Serial heart rate changes in rats inoculated by conjunctival instillation of Trypanosoma cruzi obtained from bug faeces

The cardiac effects of experimentally induced myocarditis, when the parasite is obtained from mouse blood, are well known. However, the consequences of the infection when the parasites are obtained from bug faeces are less well defined. In the present investigation, we have used the "Y" strain of Trypanosoma cruzi, which was maintained in Rhodnius prolixus by repeated passages in mice. The faeces of 30 infected bugs were collected, the number of parasites counted and 4,000 parasites inoculated by the conjunctival route in 60 rats. Twenty-nine other rats received faeces from noninfected bugs (sham-inoculated controls) and 40 were used as normal controls. The heart rate of the three groups of animals was recorded under general anesthesia with ether. The heart rate, at day 0 pre-inoculation, was similar in the three groups of animals (Controls: 379 ± 27 beats/min Mean ± SD; Sham-inoculated: 366 ± 31; Infected: 351 ± 29) (p> 0.05). In the infected animals, the mean heart rate began to increase significantly by day 12 following infection (375 ± 31), reaching the highest values between days 18 (390 ± 33) and 21 (403 ± 33) and returned to baseline by day 30 (359 ± 28) (p< 0.05). The heart rate changes were statistically different from those observed in the sham-inoculated controls and in the control animals. Therefore, these heart rate changes were provoked by the Trypanosoma cruzi-induced infection. Thus, it appears that irrespective of the source of the parasite and route of inoculation Trypanosoma cruziacute infection provokes a transient sinus tachycardia.

Acredita Portugal: How to improve the implementation rate of entrepreneurial projects?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Acute liver failure in children: observations in Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil

In this communication we report 46 cases of acute liver failure in children diagnosed at the Hospital Infantil Nossa Senhora da Glória in Vitória, E Santo. Serology for IgM anti-HAV, IgM anti-HBc, HbsAg, anti-HCV and biochemical tests were performed in all cases in a routine laboratory. The M/F ratio was 1.1:1 and the mean age was 4.7±3.2 years, without gender difference. Anti-HAV IgM+ in 38 (82.6%) cases, anti-HbcIgM+ in two (4.3 %) cases and 6 (13.1%) cases were negative for all viral markers investigated. Anti- HCV+ in one anti-HAV IgM+ case. HbsAg+ in two anti-HbcIgM+ and in two HAVIgM+ cases. Among the six A, B and C negative cases, four (8.6%) did not have the suspected exogenous intoxication. Mortality was 50%, without gender or age differences. These results demonstrate that HAV infection is the main etiology of acute liver failure in children in Brazil, confirming that, although it is a self limited, relatively mild illness, it can cause serious and even fatal disease. The observation of four cases without A, B and C viral markers and no history of exogenous intoxication, agree with the observation of non A-E acute sporadic hepatitis in Northeastern Brazil.

Characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV seropositive and seronegative patients in a Northeastern region of Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyse the clinical, epidemiological and bacteriological features present in 60 pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were also infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to compare these with 120 TB patients who were not infected with HIV. The patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV coinfection were mostly male (p = 0.001), showed a higher frequency of weight loss >10 kilos (p <0.001), had a higher rate of non-reaction result to the tuberculin skin test (p <0.001), a higher frequency of negative sputum smear examination for acid-fast bacilli (p = 0.001) and negative sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (p = 0.001). Treatment failure was more common in those who were HIV positive (p <0.000). No higher frequency of resistance to antituberculosis drugs was found to be associated with TB/HIV coinfection (p = 0.407). Association between extrapulmonary and pulmonary tuberculosis was more frequent in those seropositive to HIV than those without HIV virus, 30% and 1.6% respectively. These findings showed a predominance of atypical clinical laboratory features in co-infected patients, and suggest that health care personnel should consider the possibility this diagnosis.

Fulminant hepatic failure in children and adolescents in Northern Brazil

The histological findings of fulminant hepatic failure were correlated to the demographic, clinical, biochemical and virological features in children and adolescents, native to the Amazonas State in Northern Brazil. 96.2% had evidence of infection by primary hepatotrophic viruses. Histological analysis revealed three distinct patterns of fulminant hepatic failure.

Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Differing phagocytic function of monocytes and neutrophils in Chagas' cardiopathy according to the presence or absence of congestive heart failure

We evaluated the in vitro phagocytic function and the production of microbicidal oxygen radicals by monocytes and neutrophils of 9 Chagas' heart disease subjects with heart failure and 9 without the syndrome in comparison with 11 healthy subjects, by assessing phagocytosis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and NBT reduction by peripheral blood phagocytes. Phagocytic index of monocytes of chagasics without heart failure was significantly 6.7 and 10.6 times lower than those of controls and chagasics with the congestive syndrome, respectively, due to a lesser engagement in phagocytosis and to an inability of these cells to ingest particles. Neutrophils also show in chagasics without heart failure PI 11.2 and 19.8 times lower than that of controls and chagasics with heart failure, respectively. The percent of NBT reduction was normal and similar for the three groups. Balanced opposite effects of cardiovascular and immune disturbances may be acting in Chagas' disease subjects with heart failure paradoxically recovering the altered phagocytic function.

