Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Frequency-Dependent Viscosity of Membrane Solutions

It is shown that dilute suspensions of membranes have strongly frequency-dependent viscosities. This behaviour should be seen in a variety of measurements such as capillary flow, mechanical impedance and ultrasound damping.

SC-FDMA versus OFDMA: Sensitivity to Large Carrier Frequency and Timing Offsets on the Uplink

In this paper, we present a comparison between the sensitivity of SC-FDMA and OFDMA schemes to large carrier frequency offsets (CFO) and timing offsets (TO) of different users on the uplink. Our study shows the following observations: 1) In the ideal case of zero CFOs and TOs (i.e., perfect synchronization), the uncoded BER performance of SC-FDMA with frequency domain MMSE equalizer is better than that of OFDMA due to the inherent frequency diversity that is possible in SCFDMA. Also, because of inter-symbol interference in SC-FDMA, the performance of SC-FDMA with MMSE equalizer can be further improved by using low-complexity interference cancellation (IC) techniques. 2) In the presence of large CFOs and TOs, significant multiuser interference (MUI) gets introduced, and hence the performance of SC-FDMA with MMSE equalizer can get worse than that of OFDMA. However, the performance advantage of SC-FDMA with MMSE equalizer over OFDMA (due to the potential for frequency diversity benefit in SC-FDMA) can be restored by adopting multistage IC techniques, using the knowledge of CFOs and TOs of different users at the receiver

Diesel Engine Driven Stand-Alone Variable Speed Constant Frequency Slip Ring Induction Generator - Theory and Experimental Results

The operation of a stand-alone, as opposed to grid connected generation system, using a slip-ring induction machine as the electrical generator, is considered. In contrast to an alternator, a slip-ring induction machine can run at variable speed and still deliver constant frequency power to loads. This feature enables optimization of the system when the prime mover is inherently variable speed in nature eg. wind turbines, as well as diesel driven systems, where there is scope for economizing on fuel consumption. Experimental results from a system driven by a 44 bhp diesel engine are presented. Operation at subsynchronous as well as super-synchronous speeds is examined. The measurement facilitates the understanding of the system as well as its design.

Activityscape Mapping: Consumer Activity Systems as Service Context

Activity systems are the cognitively linked groups of activities that consumers carry out as a part of their daily life. The aim of this paper is to investigate how consumers experience value through their activities, and how services fit into the context of activity systems. A new technique for illustrating consumers’ activity systems is introduced. The technique consists of identifying a consumer’s activities through an interview, then quantitatively measuring how the consumer evaluates the identified activities on three dimensions: Experienced benefits, sacrifices and frequency. This information is used to create a graphical representation of the consumer’s activity system, an “activityscape map”. Activity systems work as infrastructure for the individual consumer’s value experience. The paper contributes to value and service literature, where there currently are no clearly described standardized techniques for visually mapping out individual consumer activity. Existing approaches are service- or relationship focused, and are mostly used to identify activities, not to understand them. The activityscape representation provides an overview of consumers’ perceptions of their activity patterns and the position of one or several services in this pattern. Comparing different consumers’ activityscapes, it shows the differences between consumers' activity structures, and provides insight into how services are used to create value within them. The paper is conceptual; an empirical illustration is used to indicate the potential in further empirical studies. The technique can be used by businesses to understand contexts for service use, which may uncover potential for business reconfiguration and customer segmentation.

Molecular structure-activity relationship study of some non-steroidal antiinflammatory agents using electrostatic potential mapping

A series of 6,11-dihydro-11-oxodibenz[b,e]oxepin-2-acetic acids (DOAA) which are known to be anti-inflammatory agents were studied. The geometries of some of the molecules obtained from X-ray crystallography were used in the calculations as such while the geometries of their derivatives were obtained by local, partial geometry optimization around the Sites of substitution employing the AMI method, keeping the remaining parts of the geometries the same as those in the parent molecules. Molecular electrostatic potential (MEP) mapping was performed for the molecules using optimized hybridization displacement charges (HDC) combined with Lowdin charges, as this charge distribution has been shown earlier to yield near ab initio quality results. A good correlation has been found between the MEP values near the oxygen atoms of the hydroxyl groups of the carboxy groups of the molecules and their anti-inflammatory activities. The result is broadly in agreement with the model proposed earlier by other authors regarding the structure-activity relationship for other similar molecules.

