Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Investigating the potential of Shikonin, a Chinese herbal medicine, as a novel scar remediation therapy

This project investigates for the first time the biological mechanisms underlying the anecdotal use of Shikonin, an active component extracted from the Chinese herbal medicine "Zi Cao", as a treatment for hypertrophic scars. Compelling molecular and cellular evidence was generated supporting the therapeutic value of Shikonin as a scar treatment, suggesting that further development of this agent is warranted.

A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Process Analytical Technology Approach on Fluid Bed Granulation and Drying : Identifying Critical Relationships and Constructing the Design Space

Fluid bed granulation is a key pharmaceutical process which improves many of the powder properties for tablet compression. Dry mixing, wetting and drying phases are included in the fluid bed granulation process. Granules of high quality can be obtained by understanding and controlling the critical process parameters by timely measurements. Physical process measurements and particle size data of a fluid bed granulator that are analysed in an integrated manner are included in process analytical technologies (PAT). Recent regulatory guidelines strongly encourage the pharmaceutical industry to apply scientific and risk management approaches to the development of a product and its manufacturing process. The aim of this study was to utilise PAT tools to increase the process understanding of fluid bed granulation and drying. Inlet air humidity levels and granulation liquid feed affect powder moisture during fluid bed granulation. Moisture influences on many process, granule and tablet qualities. The approach in this thesis was to identify sources of variation that are mainly related to moisture. The aim was to determine correlations and relationships, and utilise the PAT and design space concepts for the fluid bed granulation and drying. Monitoring the material behaviour in a fluidised bed has traditionally relied on the observational ability and experience of an operator. There has been a lack of good criteria for characterising material behaviour during spraying and drying phases, even though the entire performance of a process and end product quality are dependent on it. The granules were produced in an instrumented bench-scale Glatt WSG5 fluid bed granulator. The effect of inlet air humidity and granulation liquid feed on the temperature measurements at different locations of a fluid bed granulator system were determined. This revealed dynamic changes in the measurements and enabled finding the most optimal sites for process control. The moisture originating from the granulation liquid and inlet air affected the temperature of the mass and pressure difference over granules. Moreover, the effects of inlet air humidity and granulation liquid feed rate on granule size were evaluated and compensatory techniques used to optimize particle size. Various end-point indication techniques of drying were compared. The ∆T method, which is based on thermodynamic principles, eliminated the effects of humidity variations and resulted in the most precise estimation of the drying end-point. The influence of fluidisation behaviour on drying end-point detection was determined. The feasibility of the ∆T method and thus the similarities of end-point moisture contents were found to be dependent on the variation in fluidisation between manufacturing batches. A novel parameter that describes behaviour of material in a fluid bed was developed. Flow rate of the process air and turbine fan speed were used to calculate this parameter and it was compared to the fluidisation behaviour and the particle size results. The design space process trajectories for smooth fluidisation based on the fluidisation parameters were determined. With this design space it is possible to avoid excessive fluidisation and improper fluidisation and bed collapse. Furthermore, various process phenomena and failure modes were observed with the in-line particle size analyser. Both rapid increase and a decrease in granule size could be monitored in a timely manner. The fluidisation parameter and the pressure difference over filters were also discovered to express particle size when the granules had been formed. The various physical parameters evaluated in this thesis give valuable information of fluid bed process performance and increase the process understanding.

Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Morphological Characteristics of Genetically-Modified Pineapple Fruit

Genetic engineering is an attractive method for changing a single characteristic of ‘Smooth Cayenne’ pineapple, without altering its other desirable attributes. Techniques used in pineapple transformation, however, such as tissue culture and biolistic-mediated or Agrobacterium-mediated gene insertion are prone to somaclonal variation, resulting in the production of several morphological mutations (Smith et al., 2002). Fruit mutations can include distortion in fruit shape (round ball, conical, fan-shaped), reduced fruit size, multiple crowns, crownless fruit, fruitless crowns, and spiny crown leaves (Dalldorf, 1975; Sanewski et al., 1992). The present paper describes the variability in fruit-shape mutations between transgenic and non-transgenic fruit, and its subsequent impact on organoleptic characteristics.