Immunotherapy, immunochemotherapy and chemotherapy for American cutaneous leishmaniasis treatment

The first choice of treatment for American cutaneous leishmaniasis is the pentavalent antimonial drug. Although it has been shown that this treatment is mostly effective and indicated, some disadvantages should be taken into account such as side effects, long term treatment inconveniences and counter-indication for patients suffering from cardiopathy, nephropathy; yet, aging, pregnancy and other conditions. With the advent of the vaccine anti-American cutaneous leishmaniasis as a prophylactic measure, studies on therapy using the vaccine associated or not with other drugs have been performed by many investigators and it is currently among the alternative treatments and prevention measures for American cutaneous leishmaniasis. In conclusion, the association between antimony and vaccine (immunochemotherapy) showed the same cure rate when compared with the standard treatment (100%) and it was also able to reduce the salt volume in 17.9% and treatment length from 87 to 62 days, decreasing side effects.

The effect of key process operational conditions on enhanced biological phosphorus removal from wastewater

Enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) is the most economic and sustainable option used in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for phosphorus removal. In this process it is important to control the competition between polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs), since EBPR deterioration or failure can be related with the proliferation of GAOs over PAOs. This thesis is focused on the effect of operational conditions (volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and organic carbon loading) on PAO and GAO metabolism. The knowledge about the effect of these operational conditions on EBPR metabolism is very important, since they represent key factors that impact WWTPs performance and sustainability. Substrate competition between the anaerobic uptake of acetate and propionate (the main VFAs present in WWTPs) was shown in this work to be a relevant factor affecting PAO metabolism, and a metabolic model was developed that successfully describes this effect. Interestingly, the aerobic metabolism of PAOs was not affected by different VFA compositions, since the aerobic kinetic parameters for phosphorus uptake, polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) degradation and glycogen production were relatively independent of acetate or propionate concentration. This is very relevant for WWTPs, since it will simplify the calibration procedure for metabolic models, facilitating their use for full-scale systems. The DO concentration and aerobic hydraulic retention time (HRT) affected the PAO-GAO competition, where low DO levels or lower aerobic HRT was more favourable for PAOs than GAOs. Indeed, the oxygen affinity coefficient was significantly higher for GAOs than PAOs, showing that PAOs were far superior at scavenging for the often limited oxygen levels in WWTPs. The operation of WWTPs with low aeration is of high importance for full-scale systems, since it decreases the energetic costs and can potentially improve WWTP sustainability. Extended periods of low organic carbon load, which are the most common conditions that exist in full-scale WWTPs, also had an impact on PAO and GAO activity. GAOs exhibited a substantially higher biomass decay rate as compared to PAOs under these conditions, which revealed a higher survival capacity for PAOs, representing an advantage for PAOs in EBPR processes. This superior survival capacity of PAOs under conditions more closely resembling a full-scale environment was linked with their ability to maintain a residual level of PHA reserves for longer than GAOs, providing them with an effective energy source for aerobic maintenance processes. Overall, this work shows that each of these key operational conditions play an important role in the PAO-GAO competition and should be considered in WWTP models in order to improve EBPR processes.

Evaluation of the six-minute walk test in patients with chronic heart failure associated with Chagas' disease and systemic arterial hypertension

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate physical capacity as determined by the six-minute walk test (6MWT) in patients with chronic heart failure due to Chagas' disease associated with systemic arterial hypertension (Chagas-SAH). METHODS: A total of 98 patients routinely followed at the Cardiomyopathy Outpatient Service were recruited. Of these, 60 (61%) were diagnosed with Chagas disease and 38 (39%) with Chagas-SAH. RESULTS: The distance walked during 6 min was 357.9 ±98 m for Chagas-SAH patients and 395.8 ± 121m for Chagas cardiomyopathy patients (p >0.05). In patients with Chagas-SAH, a negative correlation occurred between the 6MWT and the total score of the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (r= -0.51; p=0.001). No other correlations were determined between 6MWT values and continuous variables in patients with Chagas-SAH. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the 6MWT in Chagas-SAH patients are similar to those verified in Chagas cardiomyopathy patients with chronic heart failure. Coexistence of SAH does not seem to affect the functional capacity of Chagas cardiomyopathy patients with chronic heart failure.

Digoxin serum levels in patients with Chagas' cardiomyopathy and heart failure

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to determine digoxin serum concentrations in patients with Chagas' cardiomyopathy with chronic heart failure, because little is known concerning this laboratory test in patients with this condition. METHODS: This study focuses on 29 (29%) out of 101 patients with chronic heart failure secondary to Chagas' cardiomyopathy receiving digoxin therapy. Digoxin was measured by the immune-enzymatic method. RESULTS: New York Heart Association Functional Class III/IV was noted in 13 (45%) patients. The mean potassium serum level was 4.3± 0.5mEq/L, mean creatinine serum levels 1.4± 0.3dg/100ml, and left ventricular ejection fraction 34.7± 13.8%. The median digoxin serum level was 1.27 (0.55; 1.79)ng/ml. Sixteen (55%) patients had digoxin serum levels higher than 1.0ng/ml. Abnormal digoxin serum levels were verified in 13 (45%) patients. Digoxin serum levels correlated moderately with creatinine serum levels (r = 0.39; p< 0.03) and negatively with sodium serum levels (r= -0.38; p= 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Digoxin serum concentration should be measured in patients with Chagas' cardiomyopathy with chronic heart failure receiving digoxin therapy due to the potential for digoxin toxicity.

Study of salt stress tolerance in spelt

World population is increasing at an alarming rate while food productivity is decreasing due to the effect of various abiotic stresses. Soil salinity is one of the most important abiotic stress and a limiting factor for worldwide plant production. In addition to its important effects on yield, salt stress affects numerous cellular activities, including cell wall composition, photosynthesis, protein synthesis, ions and organic solutes. Up to 20% of the irrigated arable land in arid and semiarid regions is already salt affected and is still expanding. Improving salt tolerant varieties is of major importance, and efforts should be focused on finding adaptive mechanisms which are involved in salinity tolerance. In this study, several spelt wheat (Triticum aestivum var. Spelta) genotypes and one cultivar of modern bread wheat were used to screen them for salt tolerance. Spelt is an old-European cereal crop currently attracting renewed interest as a food grain because it is said to be harder than wheat and requires less fertilizer. Spelt wheat is also becoming very attractive genetic source by plant breeders due to its wide adaptation ability to various stressful conditions such as soil salinity. In this study morphological parameters (e.g., leaf appearance; shoot elongation), dry matter production, mineral nutrients (especially Na and K), and activity of antioxidative enzymes were measured to select superior genotypes of spelt for salt tolerance. The results showed that Spelt genotype Sp41 is a salt sensitive genotype and genotypes Sp69, Sp96 and Sp912 are good candidates for salt tolerant genotypes.

Relação entre o consumo de medicamentos do aparelho cardiovascular e os internamentos

RESUMO - Objetivos: Caracterizar a evolução do consumo de medicamentos da área cardiovascular entre 2002 e 2011. Caracterizar a evolução dos internamentos com diagnóstico principal cardiovascular, da taxa de mortalidade intra-hospitalar e da idade média dos doentes no episódio de internamento. Estabelecer relação entre o consumo de medicamentos e os episódios de internamento. Metodologia: Por consulta à base de dados do Infarmed, determinar a evolução do consumo de medicamentos por distrito de Portugal continental, medido em embalagens consumidas/1000 habitantes. Por consulta à base de dados de GDH, determinar a evolução do nº de internamentos por doença cardiovascular dos residentes em cada distrito, determinado em internamentos/1000 habitantes. Determinar a evolução da taxa de mortalidade dos episódios, avaliada em mortes/ 100 episódios. Determinar a evolução da idade média. Correlação estatística entre o consumo e nº internamentos, mortalidade e idade. Regressão linear simples entre o consumo e nº internamentos, mortalidade e idade. Resultados: O consumo de cardiotónicos e antiarrítmicos diminuiu, -26,45% e -16,48%, respetivamente. O consumo de anti hipertensores, vasodilatadores e antidislipidémicos aumentou, respetivamente, 78,73%; 11,18% e 180,91%. A incidência de EAM aumentou 0,03%, a de IC 0,97% e a de AVC diminuiu -21,42%. A mortalidade diminuiu para EAM, IC e AVC, respetivamente, -31,48%; -18,03% e -15,06%. A idade média de ocorrência de EAM manteve-se, a de IC aumentou 2,2 anos e a de AVC aumentou 1,5 anos. 23,9% da variação da incidência de AVC pode ser explicada pelo consumo. A variação da taxa de mortalidade por EAM, IC e AVC que pode ser explicada pelo consumo é de 30,9%; 13,0% e 32,9%. O consumo explica 48,3% e 73,5%, da variação da idade média de ocorrência de internamentos por IC e AVC, respetivamente. Os anti hipertensores e os antidislipidémicos são as subclasses com correlação estatisticamente significativa mais relevante com a diminuição da taxa de mortalidade e aumento da idade média. Conclusão: O consumo explica sensivelmente 50% do aumento da idade média, e em menor percentagem a evolução do nº de internamentos e da taxa de mortalidade. As subclasses dos anti hipertensores e dos antidislipidémicos são as principais responsáveis pelo aumento do consumo, mas também são as que tem correlação estatisticamente significativa mais forte com os ganhos em saúde.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.