Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity & quality of service assessment

This study uses weekday Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia •Stochastic analysis is compared to peak hour factor (PHF) analysis for insight into passenger loading variability •Hourly design load factor (e.g. 88th percentile) is found to be a useful method of modeling a segment’s passenger demand time-history across a study weekday, for capacity and QoS assessment •Hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is found to be a useful QoS and operational assessment measure, particularly through its relationship with hourly average load factor, and with design load factor •An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed from the case study

Conformational Spread in the Flagellar Motor Switch: A Model Study

The reliable response to weak biological signals requires that they be amplified with fidelity. In E. coli, the flagellar motors that control swimming can switch direction in response to very small changes in the concentration of the signaling protein CheY-P, but how this works is not well understood. A recently proposed allosteric model based on cooperative conformational spread in a ring of identical protomers seems promising as it is able to qualitatively reproduce switching, locked state behavior and Hill coefficient values measured for the rotary motor. In this paper we undertook a comprehensive simulation study to analyze the behavior of this model in detail and made predictions on three experimentally observable quantities: switch time distribution, locked state interval distribution, Hill coefficient of the switch response. We parameterized the model using experimental measurements, finding excellent agreement with published data on motor behavior. Analysis of the simulated switching dynamics revealed a mechanism for chemotactic ultrasensitivity, in which cooperativity is indispensable for realizing both coherent switching and effective amplification. These results showed how cells can combine elements of analog and digital control to produce switches that are simultaneously sensitive and reliable. © 2012 Ma et al.

Depressive symptoms and adverse outcomes from hospitalization in older adults : secondary outcomes of a trial of falls prevention education

Depression is common in older people and symptoms of depression are known to substantially increase during hospitalization. There is little known about predictors of depressive symptoms in older adults or impact of common interventions during hospitalization. This study aimed to describe the magnitude of depressive symptoms, shift of depressive symptoms and the impact of the symptoms of depression among older hospital patients during hospital admission and identify whether exposure to falls prevention education affected symptoms of depression. Participants (n = 1206) were older adults admitted within two Australian hospitals, the majority of participants completed the Geriatric Depression Scale – Short Form (GDS) at admission (n = 1168). Participants’ mean age was 74.7 (±SD 11) years and 47% (n = 551) were male. At admission 53% (619 out of 1168) of participants had symptoms of clinical depression and symptoms remained at the same level at discharge for 55% (543 out of 987). Those exposed to the low intensity education program had higher GDS scores at discharge than those in the control group (low intensity vs control n = 652, adjusted regression coefficient (95% CI) = 0.24 (0.02, 0.45), p = 0.03). The only factor other than admission level of depression that affected depressive symptoms change was if the participant was worried about falling. Older patients frequently present with symptoms of clinical depression on admission to hospital. Future research should consider these factors, whether these are modifiable and whether treatment may influence outcomes.

Examination of the properties of IMRT and VMAT beams and evaluation against pre-treatment quality assurance results

This study aimed to provide a detailed evaluation and comparison of a range of modulated beam evaluation metrics, in terms of their correlation with QA testing results and their variation between treatment sites, for a large number of treatments. Ten metrics including the modulation index (MI), fluence map complexity (FMC), modulation complexity score (MCS), mean aperture displacement (MAD) and small aperture score (SAS) were evaluated for 546 beams from 122 IMRT and VMAT treatment plans targeting the anus, rectum, endometrium, brain, head and neck and prostate. The calculated sets of metrics were evaluated in terms of their relationships to each other and their correlation with the results of electronic portal imaging based quality assurance (QA) evaluations of the treatment beams. Evaluation of the MI, MAD and SAS suggested that beams used in treatments of the anus, rectum, head and neck were more complex than the prostate and brain treatment beams. Seven of the ten beam complexity metrics were found to be strongly correlated with the results from QA testing of the IMRT beams (p < 0.00008). For example, Values of SAS (with MLC apertures narrower than 10 mm defined as “small”) less than 0.2 also identified QA passing IMRT beams with 100% specificity. However, few of the metrics are correlated with the results from QA testing of the VMAT beams, whether they were evaluated as whole 360◦ arcs or as 60◦ sub-arcs. Select evaluation of beam complexity metrics (at least MI, MCS and SAS) is therefore recommended, as an intermediate step in the IMRT QA chain. Such evaluation may also be useful as a means of periodically reviewing VMAT planning or optimiser performance.