Inverse Correlation between Vitamin D and C-Reactive Protein in Newborns

Some studies suggested that adequate vitamin D might reduce inflammation in adults. However, little is known about this association in early life. We aimed to determine the relationship between cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in neonates. Cord blood levels of 25(OH)D and CRP were measured in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. Potential confounders including maternal sociodemographic characteristics, perinatal health status, lifestyle, and birth outcomes were prospectively collected. The average values of cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP were 39.43 nmol/L (SD = 20.35) and 6.71 mg/L (SD = 3.07), respectively. Stratified by 25(OH)D levels, per 10 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, CRP decreased by 1.42 mg/L (95% CI: 0.90, 1.95) among neonates with 25(OH)D <25.0 nmol/L, and decreased by 0.49 mg/L (95% CI: 0.17, 0.80) among neonates with 25(OH)D between 25.0 nmol/L and 49.9 nmol/L, after adjusting for potential confounders. However, no significant association between 25(OH)D and CRP was observed among neonates with 25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/L. Cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP levels showed a significant seasonal trend with lower 25(OH)D and higher CRP during winter-spring than summer-autumn. Stratified by season, a significant linear association of 25(OH)D with CRP was observed in neonates born in winter-spring (adjusted β = −0.11, 95% CI: −0.13, −0.10), but not summer-autumn. Among neonates born in winter-spring, neonates with 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L had higher risk of CRP ≥10 mg/L (adjusted OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 2.00, 4.69), compared to neonates with 25(OH)D ≥25 nmol/L. Neonates with vitamin D deficiency had higher risk of exposure to elevated inflammation at birth.

Football supporter cultures in modern-day Brazil: Hypercommodification, networked collectivisms and digital productivity

This thesis analyses the implications for football cultures of the profound socio-economic changes that Brazil has experienced in the last decade. It explores two major impacts: the economic boom of the domestic football sector, and the large-scale adoption of new technologies in fans' activities. The study identified a new phase of football culture in Brazil, characterised by the domination of market logics and intense commercialisation. The empirical findings also showed that new technologies are changing how supporters coordinate activities that challenge the gentrification of the game.

Phosphine fumigation of silo bags.

Fumigation with phosphine has the potential to disinfest grain stored in silo bags but only limited research has been conducted on whether phosphine fumigation can be undertaken effectively and safely in this form of storage. Fumigation with phosphine was tested on two (70 m) replicate silo bags each containing 240 t of wheat (9.9 and 9.2% m.c.). The target application rate of phosphine was 1.5 g m 3 with a fumigation period of 17 days. Aluminium phosphide tablets were inserted into each bag at ten release points spaced at 7 m intervals starting 3.5 m from either end of the bag. A total of 14 bioassay cages containing mixed age populations of strongly phosphine resistant Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) were inserted into each fumigated silo bag. Complete control of all life stages of R. dominica was achieved at all locations in the fumigated silo bags. Phosphine concentrations at release points increased rapidly and remained high for the duration of the fumigation. Concentrations at midway points were always lower than at the release points but exceeded 215 ppm for ten days. The diffusion coefficient of available phosphine averaged over the first three full days of the fumigation for both fumigated silo bags was 2.8 x 10 7. Venting the silo bag with an aeration fan reduced the phosphine concentration by 99% after 12 h. Relatively small amounts of phosphine continued to desorb after the venting period. Although grain temperature at the core of the silo bags remained stable at 29degreesC for 17 days, grain at the surface of the silo bags fluctuated daily with a mean of 29degreesC. The results demonstrate that silo bags can be fumigated with phosphine for complete control of infestations of strongly phosphine resistant R. dominica and potentially other species.

Amyloid diseases at old age : a pathological, epidemiological, and genetic study

Along with the increased life span of individuals, the burden of old age-associated diseases has inevitably increased. Alzheimer s disease (AD), probably the most well known geriatric disease, belongs to the old age-associated amyloid diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency, genetic and health-associated risk factors, mutual association, and amyloid proteins in two old age-associated amyloid disorders senile systemic amyloidosis (SSA) and cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) as part of the prospective population-based Vantaa 85+ autopsy study on a Finnish population aged 85 years or more (Studies I-III), completed with a case report on a patient with advanced AGel amyloidosis (Study IV). The numbers of patients investigated in the studies (I-III) were 256, 74, and 63, respectively. The diagnosis and grading of amyloid were based upon histological examination of tissue samples obtained post mortem and stained with Congo red. The amyloid fibril and associated proteins were characterized by immunohistochemical staining methods. The genotype frequencies of 20 polymorphisms in 9 genes and information on health-associated risk factors in subjects with and without SSA and CAA were compared. In a Finnish population ≥ 95 years of age, SSA and CAA occurred in 36% and 49% of the subjects, respectively. In total, two-thirds of these very elderly individuals had SSA, CAA, or both. However, in only 14% of the population these two conditions co-occurred. In subjects 85 years or older, the prevalence of SSA was 25%. In this population, SSA was associated with age at the time of death (p=0.002), myocardial infarctions (MIs; p=0.004), the G/G (Val/Val) genotype of the exon 24 polymorphism in the alpha2-macroglobulin (α2M) gene (p=0.042) and with the H2 haplotype of the tau gene (p=0.016). In contrast, the presence of CAA was strongly associated with APOE e4 (p=0.0003), with histopathological AD (p=0.0005), and with clinical dementia (p=0.01) in both e4+ (p=0.02) and e4- (p=0.06) individuals. Apart from demonstrating the amyloid fibril proteins, complement proteins 3d (C3d) and 9 (C9) were detected in the amyloid deposits of CAA and AGel amyloidosis, and α2M protein was found in fibrous scar tissue close to SSA. In conclusion, this first population based study on SSA shows that both SSA and CAA are common in very elderly individuals. Old age, MIs, the exon 24 polymorphism of the α2M gene, and H1/H2 polymorphism of the tau gene associate with SSA while clinical dementia and APOE ε4 genotype associate with CAA. The high prevalence of CAA, combined with its association with clinical dementia independent of APOE genotype, neuropathological AD, or SSA, also highlights its clinical significance in the very aged, among which the serious end stage complications of CAA, namely multiple infarctions and hemorrhages, are rare. The report on a patient having advanced AGel amyloidosis added knowledge on the disease and showed that this generally benign condition occasionally may lead to death. Further studies are warranted to confirm the findings in other populations. Also, the role of α2M and tau in the pathogenesis of SSA and the involvement of complement in the process of amyloid beta (Aβ) protein elimination from the brain remain to be clarified. Finally, the high prevalence of SSA in the elderly raises the need for prospective clinical studies to define its clinical significance.

Cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D and fetal growth in the China-Anhui birth cohort study

We determined the association of cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with birth weight and the risk of small for gestational age (SGA). As part of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort (C-ABC) study, we measured cord blood levels of 25(OH)D in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. The data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics, health status, lifestyle, birth outcomes were prospectively collected. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association of 25(OH)D levels with birth weight and the risk of SGA. Compared with neonates in the lowest decile of cord blood 25(OH)D levels, neonates in four deciles (the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh deciles) had significantly increased birth weight and decreased risk of SGA. Multiple linear regression models showed that per 10 nmol/L increase in cord blood 25(OH)D, birth weight increased by 61.0 g (95% CI: 31.9, 89.9) at concentrations less than 40 nmol/L, and then decreased by 68.5 g (95% CI: −110.5, −26.6) at concentrations from 40 to 70 nmol/L. This study provides the first epidemiological evidence that there was an inverted U shaped relationship between neonatal vitamin D status and fetal growth, and the risk of SGA reduced at moderate concentration.