Chaos and crises in a model for cooperative hunting: A symbolic dynamics approach

In this work we investigate the population dynamics of cooperative hunting extending the McCann and Yodzis model for a three-species food chain system with a predator, a prey, and a resource species. The new model considers that a given fraction sigma of predators cooperates in prey's hunting, while the rest of the population 1-sigma hunts without cooperation. We use the theory of symbolic dynamics to study the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of the kneading sequences associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the dynamics of the species under several degrees of cooperative hunting. Our model also allows us to investigate the so-called deterministic extinction via chaotic crisis and transient chaos in the framework of cooperative hunting. The symbolic sequences allow us to identify a critical boundary in the parameter spaces (K, C-0) and (K, sigma) which separates two scenarios: (i) all-species coexistence and (ii) predator's extinction via chaotic crisis. We show that the crisis value of the carrying capacity K-c decreases at increasing sigma, indicating that predator's populations with high degree of cooperative hunting are more sensitive to the chaotic crises. We also show that the control method of Dhamala and Lai [Phys. Rev. E 59, 1646 (1999)] can sustain the chaotic behavior after the crisis for systems with cooperative hunting. We finally analyze and quantify the inner structure of the target regions obtained with this control method for wider parameter values beyond the crisis, showing a power law dependence of the extinction transients on such critical parameters.

Is stock market volatility persistent? A fractionally integrated approach

This paper seeks to study the persistence in the G7’s stock market volatility, which is carried out using the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. The data set consists of the daily returns of the S&P/TSX 60, CAC 40, DAX 30, MIB 30, NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 indexes over the period 1999-2009. The results evidences long memory in volatility, which is more pronounced in Germany, Italy and France. On the other hand, Japan appears as the country where this phenomenon is less obvious; nevertheless, the persistence prevails but with minor intensity.

A multifactor approach to the social discount rate

This work focuses on the appraisal of public and environmental projects and, more specifically, on the calculation of the social discount rate (SDR) for this kind of very long-term investment projects. As a rule, we can state that the instantaneous discount rate must be equal to the hazard rate of the public good or to the mortality rate of the population that the project is intended to. The hazard can be due to technical failures of the system, but, in this paper, we are going to consider different independent variables that can cause the hazard. That is, we are going to consider a multivariate hazard rate. In our empirical application, the Spanish forest surface will be the system and the forest fire will be the fail that can be caused by several factors. The aim of this work is to integrate the different variables that produce the fail in the calculation of the SDR from a multivariate hazard rate approach.

The Bambuí health and ageing study (BHAS): methodological approach and preliminary results of a population-based cohort study of the elderly in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

Thinking over b‐learning strategy: the MIPO model approach

This article describes the main research results in a new methodology, in which the stages and strategies of the technology integration process are identified and described. A set of principles and recommendations are therefore presented. The MIPO model described in this paper is a result of the effort made regarding the understanding of the main success features of good practices, in the web environment, integrated in the information systems/information technology context. The initial model has been created, based on experiences and literature review. After that, it was tested in the information and technology system units at higher school and also adapted as a result of four cycles of an actionresearch work combined with a case study research. The information, concepts and procedures presented here give support to teachers and instructors, instructional designers and planning teams – anyone who wants to develop effective b‐learning instructions.

Contact angle of a hemispherical bubble: An analytical approach

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric Plateau border along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat wall, by analytically integrating Laplace's equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of small Plateau border sizes. This method has the advantage that it provides closed-form expressions for the positions and orientations of the Plateau border surfaces. Results are in very good overall agreement with those obtained from a numerical solution procedure, and are consistent with experimental data. In particular we find that the effect of gravity on Plateau border shape is relatively small for typical bubble sizes, leading to a widening of the Plateau border for sessile bubbles and to a narrowing for pendant bubbles. The contact angle of the bubble is found to depend even more weakly on gravity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Representations of gender in the writings of St. Francis Xavier: an interdisciplinary approach

Francis Xavier’s Letters and Writings are eloquent narratives of a journey that absorbed the Saint’s entire life. His experiences and idiosyncrasies, values and categorizations are presented in a clear literate discourse. The missionary is rarely neutral in his opinions as he sustains his unmistakable and omnipresent objective: the conversion of peoples and the expansion of the Society of Jesus. Parallel with this objective, the reader is introduced to the individuals that Xavier meets or that he summons in his epistolary discourse. Letters and Writings presents us with a structured narrative peopled by all those who are subject to and objects of Xavier’s apostolic mission, by helpful and unhelpful persons of influence, and by leading and secondary actors. What is then the position of women, in the collective sense as well as in the individual sense, in the travels and goals that are the centre of Xavier’s Letters and Writings? What is the role of women, that secondary and suppressed term in the man/woman binomial, a dichotomy similar to the civilized/savage and European/native binomials that punctuate Xavier’s narratives and the historic context of his letters? Women are not absent from his writings, but it would be naïve to argue in favour of the author’s misogyny as much as of his “profound knowledge of the female heart”, to quote from Paulo Durão in "Women in the Letters of Saint Francis Xavier" (1952), the only paper on this subject published so far. We denote four great categories of women in the Letters and Writings: European Women, Converted Women, Women Who Profess another Religion, and Women as the Agents and Objects of Sin, the latter of which traverses the other three categories. They all depend on the context, circumstances and judgements of value that the author chooses to highlight and articulate.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A aplicação da CIF nos programas educativos individualizados das crianças e jardim de infância

A Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Crianças e Jovens (CIF-CJ), usando uma linguagem comum e universal, permite a comunicação entre os diferentes profissionais e investigadores. Sustenta-se numa abordagem biopsicossocial que pressupõe um processo interactivo da participação com os contextos de vida da criança, classificando a criança quanto à sua funcionalidade, definindo perfis de funcionalidade. A reestruturação do Programa Educativo Individual (PEI) através do decreto-lei 3/2008, passa a incluir uma terminologia da CIF-CJ, para a determinação do Perfil de Funcionalidade e Plano de Intervenção. Devido à sua pertinência e actualidade foi objectivo deste estudo fazer a análise da aplicação da CIF nos Programas Educativos Individualizados das crianças da Creche e Jardim de Infância do Cabedelo, verificando se os conteúdos dos PEI das crianças tem ligação com as componentes da CIF-CJ, se são elaborados de modo a englobarem predominantemente os constructos ligados à Actividade e Participação e ao Ambiente segundo o modelo biopsicossocial, e se os constructos identificados no Perfil de Funcionalidade surgem como alvo no Plano de Intervenção. Seleccionámos uma amostra de 15 crianças com Necessidades Educativas Especiais (NEE) com idades entre os dois e os seis anos de idade. A metodologia foi mista iniciando com um estudo qualitativo seguido de uma metodologia quantitativa. Assim procedeu-se a uma análise de conteúdo dos PEI’s, utilizando as linking rules para os relacionar com a CIF-CJ, e posteriormente efectuou-se uma análise de frequências com recurso à estatística descritiva. Os resultados indicam existir uma ligação dos conteúdos dos PEI’s com os componentes da CIF-CJ. O Perfil de Funcionalidade e Plano de Intervenção centram-se na componente Actividades e Participação sendo os Factores do Ambiente menos citados em ambos os processos. Em relação à existência de correspondência dos constructos do Perfil de Funcionalidade com o Plano de Intervenção não há uma correspondência directa em grande parte dos códigos, havendo no entanto uma correspondência na mesma área ou em áreas diferentes mas relacionáveis entre si.

A Service Integration Platform for Collaborative Networks

Integrated manufacturing constitutes a complex system made of heterogeneous information and control subsystems. Those subsystems are not designed to the cooperation. Typically each subsystem automates specific processes, and establishes closed application domains, therefore it is very difficult to integrate it with other subsystems in order to respond to the needed process dynamics. Furthermore, to cope with ever growing marketcompetition and demands, it is necessary for manufacturing/enterprise systems to increase their responsiveness based on up-to-date knowledge and in-time data gathered from the diverse information and control systems. These have created new challenges for manufacturing sector, and even bigger challenges for collaborative manufacturing. The growing complexity of the information and communication technologies when coping with innovative business services based on collaborative contributions from multiple stakeholders, requires novel and multidisciplinary approaches. Service orientation is a strategic approach to deal with such complexity, and various stakeholders' information systems. Services or more precisely the autonomous computational agents implementing the services, provide an architectural pattern able to cope with the needs of integrated and distributed collaborative solutions. This paper proposes a service-oriented framework, aiming to support a virtual organizations breeding environment that is the basis for establishing short or long term goal-oriented virtual organizations. The notion of integrated business services, where customers receive some value developed through the contribution from a network of companies is a key element.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A real time pricing approach to deal with excessive wind power situations

The introduction of wind power generation in several countries around the world, including in European countries, where energy policy directives have encouraged the use of renewables, led to several changes in market and power systems operation. The intensive integration of these sources has led to situations in which the demand is lower than the available renewable resources. In these situations a part of the available generation is wasted if not used for storage or to supply additional demand. This paper proposes a real time demand response methodology based on changing the electricity price for the consumers expecting an increase in the demand in the periods in which that demand is lower than the available renewable generation. The consumers response to the changes in electricity price is characterized by their price elasticity of demand considered distinct for each consumer type. The proposed methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL). The renewable-based producers are considered as special producers, with special tariffs, and so it is important to use the energy available as it will be paid anyway. In this context, consumers are entities actively participating in the operation of the market.

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

OC/EC ratio observations in Europe: Re-thinking the approach for apportionment between primary and secondary organic carbon

This study explores a large set of OC and EC measurements in PM(10) and PM(2.5) aerosol samples, undertaken with a long term constant analytical methodology, to evaluate the capability of the OC/EC minimum ratio to represent the ratio between the OC and EC aerosol components resulting from fossil fuel combustion (OC(ff)/EC(ff)). The data set covers a wide geographical area in Europe, but with a particular focus upon Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, and includes a great variety of sites: urban (background, kerbside and tunnel), industrial, rural and remote. The highest minimum ratios were found in samples from remote and rural sites. Urban background sites have shown spatially and temporally consistent minimum ratios, of around 1.0 for PM(10) and 0.7 for PM(2.5).The consistency of results has suggested that the method could be used as a tool to derive the ratio between OC and EC from fossil fuel combustion and consequently to differentiate OC from primary and secondary sources. To explore this capability, OC and EC measurements were performed in a busy roadway tunnel in central Lisbon. The OC/EC ratio, which reflected the composition of vehicle combustion emissions, was in the range of 03-0.4. Ratios of OC/EC in roadside increment air (roadside minus urban background) in Birmingham, UK also lie within the range 03-0.4. Additional measurements were performed under heavy traffic conditions at two double kerbside sites located in the centre of Lisbon and Madrid. The OC/EC minimum ratios observed at both sites were found to be between those of the tunnel and those of urban background air, suggesting that minimum values commonly obtained for this parameter in open urban atmospheres over-predict the direct emissions of OC(ff) from road transport. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are explored. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.