Modelling the BRT station capacity and queuing for all stopping busway operation

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy was used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. We conducted microscopic simulation to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. In the first of two stages, a mathematical model was developed for all stopping buses potential capacity with bus to bus interference and the model was validated. Secondly, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time.

Experiments and experiences with dependability for a large autonomous industrial vehicle

This paper describes the experiences gained performing multiple experiments while developing a large autonomous industrial vehicle. Hot Metal Carriers (HMCs) are large forklift-type vehicles used in the light metals industry to move molten or hot metal around a smelter. Autonomous vehicles of this type must be dependable as they are large and potentially hazardous to infrastructure and people. This paper will talk about four aspects of dependability, that of safety, reliability, availability and security and how they have been addressed on our experimental autonomous HMC.

Exploring how adults who work with young children conceptualise sustainability and describe their practice initiatives

The development of early Childhood Education for Sustainability (ECEfS) practices with young children from birth to eight years is an emerging area in academic and professional literature. ECEfS practices reflect growing awareness of the imperative for twenty-first century societies to respond to the pressures of unsustainable patterns of living. This article contributes to the growing area of ECEfS research by exploring sustainability conceptualisations and practice initiatives as reported by early childhood teachers, educators, pre-service educators and parents in Tasmania. We do this by analysing data collected from participants who attended ECEfS professional learning workshops, entitled Living and learning about sustainability in the early years. Findings show that environmental (nature/natural) aspects of sustainability dominate these adults' practice initiatives and understandings. While many of the reported educational initiatives are to be celebrated, the authors contend that there is much work to be done to extend thinking and practice beyond the natural/environmental dimension in order to embrace holistic notions of sustainability incorporating social, economic and political dimensions.

Prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in Samoan women aged 18 to 29 and assessment of possible risk factors: a community-based study

Background Knowledge about genital Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infections in the Pacific is limited. In this study we investigated CT infection in Samoan women. Methods We recruited women having unprotected sex aged 18 to 29 years from 41 Samoan villages. They completed a questionnaire and provided a urine sample for CT testing by PCR. Associations between CT infection and possible risk factors were explored using logistic regression. Results Altogether, 239 women were recruited; 86 (36.0%; weighted estimate of prevalence: 41.9%; 95% CI: 33.4–50.5%) were positive for CT infection. A higher proportion of women aged 18 to 24 were positive (54/145; 37.2%) than those aged 25 to 29 (32/94; 34.0%; p=0.20). Being single (OR 1.92; 95% CI: 1.02–3.63) and having two or more lifetime sexual partners (OR 3.02; 95% CI: 1.19–7.67) were associated with CT infection; 27.6% of those with one lifetime partner were positive. Participants who had a previous pregnancy were less likely to be positive (OR 0.49; 95% CI: 0.27–0.87). Primiparous and multiparous women were less likely to be positive than nulliparous women (OR 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30–0.99 and OR 0.46; 95% CI: 0.24–0.89, respectively). Conclusions The prevalence of CT infection in these Samoan women is very high. Further studies, including investigating the prevalence of CT infection in men, and strategies for sustainable control are needed.

Field size consistency of nominally matched linacs

Given that there is increasing recognition of the effect that submillimetre changes in collimator position can have on radiotherapy beam dosimetry, this study aimed to evaluate the potential variability in small field collimation that may exist between otherwise matched linacs. Field sizes and field output factors were measured using radiochromic film and an electron diode, for jaw- and MLC-collimated fields produced by eight dosimetrically matched Varian iX linacs (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, USA). This study used nominal sizes from 0.6×0.6 to 10×10 cm215 , for jaw-collimated fields,and from 1×1 to 10×10 cm216 , for MLC-collimated fields, delivered from a zero (head up, beam directed vertically downward) gantry angle. Differences between the field sizes measured for the eight linacs exceeded the uncertainty of the film measurements and the repositioning uncertainty of the jaws and MLCs on one linac. The dimensions of fields defined by MLC leaves were more consistent between linacs, while also differing more from their nominal values than fields defined by orthogonal jaws. The field output factors measured for the different linacs generally increased with increasing measured field size for the nominal 0.6×0.6 and 1×1 cm2 fields, and became consistent between linacs for nominal field sizes of 2×2 cm2 25 and larger. The inclusion in radiotherapy treatment planning system beam data of small field output factors acquired in fields collimated by jaws (rather than the more-reproducible MLCs), associated with either the nominal or the measured field sizes, should be viewed with caution. The size and reproducibility of the fields (especially the small fields) used to acquire treatment planning data should be investigated thoroughly as part of the linac or planning system commissioning process. Further investigation of these issues, using different linac models, collimation systems and beam orientations, is recommended.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Nurses' accountability for stroke quality of care: part one: Review of the literature on nursing-sensitive patient outcomes

