construction of the long groin as a reclaiming method.

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Dilution experiments were performed to examine the growth rate and grazing mortality rate of size-fractionated phytoplankton at three typical stations, inside and outside the bay, in the spring and summer of 2003 in the Jiaozhou Bay, China. in spring, the phytoplankton community structure was similar among the three stations, and was mainly composed of nanophytoplankton, such as, Skeletonema costatum and Cylindrotheca closterium. The structure became significantly different for the three stations in summer, when the dominant species at Stas A, B and C were Chaetoceros curvisetus, Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima, C. affinis, C. debilis, Coscinodiscus oculus-iridis and Paralia sulcata respectively. Tintinnopsis beroidea and T. tsingtaoensis were the dominant species in spring, whereas the microzooplankton was apparently dominated by Strombidium sp. in summer. Pico- and nanophytoplankton had a relatively greater growth rate than microzooplankton both in spring and summer. The growth rate and grazing mortality rate were 0.18 similar to 0.44 and 0.12 similar to 1.47 d(-1) for the total phytoplankton and 0.20 similar to 0.55 and 0.21 similar to 0.37 d-1 for nanophytoplankton in spring respectively. In summer, the growth rate and grazing mortality rate were 0.38 similar to 0.71 and 0.27 similar to 0.60 d-1 for the total phytoplankton and 0.11 similar to 1.18 and 0.41 similar to 0.72 d(-1) for nano- and microphytoplankton respectively. The carbon flux consumed by microzooplankton per day was 7.68 similar to 39.81 mg/m(3) in spring and 12.03 similar to 138.22 mg/m(3) in summer respectively. Microzooplankton ingested 17.56%similar to 92.19% of the phytoplankton standing stocks and 31.77%similar to 467.88% of the potential primary productivity in spring; in contrast, they ingested 34.60%similar to 83.04% of the phytoplankton standing stocks and 71.28%similar to 98.80% of the potential primary productivity in summer. Pico- and nanophytoplankton appeared to have relatively greater rates of growth and grazing mortality than microphytoplankton during the experimental period. The grazing rate of microzooplankton in summer was a little bit greater than that in spring because of the relatively higher incubation temperature and different dominant microzooplankton species. Microzooplankton preferred ingesting nanophytoplankton to microphytoplankton in spring, while they preferred ingesting picophytoplankton to nanophytoplankton and microphytoplankton in summer. Compared with the results of dilution experiments performed in various waters worldwide, the results are in the middle range.

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The growth and survival of the Zhikong scallop Chlamys farreri suspended in deep water of Haizhou Bay were studied from July 2007 to June 2008, and the biodeposition method was used to estimate the clearance rate of C. farreri under field conditions. Results showed that the scallop grew fast during all the culture time, with the exception of summer. The condition index of the scallop increased with time and reached the highest value in spring of the second year. The survival of scallops was 60.8 +/- A 3.9% at the end of this study, mortality occurring mainly during the summer and autumn of the first year. The clearance rate fluctuated obviously with season,with the highest value in September 2007, and the lowest value in March 2008. Factors accounting for variations in growth and clearance rate of scallops are also discussed.

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In order to study the effects of different nitrogen source and concentration on the growth rate and fatty acid composition, a marine microalga Ellipsoidion sp. with a high content of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) was cultured in media with different nitrogen sources and concentrations. During the pre-logarithmic phase, the alga grew faster with ammonium as N source than with nitrate, but the reverse applied during the post-logarithmic phase. The alga grew poorly in N-free medium or medium with urea as the sole N source. In the same growth phase, ammonium medium resulted in higher yield of total lipid, but the EPA yield did not differ significantly different from that using nitrate medium. The maximum growth rate occurred in medium containing 1.28 mmol L-1 sodium nitrate, while maximum EPA and total lipid contents were reached at 1.92 mmol L-1, when EPA accounted for 27.9% total fatty acids. The growth rate kept stable when NH4Cl ranged from 0.64 to 2.56 mmol L-1, and the maximum content of total lipid and EPA occurred in the medium with 2.56 mmol L-1 NH4Cl. The EPA content was higher in the pre- than post-logarithmic phase, though the total lipid content was lower. The highest EPA content expressed as percent total fatty acid was 27.9% in nitrate medium and and 39.0% in ammonium medium.

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The objectives were to investigate the effect of cryoprotectants on the hatching rate of red seabream embryos. Heart-beat embryos were immersed in: five permeable cryoprotectants, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), glycerol (Gly), methanol (MeOH), 1,2-propylene glycol (PG), and ethylene glycol (EG). in concentrations of 5-30% for 10, 30, or 60 min; and two non-permeable cryoprotectants: polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP), and sucrose (in concentrations of 5-20% for 10 or 30 min). The embryos were then washed and incubated in filtered seawater until hatching occurred. The hatching rate of the embryos treated with permeable cryoprotectants decreased (P < 0.05) with increased concentration and duration of exposure. In addition, PG was the least toxic permeable cryoprotectant, followed by DMSO and EG, whereas Gly and MeOH were the most toxic. At a concentration of 15% and 30 min exposure, the hatching rate of the embryos immersed in PG was 93.3 +/- 7.0% (mean +/- S.D.), however. in DMSO. EG, Gly. and MeOH, it was 82.7 +/- 10.4, 22.0 +/- 5.7, 0.0 +/- 0.0, and 0.0 +/- 0.0%, respectively. Hatching rate of embryos treated with PVP decreased (P < 0.05) with the increase of concentration and exposure time, whereas for embryos treated with sucrose, there was no significant decrease in comparison with the control at the concentrations used. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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With the continuously proceeding of petroleum exploratory development in China, exploratory development becomes more and more difficult. For increasing reserve volume and production, lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir has been the most workable, potential and universality exploration targets. In the past, Dagang Oil Field use the complicated fault reservoir theory as the guide, develop and form a suit of matching construction and instrument in prospecting complicated fault reservoir that reach top of exploration industry in China. But the research of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir is not much, which affects the exploitation progress of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir. In this thesis, is object, through the depth study of lithologic deposition in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, a suit of holographic fine reservoir bed forecasting techniques is built up and finally gets following main results: 1. Applying geology, seism, drilling, logging and other information to sensitivity preferences, geological model, inversion and integrated stratum evaluation, realizing the method and flow of refined multi-information stratum forecast. 2. Built up a full three dimensional fine structural interpretation method: in view of r problem of accurately demarcating 90% inclined well, propose a inclined well air space demarcating method, make bed demarcating more exactly; in view of problem of faults demarcating and combination in seismic interpretation, propose a computational method of seismic interference based on wavelet translation, make identify the fault in different level more dependable and reasonable; for exactly identifying structural attitude, propose a velocity modeling method under multi-well restriction, make structural attitude closer to the facts. 3. Built up a high accuracy reservoir bed inversion method: in view of problem in exactly identifying reservoir and nonreservoir with conventional wave impedance inversion method in this place, propose a reservoir log response characteristic analysis and sensible log parameter inversion method. ①analysis log response of reservoir and nonreservoir in region of interest, make definite the most sensible log parameter in identifying reservoir and nonreservoir in this region; ②make sensible log parameter inversion based on wave impedance inversion, to improve inversion accuracy, the thickness of recognizable reservoir bed reach 4-5m. 4. Built up a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit: in view of difficulty that in lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir making reservoir space characteristic clear by using structural map and reservoir forecasting techniques once only, propose a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit. In other words, based on development conceptual design, forcast reservoir of different time, namely multiple 3D reservoir forcasting in time queue, each time the accuracy degree of reservoir forcasting is improved since apply the new well material, thereby achieve high quality and highly efficient in exploratory development. During exploratory development lithologic depositin in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, there are thirteen wells get 100% success rate, which sufficiently proves that this suit of method is scientific and effective.

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The Jinchuan Nickel Mine is the largest underground mine with cut-and-fill mining in China. It is very difficult to be exploited for very low safety stability of rock mass caused by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rock mass and high stress. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement、mechanics of shaft deformation and destroy were analyzed based on the collection of date, the detailed field engineering investigations, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring result of ground surface movement, there are different ground movement characteristics among the three Mine area of Jinchuan Nickel Mine. In No. 2 Mine area, the ground movement funnel with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the up faulted block than in the down faulted block, and the centre of ground movement is moving along the up faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. Moreover, the tunnels in the corresponding area with the centre of ground movement are damaged seriously. In Longshou Mine area, the ground movement funnel is also developing, but the moving path and the nonlinear characters are more sophisticated because of the long-term effects of open excavating and the effects of underground mining together. In No. 3 Mine area, the underground mining impact on surface is not serious for the time of mining activity is not for long, but the ground movement funnel is also forming now. The underground mining has caused widespread land subsidence in Jinchuan Nickel Mine area, but the phenomena of surface raise appeared in some partial areas of Longshou Mine area and No. 3 Mine area. Analysis proved that the reason for the open pit bottom raise is the slope deformation activation caused by the excavation from open pit into underground mine; and that the raise of surface in No.3 Mine area is caused by the effect of elastic foundation due to underground mining. Although the GPS Monitoring results show the amount of subsidence is increasing constantly, the subsidence rate has a descending tendency with fluctuation in Jinchuan No. 2 Mine area. The subsidence rate curve is a time function and exists an extreme point, the rate increasing before extreme point and decreasing after the extreme point ,but the scale of decreasing rate will be very small after the rate decreasing up to a certain degree, moreover, the characteristics is different among different areas, which have some relation with the distance to the mining section and the dip of the ore body. ArcView is GIS software, which we adopted as a development platform, and made secondary development by its development language “avenue”, through which we developed a ground movement analysis and forecast System for Jinchuan Nickel Mine, which contain three modules : management of ground movement information; analysis and evaluation of ground movement; and ground movement forecast. In the module of evaluation, using the technique of MATLAB6.5 program with VB6.0, the system can achieve the ANN prediction model for GPS monitoring data, data preparation results analysis and model integrated was realized by Avenue programming. Finally, the author analyzed the mechanical of deformation and destroy of the No. 14 shaft, and its repair and artificial-support effectiveness also given detailed demonstration in various aspect. The result showed that the reason for the destroy of No. 14 shaft is underground mining, and being the case, the destroy of the shaft also has its special features, which mainly contains forked stress contour for mining steep ore and fault effect caused by mining activities. The repair and artificial-support played some restrictions on the rock mass movement and deformation, but did not show a strong or marked effect. With the increasing of mining depth and large-scale, the closure rock of the shaft will still deformed, even be destroyed.

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With the variations of solar activity, solar EUV and X-ray radiations change over different timescales (e.g., from solar cycle variation to solar flare burst). Since solar EUV and X-ray radiations are the primary energy sources for the ionosphere, theirs variations undoubtedly produce significant and complicated effects on the ionosphere. So the variations of solar activity significantly affect the ionosphere. It is essential for both ionospheric theory and applications to study solar activity effects on the ionosphere. The study about solar activity variations of the ionosphere is an important part of the ionospheric climatology. It can enhance the understanding for the basic processes in the ionosphere, ionospheric structure and its change, ionosphere/thermosphere coupling, and so on. As for applications, people need sufficient knowledges about solar activity variations of the ionosphere in order to improve ionospheric models so that more accurate forecast for the ionospheric environments can be made. Presently, the whole image about the modalities of ionospheric solar activity variations is still unknown, and related mechanisms still cannot be well understood. This paper is about the effects of the 11-year change in solar activity to the low- and mid-latitude ionosphere. We use multi-type ionospheric observations and model to investigate solar activity effects on the electron density and ionospheric spatial structure, and we focus on discussing some related mechanisms. The main works are as follows: Firstly, solar activity variations of ionospheric peak electron density (NmF2) around 1400 LT were investigated using ionosonde observations in the 120°E sector. The result shows that the variation trend of NmF2 with F107 depends on latitudes and seasons. There is obvious saturation trend in low latitudes in all seasons; while in middle latitudes, NmF2 increases linearly with F107 in winter but saturates with F107 at higher solar activity levels in the other seasons. We calculated the photochemical equilibrium electron density to discuss the effects induced by the changes of neutral atmosphere and dynamics processes on the solar activity variations of NmF2. We found that: (1) Seasonal variation of neutral atmosphere plays an important role in the seasonal difference of the solar activity variations of NmF2 in middle latitudes. (2) Less [O]/[N2] and higher neutral temperature are important for the saturation effect in summer, and the increase of vibrational excited N2 is also important for the saturation effect. (3) Dynamics processes can significantly weaken the increase of NmF2 when solar activity enhances, which is also a necessary factor for the saturation effect. Secondly, solar activity variations of nighttime NmF2 were investigated using ionosonde observations in the 120°E sector. The result shows that the variation trends of NmF2 with F107 in nighttime are different from that in daytime in some cases, and the nighttime variation trends depend on seasons. There is linear increase trend in equinox nighttime, and saturation trend in summer nighttime, while the increase rate of NmF2 with F107 increases when solar activity enhances in winter nighttime (we term it with “amplification trend”). We discussed the possible mechanisms which affect the solar activity variations of nighttime NmF2. The primary conclusions are as follows: (1) In the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region, the plasma influx induced by the pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) results in the change of the variation trend between NmF2 and F107 from “saturation” to “linear” after sunset in equinoxes and winter; while the recombination process at the F2-peak is the primary factor that affects the variation trend of NmF2 with F107 in middle latitudes. (2) The recombination coefficient at the F2-peak height reaches its maximum at moderate solar activity level in winter nighttime, which induces NmF2 attenuates more quickly at moderate solar activity level. This is the main reason for the amplification trend. (3) The change of the recombination process at the F2-peak with solar activity depends on the increases of neutral parameters (temperature, density et al.) and the F2-peak height (hmF2). The seasonal differences in the changes of neutral atmosphere and hmF2 with solar activity are the primary reasons for the seasonal difference in the variation trend of nighttime NmF2 with F107. Finally, we investigated the solar activity dependence of the topside ionosphere in low latitudes using ROCSAT-1 satellite (at 600 km altitude) observations. The primary results and conclusions are as follows: (1) Latitudinal distribution of the plasma density is local time, seasonal, and solar activity dependent. In daytime, there is a plasma density peak at the dip equator. The peak is obviously enhanced at high solar activity level, and the strength of the peak strongly depends on seasons. While at sunset, two profound plasma density peaks (double-peak structure) are found in solar maximum equinox months. (2) Local time dependence of the latitudinal distribution is due to the local time variation of the equatorial dynamics processes. Double-peak structure is attributed to the fountain effect induced by strong PRE. Daytime peak enhances with solar activity since the plasma density increases with solar activity more strongly at the dip equator due to the equatorial vertical drift, and its seasonal dependence is mainly due to the seasonal variations of neutral density and the equatorial vertical drift. In the sunset sector, seasonal and solar activity dependences of the latitudinal distribution are related to the seasonal and solar activity variations of PRE. (3) The variation trend of the plasma density with solar activity shows local time, seasonal, and latitudinal differences. That is different from the changeless amplification trend at the DMSP altitude (840 km). Profound saturation effect is found in the dip equator region at equinox sunset. This saturation effect in the topside ionosphere is realated to the increase of PRE with solar activity. Solar activity variation trend of the topside plasma density was discussed quantitatively by Chapman-α function. The result shows that the effect induced by the change of the scale height is dominant at high altitudes; while the variation trend of ROCSAT-1 plasma density with solar activity is suggested to be related to the changes of the peak height, the scale height, and the peak electron density with solar activity.

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Rockmass movement due to mining steep metallic ore body is a considerable question in the surface movement and deformation issue caused by underground mining. Research on coal mining induced rockmass movement and its prediction problem have been performed for a long-term, and have achieved great progress at home and abroad. However, the rockmass movement caused by mining steep metal mine is distinctivly different from coal seam mining.. Existing surface movement laws and deformation prediction methods are not applicable to the rockmass movement caused by mining steep metal mine. So far the home and abroad research to this theory is presently at an early stage, and there isn’t mature theory or practical prediction method, which made a great impact on production. In this paper, the research object—Jinchuan nickel mine, which is typical steep metal mine, characterized by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rockmass, high geostress, and prominent engineering stability problems. In addition, backfill mining method is used in the mine, the features of rockmass movement caused by this mining method are also different from other mining methods. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement, deformation and destroy mechanism, and its prediction were analyzed based on the collection of data, detailed in-sit engineering geology survey, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring of ground surface movement, ground subsidence basin with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the upper faulted block than in the lower faulted block, and the center of ground movement is moving along the upper faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. During the past half and seven years, the largest settlement has amounted to 1287.5mm, and corresponding horizontal displacement has amounted to 664.6mm. On the ground surface, two fissure belts show a fast-growing trend of closure. To sum up, mining steep metal mine with backfill method also exist the same serious problem of rockmass movement hazards. Fault, as a low intensity zone in rockmass, when it located within the region of mining influence, the change of potential energy mainly consumed in fault deformation associated with rockmass structure surface friction, which is the essence of displacement and stress barrier effects characterized by fault rupture zone. when steep fault located in the tensile deformation region incurred by underground excavation, no matter excavation in hangingwall or in footwall of the fault, there will be additional tensile stress on the vertical fault plane and decrease in the shear strength, and always showing characteristics of normal fault slip, which is the main reason of fault escarpment appeared on the ground surface. The No.14 shaft deformation and failure is triggered by fault activation, which showed with sidewall move, rupture, and break down features as the main form of a concentrated expression of fault effects. The size and orientation of principal stress in surrounding rock changed regularly with mining; therefore, roadway deformation and damage at different stages have different characteristics and distribution models. During the process of mining, low-intensity weak structures surface always showed the most obvious reaction, accompany with surface normal stress decrease and shear strength bring down, to some extent, occurred with relative slide and deformation. Meanwhile, the impact of mining is a relatively long process, making the structure surface effect of roadway deformation and damage more prominent than others under the influence of mining. Roadway surrounding rockmass deformation caused by the change of strain energy density field after excavation mainly belongs to elastic deformation, and the correspondented damage mainly belongs to brittle rupture, in this circumstance, surrounding rockmass will not appear large deformation. The large deformation of surrounding rockmass can only be the deformation associated with structure surface friction or the plastic deformation of itself, which mainly caused by the permanent self-weigh volume force,and long-term effect of mining led to the durability of this deformation Good pitting fill effect and supporting effect of backfill, as well as the friction of rockmass structure surface lead to obvious macro-rockmass movement with long-lag characteristics. In addition, the loss of original intensity and new structure surface arisen increased flexibility in rockmass and fill deformation in structure surface, which made the time required for rockmass potential energy translate into deformation work associated with plastic deformation and structure surface friction consumed much, and to a large extent, eliminated the time needed to do those plastic work during repeated mining, all of which are the fundamental reason of rockmass movement aftereffect more significant than before. Mining steep deposits in high tectonic stress area and in gravity stress area have different movement laws and deformation mechanism. The steep deposit, when the vertical size of the mining areas is smaller than the horizontal size of the orebody, no matter mining in gravity stress area or in high tectonic stress area, they have similar features of ground movement with mining horizontal orebody; contrarily, there will appear double settlement centers on the ground surface under the condition of mining in high tectonic stress area, while there will always be a single center under the other condition. Meanwhile the ground movement lever, scale of mining influence area and macro features of ground movement, deformation and fracture are also different from mining in gravity stress area, and the fundamental reason lies in the impact of orientation of the maximum principal stress on rock movement features in in-site rock stress field. When mining thick and steep deposit, the ground surface movement and deformation characteristic curves are significantly different from excavating the horizontal ore bed and thin steep deposit. According to the features of rockmass movement rate, the development process of mining-induced rockmass movement is divided into three stages: raising stage, steadily stage and gradually decay stage. Considering the actual exploitation situation, GPS monitoring results and macro-characteristics of surface movement, the current subsidence pattern of Jinchuan No.2 mine is in the early stage of development. Based on analysis of surface movement rate, surface subsidence rate increase rapidly when mining in double lever at the same time, and reach its peak until the exploitation model ended. When double lever mining translate into single, production decreased, surface subsidence rate suddenly start to reduce and maintain a relatively low value, and the largest subsidence center will slowly move along with the hangingwall ore body direction with increasing depth of mining, at the same time, the scope and extent of subsidence in footwall ore body will begin magnify, and a sub-settlement center will appear on ground surface, accompanied with the development and closure trend of ground fissure, the surrounding rockmass of shaft and roadway will be confronted to more frequent and severe deformation and failure, and which will have a negative impact on the overall stability of No.2 mine mining. On the premise of continuity of rockmass movement, gray system model can be used in ground rockmass movement prediction for good results. Under the condition of backfill mining step by step, the loose effect of compact status of the hard, broken rockmass led to lower energy release rate, although surrounding rockmass has high elastic energy, loose and damage occurred in the horizontal ore body, which made the mining process safety without any large geological hazards. During the period of mining the horizontal ore body to end, in view of its special “residual support role”, there will be no large scale rockmass movement hazards. Since ground surface movement mainly related to the intensity of mining speed and backfill effect, on the premise of constant mining speed, during the period of mining the horizontal ore body to end, the rate of ground surface rockmass movement and deformation won’t have sudden change.