Stock Option Compensation in Finland: An Analysis of Economic Determinants, Contracting Frequency, and Design

This paper addresses several questions in the compensation literature by examining stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms. First, the results indicate that principal-agent theory succeeds quite well in predicting the use of stock options. Proxies for monitoring costs, growth opportunities, ownership structure, and risk are found to determine the use of incentives consistent with theory. Furthermore, the paper examines whether determinants of stock options targeted to top management differ from determinants of broad-based stock option plans. Some evidence is found that factors driving these two types of incentives differ. Second, the results reveal that systematic risk significantly increases the likelihood that firms adopt stock option plans, whereas total firm risk and unsystematic risk do not seem to affect this decision. Third, the results show that growth opportunities are related to time-dimensional contracting frequency, consistent with the argument that incentive levels deviate more rapidly from optimum in firms with high growth opportunities. Finally, the results suggest that vesting schedules are decreasing in financial leverage, and that contract maturity is decreasing in firm focus. In addition, both vesting schedules and contract maturity tend to be longer in firms involving state ownership.

Impedance‐frequency characteristics of metal‐oxide‐semiconductor structures on polycrystalline silicon

This paper reports the variations in impedance with frequency of metal‐oxide‐semiconductor (MOS) structures on polycrystalline silicon. The origin of these impedance‐frequency characteristics are qualitatively explained. These characteristics indicate that the MOS structure on polycrystalline silicon can be exploited to realize voltage controlled filters.

Host-parasitoid relationship in different Cotesia melitaearum and Melitaea cinxia populations around the Baltic Sea

The relationship between hosts and parasites is one of the most studied interactions between living organisms, and it is both universal and common in nature. Parasitoids are special type of parasites whose offspring develop attached to or within a single host organism that it ultimately consumes and kills. Hosts are arthropods and most parasitoids belong to the insect order Hymenoptera. For almost two decades metapopulation research on the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) has been conducted in the Åland Islands, Finland. The studies have been concerned with the population dynamics, evolution, genetics, behavior, natural history and life history characteristics of M. cinxia, as well as with species interacting with the butterfly. The parasitoids of M. cinxia have been under long term studies and much has been learned about specific host-parasitoid interactions during the past decade. The research for this Master s thesis was done in the Åland Islands during summer 2010. I conducted a reciprocal transplant style experiment in order to compare the performance of host butterflies (M. cinxia) under attack by different parasitoid wasps (C. melitaearum). I used hosts and parasitoids from five origins around the Baltic Sea: Öland, Uppland, Åland, Saaremaa and Pikku-Tytärsaari. The host-parasitoid relationship was studied in terms of host susceptibility and parasitoid virulence, addressing specifically the possible effects of inbreeding and local adaptation of both parasitoids and their hosts. I compared various factors such as host defence ratio, parasitoid development rate, cocoon production rate etc. I also conducted a small scale C. melitaearum egg development experiment and C. melitaearum external morphology comparison between different parasitoid populations. The results show that host resistance and parasitoid virulence differ between both host and parasitoid populations. For example, Öland hosts were most susceptible to parasitoids and especially vulnerable to Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps. Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps were most successful in terms of parasitoids virulence and efficiency except in Saaremaa hosts, where the wasp did not succeed. Saaremaa hosts were resistant except towards Åland parasitoids. I did not find any simple pattern concerning host resistance and parasitoid virulence between inbred and outbred populations. Also, the effect of local adaptation was not detected, perhaps because metapopulation processes disturb local adaptation of the studied populations. Morphological comparisons showed differences between studied wasp populations and sexual dimorphism was obvious with females being bigger that males. There were also interesting differences among populations in male and female wing shapes. The results raise many further questions. Especially interesting were Pikku-Tytärsaari wasps that did well in terms of efficiency and virulence. Pikku-Tytärsaari is a small, isolated island in the Gulf of Finland and both the host and parasitoids are extremely inbred. For the host and parasitoid to persist in the island, the host has to have some mechanisms to escape the parasitoid. Further research will be done on the subject to discover the mechanisms of Pikku-Tytärsaari host s ability to escape parasitism. Also, genetic analyses will be conducted in the near future to determine the relatedness of used C. melitaearum populations.

The elastic manifestation of a spin-glass transition: a low-frequency study

The authors report here the first measurements of low-frequency dynamic elastic properties of a spin glass (Fe59Ni21Cr20) across the transition temperature (Tg approximately=16 K). A minimum in the sound velocity (V) and a maximum in the internal friction (Q-1) were found at temperatures close to but below Tg. The elastic data were compared with the AC susceptibility data taken at similar frequency.