Over the past decade, an exciting area of research has emerged that demonstrates strong links between specific nursing care activities and patient outcomes. This body of research has resulted in the identification of a set of "nursing-sensitive outcomes"(NSOs). These NSOs may be interpreted with more meaning when they are linked to evidence-based best practice guidelines, which provide a structured means of ensuring care is consistent among all health care team members, across geographic locations, and across care settings. Uptake of evidence-based best practices at the point of care has been shown to have a measurable positive impact on processes of care and patient outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic, narrative review of the literature regarding the clinical effectiveness of nursing management strategies on stroke patient outcomes sensitive to nursing interventions. Subsequent investigation will explore current applications of nursing-sensitive outcomes to patients with stroke, and identify and validate measurable NSOs within stroke care delivery.

Reliability of point-of-care testing of INR in acute stroke

Background In the emergency department, portable point-of-care testing (POCT) coagulation devices may facilitate stroke patient care by providing rapid International Normalized Ratio (INR) measurement. The objective of this study was to evaluate the reliability, validity, and impact on clinical decision-making of a POCT device for INR testing in the setting of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods A total of 150 patients (50 healthy volunteers, 51 anticoagulated patients, 49 AIS patients) were assessed in a tertiary care facility. The INR's were measured using the Roche Coaguchek S and the standard laboratory technique. Results The interclass correlation coefficient and 95% confidence interval between overall POCT device and standard laboratory value INRs was high (0.932 (0.69 - 0.78). In the AIS group alone, the correlation coefficient and 95% CI was also high 0.937 (0.59 - 0.74) and diagnostic accuracy of the POCT device was 94%. Conclusions When used by a trained health professional in the emergency department to assess INR in acute ischemic stroke patients, the CoaguChek S is reliable and provides rapid results. However, as concordance with laboratory INR values decreases with higher INR values, it is recommended that with CoaguChek S INRs in the > 1.5 range, a standard laboratory measurement be used to confirm the results.

Impact of a stroke unit on length of hospital stay and in-hospital case fatality

Background and Purpose Randomized trials have demonstrated reduced morbidity and mortality with stroke unit care; however, the effect on length of stay, and hence the economic benefit, is less well-defined. In 2001, a multidisciplinary stroke unit was opened at our institution. We observed whether a stroke unit reduces length of stay and in-hospital case fatality when compared to admission to a general neurology/medical ward. Methods A retrospective study of 2 cohorts in the Foothills Medical Center in Calgary was conducted using administrative databases. We compared a cohort of stroke patients managed on general neurology/medical wards before 2001, with a similar cohort of stroke patients managed on a stroke unit after 2003. The length of stay was dichotomized after being centered to 7 days and the Charlson Index was dichotomized for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the length of stay and case fatality in 2 cohorts, adjusted for age, gender, and patient comorbid conditions defined by the Charlson Index. Results Average length of stay for patients on a stroke unit (n=2461) was 15 days vs 19 days for patients managed on general neurology/medical wards (n=1567). The proportion of patients with length of stay >7 days on general neurology/medical wards was 53.8% vs 44.4% on the stroke unit (difference 9.4%; P<0.0001). The adjusted odds of a length of stay >7 days was reduced by 30% (P<0.0001) on a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards. Overall in-hospital case fatality was reduced by 4.5% with stroke unit care. Conclusions We observed a reduced length of stay and reduced in-hospital case-fatality in a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards.